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Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (Formerly the Red Team Handbook)
"The premise of the program at the University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies (UFMCS) is that people and organizations court failure in predictable ways, that they do so by degrees, almost imperceptibly, and that they do so according to their mindsets, biases, and experience, which are formed in large part by their own culture and context. The sources of these failures are simple, observable, and lamentably, often repeated. They are also preventable, and that is the point of 'red teaming'. Our methods and education involve more than Socratic discussion and brainstorming. We believe that good decision processes are essential to good outcomes. To that end, our curriculum is rich in divergent processes, red teaming tools, and liberating structures, all aimed at decision support. We educate people to develop a disposition of curiosity, and help them become aware of biases and behavior that prevent them from real positive change in the ways they seek solutions and engage others. We borrow techniques, methods, frameworks, concepts, and best practices from several sources and disciplines to create an education, and practical applications, that we find to be the best safeguard against individual and organizational tendencies toward biases, errors in cognition, and groupthink. Red teaming is diagnostic, preventative, and corrective; yet it is neither predictive or a solution. Our goal is to be better prepared and less surprised in dealing with complexity."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2015-01
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U.S. Army Functional Concept for Intelligence: 2020-2040
"TRADOC [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command] Pam[phlet] 525-2-1, The U.S. Army Functional Concept for Intelligence (AFC-I), expands on the idea of developing situational understanding presented in TRADOC Pam 525-3-1, The U.S. Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World (AOC) and TRADOC Pam 525-3-6, The Army Functional Concept for Movement and Maneuver (AFC-MM). The AFC-I describes extending the intelligence enterprise from national to tactical echelons, organizing the force to support the regionally aligned expeditionary Army forces, leveraging technology to enable Soldiers, and developing professionals to deliver information and intelligence to commanders as they execute joint combined arms operations. While technology is a central enabler to this effort, the Army must produce agile, adaptive, culturally aware, and innovative leaders and Soldiers who provide the intelligence commanders and units need to win against adaptive enemies."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2017-02
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U.S. Army Concept for Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare Operations: 2025-2040
"TRADOC [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command] Pamphlet 525-8-6, The U.S. Army Concept for Cyberspace and Electronic Warfare Operations expands on the ideas presented in TRADOC Pamphlet 525-3-1, The U.S. Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World (AOC). This document describes how the Army will operate in and through cyberspace and the electromagnetic spectrum and will fully integrate cyberspace, electronic warfare (EW), and electromagnetic spectrum operations as part of joint combined arms operations to meet future operational environment challenges. Cyberspace and EW operations provide commanders the ability to conduct simultaneous, linked maneuver in and through multiple domains, and to engage adversaries and populations where they live and operate. Cyberspace and EW operations provide commanders a full range of physical and virtual, as well as kinetic and non-kinetic, capabilities tailored into combinations that enhance the combat power of maneuver elements conducting joint combined operations. This concept serves as a foundation for developing future cyberspace and electronic warfare capabilities and helps Army leaders think clearly about future armed conflict, learn about the future through the Army's campaign of learning, analyze future capability gaps and identify opportunities, and implement interim solutions to improve current and future force combat effectiveness."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2018-01
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United States Army Concept Capability Plan for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction for the Future Modular Force 2015-2024 [Version 1.0]
"TRADOC Pamphlet (Pam) 525-7-19, The U.S. Army Concept Capability Plan for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction for the Future Modular Force 2015-2024 provides amplification to the Army's capstone and operating concepts and nests with the joint publication, Joint Integrating Concept for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). It describes capabilities required for the future Modular Force to implement effectively the National Military Strategy to combat WMD (NMSCWMD) during 2015--2024. This concept incorporates the guiding principles active, layered defense in depth and situational awareness and command and control from the NMSCWMD. It serves as a reference guide for future combat development efforts designed to provide relevant and ready land power that is neither coerced nor attacked by enemies using WMD; able to rapidly mitigate effects of WMD across full spectrum operations."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2009-03-25
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Kidnapping and Terror in the Contemporary Operational Environment
"Kidnapping and Terror in the Contemporary Operational Environment is a supplemental handbook to the US Army Training and Doctrine Command capstone handbook guide on terrorism, TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. Understanding terrorism and kidnapping span foreign and domestic threats in a complex and uncertain array of threats in the contemporary operational environment (COE). Purpose. This unclassified informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for US military forces in the War on Terrorism (WOT). This document promotes an improved understanding of terrorist objectives, motivation, and behaviors in the conduct of kidnapping. Compiled from open source materials, this terrorism handbook promotes a 'Threats' perspective as well as enemy situational awareness of US actions to combat terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2008-09-15
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Worldwide Equipment Identification Cards: China Edition
This document contains a deck of cards identifying Chinese weaponry, including a weapons system, the range of that main weapon, and the weapon system's nomenclature.
