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Arms Control Dog Won't Hunt: The Proposed Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty at the Conference on Disarmament
This paper will review the history of fissile material cut-off efforts, examine why the current negotiations are at a standstill, describe the reasons for that failure, discuss the conduct of related initiatives elsewhere, review the attempts to deal with FMCT technical problems on the fringes of ongoing negotiations and consider the significance of the FMCT to the arms control process. Some possible alternatives will be examined including the feasibility of these proposals given the current political climate, and, in the face of a paralyzed negotiating forum, discuss the viability of these proposals. Finally, some observations about the process will be made and some comments and recommendations offered as to the utility of such negotiations for the future and their benefit to U.S. national security.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Roberts, Guy B.
2001-01
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Explaining Weapons Proliferation: Going Beyond the Security Dilemma
This report considers the crucial issue of weapons proliferation by addressing a question of serious debate in the international community: what causes states to acquire weapons of mass destruction? Why do states become proliferators? By summarizing the findings of three cases examined in his group's effort of last year, Captain Rattray sheds light on possible answers to this question, with implications for US and USAF policy. Taking a comparative, regionally-based approach, the report highlights the key findings of a major INSS research project undertaken in 1993. It concludes that the US must look beyond the security dilemma in trying to understand the motivations behind proliferation, especially in emerging democracies. Along the same lines, the US should also consider a wide range of policy tools, to include economic and technological assistance, in attempting to influence proliferation outcomes.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Rattray, Gregory J., 1962-
1994-07
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NATO Counterproliferation Policy: A Case Study in Alliance Politics
This paper studies NATO's noncounterproliferation initiative and its attempt to develop an agreed alliance policy regarding this issue of concern. NATO's future holds the likelihood of more bilateral or multilateral actions under the umbrella of NATO approval, without necessarily being a consensual NATO activity. In addition, while NATO's core function will remain--to guarantee the freedom and physical security of its members--its day-to-day functions will change to lower level aspects of a broad range of security issues. As one analyst put it, this bodes a shift "from collective defense to collective responsibility sharing," with important ramifications for future non- or counterproliferation activities by the Alliance.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Larsen, Jeffrey Arthur, 1954-
1997-11
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Russia's Crumbling Tactical Nuclear Weapons Complex: An Opportunity for Arms Control
This paper presents a novel response to the many security challenges posed by Russian perceptions of the continuing utility of their non-strategic nuclear forces and the related problem of "loose nucs" within the Russian Federation. The authors develop an air-delivered nuclear forces arms control regime and argue that eliminating this class of weapons would be one of the best ways to address these challenges. As the authors point out, despite its many benefits, such a regime would potentially face strong opposition due to its broad sweep, as well as issues such as the requirement for the United States to eliminate the airbreathing leg of the triad. Significantly, the authors bolster the case for the political acceptability of such a regime by uncovering evidence that the Soviets were considering advancing a similar proposal in 1991. However, the Soviet proposal was overtaken by the August 1991 coup attempt and President George Bush's unilateral nuclear initiatives that September. Many readers will no doubt disagree with this proposal and its implications for the US nuclear triad. Nonetheless, the authors' suggestions deserve careful scrutiny because they refocus attention on non-strategic nuclear forces-arguably the largest and most dangerous dimension of the post-Cold War nuclear overhang. In that regard, this paper serves as a logical successor to the discussion in INSS Occasional Paper 10 on the dangers of criminality and weapons proliferation in Russia. INSS is pleased to offer Lambert and Miller's fresh ideas for public debate.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Roberts, Guy B.
