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Epidemic Alert and Response: WHO Checklist for Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Planning
"An influenza pandemic (or global epidemic) occurs when a new influenza virus subtype appears, against which no one is immune. This may result in several simultaneous epidemics worldwide with high numbers of cases and deaths. With the increase in global transport and urbanization, epidemics caused by the new influenza virus are likely to occur rapidly around the world. Many countries have gained experience in pandemic planning and response through dealing with the threat or reality of SARS and HPAI. Lessons learned during these outbreaks have been used when preparing the checklist, with SARS representing a potential pandemic first recognized in humans and HPAI representing a potential pandemic first recognized in birds. Experience with these outbreaks has shown that there is always room for improvement in pandemic preparedness. It is expected that the checklist, as well as the pandemic preparedness plans of countries, will need regular revision."
World Health Organization. Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response
2005
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From 'Never Again' to the 'New Normal': What Does the 2018-2019 Ebola Outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Tell Us About the State of Global Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Response?
From the Executive Summary: "The scale of the tragedy caused by the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa exposed serious failings in the way the world prepares for, and responds to, health emergencies. In the wake of the crisis the UN system and a constellation of international organizations, national governments, and international NGOs [non-governmental organizations] embarked on several initiatives to reform key aspects of global epidemic preparedness and response, from financing to clinical research. 'Never again' was the collective refrain. And yet, in June 2019, a typical headline in the UK press read '"Terrifying" Ebola epidemic out of control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo'. [...] What has happened, why, and what do the answers to those questions tell us about the state of the world's preparedness for pandemic threats? Those are the three overarching questions posed by the Global Preparedness and Monitoring Board (GPMB), and which we set out to explore in this report."
World Health Organization
Konyndyk, Jeremy M.; Tam, Theresa; Matsoso, Malebona Precious . . .
2019
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Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Measures for Mitigating the Risk and Impact of Epidemic and Pandemic Influenza
From the Scope and Purpose: "This document provides recommendations for the use of NPIs [non-pharmaceutical interventions] in future influenza epidemics and pandemics based on existing guidance documents and the latest scientific literature. The specific recommendations are based on a systematic review of the evidence on the effectiveness of NPIs, including personal protective measures, environmental measures, social distancing measures and travel-related measures. The information provided here will be useful for national authorities that are developing or updating their plans for mitigating the impact of influenza epidemics and pandemics."
World Health Organization
2019
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Characteristics of the U.S. Nursing Workforce with Patient Care Responsibilities: Resources for Epidemic and Pandemic Response
From the Executive Summary: "This report examines the composition of the United States nursing workforce, with a particular focus on nurses with direct patient care responsibilities, in order to provide data on nurses who may be best positioned to meet the nation's immediate needs during a response to an infectious disease outbreak. Analyzing nursing workforce data through the lenses of nursing licensure, specialties, level of care, and geographic locations may inform ways to strengthen strategic efforts for the mobilization of healthcare workers during any epidemic or pandemic in the United States."
United States. Department of Health and Human Services; United States. Health Resources and Services Administration; National Center for Health Workforce Analysis (U.S.)
2020
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Sampling of NPS Theses & Research: Pandemics, Epidemics & Influenza
From the "Abstract": "This document presents a sampling of unclassified, unlimited distribution (public release) NPS [Naval Postgraduate School] student theses, MBA Professional reports and NPS faculty research reports. These citations were collated from Calhoun, the Dudley Knox Library's publicly accessible institutional archive https://calhoun.nps.edu/public/ and the Homeland Security Digital Library (HSDL) https://www.hsdl.org/c/. The following search terms were used as well as a broad interpretation of decision-making needs in difficult situations. Theses and report searches were generally limited to title or abstract: (1) Pandemic; (2) Influenza; (3) Quarantine; (4) Vaccine OR vaccination; (5) Infectious disease; (6) Medical surge; (7) Surge capacity; (8) Mass casualty; (9) Shelter in place; [and] (10) Public health. As noted, the majority of the theses were done through the National Security Affairs department and mostly done by students in the Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) Master's program who, as first responders, have a lot of firsthand experience in these types of events and related planning exercises."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Dudley Knox Library
Marlatt, Greta E.