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
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Worldwide Equipment Identification Cards: Iran Edition
This document contains a deck of cards identifying Iranian weaponry, including a weapons system, the range of that main weapon, and the weapon system's nomenclature.
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
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Worldwide Equipment Identification Cards: Russia Edition
This document contains a deck of cards identifying Russian weaponry, including a weapons system, the range of that main weapon, and the weapon system's nomenclature.
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century [Updated August 15, 2007]
"A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century is a reference guide prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), TRADOC G2 as a capstone reference guide on terrorism. TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century is prepared by the TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA)-Threats. Understanding terrorism spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agents, and other actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. This terrorism guide addresses foreign and domestic threats against the United States of America in a contemporary operational environment (COE). This informational handbook supports institutional training, professional military education, and operational missions for U.S. military forces in the War on Terrorism (WOT). This document provides an introduction to the nature of terrorism and recognition of terrorist threats to U.S. military forces. A common situational awareness by U.S. military forces considers three principal venues for armed forces: forces that are deployed, forces that are in transit to or from an operational mission, and forces that are primarily installation or institution support. Compiled from open source materials, this handbook promotes a 'Threats' perspective and enemy situational awareness of U.S. strategies and operations in combating terrorism. Neither a counterterrorism directive nor antiterrorism manual, this handbook complements but does not replace Army training and intelligence products on terrorism. This handbook exists primarily for U.S. military forces; however, other applicable groups include interdepartmental, interagency, intergovernmental, civilian contractor, nongovernmental, private volunteer, and humanitarian relief organizations, and the general citizenry."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2007-08-15
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century [Final Draft]
"This document is a reference guide prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. Understanding terrorism spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agent demonstrations, and actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A central aspect of this terrorism guide comprises foreign and domestic threats against the United States of America in a contemporary operational environment (COE). This informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This capstone document provides an introduction to the nature of terrorism and recognition of terrorist threats to U.S. military forces. A common situational awareness by U.S. military forces considers three principal venues: forces that are deployed, forces that are in transit to or from an operational mission, and forces that are primarily installation or institution support. Compiled from open source materials, this handbook promotes a 'Threats' perspective and enemy situational awareness of U.S. strategies and operations in combating terrorism. Neither a counter-terrorism directive nor anti-terrorism manual, the handbook complements but does not replace training and intelligence products on terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century
"This informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This capstone document provides an introduction to the nature of terrorism and recognition of terrorist threats to U.S. military forces. A common situational awareness by U.S. military forces considers three principal venues: forces that are deployed, forces that are in transit to or from an operational mission, and forces that are primarily installation or institution support."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2004-10-12
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Arab Cultural Awareness: 58 Factsheets
"This handbook is designed to specifically provide the trainer a 'hip pocket training' resource. It is intended for informal squad or small group instruction. The goal is to provide soldiers with a basic overview of Arab culture. It must be emphasized that there is no 'one' Arab culture or society. The Arab world is full of rich and diverse communities, groups and cultures. Differences exist not only among countries, but within countries as well."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2006-01
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century [Version 3.0, August 2005]
"A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century is a reference guide prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. Understanding terrorism spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agent demonstrations, and actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A central aspect of this terrorism guide comprises foreign and domestic threats against the United States of America in a contemporary operational environment (COE). Purpose. This informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This capstone document provides an introduction to the nature of terrorism and recognition of terrorist threats to U.S. military forces. A common situational awareness by U.S. military forces considers three principal venues: forces that are deployed, forces that are in transit to or from an operational mission, and forces that are primarily installation or institution support. Compiled from open source materials, this handbook promotes a 'Threats' perspective and enemy situational awareness of U.S. strategies and operations in combating terrorism. Neither a counter-terrorism directive nor anti-terrorism manual, the handbook complements but does not replace training and intelligence products on terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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Civil Disturbances: Incorporating Non-Lethal Technology - Tactics, Techniques and Procedures
"U.S. forces deployed to peace operations need to be trained and equipped to meet the threat and challenges they will face. The international community expects a technologically sophisticated superpower to control unarmed hostile individuals and mobs by applying force that is proportionate and which protects innocent lives." This manual outlines the appropriate tactics, techniques, and procedures that need be employed by U.S. forces during peacekeeping operations.
