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Prospects for a Conventional Arms Reduction Treaty and Confidence-Building Measures in Northeast Asia
The paper is presented in four sections. The first contains a review of some considerations for a future NEA multilateral forum, and it reviews the proposal for conventional arms reduction and CSBMs in the NEA region. The second section highlights some ongoing activity currently promoting confidence and trust in the region. These activities serve as possible foundations for future activity that would promote confidence and trust among the Northeast Asian states. The third section explores some possible options for building openness and trust among states in the region that would one day provide a basis for a regional security forum. The Northeast Asian states could meet in a forum that would not be a "security forum," but one that focuses on other areas of interest. This "interim" multilateral Forum would transition to a Northeast Asian Security Forum (NEASF) once the states, through this "interim" Forum, have developed the necessary trust and confidence to engage in a security dialogue. The fourth section is the most ambitious. It describes a proposed Northeast Asia Security Forum including the participating states and organizations. In addition to the participants, it outlines a number of working groups subordinate to the Forum that would report to the Forum. Finally, there is a brief discussion of the recent White House decision to ease some sanctions on North Korea with the understanding that North Korea would not test long-range missiles of any kind as the US and North Korea work towards normalizing relations and possible next steps.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Jenkins, Bonnie D.
2000-08
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Viability of U.S. Anti-Satellite Policy: Moving Toward Space Control
The United States has the highest reliance on satellites of any country in the world, not only in the national security sector, but the private sector as well. Although it has recognized the importance of protecting satellites as strategic assets since their inception, different times and circumstances have yielded different approaches regarding how vigorously this should be accomplished. During most of the Cold War, the United States' desire to protect its satellites was overridden by wanting to avoid what were considered potentially destabilizing efforts, and what seemed as an inevitable arms race in space that would result from those latter efforts. During the Reagan Administration, however, the United States tacitly engaged in a space arms race with the Soviet Union, called the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or Star Wars). This paper suggests that the varied strategic arguments that pervaded in past ASAT debates are now, for the most part, gone. Another broader argument has, however, replaced them, and in some ways presents a more nuanced organizational issue. That issue concerns determination of the relative importance of space weaponry designed toward negating space-based threats, the traditional role of ASATs, within the parameters of U.S. space control capabilities specifically and military planning generally. In that context, it is argued that although past political impediments to the development of ASATs have dissipated, ASAT development will likely continue conservatively much as it has in the past, now as a part of a broader spectrum of efforts. In a change from the past, however, organizational politics and fiscal prioritization rather than macro strategic political and public debate now determine such a course.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Johnson-Freese, Joan
2000-01
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Aerospace Power in Urban Warfare: Beware the Hornet's Nest
In this paper, the author examines the employment of aerospace power in the increasingly important urban operational environment. Aerospace technologies and systems offer alternatives and important adjuncts to surface forces in the urban arena, but significant obstacles and critical considerations must be brought into planning for such operations. Each of these aspects of aerospace power demands greater thought and analysis, which is why this occasional paper is presented to help focus that attention.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Hunt, Peter C.
2001-05
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Controlling Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Obstacles and Opportunities
As the new millennium begins the United States finds itself facing a much-diminished Russian competitor that still holds a significant advantage in at least one category of weapons of mass destruction; non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW). Russia still has thousands of these warheads, as well as multiple means for their delivery. Despite the difficulties associated with establishing compliance with non-binding unilateral initiatives, the signs seem to indicate that Russia has not completely honored its PNI commitments of a decade ago. In fact, Russia appears to be adjusting its national security doctrine to place even greater emphasis on nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the United States is trying to decide what value such weapons provide to its own security, and is considering whether to keep or eliminate its remaining stockpile. As part of this consideration, the U.S. government is debating the role of arms control in stabilizing the strategic (and sub-strategic) balances with Russia and China in Europe and Asia. This book addresses many of the fundamental issues surrounding non-strategic nuclear weapons. It is the result of a conference on NSNW held November 2-3, 2000 at the Airlie Center in Warrenton, Virginia. Some 75 experts in arms control, nuclear weapons, and national security strategy from both sides of the political spectrum attended the workshop, which featured formal panel presentations and lively discussion on the topic. The conference was hosted by the National Security Policy Division, Nuclear and Counter-proliferation Directorate, Headquarters United States Air Force (AF/XONP). Most of the chapters in this book are the result of presentations at the conference.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Larsen, Jeffrey Arthur, 1954-; Klingenberger, Kurt J.