1997-04
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'All Our Tomorrows': A Long-Range Forecast of Global Trends Affecting Arms Control Technology
"This report summarizes a three-phase research project undertaken by the USAF Institute for National Security Studies on behalf of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to forecast longrange global trends affecting arms control technologies. The report projects the international political, economic, and scientific environments to the year 2015. It posits economic and technological drivers as shaping the system, including its military and political dimensions. The result will be a two-tiered system, with great danger arising from significant proliferation in the second tier and the transition zone between tiers. The report next draws conclusions from this likely future for the scope, value, and practice of arms control. Arms control will be focused less on limitation and reduction of existing weapons, although the endgame there between the United States and Russia will remain a significant effort. The focus will shift to the less well-defined realm of counterproliferation, and to marginal, failing, and failed states as well as non-traditional and non-state actors. New dimensions will be added, including control efforts toward small arms, advanced conventional weapons, military space, and information operations. The report then extrapolates from this future to assess the likely arms control technology requirements in cooperative, noncooperative, intrusive, and non-intrusive regimes. The projection here is continuing requirements for each of these specialized sets of technologies, with particular emphasis on multiple use technologies for remote arms control compliance and verification monitoring as well as for intelligence detection and collection. Similarly, area arms control monitoring systems must be capable of application for force protection applications. Data management/knowledge management will become a top priority for arms control, as will the continuing development of human expertise in this advanced area of specialization." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Smith, James M.; Larsen, Jeffrey Arthur, 1954-
2002-06
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Cyberterrorism and Computer Crimes: Issues Surrounding the Establishment of an International Legal Regime
In its broadest sense, information warfare includes such time-honored and accepted practices as deception and misdirection, long recognized as legal ruses under the law of war and surely not the proper subjects of treaty limitation. The international community has long decried terrorism even though that community has been unable to agree on what is encompassed by the term. Domestically, terrorism is defined under two separate statutory sections both requiring violence or the threat to or taking of human life for political ends. Such a definition excludes the vast number of information attacks, otherwise denominated as terroristic, which would only result in large-scale financial losses, electrical power grid shutdowns, or mass chaos caused by the manipulation or destruction of information databases. Even the definition of computer crime has been hard to pin down. The Department of Justice has defined it as broadly as "any violations of criminal law that involve a knowledge of computer technology for their perpetration, investigation or prosecution." But certainly as prosecutors and law enforcement investigative units become increasingly technological, computer technology will be employed in the prosecution and/or investigation of virtually any crime. A new cyber crime treaty could help provide the basis for criminalizing the vast array of cyber offenses that do not cleanly fit within traditional crimes. It would also aid extraditions by overcoming the dual criminality problem. Even more importantly, a new treaty could establish agreed principles of enforcement jurisdiction to enable law enforcement to more quickly, easily, and legally obtain the evidence necessary for the prosecution of cyber crimes and information terrorism.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Aldrich, Richard W., 1959-
2000-04
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Information Warfare Arms Control: Risks and Costs
"Since the end of the 1991 Gulf War, information warfare has taken a prominent role in transforming the military as envisioned in Joint Vision 2010. However, due to the rapid changes in information technologies and the low cost, wide availability and high payoff of information warfare weapons, some have seen it as a destabilizing influence and have called for international arms control agreements to govern its use. Although the international legal system and the modern concept of arms control were able to provide for national and international collective security during the Cold War, information warfare presents many challenges that question their viability. The most significant challenges are to the international legal system, which include undermining the ordering principle of the post-Westphalian international system. Despite these challenges, an information warfare arms control regime is still achievable; however, at potentially significant costs and risks. Although some of these costs would be similar to previous nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons arms control agreements, the lack of available data makes it difficult to determine the expected costs with any degree of accuracy. In addition, some of these costs cannot be expressed in budgetary terms; therefore, they are presented as risks and include increased proliferation, intelligence loss, cheating, and a false sense of security. Since there are also political risks by not becoming a signatory to international agreements on this issue, the U.S. would be best served by staying engaged in the discourse to shape the norm for information warfare in the international arena."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thom, Maxie C.
