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Uganda: Perfection of Post-Conflict Stability or Ticking Time Bomb?
"This paper uses interviews with Ugandan local citizens, government officials, aid workers, non government organization managers, and U.S. officials to re-evaluate the current degree of stability in Northern Uganda. It provides an alternative framing to the historical narrative, which forces new considerations for understanding the causes of conflict, drivers of the cessation of violence, and explanations for why the present situation in Uganda remains precarious. The findings show that complex social, political, and economic factors cause the region to remain highly susceptible to conflict almost 10 years after the displacement of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), threatening not just Ugandan citizens but also East African stability and U.S. national security interests."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Pearson, Kristin M.; Pedersen, Alex S.
2016
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Changing Balance of Power in the Asia-pacific Region and Optimum Us Defense Strategy and Us Air Force Strategic Posture
"This paper provides: an assessment of where US interests conflict with China's, particularly in the East and South China Seas and Taiwan; an evaluation of China's maritime expansion and anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategy; an assessment of pressures that are stressing US alliances and partnerships, particularly with Japan and Taiwan; an evaluation of the US rebalance and the prospects for multilateralism and interoperability; an examination of the prospects for conflict and convergence from 2020-2040; an analysis of US access, force presence, and basing issues in the Asia-Pacific region; and an assessment of optimum US defense strategy and US Air Force strategic posture for projecting power despite various challenges."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Burgess, Stephen Franklin
2016
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Energy and the Sino-Russian Relationship
"A robust Sino-Russian energy relationship could be exceedingly valuable for each of the two states. China's energy policy is linked to its security policy and Beijing is determined to ensure that China has access to vital sources of energy well into the future. Russia is dependent on the revenues from its energy sector and Moscow is interested in increasing energy exports to Asia. On the surface it seems that a mutually beneficial energy partnership between China and Russia is inevitable, but Sino-Russian relations are fraught with challenges which impact their cooperation in the energy sector. This paper provides an overview of the world energy market and the Chinese and Russian energy industries, identifies areas of energy-related cooperation and conflict between China and Russia, and discusses the implications of Sino-Russian energy ties for the United States."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Bolt, Paul J.
2016
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Future (im)perfect?: Mapping conflict, violence and extremism in Africa
"The central challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is to build accountable, capable governments that can deliver security and inclusive growth. Research into the drivers, trends and characteristics of violence in Africa may help achieve these goals. This paper firstly presents global and African trends in armed conflict since 1960, while looking at armed conflict within the broader context of political violence using recent event data. The fatality burden between key affected countries is also discussed. The paper then turns to an examination of the high levels of non-state conflict in the Middle East and Africa compared to the rest of the world and the systemic imbalances that drive instability. Finally, challenges in measuring the relative contribution of violent Islamist extremism to political violence are presented."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Cilliers, Jakkie
2015-10
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Reconceptualizing Strategic Stability as the Foundation for Major Power Relations [PASCC Research in Progress]
"Achieving and maintaining strategic stability was the primary objective of the U.S.- Soviet relationship throughout the Cold War. During the Cold War, strategic stability was understood to be a largely quantitative calculation of balance across strategic systems and weapons. In the 21st century, however, the U.S.'s strategic relationships with Russia and China have changed, and the emphasis has shifted to avoiding tension and building a transparent, predictable, and positive set of relationships. This project will investigate the differing definitions and constructions of the concept of strategic stability among these states and regional nuclear powers. It will develop a policy-relevant understanding of the roots, contemporary manifestations, and policy implications of national characterizations of strategic stability by each of these states." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.
