From the Executive Summary: "With vaccine rollouts underway, the world finally has an opportunity to look beyond COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and to plan meaningfully into the future. Nevertheless, uncertainties abound, and new shocks may continue to arise, potentially bringing about social, economic, health, political and other consequences. As a region, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is vulnerable to these uncertainties and shocks, due to preexisting weaknesses such as underinvestment in public health and healthcare, inequality, high labor informality, low productivity, and weak democratic governance. Indeed, these structural weaknesses made LAC among the worst coronavirus-affected regions in human and socioeconomic terms. Going forward, the region's leaders must address the risks and opportunities that will shape the post-COVID future. Which key uncertainties will drive the region forward in the coming years, for better or worse? What are the major opportunities and risks facing governments, the private sector, and citizens, and to what extent can they effectively anticipate and navigate them? This report provides an outside-the-box framework to help unpack these questions and to challenge static assumptions about today's rapidly changing world. Building upon a robust scenario-planning exercise involving eighty-plus experts, the report identifies three main drivers of change--labeled as the dominant configuring factors (DCFs)--that will shape the region's post-COVID-19 future."
Atlantic Council of the United States
Zhang, Pepe; Engelke, Peter O.; Van Velkinburgh, Sara