2001-06
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Next Peace Operation: U.S. Air Force Issues and Perspective's
Peace operations continue to evolve. With each successive operation, doctrine and organizational arrangements are updated to reflect past experiences. The traditional peacekeeping conducted during the Cold War is largely a thing of the past; new forms of conflict and new participants have changed the nature of peacekeeping dramatically. In few cases can blue-helmeted observers from non-US countries expect to merely stand between two warring states and observe a cease-fire. Modern peacekeeping frequently involves non-state actors, often within a single country, and may include missions such as humanitarian assistance, refugee resettlement, and nation-building. American involvement has increased significantly since the end of the Cold War, and the participation of civilian and private relief agencies adds new stresses to operational principles such as "objective" and "unity of command." The United States military will have to be flexible enough to support peace operations with varying operational objectives and constraints. This study examines the role of the Air Force in future peace operations. For simplicity's sake, it uses the term "peacekeeping" to encompass both impartial peacekeeping and more coercive peace enforcement. The authors draw upon the experience of the US and other nations to improve understanding of how peacekeeping forces operate and shed light on how best to employ American forces. This paper reviews existing US military doctrine and examines the impact, both positive and negative, that peacekeeping has on combat readiness. The authors then suggest areas for consideration regarding the preparation for and conduct of peace operations.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Cukierman, Jeremy D.; Thomas, William C., 1966-
1999-05
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Effects, Targets and Tools: A Primer for U.S. Strategy and an Application Examining the Security Dynamics of Northeast Asia
This study develops and applies an effects-based model for US security strategy in Northeast Asia. International security theories and broad military strategies shape policy, but strategists need more specific tools. To address this analytical problem, effects-based concepts from military doctrine are blended with general theoretical distinctions to yield an Effects, Targets, and Tools (ETT) operating framework for strategy. To use the ETT framework, a strategist locates desired effects along two spectra defined in terms of preventing or causing behavior. Desired effects toward adversaries are presented as a spectrum of deterrence-compliance, or defense-coercion, depending on the tools used to achieve those effects. Desired effects toward partners are similarly presented as dissuasion-persuasion, or security inducement. Targets to achieve such effects are chosen to affect an adversary's or partner's will or capabilities. Tools used to influence targets are defined as psychological, which support the effects of deterrence-compliance (adversary) or dissuasion-persuasion (partner), or physical in nature, which support the effects of defense-coercion (adversary) or security-inducement (partner).
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Drohan, Thomas Alan
2003-06
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Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries
Inter-state war no longer dominates the landscape of modern conflict. Rather, collective violence and challenges to the international system come increasingly from violent non-state actors (VNSA). With few exceptions, VNSA play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. The broad spectrum of objectives and asymmetric methods of these contemporary Barbary Pirates fractures our traditional conceptions of deterrence and warfighting. We contend that deterrence remains a viable strategy for meeting their challenge if adapted to an understanding of VNSA as dynamic biological systems. The prolonged utility of deterrence hinges on insight into VNSA life cycles and a broader conception of the psychology inherent to organizational decision-making. Bundled as "broad biological deterrence" (BBD), we develop deterrent strategies that tackle the VNSA threat throughout its life cycle.