2015-05
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Prospects for an International Cybersecurity Regime
"Cybersecurity represents a unique and evolving challenge to US national security planners and practitioners. Global interconnectedness facilitated by the internet has created unprecedented opportunities for international commerce and communication. The evolution of cyber technology provides many positive benefits, but significant security risks come along with it. The United States must be prepared to meet a range of cyber challenges such as cyber-crime, cyber-espionage, and cyber-sabotage. Cyberspace is a domain unlike any other. There are no physical boundaries in cyberspace; actions taken by a group or an individual on one continent can precipitate an immediate effect on a target located on the other side of the world. There are no physical walls, security fences or border checkpoints to prevent malicious cyber activity from crossing international borders. The cyber domain is a virtual domain that allows for anonymity in addition to the ease and low cost of operating within it. Cyberattacks may be perpetrated by states, non-state actors, or individuals and attribution of such attacks can be exceedingly difficult. Damage sustained by cyber-attacks is generally intangible, or non-physical, and yet such attacks can have disastrous effects. Both the public and private sectors are vulnerable to cyberattack."
United States Air Force Academy; USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Holdorf, Polly M.
2015
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Extended Deterrence: Taking Stock of Current Policy and Updating the Research and PME Agendas
"Dr. James Smith, Director of the Air Force Institute for National Security Studies [INSS] made introductory remarks highlighting the importance of this study to the group of assembled experts. The workshop capped a series of studies undertaken across an international group of think tanks, universities, and government research organizations over the past five years. It asked participants to examine questions such as: (1) What are the current challenges to extended deterrence and assurance? (2) Are any of these challenges being inadequately or improperly addressed? (3) Do the current US policies, strategies, and postures meet the assurance expectations of our allies? (4) How will the anticipated regional security environments of 2015-2020 generate new requirements and expectations? (5) Which extended deterrence and assurance issues require expanded investigation and analysis? (6) Are current US deterrence and assurance strategies and postures adequately 'tailored' for each region? (7) What kinds of knowledge and skill sets will mid- to senior-level Department of Defense military and civilian personnel need in order to meet the challenges of the emerging strategic environment? INSS anticipated that the discussion would be influenced by current developments such as: (1) The Russian incursion into Crimea and the threat to Ukrainian independence and sovereignty; (2) Overall Russian intransigence and stridency; (3) Chinese military development and maritime stridency; (4) North Korean nuclear weapons and delivery system development as well as general DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] adventurism; (5) Iranian nuclear program developments."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2014-08-06
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Unauthorized Movement of Nuclear Weapons and Mistaken Shipment of Classified Missile Components: An Assessment
"The goal of the study was to provide a deeper understanding of the context of internal and external forces that led to the unauthorized movement of nuclear weapons and mistaken shipment of classified forward sections. The methodology was to: conduct a literature review of existing studies, reports, policies, and procedures; hold workshops to review direction and findings, both at the operational and senior leadership levels; and conduct interviews with senior Air Force, Department of Defense (DoD) and national security experts who played a role in our nuclear mission between 1986 to the present. […] The Air Force nuclear enterprise has been in a state of decline and has been for most of the last two decades. With the standup of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) and HAF/A10, the Air Force is working to reestablish the enterprise on positive footing. It is clear from our interviews and research that the leadership has a long and challenging path ahead of them and some significant adjustment in the current course needs to be considered. Through workshops and interviews with numerous senior leaders and experts from the nuclear enterprise, five factors were identified as the most significant 'root causes' that set the stage for the two events. Unfortunately, a true root cause analysis cannot be completed; it is not possible to return to the past and change key decisions to determine new outcomes. Thus, historical root cause analysis relies on logic and inference from experts in the field."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Nelson, Heather; Ludin, Aadina; Spencer, Michelle L.
2012-01
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Department of Defense Biological Threat Responses to the 2009-2010 H1N1 Influenza Outbreak: A Real World Exercise
"While the H1N1 pandemic was not the result of a deliberate biological attack, the threat the virus presented prompted the DoD to implement a range of force health protection measures, focusing efforts on social distancing and vaccination campaigns. The pandemic provided the DoD an opportunity to exercise disease containment planning measures and address BW response mechanisms. From experience gained during the H1N1 pandemic, the Air Force's Lt Col Ricci said the DoD is 'absolutely' in a better position if another pandemic or biological threat occurs. Referring to the review of disease containment plans and procedures, he said, 'Changes are improvements. Procedures we wrote for the [Headquarters Air Force] didn't exist before. We're definitely in a better position than we were [before the H1N1 Pandemic].'"
