Connecting Climate Change and Conflict
Is there a link between climate change and violent conflict? According to two of the latest reports from Climate Diplomacy, the data on this relationship is ambiguous and often misinterpreted by policymakers.Both of these reports highlight the necessity of looking at all contributing factors to various forms of conflict and climate change. “Climate and Conflict: Reviewing the Statistical Evidence” aims to provide a “brief overview of this research, [discuss] its main findings and [draw] key lessons for policymakers.” This report is intended to assist non-experts in understanding the complexities and nuances of relevant research and data, in order to make more informed decisions.
The second report, entitled “Insurgency, Terrorism, and Organized Crime in a Warming Conflict,” states that the “increasing impacts of climate change do not automatically lead to more fragility and conflict. Rather, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. It interacts and converges with other existing risks and pressures in a given context and can increase the likelihood of fragility or violent conflict.” This report examines four case studies of Non-state armed groups (NSAGs), their patterns of fragility and violence, and their relationship to climate change.