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Vaccine Manufacturing in Africa: What it Takes and Why it Matters
From the Executive Summary: "Africa is home to 17 per cent of the world's population but, due to a lack of manufacturing capacity, can currently produce only 1 per cent of its vaccine needs. Only seven African countries have companies operating across the vaccine-manufacturing value chain, and of these, only one - Senegal - exports a WHO [World Health Organization] pre-qualified vaccine; most do not export at all. The uneven distribution of manufacturing and financing capabilities globally has led to an unequal distribution of global access to Covid-19 vaccines, with African countries largely reliant on external suppliers. This dependency is driving delays and uncertainty, which in turn affects governments' abilities to implement vaccine rollouts, protect their populations and ultimately rejoin the global economy. In this paper, we argue that the goal should be transitioning the continent from dependency towards greater self-sufficiency and security of supply. We also make key recommendations for policymakers on how to grow vaccine-manufacturing capacity across Africa."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Abiodun, Toyin; Andersen, Hayley; Mamo, Liya Temeselew . . .
2021-04-01
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New Necessary: How We Future-Proof for the Next Pandemic
From the Introduction: "Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] has raged for over a year, its path littered with destruction. Lives lost, livelihoods destroyed, economies shaken. It has changed us in ways we may not even be able to comprehend. All of this, and still the challenge of the pandemic endures. With emerging strains of the virus and the race to vaccinate the world more like a marathon than a sprint, no immediate end appears in sight. [...] Two competing objectives have been at the forefront of government responses to date: How do we protect lives and simultaneously keep economies afloat? [...] In this paper, we draw on these successes and identify gaps in response to focus on an emerging third objective. 'How do we prepare for future pandemics?' This objective has taken on a more imminent importance. The next pandemic is likely not a new virus or plague, but a mutant strain of Covid-19 that is more deadly, more transmissible or resistant to antibodies. It could be all three. Therefore, the most important lesson of the last year has been the need to prepare."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Dace, Hermione; Miller, Brianna; Ramli, Rania . . .
2021-02-26
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Long-Term Plan for Long Covid
From the Overview: "We last wrote about Long Covid [coronavirus disease 2019] when we published 'Long Covid: Reviewing the Science and Assessing the Risk' [hyperlink] in October which was followed up by a blog [hyperlink] from members of Long Covid support groups. Since then, various studies and research have confirmed what many suspected in October: that Long Covid will have a significant impact on the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people, regardless of the severity of their initial Covid-19 infection. [...] In our previous report we set out a series of recommendations on how the government could make progress in responding to Long Covid. These recommendations covered: [1] Addressing the need for further research on Long Covid. [2] Launching an awareness campaign. [3] Improving diagnosis of Long Covid. [4] Putting in place specialist support for sufferers. [5] Using the Covid Symptom Study data to screen for those likely to develop Long Covid. 'Below we include': 1. More detail on the recommendations we made. 2. An update on what has happened in each area. 3. Where appropriate, what more could be done."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Miller, Brianna; Sleat, Daniel
2021-03-12
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Passing the Test: How to Safely Reopen the Economy
From the Overview: "The government has published its plan to reopen the country. And with an ending to this phase of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] nightmare now in sight, optimism has returned. But this plan can only become a reality if it takes a number of careful steps. [...] This paper sets out: [1] The progress the UK has made on mass testing. [2] What rapid tests are now available. [3] Why the critical element of our testing capacity will be rapid tests. [4] The role of testing, using the right tests for the right purpose. [5] How we incentivise people to test and, where necessary, isolate. [6] How we get testing in schools right. [7] How testing links to an overall digital health passport. Things we thought impossible at the beginning of this crisis have now become reality. We must continue to be ambitious in our thinking and embrace innovation and new ideas. This paper sets out the 'moonshots' the UK and others should focus on when it comes to monitoring the spread of Covid-19, and also proposes a new 'testing wallet', where people are paid to be tested. Our recommendations offer a way forward for the country that will allow the economy to revive and lives to be protected. It offers an alternative to the blunt instrument of lockdowns and a way for the government to truly ensure that this latest exit out of lockdown is indeed irreversible."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Beacon, Rosie; De Boer, Joanna; Miller, Brianna . . .