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Peitersen, Laura E.; Levin, Calli S.; Jones, Allison G.
2011-04
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New Triad
"On April 5, 2009 President Obama introduced his vision of reducing nuclear dangers and overcoming grave and growing threats by seeking the 'peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.' Whether or not this is an obtainable goal or even in the National Security Interests of the U.S., reducing the number of nuclear weapons is a plausible endeavor. As stated in the third objective of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) the U.S. must continue 'maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at reduced nuclear force levels.' […] Additionally, the U.S. must continue to provide assurance to allies who are covered under the U.S. nuclear deterrence umbrella. More significant reductions are possible through a mindset change regarding the traditional nuclear triad consisting of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and nuclear bombers."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Peterson, Marc A.
2010-12
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Beyond Pain: Coercing Violent Non-State Actors
"Today's global conflict environment is permeated by the existence of a diverse range of violent non-state actors (VNSA). These groups utilize subversive means to exploit and disrupt the international system, frequently committing heinous acts of violence against innocent civilians in the process. Short of war, how can nation-states effectively counter the actions of VNSA? This paper examines the proposition that VNSA can be coerced by the threat or limited use of military force. By defining the problem, adapting strategy to the problem and assessing the historical record the author makes the case that coercion is a viable option for confronting VNSA."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.
2010
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Rethinking American Strategy in Central Asia
"Over the last three years, U. S. influence in Central Asia seems to have significantly waned. Decreasing U.S. influence appears to have been accompanied by a concomitant increase in Russian and Chinese influence in the region. While some have described the competition for influence in the region a 'new great game,' others claim that such a description is overstated. It is clear, however, that the United States, Russia, and China all have interests in the region. It is important, then, for the United States to clearly define its interests and understand whether its interests conflict or complement those of Russia and China. In some cases, U.S. interests may in fact coincide with Russian and Chinese interests, and it should seek ways to cooperate with Russia and China to achieve them. Regardless of whether its interests conflict or coincide with other major players in the region, it is imperative that the United States understand the interests and challenges of the Central Asian countries. Without such an understanding, it risks pursuing policies that diverge from the goals of Central Asian countries and the United States will find it difficult if not impossible to achieve its own interests in the region."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Dunn, Jonathan
2009
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Israel and a Nuclear Iran: Implications for Arms Control, Deterrence, and Defense
The essays that comprise this report examine the principal challenges for Israel should Iran acquire nuclear weapons. The essays explore Iran's potential deployment of a nuclear capability; the implications of a nuclear empowered Iran with regard to arms control and non-proliferation efforts in the nuclear realm; the difficulty of fostering a stable Israel-Iran nuclear relationship; the critical role of missile defense; and a realistic defense of Israel's home front against the threat
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Kam, Ephraim
2008-07
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Global Insurgency Strategy and the Salafi Jihad Movement
This study from the USAF Institute for National Security Studies poses the following research questions to determine if a global Salafi Jihad insurgency is underway. "Is a diverse confederation of armed groups, linked together by a common ideology (or narrative) and strengthened by new power enhancers, conducting a global insurgency against the United States and its allies? Is this global insurgency being carried out by a radical Salafi Jihad movement (and its al Qaeda vanguard) and does it have as its goals a) to foster regime change locally in apostate Muslim states and b) international system transformation globally? Is the strategy adopted by the Salafi Jihad movement a hybrid or an adaptation of the insurgency strategy that revolutionary movements employed against states during the latter half of the 20th century? If so, what does it have in common with them and how does it differ? To answer these core research questions, a series of corollary issues will first be examined as a prelude to conceptualizing a set of requirements or model of a hypothetical global insurgency. These requirements will then be tested against existing open source information on the actions, activities, and operations of the Salafi Jihad movement and its al-Qaeda vanguard. The objective will be to determine whether preliminary evidence supports the proposition that those actions, activities, and operations, when seen through the lens of the proposed requirements, can be described, at minimum, as a global insurgency in its incipient stage of development. While these findings can only serve as preliminary indicators, the study will provide the basis for further analysis."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Shultz, Richard H., 1947-
