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Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism (CPOST) [website]
"The Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism addresses serious policy challenges related to the principal international security issues facing the United States and the world community. The Chicago Project advances its purpose through three main activities: 1) the collection, maintenance, and expansion of a searchable database of international suicide terrorist attacks from 1981 to the present; 2) the collection and translation of martyr videos from around the world; and 3) support and conduct research projects to help the public and the policy community solve fundamental international security problems."
University of Chicago
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Early Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in Europe: A View from the Grid
From the Abstract: "This paper presents preliminary estimates of how electricity consumption has changed in the European Union since the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], as a proxy for short-term changes in economic activity. I collect hourly data by country from European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) from 2016-present, and match it with automated weather stations to adjust for heating and cooling demand. As of the week ending 4 April, 2020, power consumption is down roughly 10%, with large differences across countries reflecting the timing and stringency of lockdown policies."
University of Chicago
Cicala, Steve
2020-04-08
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How to Lose a Constitutional Democracy
From the Abstract: "Is the United States at risk of democratic backsliding? And would the Constitution prevent such decay? To many, the 2016 election campaign and the conduct of newly installed President Donald Trump may be the immediate catalyst for these questions. But structural changes to the socioeconomic environment and geopolitical shifts are what make the question a truly pressing one. Eschewing a focus on current events, this Article develops a taxonomy of different threats of democratic backsliding, the mechanisms whereby they unfold, and the comparative risk of each threat in the contemporary moment. By drawing on comparative law and politics experience, we demonstrate that there are two modal paths of democratic decay. We call these 'authoritarian reversion' and 'constitutional retrogression.' A reversion is a rapid and near-complete collapse of democratic institutions. Retrogression is a more subtle, incremental erosion to three institutional predicates of democracy occurring simultaneously: competitive elections; rights of political speech and association; and the administrative and adjudicative rule of law. We show that over the past quarter-century, the risk of reversion in democracies around the world has declined, whereas the risk of retrogression has spiked. The United States is neither exceptional nor immune from these changes. We evaluate the danger of retrogression as clear and present here (and elsewhere), whereas we think reversion is much less likely. We further demonstrate that the constitutional safeguards against retrogression are weak. The near-term prospects of constitutional liberal democracy hence depend less on our institutions than on the qualities of political leadership, popular resistance, and the quiddities of partisan coalitional politics."
University of Chicago. Law School
Huq, Aziz Z.; Ginsburg, Tom
2018
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Use of Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) Ventilators in the Pediatric Patient: Instructional Guidelines with Training Scenarios
From the 'Overview & Mechanical Ventilation Review': "The threat of nature in the form of an influenza illness has accelerated preparations for a potential pandemic flu, which may result in thousands of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. In the wake of a pandemic flu most available ventilators owned by hospitals will be in use, necessitating the delivery of ventilators currently stored in the Strategic National Stockpile [SNS]. In addition to a surge of all patient populations in a pandemic, there may also be many children who require respiratory support in hospitals that do not routinely care for children on ventilators. This document has been developed for use by clinicians (physicians, nurses and respiratory care providers) who have baseline knowledge of pulmonary physiology and the concepts of ventilation and who may find themselves working with ventilators that are not used on a daily basis. The intent is to provide clinicians with a quick reference for Just-in-Time training and set up of the SNS Ventilators (as of 2010). Mechanical Ventilation is indicated in pandemic flu for acute respiratory failure, defined as insufficient oxygenation, insufficient alveolar ventilation, or both. The principal benefits of mechanical ventilation are improved gas exchange and decreased work of breathing. Mechanical ventilation can be volume, pressure, flow or time-limited."
Illinois. Department of Public Health; Loyola University of Chicago
2010
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Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations
From the Abstract: "We use data from the aggregate equity market and dividend futures to quantify how investors' expectations about economic growth across horizons evolve in response to the coronavirus outbreak and subsequent policy responses. Dividend futures, which are claims to dividends on the aggregate stock market in a particular year, can be used to directly compute a lower bound on growth expectations across maturities or to estimate expected growth using a simple forecasting model. We show how the actual forecast and the bound evolve over time. As of May 12, our forecast of annual growth in dividends is down 16% in the US and 23% in the EU, and our forecast of GDP [gross domestic product] growth is down by 3.6% in the US and 5.0% in the EU. The lower bound on the change in expected dividends is -29% in the US and -38% in the EU at the 2-year horizon. There are signs of catch-up growth from year 3 to year 7. News about economic relief programs on March 13 appear to have increased stock prices by lowering risk aversion and lift long-term growth expectations, but did little to improve expectations about short-term growth. Expected growth deteriorates between March 13 and March 18. News about fiscal stimulus around March 24 boosts the market and long-term growth but again did little to increase short-term growth expectations. Expected dividend growth has improved since April 1 both in the US and EU. We show how data on dividend futures can be used to understand why stock markets fell so sharply, well beyond changes in growth expectations."
Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics; University of Chicago
Gormsen, Niels Joachim; Koijen, Ralph S. J.
2020-05-23
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US COVID Atlas [website]
From the Webpage: "The US COVID [coronavirus disease 2019] Atlas is a visualization tool led by a University of Chicago research coalition. In a quickly changing pandemic landscape, our tool connects COVID case data and community indicators across the United States from its beginning to today. The Atlas helps you access current, validated county-level data and spatial analysis to better understand the spread in communities and to bolster planning efforts."
University of Chicago. Center for Spatial Data Science
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Expanding Capacity for Vaccines Against Covid-19 and Future Pandemics: A Review of Economic Issues
From the Abstract: "We review economic arguments for using public policy to accelerate vaccine supply during a pandemic. Rapidly vaccinating a large share of the global population helps avoid economic, mortality, and social losses, which in the case of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] mounted into trillions of dollars. However, pharmaceutical firms are unlikely to have private incentives to invest in vaccine capacity at the socially optimal scale and speed. The socially optimal level of public spending may cause some sticker shock but--as epitomized by the tagline 'spending billions to save trillions'--is eclipsed by the benefits and can be restrained with the help of careful policy design and advance preparations. Capacity is so valuable during a pandemic that fractional dosing and other measures to stretch available capacity should be explored."
University of Chicago. Development Innovation Lab; Becker Friedman Institute. Development Economics Center
Athey, Susan; Castillo, Juan-Camilo; Kremer, Michael, 1964- . . .
2022-07
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