2020-03
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Mental Health and Behavioral Guidelines for Response to a Pandemic Flu Outbreak: Background on the Mental Health Impact of Natural Disasters, including Epidemics
"It is only relatively recently that attention has been focused on the mental health impact of disasters. Previously, concerns related to immediate physical health and community infrastructure risks in the aftermath of disasters such as storms, earthquakes, or floods had overwhelmed considerations of the short and long-term mental health consequences of disasters, or the extent to which mental health played a role in the impact of a disaster. In the arena of the health impact of natural disasters, the majority of data available relate to weather or geologic events. [...] We know that severe stress reactions are common; that front-line health and human services workers are at high risk for PTSD [Post Traumatic Stress Disorder]; and that in general, even in relatively developed countries, there is very little existing infrastructure in place that can adequately address the mental health needs of victims. In contrast, there is almost no data on the mental health impacts of outbreaks of disease. This is largely because there have been few pandemic health threats in the last century. Since the highly lethal pandemic outbreak of influenza in 1918, there have been few global threats from infectious agents. The recent outbreaks of SARS [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome] in Asia and Canada, which caused global concern but fortunately did not result in large-scale outbreaks nor a global pandemic, gives us the most recent data on the mental health concerns that are relevant in a pandemic outbreak situation."
Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences. Center for the Study of Traumatic Stress
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How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic
From the Abstract: "We explore how household consumption responds to epidemics, utilizing transaction-level household financial data to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] virus. As the number of cases grew, households began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. Initially spending increased sharply, particularly in retail, credit card spending and food items. This was followed by a sharp decrease in overall spending. Households responded most strongly in states with shelter-in-place orders in place by March 29th. We explore heterogeneity across partisan affiliation, demographics and income. Greater levels of social distancing are associated with drops in spending, particularly in restaurants and retail."
Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics
Baker, Scott R. (Scott Ross); Farrokhnia, R. A.; Meyer, Steffen, 1968- . . .
2020-03
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COVID-19 Pandemic and the Opioid Epidemic
From the Document: "In Monroe County, there were more deaths from heroin and/or fentanyl than motor vehicle accidents, homicides, and suicides 'combined' in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Unofficial data indicates that there were at least 127 opioid overdose fatalities in 2019. Agencies and communities across Monroe County have made some critical progress in our efforts to address the opioid problem. [...] In fact, one recent success is that the unofficial overdose data indicate that 2019 fatal and nonfatal overdoses are down from 2018 overdoses. While we hope to continue these important gains, we recognize that this will require momentum and a renewed commitment while up against COVID-19 [coronavirus disease]. This brief document is meant as a jumping off point to identify some issues that are relevant to the intersection of COVID-19 and the opioid epidemic locally. This is just the beginning of a much longer conversation to ensure that some of our most vulnerable population is not left out while we tackle COVID-19. As we are in uncharted territory, tracking as much as possible and evaluating the responses are just as important now as they were before."
Center for Public Safety Initiatives
Duda-Banwar, Janelle; Altheimer, Irshad
2020-04
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Uncurrent Events: Epidemics, Pandemics, and the Economy
From the Webpage: "As many schools and universities move to online learning in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, FRASER hopes these historical primary and secondary source resources from our collection and those of our partners and colleagues will be useful."
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
2020-03-23
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Epidemics, Pandemics and Humanitarian Challenges: Lessons from a Number of Health Crises
From the Introduction: "In the context of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic, we decided to bring together the lessons from our work on major health crises so that they can be shared. [...] We focused on our different research and evaluation projects including both in-depth literature reviews (see annexes) and field work (Haiti, Chad and Yemen for cholera; Guinea, Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of Congo for Ebola). During these research and evaluation projects, dozens of practitioners were interviewed in the field and at the headquarters of the agencies involved (UN agencies, NGOs [non-governmental organization], donors, and the Health ministries and institutions in the countries concerned). The content of this lesson-sharing document is largely based on these interviews. Additional content is from a study for the Global WASH [water sanitation and hygiene] Cluster on providing WASH assistance in extreme situations."