2008-04
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Strategic Culture and Violent Non-State Actors: Weapons of Mass Destruction and Asymmetrical Operations Concepts and Cases
"In this Occasional Paper, Jim Smith lays out a conceptual basis and a series of templates for guiding analysis of culture and violent non-state actors. These templates focus on analysis of WMD acquisition and use, and on culturally driven operational campaigns. While the two follow on case studies did not specifically apply those templates, they proceeded from the same conceptual foundation, and they are certainly compatible with the intent of Smith's guidelines. Mark Long applies cultural analysis of radical Islam and al-Qaida in discussing the many factors and influences involved in the core al-Qaida group's WMD decisions. His work graphically demonstrates the complexity of such decisions for that core group, and suggests that what many may find as counter-intuitive caution plays a major role here. And Tom Johnson, in examining a tribal insurgent psychological campaign in Afghanistan, demonstrates that traditional beliefs, myths and stories, and behavioral influences can be manipulated for significant effect in countering our efforts to gain stability and legitimacy for the Afghan government. Together these papers underscore the central role of culture in analyzing and understanding non-state adversaries."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.; Johnson, Thomas H.; Long, Jerry Mark
2008-02
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Super Bugs, Resurgent and Emerging Diseases, and Pandemics: A National Security Perspective
"While not often considered, superbugs may pose a greater threat to U.S. national security than terrorists or WMDs [Weapons of Mass Destruction]. Superbugs are those bacteria that have developed immunity to a wide number of antibiotics, and along with emergent and resurgent diseases, and pandemics they may be a greater threats to our population and to the effective functioning of our military. In the context of globalization, it is difficult if not impossible to contain diseases within national boundaries. International cooperation has become a critical component in addressing world health issues. It is the opinion of these authors that health issues, of necessity, need to be regarded as security issues -- security, broadly defined. Disease has only recently featured prominently in debates on security, and this has likely resulted from a convergence of two new and salient features of security debates. First, transnational threats, such as those posed by terrorist networks, have heightened awareness of the need to control WMD -- and biological weapons are clearly in this category. Second, discourse on security has been diversified and has called for an expanded notion of what security means. In particular, the debate calls for including 'individual security,' as well as the security of territory and the sovereign state."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies; United States Air Force Academy
Grosselin, Kenneth; Pilch, Frances T.
2008
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Developing Civil-Military Competencies Among Senior National Security Practitioners in Democratizing Latin America
"This paper evaluates the process of normalizing civil-military relations in Chile and Argentina. 'Normalized' civil-military relations confine the military to the national security arena and are characterized by collaborative interactions between the civilian and military spheres. Such 'normal' or 'routinized' civil-military relations would represent a significant increase in civil-military interaction over that which has occurred in the past. The full or partial assumption of decision-making authority on the part of civilians in the defense bureaucracy would be one indicator of 'normalizing' civil-military relations. Field research in Chile and Argentina indicates that as democratic institutions mature, interest in civilian oversight of national security matters is increasing. Civilian Ministries of Defense are increasingly interested in acquisition, budgetary, and deployment issues. Effective civilian management and control, however, depends on the preparedness of the senior civilian and military leaders for their national security roles. New attitudes toward using the military to achieve national interests through the application of national power are evolving in these cases, however the expertise to conduct 'normalized' civil-military relations is still lacking. This paper examines the strategic education and professional development opportunities that senior military, civilian, and defense bureaucrats have to support their national security responsibilities. Additionally, it discusses the progress of 'normalization' of civil-military relations in the two cases and proposes recommendations for U.S. policymakers interested in positively influencing this process."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Ulrich, Marybeth Peterson
2008
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Limitations of Standoff Firepower-Based Operations: On Standoff Warfare, Maneuver, and Decision
This document takes a critical look at dramatic changes in the Israel Defense Forces and other Western militaries regarding force structure and force utilization concepts, based on a preference for standoff precision firepower over classic maneuver. Using the Second Lebanon War as a primary case study, the monograph examines some of the limitations inherent in standoff fire capability and argues that by itself it is generally incapable of bringing the enemy to strategic collapse. Ron Tira contends that given Israel's security reality, it seems there is no replacing the tactical battlefield that includes maneuvering and conquering territory.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Tira, Ron