However, we also realize that deterrence may not work in every case. This sets up a counter-VNSA (C-VNSA) strategy that goes beyond coercion to the defeat of the enemy. At its core, our CVNSA strategy defeats a VNSA by: 1) denying the negative entropy, or stores of energy, required to survive attack; and 2) disrupting congruence, or fit, among sub-systems to achieve system failure. By also understanding the indicators of organizational change during its developmental life-cycle, preemptory defeat before the VNSA reaches maturity becomes feasible. Importantly, our approach allows for measuring campaign progress by assessing changes in VNSA effectiveness. Thus armed, prospects improve for inter- and intra-governmental collaboration, on-target intelligence collection and analysis, and successful execution of a multi-facetted, effects-based strategy.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2004-03
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Five Minutes Past Midnight: The Clear and Present Danger of Nuclear Weapons Grade Fissile Materials (February 1996)
"Growing stockpiles of nuclear weapons grade fissile materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) are a 'clear and present danger' to international security. Much of this material is uncontrolled and unsecured in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Access to these materials is the primary technical barrier to a nuclear weapons capability since the technology know-how for a bomb making is available in the world scientific community. Strategies to convince proliferators to give up their nuclear ambitions are problematic since those ambitions are a party of largest regional security. There is no national material control and accounting in Russia. No one knows exactly how much fissile materials they have, and if any is missing. A bankrupt atomic energy industry, unpaid employees and little or no security has created a climate in which more and more fissile materials will likely be sold in black markets or diverted to clandestine nuclear weapons programs or transnational terrorist groups. Control over these materials will ultimately rely on the continuous and simultaneous exercise of several measures. While there is little one can do now to stop a determined proliferator, over time international consensus and a strengthened non-proliferation regime will convince proliferators that the costs outweigh the gains."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Roberts, Guy B.
1996-02
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Arms Control Without Arms Control: The Failure of The Biological Weapons Convention Protocol and a New Paradigm for Fighting the Threat of Biological Weapons
After being terrorized by the October 2001 anthrax attacks..., it was anticipated that the United States would support a new protocol touted as a new compliance mechanism for strengthening the Biological Warfare Convention (BWC). However, in December 2001, the United States rejected the protocol as ineffective and fatally flawed. Backed by years of study and test inspections, the United States argued that traditional arms control approaches to biologically based substances can not work...Despite the rejection of the protocol, the United States and the rest of the world recognize the tremendous threat biological weapons pose to peace and international security. Despite the inability to craft effective verification measures, the prohibitory norm remains strong as evidenced by the fact that no country admits to developing or possessing biological weapons (BW). Still, there are a number of states and terrorist groups actively seeking to acquire and use these weapons. In recognition of the threat, the United States advocated moving beyond signing up to another ineffective arms control agreement and finding a new way to focus on a strengthened international commitment to combat the BW threat in all its forms.. Using the US proposal as a blueprint, the states parties to the BWC adopted a modest work program to strengthen the implementation of and compliance with the legal obligations of the Convention. The time for "better-than-nothing" proposals is over. A united world, acting in concert across a broad front of areas utilizing the full panoply of financial, diplomatic, economic, and military resources at our disposal, with the firm determination to rid the world of these weapons of terror, is our best hope for success.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Roberts, Guy B.
2003-03
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Egypt as a Failing State: Implications for US National Security
"Short-term solutions to more profound, long-term problems are not sufficient to safeguard United States interests in the Middle East. This paper challenges the current US policy towards Egypt and its underlying assumption that regime stability supercedes a US interest in true political development. The key question in this paper queries why the status quo policy towards Egypt is no longer fulfilling US objectives when it has been a successful pillar for US Middle East policy in the past. In the wake of terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 leading to the US war on terror, along with the continued violence between the Palestinians and Israelis, the potential for acute political violence within Egypt is high. This study presents two scenario-driven US policy options and recommends a realpolitik view of democratization for Egypt. The United States can no longer afford to be timid about the power of democracy. For the United States, pushing for political systems that are accountable to their populations should not be viewed in an idealistic, normative sense, but rather in a strategic context. This paper contends that democracy is a security imperative for the post- 9/11 world." -- Executive Summary
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Beitler, Ruth M.; Jebb, Cindy R.