Groupe URD
Grünewald, François, 1958-; Maury, Hugues
2020-03-29
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Epidemic in a Pandemic: Flattening the Curve in the Opioid Crisis
From the Document: "After more than a decade of increases, overdose deaths finally saw a decline in 2018 (the most recent year for which we have data). Yet, this positive trend came to an abrupt end in early 2020 as the United States faced COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo officially put the state on 'pause' as of March 22, 2020. To enable social distancing, non-essential employees were sent home to work and non-essential businesses temporarily closed to the public. Substance use, however, did not take a break. According to one substance-use provider, flattening the curve for opioid overdose deaths 'took millions and millions of dollars and a lot of innovative practices… it took a lot to reach that point and… we now have COVID.'"
Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government
Strach, Patricia; Pérez-Chiqués, Elizabeth; Zuber, Katie
2020
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Obesity and Outcomes in COVID-19: When an Epidemic and Pandemic Collide
From the Abstract: "Obesity has reached epidemic proportions in the United States and in much of the westernized world, contributing to considerable morbidity. Several of these obesity-related morbidities are associated with greater risk for death with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 penetrates human cells through direct binding with angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors on the cell surface. Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression in adipose tissue is higher than that in lung tissue, which means that adipose tissue may be vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. Obese patients also have worse outcomes with COVID-19 infection, including respiratory failure, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher mortality. Clinicians need to be more aggressive when treating obese, especially severely obese, patients with COVID-19 infection."
Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research
Sanchis-Gomar, Fabian; Lavie, Carl J.; Mehra, Mandeep R. . . .
2020-07
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Influenza Pandemic Preparedness: A Concept Plan to Prepare for the Contingency of a Major Global Pandemic of Influenza
"The WHO and health authorities worldwide have recognized that the world is under threat of a major pandemic of influenza which could potentially have serious effects on the health of the human population. Major pandemics have occurred in 1889, 1918/19, 1957 and 1968 and another major pandemic may well occur in the near future. The 1918/19 pandemic of influenza was one of the most devastating epidemics of an infectious disease to have affected mankind. This pandemic was directly responsible for over 20 million deaths, more than perished in conflict in the preceding Great War, and mainly affected previously healthy young adults. In South Africa the pandemic killed over 300 000 persons, overwhelming the ability of the authorities to dispose of the corpses, in addition to the total paralysis of the healthcare facilities for treating patients. Following on this epidemic there was, also, considerable post-epidemic morbidity in the form of encephalitis lethargica. Unfortunately science has not yet developed the tools to be able to predict when and where a future major pandemic will occur or what the impact of it will be. For this reason countries throughout the world have been invited to prepare contingency plans in the event of a future major pandemic. Were such an event to occur in the future, this would result in a vast demand for vaccine which could result in inequitable distribution as well as major demands for drugs such as antivirals and antibiotics.The WHO has established an influenza pandemic task force to prepare a blueprint plan to guide governments in preparing for the next pandemic. Account will need to be taken of this document when it does appear, probably towards the end of this year, in finalizing a definitive pandemic preparedness plan."
National Institute for Virology (South Africa)
Schoub, Barry D.
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Department of Defense Guidance for Preparation and Response to an Influenza Pandemic caused by the Bird Flu (Avian Influenza)
"The attached Department of Defense (DoD) Pandemic Influenza Preparation and Response Planning Guidance provides instructions on activities to undertake in order to prepare the DoD for the possibility of an influenza pandemic. This guidance implements the recommendations from the National Pandemic Influenza Response plan by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and is tailored to the unique needs of the DoD. Epidemics of influenza occur annually around the world. In the northern hemisphere, they occur over the winter between October and March. Influenza pandemics occur infrequently and cause substantially higher morbidity and mortality. Whereas most annual epidemics impact the elderly and other medically high-risk groups, pandemics or uncontrolled global outbreaks cause significantly higher illness and death rates in generally healthy groups (such as young adults or military personnel) who are not usually affected by annual epidemics."