2007-03
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Homeland Security and Homeland Defense: Definitions, Roles, Seams, and Gaps [powerpoint]
This presentation describes homeland security and homeland defense definitions, roles, seams, and gaps. It begins with conceptual and structural foundations: National Defense and National Security, Civil Defense and Emergency Management, and legacies to HLS and HLD. In regards to homeland security post Cold War, there is a changing international landscape, new threats for the U.S. This presentation reviews homeland security and homeland defense after 9/11: post Cold War issues, homeland defense on military agenda, National Guard-expanded mission focus, and the Hart/Rudman Commission. The gaps in homeland security and homeland defense became visible during Hurricane Katrina.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Alarid, Megan
2007-02
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Missile Defense and Poland's Transatlantic Relationship: Stormy Water Ahead
"The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems by potential enemies is an ongoing security issue for the United States and its allies abroad. At the forefront confronting this threat is the United States' Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). According to the Missile Defense Agency, the BMDS is a collection of elements and components that are integrated to achieve the best possible performance against a full range of potential threats. Since the United States withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, the Missile Defense Agency has taken crucial steps to integrating the collective efforts of the Department of Defense to provide missile defense. A critical step is acquiring and positively engaging allies in this effort. International cooperation for the success of missile defense is essential. Regional efforts to acquire missile defense capabilities can be integrated with U.S. global missile defense priorities and objectives. Of particular note, lately, defense planners have considered the place of the proposed U.S. missile defense capabilities being planned in Poland and the Czech Republic. Should this leg of BMDS be deployed? Should it be integrated into NATO's strategic concept and NATO's emerging missile defense program, or should it be deployed along bilateral lines eschewing a multilateral context? This project will address these questions in addition to two additional concerns. First, it explores the practical implications of deploying components of BMDS with our new NATO ally Poland. Poland initially expressed a willingness to cooperate on ballistic missile defense. Lately, this zeal has cooled and the wisdom of deploying a system in Poland is not immediately obvious. This project will evaluate the strategic value of doing so in light of the project's second objective, the Russian response."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Sacko, David H.
2007
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Protecting Critical Rail Infrastructure
"Terrorist attacks and accidents involving rail systems have resulted in death and destruction. The attacks in Madrid and London are good indications of the potential effects of a terrorist attack on the United States rail systems. Three years after the Madrid bombings, the United States has made little progress in securing its rail systems. This paper advocates that the United States develop a long-range, comprehensive, integrated National Transportation Strategy to address security of the systems and the demand to move more people and cargo."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Capra, Gregory S.
2006-12
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Information Warfare Arms Control: Risks and Costs
"Since the end of the 1991 Gulf War, information warfare has taken a prominent role in transforming the military as envisioned in Joint Vision 2010. However, due to the rapid changes in information technologies and the low cost, wide availability and high payoff of information warfare weapons, some have seen it as a destabilizing influence and have called for international arms control agreements to govern its use. Although the international legal system and the modern concept of arms control were able to provide for national and international collective security during the Cold War, information warfare presents many challenges that question their viability. The most significant challenges are to the international legal system, which include undermining the ordering principle of the post-Westphalian international system. Despite these challenges, an information warfare arms control regime is still achievable; however, at potentially significant costs and risks. Although some of these costs would be similar to previous nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons arms control agreements, the lack of available data makes it difficult to determine the expected costs with any degree of accuracy. In addition, some of these costs cannot be expressed in budgetary terms; therefore, they are presented as risks and include increased proliferation, intelligence loss, cheating, and a false sense of security. Since there are also political risks by not becoming a signatory to international agreements on this issue, the U.S. would be best served by staying engaged in the discourse to shape the norm for information warfare in the international arena."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thom, Maxie C.