2003-07
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Perspectives on Arms Control
"The three papers in this Occasional Paper were presented on a panel, 'Diplomacy and Arms Control,' organized in this case by Glen Segell and presented at the 45th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association held at Montreal, Quebec in March 2004. Michael Wheeler sets arms control within a focused diplomatic and historical perspective. He traces the important and integral place of arms control diplomacy to United States traditions, and projects continuing relevance for arms control within that context well into the future. James Smith then approaches the topic from a process and policy perspective. He suggests that strategic arms control, nonproliferation, and counterproliferation have developed and continue as parallel tracks in United States policy, and proposes a combined policy construct for future policy effectiveness and efficiency. Glen Segell completes this set of lenses by addressing the European perspective on arms control, including the important comparative views of United States arms control policy and practice as seen through European eyes. He sees general harmony in United States and European efforts and interests, but also highlights areas of divergence and policy concern. Together the three papers present a broad and complementary package that reinforces a continuing and important role for 'arms control' into the near- and mid-term future."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.; Wheeler, Michael; Segell, Glen M.
2004-07
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Armed Groups: A Tier-One Security Priority
"Non-state armed groups pose a major security challenge to the United States, even without their acquisition of weapons of mass destruction. Armed groups have now developed global capabilities to strike at high-value political, economic, population, and symbolic targets as well as level strategic blows. They seek not only local but also regional and global influence. Al Qaeda demonstrated this capacity on 9/11. It forced the United States to radically change its antiterrorism policy. To manage, neutralize, or utilize the phenomenon of armed groups an appreciable understanding of these actors--as well as the threats and opportunities that flow from them--is needed."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Farah, Douglas; Lochard, Itamara V.; Shultz, Richard H., 1947-
2004-09
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Turbulent Arena: Global Effects Against Non-State Adversaries
"This is the 58th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Violent non-state actors (VNSA) pose a pressing challenge to human and national security across the geo-political landscape. In the midst of a global war against terrorism, collective violent action thrives as a strategy of groups ranging from the al Qaida network to Maoist rebels of Nepal to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The dark dynamics of globalization enable VNSAs to prosper in a turbulent international environment marked by deepening roots of violence, failures in governance, and burgeoning illicit trade in guns, drugs, and humans. With few exceptions, VNSAs play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. Successfully countering VNSAs across the geo-political landscape is complicated by a host of factors, including the adaptive character of the threat and the difficulty of developing and implementing a coherent strategy that engenders measurable victories."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2005-06
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Rapid Urban Settlement, Violence, and the Democratizing State: Toward an Understanding?
"As one travels the streets of Metro Manila, there's that sensorial assault so familiar in the crowded and impoverished districts of large urban areas around the world: smells from cooking and rot, noise from perilous vehicles wending their ways through choked and chaotic streets, and structures cobbled together so haphazardly it is difficult to believe that anyone lives within them. The movement of, quite literally, masses of people from rural areas to urban ones is hardly an unnoticed phenomenon in the past decade, but what has changed markedly is the rise in political violence targeting urban centers. Despite the rapid growth in other cities in Asia, most notably in China and India, Metro Manila remains a unique example of a mega-city in the Asia-Pacific region. When one thinks of Manila, it is more useful to think not of one well-defined urban core, but rather a series of ill-defined areas spanning twelve cities and five municipalities-a combined area of about 636 square kilometers. Poverty reigns for a majority of Metro Manila's residents, casting the pallor of despair over the entire city. A family of six residing in Metro Manila should earn about $350 per month-the current poverty threshold-but instead about 60 percent of the residents earn less. Through the lens of Metro Manila and its contemporary experiences, this study explores the security implications of rapid urbanization as an enabler of political violence. Is there a definitive link between urban growth and the level of violence, particularly political violence? It appears that cities tend to have materially higher crime rates than rural areas. By examining the realm of ungoverned spaces within emergent mega-cities, violent actors, especially terrorists, and the impact from and to political liberalization, the author hopes to provide some insights into whether rapid urbanization enables all forms of extra-legal behavior-particularly political violence and terrorism. Certainly, studying urbanization and its socio-economic impact is hardly new, but the twinned aspects of an increasingly hyperurban growth in many parts of the developing world and the heightened interest in the rise of political violence make this an increasingly relevant topic."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Derdzinski, Joseph L.