United States. Department of Defense
2004-09-21
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Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza, Florida Department of Health
"Influenza A viruses periodically cause worldwide epidemics, or pandemics, with high rates of illness and death and considerable health care infrastructure disruption. Advanced planning for a large scale and widespread health emergency is required to optimize health care delivery through a pandemic. Unlike other public health emergencies, an influenza epidemic will impact on multiple communities across Florida simultaneously. Each local jurisdiction must be prepared to respond in the context of uncertain availability of external resources and support. Therefore, contingency planning is required to mitigate the impact of an influenza epidemic through planning and preparation by the coordinated efforts of all levels of government in collaboration with their stakeholders. The 'Florida Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza', intended to be dynamic and iterative, consists of preparedness and response components that are consistent with the general principals of emergency response. Each section aims to assist and facilitate appropriate planning at all levels of government for the next influenza pandemic. With direction from the Pandemic Influenza Coordinating Committee, the Florida Department of Health's Division of Disease Control coordinated the development of this plan in collaboration with numerous other public health agencies and interested individuals."
Florida. Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services
2004-03
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Pandemic Influenza Response Plan for Seattle & King County, Version 14
"Seasonal influenza epidemics recur yearly due to subtypes of influenza that circulate worldwide. These epidemics are responsible for an average of 36,000 deaths annually in the United States. Seasonal influenza primarily impacts those in the community with weaker immune responses (the very young, old and chronically ill) since most people develop some degree of immunity to the viruses through annual illness or vaccine. This immune response helps protect from the serious consequences of influenza. Influenza pandemics, however, are distinct from seasonal influenza epidemics and represent one of the greatest potential threats to the public's health. Pandemic influenza refers to a worldwide epidemic due to a new, dramatically different strain of influenza virus. A pandemic virus strain can spread rapidly from person to person and, if severe, can cause high levels of disease and death around the world."
King County (Wash.)
2007-01-01
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County of San Diego Pandemic Influenza and Other Highly Infectious Respiratory Transmitted Disease Response Plan
"An influenza pandemic has a very significant potential to cause rapid increases in death and illness among all age groups and even among the healthy population. Planning and preparedness before the next pandemic strikes is critical for an effective response. This Pandemic Influenza and Other Highly Infectious Respiratory Transmitted Disease Response Plan describes a coordinated local strategy to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic that supplements the State and Federal Plans. Influenza causes seasonal epidemics of disease resulting in an average of 36,000 deaths each year. A pandemic-or significant global epidemic-occurs when there is a mutation in the influenza virus so that most or all of the world's human population has no previous exposure and is thus vulnerable to the virus. Three pandemics occurred during the 20th century, the most severe of which, in 1918, caused over 500,000 U.S. deaths and more than 20 million deaths worldwide. Recent outbreaks of human disease caused by avian (bird) influenza strains in Asia and Europe highlight the potential of new strains to be introduced into the human population. Recent studies suggest that avian strains are mutating genetically and may be more capable of causing severe disease in humans. These strains have become endemic in some wild birds. If these strains reassort with human influenza viruses they can effectively be spread between humans and a pandemic can occur."
San Diego County (Calif.)
2005-10
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Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues
"There is widespread concern among policymakers and public health experts about the possibility of a worldwide epidemic of avian influenza. Such pandemics are not new: there were three in the 20th century, of which one, the 1918"1919 Spanish flu outbreak, is estimated to have killed over 500,000 people in the U.S. and up to 50 million worldwide. Public health concerns arise because of the challenge of creating the public health infrastructure in the United States and other countries that would be adequate to meet the challenges of a severe pandemic. Although a pandemic could be caused by any of several influenza strains, scientists are particularly worried about H5N1, a strain that has caused repeated epidemics with high mortality among poultry in Asia, has spread from Southeast Asia to flocks in Central Asia and Europe, and has made the jump from birds to humans, causing the deaths of over 60 people. Moreover, viruses of the H5 subtype are not known to have ever circulated among the human population, which means that there would be little immunity to it. To date, close contact with infected poultry is thought to be required for human infection, but the danger exists that the virus will evolve in a way that allows for efficient human-to-human transmission. If the virus does acquire that capability, a worldwide epidemic, or pandemic, could occur. Depending on the virulence of the particular strain of flu, such an outbreak could have substantial consequences for people and economic activity around the world."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2005-12-05
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Physical Interventions to Interrupt or Reduce the Spread of Respiratory Viruses: Systematic Review
From the Introduction: "Epidemic and pandemic new viral infections pose a serious threat worldwide. Several have occurred recently, including the current H1N1 pandemic influenza and the coronavirus outbreak that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Even non-epidemic acute respiratory tract infections place a serious burden on health and healthcare systems. Overall, epidemics account for most of the 7% of total deaths from respiratory tract infections in the world. Our 2007 Cochrane review showed that physical interventions (personal hygiene, barriers, and distancing) are highly effective. However, the current mainstay of pandemic interventions still seems to be vaccines and antiviral drugs, with no evidence supporting their widespread use, especially against a seemingly mild threat such as the novel H1N1 virus. For example, in the most recent guidance document on planning for pandemic influenza from the World Health Organization, handwashing and masks were mentioned only twice and gloves and gowns once each, but vaccines and antivirals were cited 24 and 18 times, respectively."