2006-03
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International Security Negotiations: Lessons Learned from Negotiating with the Russians on Nuclear Arms
"This paper examines arms control and non-proliferation negotiations during and after the Cold War. To make the analysis of this vast topic manageable, the discussion concentrates on negotiating with the Russians (recognizing that the USSR was more than Russia) and, primarily, on negotiations to eliminate or control nuclear arms. American Cold War policy was focused largely through the lens of how to contain and deter Russian expansion and aggression. The intense military competition was at the heart of this struggle, and the nuclear balance was at the heart of the military strategies on both sides. [...] The point of the discussion is not analysis for analysis' sake but to search for lessons that might be of value to American policy today and in the future."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Wheeler, Michael O.
2006-02
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Rapid Urban Settlement, Violence, and the Democratizing State: Toward an Understanding?
"As one travels the streets of Metro Manila, there's that sensorial assault so familiar in the crowded and impoverished districts of large urban areas around the world: smells from cooking and rot, noise from perilous vehicles wending their ways through choked and chaotic streets, and structures cobbled together so haphazardly it is difficult to believe that anyone lives within them. The movement of, quite literally, masses of people from rural areas to urban ones is hardly an unnoticed phenomenon in the past decade, but what has changed markedly is the rise in political violence targeting urban centers. Despite the rapid growth in other cities in Asia, most notably in China and India, Metro Manila remains a unique example of a mega-city in the Asia-Pacific region. When one thinks of Manila, it is more useful to think not of one well-defined urban core, but rather a series of ill-defined areas spanning twelve cities and five municipalities-a combined area of about 636 square kilometers. Poverty reigns for a majority of Metro Manila's residents, casting the pallor of despair over the entire city. A family of six residing in Metro Manila should earn about $350 per month-the current poverty threshold-but instead about 60 percent of the residents earn less. Through the lens of Metro Manila and its contemporary experiences, this study explores the security implications of rapid urbanization as an enabler of political violence. Is there a definitive link between urban growth and the level of violence, particularly political violence? It appears that cities tend to have materially higher crime rates than rural areas. By examining the realm of ungoverned spaces within emergent mega-cities, violent actors, especially terrorists, and the impact from and to political liberalization, the author hopes to provide some insights into whether rapid urbanization enables all forms of extra-legal behavior-particularly political violence and terrorism. Certainly, studying urbanization and its socio-economic impact is hardly new, but the twinned aspects of an increasingly hyperurban growth in many parts of the developing world and the heightened interest in the rise of political violence make this an increasingly relevant topic."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Derdzinski, Joseph L.
2006
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Biowarfare Lessons, Emerging Biosecurity Issues, and Ways to Monitor Dual-Use Biotechnology Trends in the Future
"The study summarizes policy lessons for future efforts to monitor possible covert biological warfare programs based on recent investigations of past Iraqi and South African covert biowarfare programs. This comparative case study approach identified several commonalities in past biowarfare programs in developing countries. One was a tendency of governments to recruit some of the brightest graduate students studying in several different fields of science and send them abroad for advanced studies at western universities. This trend changed dramatically after the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States, and it is now much more likely that future scientists working for government-sponsored bioweapons programs or for terrorist groups in the developing world will receive their advanced training at nonwestern institutions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Purkitt, Helen E., 1950-
2005-09
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Art of Peace: Dissuading China from Developing Counter-Space Weapons
"This paper assesses the viability of applying dissuasion towards the development of offensive counter-space (OCS) systems by China. As a relatively new defense policy and certainly one that has never been explicitly applied previously, the paper delves into the characteristics prescribed by recent US planning documents to develop a strategy that more appropriately addresses current security concerns. Implicitly, dissuasion is intended to prevent future arms races with China through well-placed US actions that channel adversarial efforts in a direction desired by Washington. Several things become clear during this investigation. First, very little scholarly work exists discussing the concept of dissuasion and the mechanisms used to formulate, implement, and execute it as a defense policy. Second, while an admirable attempt to lessen the need for more costly policy options such as deterrence and defeat, dissuasion will not prevent China from developing counter-space weapons, especially since ground-based jammers that target satellite links have already proven effective. Third, the best chance of dissuading China's efforts to acquire space-based OCS systems is through international treaties and laws."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2005-08