2006
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Department of Defense Biological Threat Responses to the 2009-2010 H1N1 Influenza Outbreak: A Real World Exercise
"While the H1N1 pandemic was not the result of a deliberate biological attack, the threat the virus presented prompted the DoD to implement a range of force health protection measures, focusing efforts on social distancing and vaccination campaigns. The pandemic provided the DoD an opportunity to exercise disease containment planning measures and address BW response mechanisms. From experience gained during the H1N1 pandemic, the Air Force's Lt Col Ricci said the DoD is 'absolutely' in a better position if another pandemic or biological threat occurs. Referring to the review of disease containment plans and procedures, he said, 'Changes are improvements. Procedures we wrote for the [Headquarters Air Force] didn't exist before. We're definitely in a better position than we were [before the H1N1 Pandemic].'"
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Peitersen, Laura E.; Levin, Calli S.; Jones, Allison G.
2011-04
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New Triad
"On April 5, 2009 President Obama introduced his vision of reducing nuclear dangers and overcoming grave and growing threats by seeking the 'peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.' Whether or not this is an obtainable goal or even in the National Security Interests of the U.S., reducing the number of nuclear weapons is a plausible endeavor. As stated in the third objective of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) the U.S. must continue 'maintaining strategic deterrence and stability at reduced nuclear force levels.' […] Additionally, the U.S. must continue to provide assurance to allies who are covered under the U.S. nuclear deterrence umbrella. More significant reductions are possible through a mindset change regarding the traditional nuclear triad consisting of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) and nuclear bombers."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Peterson, Marc A.
2010-12
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Unauthorized Movement of Nuclear Weapons and Mistaken Shipment of Classified Missile Components: An Assessment
"The goal of the study was to provide a deeper understanding of the context of internal and external forces that led to the unauthorized movement of nuclear weapons and mistaken shipment of classified forward sections. The methodology was to: conduct a literature review of existing studies, reports, policies, and procedures; hold workshops to review direction and findings, both at the operational and senior leadership levels; and conduct interviews with senior Air Force, Department of Defense (DoD) and national security experts who played a role in our nuclear mission between 1986 to the present. […] The Air Force nuclear enterprise has been in a state of decline and has been for most of the last two decades. With the standup of Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) and HAF/A10, the Air Force is working to reestablish the enterprise on positive footing. It is clear from our interviews and research that the leadership has a long and challenging path ahead of them and some significant adjustment in the current course needs to be considered. Through workshops and interviews with numerous senior leaders and experts from the nuclear enterprise, five factors were identified as the most significant 'root causes' that set the stage for the two events. Unfortunately, a true root cause analysis cannot be completed; it is not possible to return to the past and change key decisions to determine new outcomes. Thus, historical root cause analysis relies on logic and inference from experts in the field."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Nelson, Heather; Ludin, Aadina; Spencer, Michelle L.
2012-01
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Protecting Critical Rail Infrastructure
"Terrorist attacks and accidents involving rail systems have resulted in death and destruction. The attacks in Madrid and London are good indications of the potential effects of a terrorist attack on the United States rail systems. Three years after the Madrid bombings, the United States has made little progress in securing its rail systems. This paper advocates that the United States develop a long-range, comprehensive, integrated National Transportation Strategy to address security of the systems and the demand to move more people and cargo."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Capra, Gregory S.
2006-12
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Missile Defense and Poland's Transatlantic Relationship: Stormy Water Ahead
"The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems by potential enemies is an ongoing security issue for the United States and its allies abroad. At the forefront confronting this threat is the United States' Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). According to the Missile Defense Agency, the BMDS is a collection of elements and components that are integrated to achieve the best possible performance against a full range of potential threats. Since the United States withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, the Missile Defense Agency has taken crucial steps to integrating the collective efforts of the Department of Defense to provide missile defense. A critical step is acquiring and positively engaging allies in this effort. International cooperation for the success of missile defense is essential. Regional efforts to acquire missile defense capabilities can be integrated with U.S. global missile defense priorities and objectives. Of particular note, lately, defense planners have considered the place of the proposed U.S. missile defense capabilities being planned in Poland and the Czech Republic. Should this leg of BMDS be deployed? Should it be integrated into NATO's strategic concept and NATO's emerging missile defense program, or should it be deployed along bilateral lines eschewing a multilateral context? This project will address these questions in addition to two additional concerns. First, it explores the practical implications of deploying components of BMDS with our new NATO ally Poland. Poland initially expressed a willingness to cooperate on ballistic missile defense. Lately, this zeal has cooled and the wisdom of deploying a system in Poland is not immediately obvious. This project will evaluate the strategic value of doing so in light of the project's second objective, the Russian response."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Sacko, David H.