2006-03
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Extended Deterrence: Taking Stock of Current Policy and Updating the Research and PME Agendas
"Dr. James Smith, Director of the Air Force Institute for National Security Studies [INSS] made introductory remarks highlighting the importance of this study to the group of assembled experts. The workshop capped a series of studies undertaken across an international group of think tanks, universities, and government research organizations over the past five years. It asked participants to examine questions such as: (1) What are the current challenges to extended deterrence and assurance? (2) Are any of these challenges being inadequately or improperly addressed? (3) Do the current US policies, strategies, and postures meet the assurance expectations of our allies? (4) How will the anticipated regional security environments of 2015-2020 generate new requirements and expectations? (5) Which extended deterrence and assurance issues require expanded investigation and analysis? (6) Are current US deterrence and assurance strategies and postures adequately 'tailored' for each region? (7) What kinds of knowledge and skill sets will mid- to senior-level Department of Defense military and civilian personnel need in order to meet the challenges of the emerging strategic environment? INSS anticipated that the discussion would be influenced by current developments such as: (1) The Russian incursion into Crimea and the threat to Ukrainian independence and sovereignty; (2) Overall Russian intransigence and stridency; (3) Chinese military development and maritime stridency; (4) North Korean nuclear weapons and delivery system development as well as general DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] adventurism; (5) Iranian nuclear program developments."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2014-08-06
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Rollback of South Africa's Biological Warfare Program
"This monograph analyzes the origins and development of the South African CBW program, as well as its rollback. It concludes with a profile of South Africa as a state that produced weapons of mass destruction and with a list of outstanding questions. More than twenty policy lessons, based on the South African case, are presented, which should be considered in future CBW non-proliferation studies."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Burgess, Stephen Franklin; Purkitt, Helen E., 1950-
2001-02
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Organizing for Success: Theater Missile Defense in Korea
To meet rising threats from ballistic missiles, Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea created a theater-level missile defense command that serves as an excellent model for other theaters. The Combined and Joint Theater Missile Operations Cell fuses several theater missile defense elements into one joint organization, providing significant war-fighting abilities without additional force structure. Major topics addressed in article include Cause for Concern, Creating the New Organization, Understanding the Differences: Before and After, The Reorganization Process, Army Heavy, Yet Joint?, Dual Requirements of CJTMOC, Unproven Concept Concerns, and Insights for Positive Improvement on Joint Doctrine. Article concludes that the concept of merging small, in-theater assets with more robust, US-based assets via electronic means during armistice and war is certainly worth exploring.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Eikmeier, Dale C.
2001
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Five Minutes Past Midnight: The Clear and Present Danger of Nuclear Weapons Grade Fissile Materials (February 1996)
"Growing stockpiles of nuclear weapons grade fissile materials (plutonium and highly enriched uranium) are a 'clear and present danger' to international security. Much of this material is uncontrolled and unsecured in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Access to these materials is the primary technical barrier to a nuclear weapons capability since the technology know-how for a bomb making is available in the world scientific community. Strategies to convince proliferators to give up their nuclear ambitions are problematic since those ambitions are a party of largest regional security. There is no national material control and accounting in Russia. No one knows exactly how much fissile materials they have, and if any is missing. A bankrupt atomic energy industry, unpaid employees and little or no security has created a climate in which more and more fissile materials will likely be sold in black markets or diverted to clandestine nuclear weapons programs or transnational terrorist groups. Control over these materials will ultimately rely on the continuous and simultaneous exercise of several measures. While there is little one can do now to stop a determined proliferator, over time international consensus and a strengthened non-proliferation regime will convince proliferators that the costs outweigh the gains."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Roberts, Guy B.
1996-02
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International Security Negotiations: Lessons Learned from Negotiating with the Russians on Nuclear Arms
"This paper examines arms control and non-proliferation negotiations during and after the Cold War. To make the analysis of this vast topic manageable, the discussion concentrates on negotiating with the Russians (recognizing that the USSR was more than Russia) and, primarily, on negotiations to eliminate or control nuclear arms. American Cold War policy was focused largely through the lens of how to contain and deter Russian expansion and aggression. The intense military competition was at the heart of this struggle, and the nuclear balance was at the heart of the military strategies on both sides. [...] The point of the discussion is not analysis for analysis' sake but to search for lessons that might be of value to American policy today and in the future."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Wheeler, Michael O.