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Turbulent Arena: Global Effects Against Non-State Adversaries
"This is the 58th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Violent non-state actors (VNSA) pose a pressing challenge to human and national security across the geo-political landscape. In the midst of a global war against terrorism, collective violent action thrives as a strategy of groups ranging from the al Qaida network to Maoist rebels of Nepal to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The dark dynamics of globalization enable VNSAs to prosper in a turbulent international environment marked by deepening roots of violence, failures in governance, and burgeoning illicit trade in guns, drugs, and humans. With few exceptions, VNSAs play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. Successfully countering VNSAs across the geo-political landscape is complicated by a host of factors, including the adaptive character of the threat and the difficulty of developing and implementing a coherent strategy that engenders measurable victories."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2005-06
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Constructing 'The Other': Ethno-Religious Identity In Separatist Movements In Southeast Asia
From the thesis abstract: "In Southeast Asia, three main separatist minorities are often studied: the Moros of the southern Philippines, the Acehenese on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia, and the Thai-Malay Muslims in southern Thailand. Their persisting grievances and pursuits of self-determination include disputes over ancestral land, socio-economic opportunity, and exclusion from participation in and lack of recognition by the state apparatus. Consequently, members within these minority groups often take up arms against the state. Understanding separatist movements in Southeast Asia is more than recognizing political and socio-economic grievances. US policymakers must take into account how and why a separate ethnoreligious identity is constructed and implemented to achieve a particular aim. The powerful notion of 'other' mobilizes general support and gives legitimacy to goals and grievances in the pursuit of a specific political goal: a separate, Islamic state. Studying constructed and implemented identities will help policymakers contextualize regional instability, political violence, terrorism linkages, and at the same time, improve relations, bolster institutional capabilities, and promote human rights. However, the focus here will not be merely on the 'who' and 'why' questions. Exploring political and socio-economic grievances are indeed necessary and important in understanding political agendas and violent actions, as well as in the formulation of foreign policy. It is equally necessary and important, however, to explain how and why a separate ethno-religious identity is created and mobilized to reinforce political goals. The 'whys' of separatist movements and violence-the historical, territorial, political, and socio-economic grievances-are not the focus of this paper. It will be assumed that these groups have such grievances against the state and that there are other ethnicities and religions that co-exist within the countries."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Bowman, Robin L.
2005
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Armed Groups: A Tier-One Security Priority
"Non-state armed groups pose a major security challenge to the United States, even without their acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. Armed groups have now developed global capabilities to strike at high-value political, economic, population, and symbolic targets as well as level strategic blows. They seek not only local but also regional and global influence. Al Qaeda demonstrated this capacity on 9/11. It forced the United States to radically change its antiterrorism policy. To manage, neutralize, or utilize the phenomenon of armed groups an appreciable understanding of these actors--as well as the threats and opportunities that flow from them--is needed."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Farah, Douglas; Lochard, Itamara V.; Shultz, Richard H., 1947-
2004-09
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Perspectives on Arms Control
"The three papers in this Occasional Paper were presented on a panel, 'Diplomacy and Arms Control,' organized in this case by Glen Segell and presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association held at Montreal, Quebec in March 2004. Michael Wheeler sets arms control within a focused diplomatic and historical perspective. He traces the important and integral place of arms control diplomacy to United States traditions, and projects continuing relevance for arms control within that context well into the future. James Smith then approaches the topic from a process and policy perspective. He suggests that strategic arms control, nonproliferation, and counterproliferation have developed and continue as parallel tracks in United States policy, and proposes a combined policy construct for future policy effectiveness and efficiency. Glen Segell completes this set of lenses by addressing the European perspective on arms control, including the important comparative views of United States arms control policy and practice as seen through European eyes. He sees general harmony in United States and European efforts and interests, but also highlights areas of divergence and policy concern. Together the three papers present a broad and complementary package that reinforces a continuing and important role for 'arms control' into the near- and mid-term future."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.; Wheeler, Michael; Segell, Glen M.
2004-07