2007
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Art of Peace: Dissuading China from Developing Counter-Space Weapons
"This paper assesses the viability of applying dissuasion towards the development of offensive counter-space (OCS) systems by China. As a relatively new defense policy and certainly one that has never been explicitly applied previously, the paper delves into the characteristics prescribed by recent US planning documents to develop a strategy that more appropriately addresses current security concerns. Implicitly, dissuasion is intended to prevent future arms races with China through well-placed US actions that channel adversarial efforts in a direction desired by Washington. Several things become clear during this investigation. First, very little scholarly work exists discussing the concept of dissuasion and the mechanisms used to formulate, implement, and execute it as a defense policy. Second, while an admirable attempt to lessen the need for more costly policy options such as deterrence and defeat, dissuasion will not prevent China from developing counter-space weapons, especially since ground-based jammers that target satellite links have already proven effective. Third, the best chance of dissuading China's efforts to acquire space-based OCS systems is through international treaties and laws."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2005-08
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Developing Civil-Military Competencies Among Senior National Security Practitioners in Democratizing Latin America
"This paper evaluates the process of normalizing civil-military relations in Chile and Argentina. 'Normalized' civil-military relations confine the military to the national security arena and are characterized by collaborative interactions between the civilian and military spheres. Such 'normal' or 'routinized' civil-military relations would represent a significant increase in civil-military interaction over that which has occurred in the past. The full or partial assumption of decision-making authority on the part of civilians in the defense bureaucracy would be one indicator of 'normalizing' civil-military relations. Field research in Chile and Argentina indicates that as democratic institutions mature, interest in civilian oversight of national security matters is increasing. Civilian Ministries of Defense are increasingly interested in acquisition, budgetary, and deployment issues. Effective civilian management and control, however, depends on the preparedness of the senior civilian and military leaders for their national security roles. New attitudes toward using the military to achieve national interests through the application of national power are evolving in these cases, however the expertise to conduct 'normalized' civil-military relations is still lacking. This paper examines the strategic education and professional development opportunities that senior military, civilian, and defense bureaucrats have to support their national security responsibilities. Additionally, it discusses the progress of 'normalization' of civil-military relations in the two cases and proposes recommendations for U.S. policymakers interested in positively influencing this process."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Ulrich, Marybeth Peterson
2008
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Rethinking American Strategy in Central Asia
"Over the last three years, U. S. influence in Central Asia seems to have significantly waned. Decreasing U.S. influence appears to have been accompanied by a concomitant increase in Russian and Chinese influence in the region. While some have described the competition for influence in the region a 'new great game,' others claim that such a description is overstated. It is clear, however, that the United States, Russia, and China all have interests in the region. It is important, then, for the United States to clearly define its interests and understand whether its interests conflict or complement those of Russia and China. In some cases, U.S. interests may in fact coincide with Russian and Chinese interests, and it should seek ways to cooperate with Russia and China to achieve them. Regardless of whether its interests conflict or coincide with other major players in the region, it is imperative that the United States understand the interests and challenges of the Central Asian countries. Without such an understanding, it risks pursuing policies that diverge from the goals of Central Asian countries and the United States will find it difficult if not impossible to achieve its own interests in the region."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Dunn, Jonathan
2009
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Energy and the Sino-Russian Relationship
"A robust Sino-Russian energy relationship could be exceedingly valuable for each of the two states. China's energy policy is linked to its security policy and Beijing is determined to ensure that China has access to vital sources of energy well into the future. Russia is dependent on the revenues from its energy sector and Moscow is interested in increasing energy exports to Asia. On the surface it seems that a mutually beneficial energy partnership between China and Russia is inevitable, but Sino-Russian relations are fraught with challenges which impact their cooperation in the energy sector. This paper provides an overview of the world energy market and the Chinese and Russian energy industries, identifies areas of energy-related cooperation and conflict between China and Russia, and discusses the implications of Sino-Russian energy ties for the United States."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Bolt, Paul J.