2006-02
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Biowarfare Lessons, Emerging Biosecurity Issues, and Ways to Monitor Dual-Use Biotechnology Trends in the Future
"The study summarizes policy lessons for future efforts to monitor possible covert biological warfare programs based on recent investigations of past Iraqi and South African covert biowarfare programs. This comparative case study approach identified several commonalities in past biowarfare programs in developing countries. One was a tendency of governments to recruit some of the brightest graduate students studying in several different fields of science and send them abroad for advanced studies at western universities. This trend changed dramatically after the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States, and it is now much more likely that future scientists working for government-sponsored bioweapons programs or for terrorist groups in the developing world will receive their advanced training at nonwestern institutions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Purkitt, Helen E., 1950-
2005-09
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Homeland Security and Homeland Defense: Definitions, Roles, Seams, and Gaps [powerpoint]
This presentation describes homeland security and homeland defense definitions, roles, seams, and gaps. It begins with conceptual and structural foundations: National Defense and National Security, Civil Defense and Emergency Management, and legacies to HLS and HLD. In regards to homeland security post Cold War, there is a changing international landscape, new threats for the U.S. This presentation reviews homeland security and homeland defense after 9/11: post Cold War issues, homeland defense on military agenda, National Guard-expanded mission focus, and the Hart/Rudman Commission. The gaps in homeland security and homeland defense became visible during Hurricane Katrina.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Alarid, Megan
2007-02
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Viability of U.S. Antisatellite (ASAT) Policy: Moving Toward Space Control
"This paper suggests that the varied strategic arguments that pervaded in past ASAT debates are now, for the most part, gone. Another broader argument has, however, replaced them, and in some ways presents a more nuanced organizational issue. That issue concerns determination of the relative importance of space weaponry designed toward negating space-based threats, the traditional role of ASATs, within the parameters of U.S. space control capabilities specifically and military planning generally. In that context, it is argued that although past political impediments to the development of ASATs have dissipated, ASAT development will likely continue conservatively much as it has in the past, now as a part of a broader spectrum of efforts. In a change from the past, however, organizational politics and fiscal prioritization rather than macro strategic political and public debate now determine such a course."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Johnson-Freese, Joan
2000-01
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Future (im)perfect?: Mapping conflict, violence and extremism in Africa
"The central challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is to build accountable, capable governments that can deliver security and inclusive growth. Research into the drivers, trends and characteristics of violence in Africa may help achieve these goals. This paper firstly presents global and African trends in armed conflict since 1960, while looking at armed conflict within the broader context of political violence using recent event data. The fatality burden between key affected countries is also discussed. The paper then turns to an examination of the high levels of non-state conflict in the Middle East and Africa compared to the rest of the world and the systemic imbalances that drive instability. Finally, challenges in measuring the relative contribution of violent Islamist extremism to political violence are presented."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Cilliers, Jakkie
2015-10
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Homeland Air Force
This article discusses how 9/11 altered the role of the USAF in homeland defense. It also discusses what future changes are likely to occur.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2004-01
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New Germany and Nuclear Weapons: Options for the Future
"This article first explores the issue of whether German motivations for obtaining nuclear weapons in the future exist or may develop by discussing the historical background regarding German attitudes about nuclear policy - the past German motivations and resulting debates over obtaining nuclear weapons. Second, it examines possible motivations in terms of the changed security concerns brought by the end of the cold war. What are the various security scenarios and plausible options and, in turn, their related effects on German nuclear decisions? Third, this article analyzes the influence of nonsecurity motivations. These motivations may stem from German efforts at producing an integrated political and cultural identity (i.e., political community) as part of the ongoing unification process. Can these nonsecurity aspects also act as an impetus for German desires to become a nuclear power? Last, this article includes overall conclusions and possible policy implications for the United States and the US Air Force."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Gose, Mark N.
1996
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Milestones in Strategic Arms Control 1945-2000: United States Air Force Roles and Outcomes
As a strategy instrument, arms control is an integral element of national efforts to enhance security, in this case as both a complement to and a substitute for more confrontational strategy elements. Second, and related, it establishes that security strategy involves both conflict and cooperation, side by side and often simultaneous, as overlapping stages of a single continuum. In such a deliberately ambivalent world, primary national security organizations can find themselves caught in the middle of these seemingly incompatible policy threads, and this was often the fate of the United States Air Force (USAF) across the Cold War and through to today. An examination of arms control and its implications for the USAF entails establishing the policy context of national security strategy and national military strategy, particularly nuclear strategy and USAF development to support that strategy. The story of United States national security policy across the Cold War and into its immediate aftermath is very much the story of the continuous framework of containment. And the central dimension of containment was the US-Soviet strategic relationship. Thus, implementation of United States national security policy focused on evolving nuclear strategy and, as the Cold War matured, on the accompanying process of arms control. This strategic dimension of policy and practice was also the central force shaping much of the development of the organization charged with employing most of the United States nuclear capability and with creating the infrastructure of nuclear force management, the USAF.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
2002
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US Policy Towards Secession in the Balkans and Effectiveness of DE FACTO Partition
During the decade of the 1990s, as ethnic conflicts obtained greater salience
and demonstrated renewed ability to destabilize the international order,
successive US administrations fostered cautious multilateral policies.