BMJ Publishing Group
Jefferson, Tom; Del Mar, Chris; Dooley, Liz . . .
2009-09-22
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Potential Influenza Pandemic: An Update on Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues
"In December 2005, at the request of the Senate Majority Leader, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prepared an assessment of the possible macroeconomic effects of an avian flu pandemic. In its assessment, CBO also described the nation's preparedness for a pandemic and options for increasing preparedness. At the request of the Majority Leader and the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, CBO has undertaken this update to its earlier work, focusing on changes in the budgetary and economic aspects of the nation's preparedness. Although a pandemic could be caused by any of several influenza strains, scientists are particularly worried about H5N1, a strain that has caused repeated epidemics with high mortality among poultry in Asia; has spread from Southeast Asia to flocks in Central Asia, Europe, and Africa; and has made the jump from birds to humans, causing the deaths of over 120 people. Infectious diseases are unpredictable, so it is impossible to say for sure whether a new pandemic will arise; whether it will involve the H5N1 virus; and, if it does, when it will happen and whether it will be mild or severe. The H5N1 virus could mutate in a way that causes a severe pandemic next year or a mild epidemic in a decade or two. Or it could evolve in a way that renders it harmless. Or a pandemic could arise from an entirely different virus subtype."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2006-05-22
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Is the Fremont Fire Department Ready for a Pandemic?
"The problem is the City of Fremont is located in an area of the country that is widely diverse and highly populated. Consequently, the citizens of Fremont and surrounding communities are vulnerable to a rapid spread of a pandemic flu epidemic. The purpose of this research project was to identify if the City of Fremont is prepared and equipped to handle a pandemic outbreak and to compare Fremont's readiness model to recommendations of leading authorities. The descriptive research method was used to find out: a) What is the current capability of the Fremont Fire Department in handling a pandemic flu outbreak? b) What percentage of the community is at the highest risk in a pandemic epidemic? c) What are the recommendations of leading authorities on pandemic preparedness? and d) Is Fremont in compliance with recognized recommendations? Through literature review and personal interviews, it was discovered that a large percentage of the Fremont community is considered in the high risk category for contracting the 2009 H1N1 virus. Although Fremont's Metropolitan Medical Response System (MMRS) and Medical Reserve Core (MRC) are current programs in the Department, recommendations in this study encourage the development of a pandemic preparedness plan and suggest enhancement on current capabilities of operational readiness by improving training and communications with employees and the public. Recommendations also include preparedness planning and activities that should be developed in collaboration with the local County Health Department, hospitals and key stakeholders in the community."
National Fire Academy
Maize, Ronald
2010-02
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Macroeconomic Effects of Covid-19: An Early Review
From the Introduction: "The Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic is not only the most serious global health crisis since the 1918 Great Influenza (Spanish flu), but is set to become one of the most economically costly pandemics in recent history. Experience with past epidemics provides some insights into the various channels through which economic costs could arise, in the short as well as longer term. At the same time, Covid-19 differs from previous episodes in several important ways. Notably, the globally synchronised lockdowns and trauma of financial markets reinforce one another into an unprecedented economic sudden stop. For these reasons, the Covid-19 global recession is unique. However, past epidemics can shed light on transmission channels to the economy, especially when stringent containment policies are not in place. This Bulletin provides an early review of empirical studies on the economic costs of epidemics. We first review studies on past epidemics, and then turn to the latest quantitative estimates of Covid-19's impact on global growth."
