The Naval Postgraduate School & The U.S. Department of Homeland Security

How U.S. Oil Will Affect the World

Marcellus Shale Drill RigThe "Oil Security 2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Abundance" report produced by the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics gives a scenario-based analysis of the future global supply and demand for oil. The Commission relays the more than monetary price of America's oil dependency in graphs depicting oil supply disruptions such as the Suez Crisis, Hurricane Katrina, and the Venezuela Strike. The main goal of the analysis was to identify the effects increased U.S. oil production will have on the rest of the world. "Results of this analysis show that the global impacts of rising U.S. oil production depend greatly upon the assumptions" regarding supply and demand. The many "wildcards" presented could swing toward supply or demand and therefore are difficult to predict. 

The Commission provides policy recommendations and highlights the "most important potential implications for U.S. policymakers." "Oil Security 2025" organizes the policy recommendations into sections - Global, Middle East, China, and Domestic - in order to focus on areas where the U.S. can most "strengthen the country's capability to minimize global oil supply disruptions, enhance its resiliency in the face of any such disruption and bolster its response capabilities."