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2000-04
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Terror Operations: Case Studies in Terrorism
"Terror Operations: Case Studies in Terrorism is a supplemental handbook that presents several terrorist incidents in a case study methodology. This handbook supports a U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence capstone reference guide on terrorism, DCSINT handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty- First Century. Both the capstone guide and supplemental handbook are prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. Understanding terrorism spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agent demonstrations, and actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A central aspect of this handbook comprises foreign and domestic threats against the United States of America in a contemporary operational environment (COE). This informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This document promotes an improved understanding of terrorist incident objectives, motivation, planning, and conduct of operations."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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Defense Support of Civil Authorities
"Defense Support to Civil Authorities: WMD/E Consequence Management is a supplemental handbook that presents an appreciation of U.S. military forces and their roles as part of Department of Defense support to Federal emergency response in a terrorist WMD/E incident. This handbook supports a U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence capstone reference guide on terrorism, DCSINT Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. Both the capstone guide and supplemental handbook are prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. Understanding WMD/E and terrorism spans foreign and domestic threats with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A central aspect of this handbook comprises is the use of U.S. military capabilities during a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or high yield explosive (CBRNE) incident in a contemporary operational environment (COE). This informational handbook supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) and Defense Support of Civil Authorities (DSCA). This document promotes an improved understanding of terrorist objectives, motivation, and intention to use WMD/E; and accent probable missions of U.S. military forces in WMD/E incident response. Compiled from open source materials, this handbook promotes a Threats perspective and enemy situational awareness of U.S. actions in combating terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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Suicide Bombing in the COE
"This handbook is one in a series of supplements to TRADOC DCSINT Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century, which is a basic terrorism primer prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. The terrorist threat confronting our military spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agent demonstrations, and actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A major tactic used by many terrorist groups is the use of suicide attacks. Although suicide terrorism is covered in the capstone terrorism handbook, this supplement provides more detail and insight. This informational document supplements the basic terrorism handbook and supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This document provides an introduction to suicide terrorism, and addresses the history of the phenomena, how terrorist organizations recruit potential suicide bombers, motivations for use of suicide, characteristics of suicide bombers, various weapons and TTPs used by suicide bombers, and finally, the specific threats to the military."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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Cyber Operations and Cyber Terrorism, Handbook Number 1.02
"This handbook is one in a series of supplements to TRADOC DCSINT Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century, which is a basic terrorism primer prepared under the direction of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence-Threats. The terrorist threat confronting our military spans foreign and domestic threats of nation-states, rogue states with international or transnational agent demonstrations, and actors with specific strategies, tactics, and targets. A major tactic used by many terrorist groups is Cyber Terrorism. Although Cyber Terrorism is covered in the capstone terrorism handbook, this supplement provides more detail and insight. Purpose. This informational document supplements the basic terrorism handbook and supports operational missions, institutional training, and professional military education for U.S. military forces in the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). This document provides an introduction to Cyber Terrorism, and addresses the history of the phenomena, how terrorist organizations recruit, the motivations behind use of the tactic, characteristics of Cyber Terrorism, and the types of attacks against networks. Finally, the handbook addresses specific threats to military forces."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-08-15
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U.S. Army Capstone Concept
"As the lead document of the Army Concept Framework, TRADOC [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command] Pam 525-3-0, 'The U.S. Army Capstone Concept' (ACC) describes our vision of the future operational environment, the role of the Army in the joint force, and the broad capabilities required by future Army forces. Greater speed, quantity, and reach of human interaction and increased access to military capabilities make the operational environment more unpredictable and complex, driving the likelihood and consequence of disorder. The ACC provides a guide to how the Army will apply available resources to overcome these challenges and prevent, shape and win in support of recent strategic guidance. The ACC also serves as the foundation for a campaign of learning that will evaluate and refine its major ideas and required capabilities. Finally, the ACC provides a roadmap for development of a comprehensive investment strategy that will rebalance the Army's force structure, readiness, and modernization efforts in support of national strategy. TRADOC Pam 525-3-0 establishes that, to meet the challenges of the future operational environment, the Army must maintain a credible capacity to 'win decisively' and support combatant commanders across a wide range of military operations at home and abroad. The credibility of our Army, robust, ready, and modernized, underpins our ability to prevent conflict, shape the operational environment, and win the Nation's wars as part of the joint force."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2012-12-19