2021-03-06
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Covid-19 and Climate Change: How to Apply the Lessons of the Pandemic to the Climate Emergency
From the Introduction: "The challenges posed by coronavirus and climate change are, of course, different in nature. Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] is health-related rather than environmental; Covid-19 is potentially acute and relatively short-term, while climate change is chronic and long-term. But there are also significant areas of commonality. Both are challenges with local, national and global implications, requiring local, national and global solutions. Both require urgency of action because of the scale and pace of the problem. And both are susceptible to exponential escalation. [...] This paper sets out the key lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic - and how we can apply them to tackling climate change: 1. Act quickly. 2. Tackle the problem - or face new and more difficult challenges. 3. Economic success depends on positive health and environmental outcomes. 4. Failure anywhere is failure everywhere. 5. Build a strategy with sustained political leadership and commitment. 6. Mitigate and adapt at the same time. 7. Gather and use the right data. 8. Markets and technology will provide solutions if government sets the right framework. 9. Success depends on the right skills and supply chains. 10. Build and retain public trust and understanding."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Lord, Tim
2021-04
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Capitalising on Crisis? Western European Populists and Covid-19, Past and Future
From the Introduction: "In this report, we analyse the responses of cultural populist parties to Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in nine western European countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. We analyse differences in these parties' early responses to their governments' actions, how their positions on Covid-19 evolved throughout the year, and what the economic fallout from Covid-19 will likely mean for their future success."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Meyer, Brett
2021-03-05
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Risk Calculus of Covid-19: How We Avoid a Second National Lockdown This Winter
From the Overview: "Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] is still with us. As we enter autumn and when winter closes in, it will remain with us. It will be there next spring and likely summer too. It will be an enduring presence that we must learn to live with and alongside. This necessitates a risk calculus that restores confidence for people to safely participate economically and socially. It is a constant balancing act: Shut down all risk and cause irreparable harm to the economy. Accept too much risk and hospitals quickly become overwhelmed."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Miller, Brianna; Sleat, Daniel; Wain, Ryan
2020-09-12
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From Science Fiction to Science and Fact: A Realistic Route to Mass Testing
From the Introduction: "Both the prime minister and health secretary have been clear in committing to a strategy of mass testing. This so-called moonshot should be welcomed in ambition, but even the most ardent supporter of the government will have lost faith in its ability to deliver it. The idea has, in the government's hands, become confusing. To have an at-home daily test is not feasible yet because the technology hasn't advanced that far. We should incentivise its acceleration, but the moonshot is presently beyond reach. [...] In this paper, we set out a series of short-term measures to boost testing capacity and a set of medium-term actions to be pursued in parallel. Together, these will restore the public's confidence in testing and present a realistic route to mass testing, which remains the only way back to some level of normality."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Miller, Brianna; Sleat, Daniel; Wain, Ryan
2020-09-28
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Long Covid: Reviewing the Science and Assessing the Risk
From the Overview: "There is still much we don't know about the risk of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. We know people who are poor, elderly or have underlying conditions have higher risks of death. Public understanding of the risks, combined with the style and content of the messaging and the perceived trustworthiness of the source of the information, will all improve the level of compliance with measures such as mask-wearing and social distancing. [...] In this paper, we combine data from the Covid Symptom Study with emerging evidence from the broader scientific community to understand what we do and - as importantly - don't know about those suffering with long-term symptoms of Covid-19. The Covid Symptom Study is unique as it has one of the largest sample sizes of Covid-19 studies with more than 4 million participants, but it is important to note that the data is collected and analysed based on self-reported symptoms recorded through an app. New findings from the study, which will be published in full by King's College later this month, indicate that around 10 per cent of those taking part in the survey had symptoms of long Covid for a month, with between 1.5 and 2 per cent still experiencing them after three months."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Sleat, Daniel; Wain, Ryan; Miller, Brianna
2020-10-05
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Contact Tracing and the Fight Against Covid-19: How Digital Tools Can Help
From the Background: "Contact tracing (CT) is a monitoring process that is a central public-health response to infectious-disease outbreaks. As the WHO [World Health Organization] explains, it can be broken down into three basic steps: 1. Identifying someone who has a disease; 2. Listing all those who have come into contact with the person; 3. Monitoring and following up with those people. Such measures were put in place during the Ebola outbreak in West Africa and during the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus in 2015. It can be an effective tool, but there are practical, resource-based constraints (see The European Centre for Disease Prevention Control outline of resource estimations needed for such processes). However, technology is now also being used, with digital and automated tracing taking place in countries around the world. This is potentially crucial to reducing the size of outbreaks. If effectively deployed, tech-assisted CT could be part of a broader strategy for loosening social-distancing and lockdown measures over the longer-term."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Macon-Cooney, Benedict