Washington advocated interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo that were designed
to end conflict and restore order in the short-run while firmly denying the right to partition the original state. Partition--the creation of one or more new
independent states from an existing one--was normatively and practically
rejected. Instead, the US and its NATO allies opted for de facto partition as
the "best of the worst" policy choices. The de facto partitions in Bosnia and Kosovo are short-term military and political expedients involving the use of non-sovereign boundaries to divide states ethnically, geographically and politically. Simultaneously, the regimes imposed by the Dayton Accords in Bosnia and the UN protectorate in Kosovo emphasize the use of political and economic incentives to bridge military and territorial boundaries. The following study examines the two major ongoing civil-military attempts to manage ethnic conflict in the Balkans via de facto partition. The analysis focuses on the extent to which policy implementation bolsters the underlying objective--to maintain a multiethnic sovereign state and prevent secession or partition. The study assesses the de facto partition regimes in Bosnia and Kosovo in terms of their short-term effectiveness containing conflict and the long-term prospects for state preservation. In each case, the analysis begins with a brief review of the objectives of the intervenor's. Subsequent sections focus on the military and political aspects of the intervention, and the extent to which they are reinforcing partition or integration. The conclusion offers a blunt final assessment of international efforts in the Balkans and policy recommendations addressing current shortcomings.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Makros, Beth L.; Saunders, Jeremy C.
2001-01
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Overcoming Uncertainty: U.S.-China Strategic Relations in the 21st Century
Mutual uncertainty colors every aspect of U.S.-China relations. American's worry that China will use its growing military power in pursuit of expanding political and economic interests. Beijing fears that the U.S. will try to prevent it from achieving its comprehensive modernization goals. Thus, there lingers an omnipresent perception on both sides that the United States and China are on a road to inevitable confrontation that could include military hostilities. Policymakers and defense planners on each side are, therefore, required to "hedge" against some future, undefined, military threat from the other which, in turn, feeds mutual distrust. This paper offers a range of policy steps that should be taken to overcome mutual uncertainty and advance responsibly U.S.-China relations. It does so in view of changes in the global strategic environment and an assessment of China's future. The full range of vital and important bilateral security issues are explored, including the goals of both sides, interests, and strategic perspectives regarding these issues. Finally, bilateral military relations are addressed, including why and how they should be stabilized and developed to support the overall security relationship. Ultimately, this paper is intended to provide a framework for a balanced debate on China policy that would contribute to improved stability and predictability in U.S.-China relations. Now more than ever, in the face of myriad complex foreign policy challenges and opportunities, strong bipartisan consensus is needed to formulate and implement policies that best serve America's long-term interests. Yet, now more than ever, such a consensus appears elusive.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Anderson, Walter N.
1999-10
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Post-Cold War Nuclear Strategy Model
The authors of this paper hold the view that the conceptualization of nuclear weapons in the post-Cold War environment will require some elements of the old Cold War debate, as well as new concerns resulting from events in the 1990s. The first relevant debate will pertain to the classic Cold War arguments about deterrence, and it's utility. It is clear that the second part of this conceptualization, and clearly related to the need for deterrence, will be the need to monitor and evaluate the current military, economic, and political situation in Russia. Third, after discussions in these two areas there needs to be a careful consideration of the recent proposals for changing the alert status of the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal. And finally, since U.S. nuclear strategy and posture will reflect certain domestic and political realities, it would be helpful to consider which ones have merit in this question.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Hall, Gwendolyn M.; Capello, John T.; Lambert, Stephen R.
1998-07
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Water: The Hydraulic Parameter of Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa
Water is a primary concern of most governments in the Middle East and North Africa. A myriad of synergistic variables are exponentially increasing demands for water, while simultaneously decreasing the region's ability to supply it. These variables include a rapidly increasing population, a large per capita increase in water demand, increasing water pollution, rapid economic growth, persistent regional drought, and irrecoverable water over-exploitation. Compounding the issue are regional tensions (such as those between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and Egypt and Sudan), vague international water laws, and a history of regional conflict. A gloomy prediction emerges if one extrapolates the trends in each of these variables. Especially in the Middle East, water supplies are so tight that even the most optimistic forecast suggests the water issue will be "super-critical" within a decade. Indeed, water issues surround the current peace process, and may actually be worsened should a successful treaty be negotiated between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. This paper examines these variables in depth, and then forecasts a series of possible events that could be the catalyst for a water-based conflict in the Middle East. These events include mass Palestinian migration to a newly declared Palestinian state, transferring control of the West Bank aquifer to the Palestinian Authority, loss of Israeli control of the Jordan River headwaters (which would necessarily result from returning the Golan Heights to Syria), continued or exacerbated drought, and an Israeli return to a more hawkish government. While currently water should only be considered a proximately source of conflict in the region, in the future, water could very well become the primary reason governments decide to go to war.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Kiser, Stephen D.