Bank for International Settlements
Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 1977-; Boissay, Frédéric
2020-04-17
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State of Alaska: Division of Public Health: Pandemic Influenza Response Plan [2007]
"Unlike influenza epidemics, which occur seasonally and result in an average of 36,000 deaths in the U.S. each year, influenza pandemics (global epidemics) occur sporadically, and have the potential to result in hundreds of thousands of deaths nationally over the course of one year. During the 20th century there were three influenza pandemics, the most severe of which occurred in 1918-19 and caused over 500,000 deaths in the U.S. and more than 50 million deaths worldwide. Influenza pandemics occur when there is a major change in the structure of a strain of influenza virus such that most (or all) of the world's population is vulnerable to infection. These major changes emerge by at least two mechanisms: genetic recombination and adaptive mutation. Of the three influenza pandemics in the 20th century, two (1957 and 1968) occurred as a result of major changes in the genetic composition of the virus through the recombination of genetic elements from avian and human influenza strains, and one (1918) occurred as a result of adaptive mutations that allowed the virus to be efficiently transmitted first from birds to humans and then from person-to-person. At some point in the future, the world will be faced with another pandemic caused by a novel strain of influenza virus that spreads rapidly and causes extraordinarily high rates of illness and death-higher, in fact, than virtually any other natural health threat. Because novel influenza viruses have the potential to spread rapidly, high levels of absenteeism in the workforce can quickly jeopardize essential community services, including health care services throughout affected regions."
Alaska. Division of Public Health
2007-07
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Pacific Police Department Continuity of Operations Plan for Pandemic Disease
From the Situation: "There have been five influenza pandemics over the last century. The 1918 influenza pandemic is thought to have been the most deadly pandemic in human history, with an estimated 50 to 100 million fatalities. The global and regional impacts of the 1918 pandemic remain unparalleled, causing long-term and widespread social and economic devastation, comparable only to a major world war. In the last twenty years we have seen the 2009 H1N1 (Swine) influenza pandemic, localized outbreaks of H7N9 (Avian) influenza, and several significant non-influenza infectious disease epidemics: SARS [severe acute respiratory syndrome] coronavirus, MERS [Middle East respiratory syndrome] coronavirus, Ebola hemorrhagic fever, the Zika virus, and in 2020 an outbreak of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. All of these outbreaks were produced by either a novel virus or appeared in regions without historical precedent. Research suggests that changes in climate, global transportation, agricultural practices, and continued deforestation may increase the prevalence, severity, and transmission of future infectious disease outbreaks. The outbreak of COVID-19 as this policy is written now represents the greatest pandemic threat and calls for urgent regional and global preparation and mitigation efforts. The true severity of the current and next pandemic remains largely unknown as virus' are in a constant state of mutation. This necessitates planning that is similarly able to adapt to dynamic disease characteristics and response demands. The following plan exemplifies this perspective by providing concise objectives, flexible response actions, and a clear delineation of responsibilities. Lessons from past pandemics were integral to the development of this plan, so that we are better able to respond to the infectious disease challenges of the future."
Pacific Police Department (Wash.)
2020
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Pandemic Influenza Impact on Workforce and Critical Infrastructure
This document is a fact sheet regarding pandemic influenza impact analysis produced by the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) under the Department of Homeland Security. "Conclusions from the epidemiological and mitigation strategy analyses conducted to date include: response time is most important, other factors are secondary; partially effective response early is best; geospatial dynamics are important; face masks can reduce or prevent an epidemic; border control can only delay an epidemic and a 95% reduction in the contagious individuals entering the country delays the epidemic by 5 weeks; and social distancing is also effective in delaying an epidemic, but returning to normal interactions without other mitigation measures causes waves of outbreaks."