2020-04-06
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COVID-19: Economic Considerations for Health Response Options in Developing Countries
From the Document: "This document offers a guide for economic management during tightening or relaxation of lockdown measures. This framework proposes a tightening/relaxation strategy differentiated by industry, taking into account both the risk of transmission during the regular operations of an industry and the economic value of said industry."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-24
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COVID-19: Social Distancing in African Contexts
From the Document: "A range of social-distancing approaches are possible depending on testing capacity and availability of support for people's livelihoods. [...]The more restrictive the social-distancing measures, the greater the impact on individual livelihoods and deeper the subsequent economic shocks and likelihood of social unrest amongst poor communities. There is a wide spectrum of approaches in place across the world. Their efficacy in Africa remains to be seen."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-03-30
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COVID-19: A Framework for Government Decision-Making in a Crisis
From the Document: "Each stage requires a tailored response strategy. [...] A core set of approaches should be used throughout the outbreak; precise activities will vary according to phase."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-03-26
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Price Worth Paying: Tech, Privacy and the Fight Against Covid-19
From the Webpage: "This report is part of a series exploring the challenges and opportunities of technology for policymakers responding to Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. Our companion report, Digital Policy for a Physical Lockdown, looks at how tech can help countries adapt to the radical change in operating environment for citizens, companies and governments."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Bamford, Roxanne; Dace, Hermione; Macon-Cooney, Benedict . . .
2020-04-24
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Covid-19: Guide for Governments: Working with Religious Leaders to Support Public-Health Measures
From the Document: "Governments can leverage the trust, reach and practical support of religious leaders to deliver effective public-health responses."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-16
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Everyone Needs to Give Up a Little Privacy to Help Defeat Coronavirus
From the Webpage: "Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] has put countries in a terrible position - do nothing and watch in horror as the health service is overwhelmed, or lock the country down and count the staggering economic and social cost instead. The careful application of technology offers a way out, at a price: dramatically increased surveillance. But in a three-way choice between overwhelming the NHS [National Health Service], collapsing the economy or living with more tracking and data-sharing, this is a price worth paying. As well as contact-tracing apps, we would lean heavily on data and technology to organise armies of human contact-tracers to go with them; to prioritise, process and record test results; and - in time - to certify immunity and exempt some people from further testing. We would aggregate, cross-reference and interrogate every source of data that could help understand how the virus is spreading and protect people at risk."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Yiu, Chris
2020-04-25
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Roadmap for Exit: Saving Lives and Livelihoods - Lessons from Around the World
From the Executive Summary: "Deciding how and when to begin easing lockdown needs to be informed by three considerations: the costs and benefits of lockdown, transmission and vulnerability. Under any approach we are very likely to face future outbreaks of uncertain scale. And uncertainty about the operating environment is almost as damaging for people and businesses as lockdown itself. A well-structured roadmap helps people and businesses manage uncertainty and strengthens compliance with measures designed to save both lives and livelihoods."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Alvis, Sam; Kakkad, Jeegar; Mulheirn, Ian . . .
2020-05
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Mass Community Testing is Crucial to the Covid-19 Response: Here's How We Get There
From the Webpage: "Governments must rapidly test a very large percentage of their populations to fight coronavirus. This note - part of our series on using technology to fight Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and cushion the impact of the crisis it has caused - sets out the technologies that governments must focus on and the steps they must take to roll out testing on a large scale. [...] 1. Developed-country governments should immediately redirect all relevant technology, engineering and manufacturing capacity towards mass production of rapid-testing capabilities. 2. Governments should develop digital tools to support community testing, help prioritise when testing capacity is limited and enable people to prove immunity.
3. Governments should leverage private-sector logistics capabilities to get tests out to households."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Dace, Hermione
2020-04-04
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Economic Policy Response to COVID-19
From the Webpage: "The economic impact of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] is likely to be huge, but it need not be permanent. The extent and speed of the recovery - whether V-shaped or L-shaped - depends on getting the immediate economic response right today. Our Economic Policy-Response Observatory (see interactive map below) tracks the latest developments in countries around the world as they respond to the economic shock created by the pandemic."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Mulheirn, Ian; Browne, James; Wildi, Bill . . .