2000-09
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Chinese People's Liberation Army: 'Short Arms and Slow Legs'
China's rise in power has focused considerable scrutiny on the capabilities and intentions of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). For some observers, Beijing's combination of consistently rising budgets, military modernization, and a more offensive operational doctrine has signaled its intention to assume the status of a world power. While every major power's defense budget and military personnel levels have declined substantially since the Berlin Wall came down, the Chinese budget has increased on average approximately 11% per year. In addition, China's new military doctrine "Limited war under high technological conditions" is more assertive, stressing offensive, even preemptive, uses of military power. This paper examines the PLA's intentions and its ability to threaten its neighbors by considering two variables: China's defense budget and its military doctrine. Defense budgets are only marginal indicators of intentions, but they offer insights into what kinds of capabilities a military is purchasing and developing. Military doctrine is an excellent source of intent because it provides a state's war preparations guidance, which defines the nature and origin of how it perceives future wars and how the military should prepare to fight those wars. Conceptually, the PLA's new doctrine is suited to achieving Beijing's objectives. However, the PLA does not how have, nor has it ever had, the wherewithal to carry out the doctrine's intent. China's deficiencies in systems integration, manufacturing propulsion systems, and advanced computer technologies will be the most limiting factors in the PLA's ability to field the weapons and equipment necessary to satisfy strategic requirements.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Howard, Russell D. (Russell D'Vere), 1946-
1999-09
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Prospects for a Conventional Arms Reduction Treaty and Confidence-Building Measures in Northeast Asia
The paper is presented in four sections. The first contains a review of some considerations for a future NEA multilateral forum, and it reviews the proposal for conventional arms reduction and CSBMs in the NEA region. The second section highlights some ongoing activity currently promoting confidence and trust in the region. These activities serve as possible foundations for future activity that would promote confidence and trust among the Northeast Asian states. The third section explores some possible options for building openness and trust among states in the region that would one day provide a basis for a regional security forum. The Northeast Asian states could meet in a forum that would not be a "security forum," but one that focuses on other areas of interest. This "interim" multilateral Forum would transition to a Northeast Asian Security Forum (NEASF) once the states, through this "interim" Forum, have developed the necessary trust and confidence to engage in a security dialogue. The fourth section is the most ambitious. It describes a proposed Northeast Asia Security Forum including the participating states and organizations. In addition to the participants, it outlines a number of working groups subordinate to the Forum that would report to the Forum. Finally, there is a brief discussion of the recent White House decision to ease some sanctions on North Korea with the understanding that North Korea would not test long-range missiles of any kind as the US and North Korea work towards normalizing relations and possible next steps.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Jenkins, Bonnie D.
2000-08
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Viability of U.S. Anti-Satellite Policy: Moving Toward Space Control
The United States has the highest reliance on satellites of any country in the world, not only in the national security sector, but the private sector as well. Although it has recognized the importance of protecting satellites as strategic assets since their inception, different times and circumstances have yielded different approaches regarding how vigorously this should be accomplished. During most of the Cold War, the United States' desire to protect its satellites was overridden by wanting to avoid what were considered potentially destabilizing efforts, and what seemed as an inevitable arms race in space that would result from those latter efforts. During the Reagan Administration, however, the United States tacitly engaged in a space arms race with the Soviet Union, called the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or Star Wars). This paper suggests that the varied strategic arguments that pervaded in past ASAT debates are now, for the most part, gone. Another broader argument has, however, replaced them, and in some ways presents a more nuanced organizational issue. That issue concerns determination of the relative importance of space weaponry designed toward negating space-based threats, the traditional role of ASATs, within the parameters of U.S. space control capabilities specifically and military planning generally. In that context, it is argued that although past political impediments to the development of ASATs have dissipated, ASAT development will likely continue conservatively much as it has in the past, now as a part of a broader spectrum of efforts. In a change from the past, however, organizational politics and fiscal prioritization rather than macro strategic political and public debate now determine such a course.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Johnson-Freese, Joan
2000-01
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Aerospace Power in Urban Warfare: Beware the Hornet's Nest
In this paper, the author examines the employment of aerospace power in the increasingly important urban operational environment. Aerospace technologies and systems offer alternatives and important adjuncts to surface forces in the urban arena, but significant obstacles and critical considerations must be brought into planning for such operations. Each of these aspects of aerospace power demands greater thought and analysis, which is why this occasional paper is presented to help focus that attention.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Hunt, Peter C.