United States. Department of Homeland Security
2006
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Social Distancing Strategies for Curbing the COVID-19 Epidemic
From the Abstract: "The SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] pandemic is straining healthcare resources worldwide, prompting social distancing measures to reduce transmission intensity. The amount of social distancing needed to curb the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the context of seasonally varying transmission remains unclear. Using a mathematical model, we assessed that one-time interventions will be insufficient to maintain COVID-19 [coronavirus disease] prevalence within the critical care capacity of the United States. Seasonal variation in transmission will facilitate epidemic control during the summer months but could lead to an intense resurgence in the autumn. Intermittent distancing measures can maintain control of the epidemic, but without other interventions, these measures may be necessary into 2022. Increasing critical care capacity could reduce the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic while ensuring that critically ill patients receive appropriate care."
Harvard University
Kissler, Stephen; Tedijanto, Christine; Lipsitch, Marc . . .
2020-03
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Report 25: Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and Implications for Lifting Stringent Interventions
From the Summary: "While South Korea experienced a sharp growth in COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases early in the global pandemic, it has since rapidly reduced rates of infection and now maintains low numbers of daily new cases. Despite using less stringent 'lockdown' measures than other affected countries, strong social distancing measures have been advised in high incidence areas and a 38% national decrease in movement occurred voluntarily between February 24th - March 1st . Suspected and confirmed cases were isolated quickly even during the rapid expansion of the epidemic and identification of the Shincheonji cluster. South Korea swiftly scaled up testing capacity and was able to maintain case-based interventions throughout. However, individual case-based contact tracing, not associated with a specific cluster, was a relatively minor aspect of their control program, with cluster investigations accounting for a far higher proportion of cases: the underlying epidemic was driven by a series of linked clusters, with 48% of all cases in the Shincheonji cluster and 20% in other clusters. Case-based contacts currently account for only 11% of total cases. The high volume of testing and low number of deaths suggests that South Korea experienced a small epidemic of infections relative to other countries. Therefore, caution is needed in attempting to duplicate the South Korean response in settings with larger more generalized epidemics. Finding, testing and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult in such settings."
Imperial College London
Dighe, Amy; Cattarino, Lorenzo; Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina
2020-05-29
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Political Scar of Epidemics
From the Abstract: "What will be political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual's 'impressionable years' (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. We find similar negative effects on confidence in public health systems, suggesting that the loss of confidence in political leadership and institutions is associated with healthcare-related policies at the time of the epidemic. In line with this argument, our results are mostly driven by individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with less capacity to act against the epidemic, disappointing their citizens. We provide evidence of this mechanism by showing that weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] outbreak. These results imply that the Coronavirus may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation ('Generation Z')."
National Bureau of Economic Research
Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Eichengreen, Barry J.; Saka, Orkun
2020-06
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Neglected Dimension of Global Security: A Framework to Counter Infectious Disease Crises
"Pandemics and epidemics have killed countless millions throughout human history. Highly virulent infectious diseases, such as the plague, cholera, and influenza, have repeatedly swept through human societies, causing death, economic chaos, and, as a consequence, political and social disorder. In the pat 100 years, the 1918 influenza pandemic killed approximately 50 million; HIV/AIDS took the lives of more than 35 million. Although more recently-emerging epidemics, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, H1N1 in 2009 -- and most recently, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa -- have had lower death tolls, they have nevertheless had a huge impact in terms of both social and economic disruption."
National Academies Press (U.S.); Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future
2016
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Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services Pandemic Influenza Plan
The purpose of this plan is: "To provide an effective response to Pandemic Influenza resulting from natural causes or a terrorist release. This response will reduce the impact on public health (i.e. reduce illness and save lives) and maintain essential services while minimizing economic loss. The following response plan will be implemented after a novel influenza strain begins to spread readily from person to person, and it is geared toward action and specific responsibilities, and designed to complement existing DHSS emergency response plans. […] Epidemics of influenza occur annually in the United States, and the Department of Health and Senior Services runs an ongoing program of education, surveillance, control and prevention to minimize the effects of these epidemics. […] If an unexpected epidemic should occur as a result of a known circulating strain of influenza, parts of the pandemic flu plan would be implemented to minimize the outbreak. The parts implemented would depend upon the specifics of the outbreak and would be determined in consultation with CDC, DHSS experts, local public health agencies, and local and state elected officials."
Missouri. Department of Health & Senior Services
2006-02-09