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century: Coordinating Draft, May 2005
"A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century is a capstone reference guide that describes terrorism and its potential impact on U.S. military forces in the conduct of mission operations. The handbook highlights the nature of terrorism present in a full spectrum contemporary operational environment (COE), and the likely impacts on the conduct of U.S. military operations."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2005-05
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Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century [August 2003]
"This document is intended as a resource to inform U.S. military personnel of the nature and characteristics of the terrorist threat in the current operational environment. Its purpose is to provide unit leaders, planners and commanders with a tool for understanding the nature of the terrorism and identifying the threat of terrorism to their units. It provides information for leaders to conduct realistic evaluations of risk and vulnerability to their units, and details probable circumstances in which U.S. military units can expect terrorist operations against them and likely motivations for such operations. This document is not intended to be a counter-terrorism 'how-to' manual, or to replace current training and intelligence products dealing with terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2003-08
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United States Army Functional Concept for Intelligence: 2016-2028
This document "describes what the Army must do to develop forces capable of conducting intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination in support of commanders and facilitate understanding of the operational environment, the enemy, terrain, and civil considerations in support of military operations. This concept builds on TRADOC [Training and Doctrine Command] Pam 525-3-0, the ACC [Army Capstone Concept], and TRADOC Pam 525-3-1, the AOC [Army Operations Concept], and outlines the capabilities required to meet the demands of the operational environment as described in the 'TRADOC Operational Environment 2009-2025.' In this way, TRADOC Pam 525-2-1 serves as a foundation for future force development pertaining to intelligence and the intelligence warfighting function. In addition to the warfighting challenges of the future, the Army also faces a number of institutional challenges. The rapid pace of technological change, prolonged acquisition timelines, and growing resource constraints make it necessary for the Army to adopt a more responsive approach to capabilities development. Accordingly, TRADOC is shifting from a 5-year to a 2-year cycle for concept development and revision. As a result, the Army Capabilities Integration Center will update and revise the entire Army Concept Framework every 2 years. This significant change will enable more effective input into the major budget and programming decisions across our Army.
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2010-10-13
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United States Army Operating Concept: 2016-2028
This document "describes how future Army forces conduct operations as part of the joint force to deter conflict, prevail in war, and succeed in a wide range of contingencies in the future operational environment. It describes the employment of Army forces in the 2016-2028 timeframe with emphasis on the operational and tactical levels of war. In addition to describing broadly how Army headquarters organize and direct the employment of their forces, the concept describes the major categories of Army operations and identifies the capabilities required of Army forces to guide and prioritize future force development. The ideas discussed in this document will guide revisions in Army doctrine, organizations, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities. These ideas will also enhance the integration of Army forces with a wide array of domestic and international partners. The challenges of future armed conflict make it imperative for the Army to produce leaders and forces that exhibit a high degree of operational adaptability."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2010-08-19
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Army Capstone Concept: Operational Adaptability: Operating under Conditions of Uncertainty and Complexity in an Era of Persistent Conflict: 2016-2028
This document describes "the broad capabilities the Army will require in 2016-2028. It provides a guide to how the Army will apply available resources to overcome adaptive enemies and accomplish challenging missions. TRADOC Pam 525-3-0 articulates how to think about future armed conflict within an uncertain and complex environment. It provides a foundation for a campaign of learning and analysis that will evaluate and refine the concept's major ideas and required capabilities. Ultimately, prioritized capabilities that emerge from this concept and subordinate, more detailed concepts will guide changes in doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leader development and programs related to the human dimension for our Army. The aim of Army operations is to set conditions that achieve or facilitate the achievement of policy goals and objectives. Future enemies will constantly adapt and seek ways to overcome Army strengths and capitalize on what they perceive as our vulnerabilities. We operate where our enemies, indigenous populations, culture, politics, and religion intersect and where the fog and friction of war persists. The U.S. Army must maintain its core competency of conducting effective combined arms operations in close combat to employ defeat and stability mechanisms against a variety of threats. The U.S. Army must also hone its ability to integrate joint and interagency assets, develop the situation through action, and adjust rapidly to changing situations to achieve what this concept defines as operational adaptability."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2009-12-21
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US Army: Army Profession Campaign, Annual Report [2012]
"The AP [Army Profession] Campaign Annual Report provides findings and recommendations related to the status of the Army Profession after a yearlong campaign of dialogue and assessment. It is based on feedback from members of the Army Profession through various mediums. This report assesses the status of the Profession after a decade of persistent conflict and provides recommendations to strengthen the Army Profession. This report also provides a baseline assessment of the Army Profession to be used in subsequent years' assessments."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2012-04-02