2016
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Prospects for an International Cybersecurity Regime
"Cybersecurity represents a unique and evolving challenge to US national security planners and practitioners. Global interconnectedness facilitated by the internet has created unprecedented opportunities for international commerce and communication. The evolution of cyber technology provides many positive benefits, but significant security risks come along with it. The United States must be prepared to meet a range of cyber challenges such as cyber-crime, cyber-espionage, and cyber-sabotage. Cyberspace is a domain unlike any other. There are no physical boundaries in cyberspace; actions taken by a group or an individual on one continent can precipitate an immediate effect on a target located on the other side of the world. There are no physical walls, security fences or border checkpoints to prevent malicious cyber activity from crossing international borders. The cyber domain is a virtual domain that allows for anonymity in addition to the ease and low cost of operating within it. Cyberattacks may be perpetrated by states, non-state actors, or individuals and attribution of such attacks can be exceedingly difficult. Damage sustained by cyber-attacks is generally intangible, or non-physical, and yet such attacks can have disastrous effects. Both the public and private sectors are vulnerable to cyberattack."
United States Air Force Academy; USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Holdorf, Polly M.
2015
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Super Bugs, Resurgent and Emerging Diseases, and Pandemics: A National Security Perspective
"While not often considered, superbugs may pose a greater threat to U.S. national security than terrorists or WMDs [Weapons of Mass Destruction]. Superbugs are those bacteria that have developed immunity to a wide number of antibiotics, and along with emergent and resurgent diseases, and pandemics they may be a greater threats to our population and to the effective functioning of our military. In the context of globalization, it is difficult if not impossible to contain diseases within national boundaries. International cooperation has become a critical component in addressing world health issues. It is the opinion of these authors that health issues, of necessity, need to be regarded as security issues -- security, broadly defined. Disease has only recently featured prominently in debates on security, and this has likely resulted from a convergence of two new and salient features of security debates. First, transnational threats, such as those posed by terrorist networks, have heightened awareness of the need to control WMD -- and biological weapons are clearly in this category. Second, discourse on security has been diversified and has called for an expanded notion of what security means. In particular, the debate calls for including 'individual security,' as well as the security of territory and the sovereign state."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies; United States Air Force Academy
Grosselin, Kenneth; Pilch, Frances T.
2008
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Security Implications of the Southeast Anatolia Project: The Euphrates Triangle
"For more than 4,000 years, lands irrigated by the Tigris and the Euphrates have been the scene of violent conflict. History has been shaped by geography and in particular, access to water. The Southeast Anatolia Project in Turkey (referred to as the 'GAP') is a major reclamation and hydropower project that has been a government priority since 1961. When complete, the project will consist of twenty-one dams, and irrigate an additional two million hectares of land in southeast Turkey. The GAP has direct consequences for Iraq and Syria, both countries are heavily dependent on the waters of the Tigris and the Euphrates. The impact of the GAP could ultimately reduce the flow of fresh water to Syria and to Iraq (Kolars and Mitchell 1991). These trans-boundary water issues have the potential to further destabilize an already tense region as the GAP is reaches full development in the next twenty years."
U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute; USAF Institute for National Security Studies
1997-10-01
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Reconceptualizing Strategic Stability as the Foundation for Major Power Relations [PASCC Research in Progress]
"Achieving and maintaining strategic stability was the primary objective of the U.S.- Soviet relationship throughout the Cold War. During the Cold War, strategic stability was understood to be a largely quantitative calculation of balance across strategic systems and weapons. In the 21st century, however, the U.S.'s strategic relationships with Russia and China have changed, and the emphasis has shifted to avoiding tension and building a transparent, predictable, and positive set of relationships. This project will investigate the differing definitions and constructions of the concept of strategic stability among these states and regional nuclear powers. It will develop a policy-relevant understanding of the roots, contemporary manifestations, and policy implications of national characterizations of strategic stability by each of these states." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.
2015-05