2001-05
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Controlling Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Obstacles and Opportunities
As the new millennium begins the United States finds itself facing a much-diminished Russian competitor that still holds a significant advantage in at least one category of weapons of mass destruction; non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW). Russia still has thousands of these warheads, as well as multiple means for their delivery. Despite the difficulties associated with establishing compliance with non-binding unilateral initiatives, the signs seem to indicate that Russia has not completely honored its PNI commitments of a decade ago. In fact, Russia appears to be adjusting its national security doctrine to place even greater emphasis on nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the United States is trying to decide what value such weapons provide to its own security, and is considering whether to keep or eliminate its remaining stockpile. As part of this consideration, the U.S. government is debating the role of arms control in stabilizing the strategic (and sub-strategic) balances with Russia and China in Europe and Asia. This book addresses many of the fundamental issues surrounding non-strategic nuclear weapons. It is the result of a conference on NSNW held November 2-3, 2000 at the Airlie Center in Warrenton, Virginia. Some 75 experts in arms control, nuclear weapons, and national security strategy from both sides of the political spectrum attended the workshop, which featured formal panel presentations and lively discussion on the topic. The conference was hosted by the National Security Policy Division, Nuclear and Counter-proliferation Directorate, Headquarters United States Air Force (AF/XONP). Most of the chapters in this book are the result of presentations at the conference.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Larsen, Jeffrey Arthur, 1954-; Klingenberger, Kurt J.
2001-06
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Next Peace Operation: U.S. Air Force Issues and Perspective's
Peace operations continue to evolve. With each successive operation, doctrine and organizational arrangements are updated to reflect past experiences. The traditional peacekeeping conducted during the Cold War is largely a thing of the past; new forms of conflict and new participants have changed the nature of peacekeeping dramatically. In few cases can blue-helmeted observers from non-US countries expect to merely stand between two warring states and observe a cease-fire. Modern peacekeeping frequently involves non-state actors, often within a single country, and may include missions such as humanitarian assistance, refugee resettlement, and nation-building. American involvement has increased significantly since the end of the Cold War, and the participation of civilian and private relief agencies adds new stresses to operational principles such as "objective" and "unity of command." The United States military will have to be flexible enough to support peace operations with varying operational objectives and constraints. This study examines the role of the Air Force in future peace operations. For simplicity's sake, it uses the term "peacekeeping" to encompass both impartial peacekeeping and more coercive peace enforcement. The authors draw upon the experience of the US and other nations to improve understanding of how peacekeeping forces operate and shed light on how best to employ American forces. This paper reviews existing US military doctrine and examines the impact, both positive and negative, that peacekeeping has on combat readiness. The authors then suggest areas for consideration regarding the preparation for and conduct of peace operations.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Cukierman, Jeremy D.; Thomas, William C., 1966-
1999-05
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Effects, Targets and Tools: A Primer for U.S. Strategy and an Application Examining the Security Dynamics of Northeast Asia
This study develops and applies an effects-based model for US security strategy in Northeast Asia. International security theories and broad military strategies shape policy, but strategists need more specific tools. To address this analytical problem, effects-based concepts from military doctrine are blended with general theoretical distinctions to yield an Effects, Targets, and Tools (ETT) operating framework for strategy. To use the ETT framework, a strategist locates desired effects along two spectra defined in terms of preventing or causing behavior. Desired effects toward adversaries are presented as a spectrum of deterrence-compliance, or defense-coercion, depending on the tools used to achieve those effects. Desired effects toward partners are similarly presented as dissuasion-persuasion, or security inducement. Targets to achieve such effects are chosen to affect an adversary's or partner's will or capabilities. Tools used to influence targets are defined as psychological, which support the effects of deterrence-compliance (adversary) or dissuasion-persuasion (partner), or physical in nature, which support the effects of defense-coercion (adversary) or security-inducement (partner).
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Drohan, Thomas Alan
2003-06