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US Army TRADOC TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1.04: Terrorism and WMD in the Contemporary Operational Environment
"Terrorism and WMD in the Contemporary Operational Environment is a supplemental handbook to the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1, A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century. The capstone reference guide describes terrorism1 and its potential impacts on U.S. military forces in the conduct of mission operations. This supplemental handbook highlights the nature of terrorism present in a full spectrum contemporary operational environment (COE)2 and terrorist intentions to use weapons of mass destruction. Terrorist intent to obtain and use weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is one of the most serious contemporary threats to our Nation. The means of attack can span from a highly sophisticated weapon system such as a nuclear bomb to a rudimentary improvised radiological device. The specter of chemical contamination or biological infection adds to the array of weapons. Although high explosives have not been traditionally recognized as a WMD, high yield and some low yield explosives have caused significant devastating effects on people and places. The threat of WMD terrorism to the United States is present across the entire spectrum of conflict. Potential exists for WMD terrorism with individual acts of wanton damage or destruction of property or person, as well as operations conducted by organized violent groups or rogue states with social, environmental, religious, economic, or political agendas. As the United States confronts terrorism, both foreign and domestic, the most significant U.S. concerns are terrorist organizations with demonstrated global reach capabilities and their intention to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction. Yet, recent events have demonstrated that devastating weapon effects can be caused by one or two people with the will and a simple way to terrorize."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2007-08-20
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US Army TRADOC G2 Handbook No. 1: A Military Guide to Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century
"This informational handbook supports institutional training, professional military education, and operational missions for U.S. military forces in the War on Terrorism (WOT). This document provides an introduction to the nature of terrorism and recognition of terrorist threats to U.S. military forces. A common situational awareness by U.S. military forces considers three principal venues for armed forces: forces that are deployed, forces that are in transit to or from an operational mission, and forces that are primarily installation or institution support. Compiled from open source materials, this handbook promotes a 'Threats' perspective and enemy situational awareness of U.S. strategies and operations in combating terrorism. Neither a counterterrorism directive nor antiterrorism manual, this handbook complements but does not replace Army training and intelligence products on terrorism."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2007-08-15
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U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028
"United States (U.S.) Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Pamphlet 525-3- 1, 'The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations' describes how Army forces contribute to the Joint Force's principal task as defined in the unclassified 'Summary of the National Defense Strategy:' deter and defeat Chinese and Russian aggression in both competition and conflict. 'The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations' proposes detailed solutions to the specific problems posed by the militaries of post-industrial, information-based states like China and Russia. Although this concept focuses on China and Russia, the ideas also apply to other threats. The concept describes the Army in 2028, though some of the capabilities described might not be fully fielded across the entire force by that time."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2018-12-06
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Conflict Prediction Through Geo-Spatial Interpolation of Radicalization in Syrian Social Media
From the Abstract: "While there is widespread agreement amongst scholars and practitioners that processes of popular radicalization frequently underlie the generation of insurgent violence, an absence of high-resolution data has prevented existing work from directly modeling this relationship. A spatio-temporal map of extremist discourse would allow planners to monitor the emergence of social radicalization prior to the eruption of large-scale violence. Moreover, by utilizing newly developed statistical techniques for geospatial causal inference, such data can provide a basis for generating systematic predictions of the location and timing of future episodes of collective violence. As an initial demonstration of the value of this approach, this project focuses on estimating spatial-temporal quantities from the content of Twitter messages originating within Syria. Geo-spatial interpolations of these quantities will then be used to generate predictions of the locations of violent events within Syria."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
Haupt, Adam; Smith, Christopher M.
2015-09
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Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Futures Study with an Assessment of Syrian Refugee Camp Radicalization Dynamics
From the Executive Summary: "At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff J-39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) conducted a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The SMA considered drivers of instability in the region to include long-term internally displaced persons and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for 'black swan' scenarios. In support of USCENTCOM and the SMA, the TRADOC [U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command] G-2 Modeling and Simulations Directorate (MSD) employed the Athena Simulation to address a series of research questions posed by USCENTCOM to better understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. [...] This Final Report compiles the insights derived by the Athena team from research, Subject Matter Expert (SME) engagements, Athena Simulation runs, and the collaborative analysis conducted with other members of the SMA community of interest."
United States. Army Training and Doctrine Command
2020-03-03