2020-04-06
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COVID-19: Crisis Management Structures
From the Document: "[1] Lead from the front - demonstrate active and visible leadership. Political authority will be more important than ever given the complexity and global scale of the Covid [coronavirus disease 2019] crisis. [2] Assign one focal person to coordinate whole-of-government crisis response efforts with delegated authority from the head of state. This goes beyond the Ministry of Health-led EOC [emergency operations center]. [3] Utilise emergency powers to facilitate rapid operationalisation of policy adjustments as the national health and economic crisis warrants. [4] Establish a forward-looking whole-of-government crisis-management structure that evolves as the nature of the pandemic and its social and economic consequences evolve. Staff the crisis management structure with the right people and right skills, with a focus on data collection and analysis, coordination and rapid decision-making. [5] Institutionalise technology-enhanced data collection, analysis and reporting capability and infrastructure for real-time decision-making. [6] Establish and stick to a battle rhythm to coordinate and command the crisis response efforts. Heads of state should receive updates on a daily basis at least. [7] Communicate frequently and regularly to mobilise the public behind the response efforts, and ensure consistent messaging across all communities."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-03-26
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Covid-19 Testing in the UK: Unpicking the Lockdown
From the Foreword: "This paper outlines the importance of testing and the suggestion of a new structure around decision-making to get it at scale with speed. It is not a criticism of government efforts up to now. Everyone within government is working with enormous energy and commitment in dealing with a crisis, unique in complexity and difficulty, global in nature, and where the strategic decisions involve agonising trade-offs in the assessment of the public interest."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
Wain, Ryan; Macon-Cooney, Benedict; Insall, Lizzie . . .
2020-04-06
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COVID-19: Repurposing Manufacturing to Address Medical-Equipment Shortages in Africa
From the Executive Summary and Overview: "[1] In their fight against Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], sub-Saharan African countries are struggling to procure essential medical equipment for their front-line health-care workers. [2] This guide explores how repurposing could address these shortages while enhancing Africa's industrial manufacturing capability and capacity and saving livelihoods."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-10
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COVID-19: Access to Food Guide for Africa
From the Document: "As countries across the world respond to the Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] health crisis, food insecurity can also arise, caused by disruptions in global and local logistics, by shortages of farm workers, by the reduction in food purchasing power, or by the response of some countries hoarding food. This is especially worrying for countries with existing food-security challenges."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-09
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COVID-19: Strategic Opportunities for African Manufacturing
From the Document: "Implications for global manufacturing: [1] Due to factory shutdowns in China and other countries during Q1 [quarter 1], supply chain disruptions and impaired mobility are drastically affecting production capacity. [2] Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] is causing major demand effects due to shortages of supplies, resulting from lack of access to raw materials. [...] [3] Full capacity production and distribution might not be likely for 12 to 18 months. [4] Opportunity for Africa to boost industrialisation by starting new product lines, capturing new markets, and exploiting disrupted supply chains, digitalisation and technology. [5] A window for smart industrial policies to take hold. [6] Leverage ACFTA [African Continental Free Trade Area] as a vehicle to propel and interconnect African manufacturing base."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-24
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COVID-19: Investment Promotion Guide for Africa
From the Document: "Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] has immediate and long-term implications for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-10
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COVID-19: Workplace Safety Guide
From the Document: "Four suggested steps for a safe workplace environment [...] [1] Develop a preparedness and response plan; [2] Implement an infection-prevention plan; [3] Identify and isolate sick people; [4] Communicate workplace flexibilities and protections. [...] This is intended purely as a guiding document. Considerations should be adapted to the context, based on feasibility."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04
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COVID-19 : structures de gestion de crise
"Le Coronavirus vous impose de gérer simultanément une crise sanitaire et économique. Vous avez donc besoin d'une structure de commandement afin de gérer la réponse à la crise sanitaire et d'une structure de coordination intergouvernementale afin de régir l'ensemble des politiques économiques et sociales."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-03-27
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COVID-19 : Cadre pour les prises de décisions gouvernementales en période de crise
"Chaque étape nécessite une stratégie d'intervention personnalisée. [...] Un ensemble de base des approches à adopter doit être utilisé 26 mars 2020 pendant toute la durée de l'épidémie ; les activités précises dépendront de la phase en question."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-03-26
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Covid-19: guide destiné aux gouvernements Travailler avec les leaders religieux pour soutenir les mesures de santé publique
"Les gouvernements peuvent mettre à profit la confiance, la portée et le soutien concret des leaders religieux pour délivrer une réponse de santé publique efficace."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-16
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COVID-19: Economic Response Guide for Developing Economies
From the Introduction: "This document sets out what governments should be thinking about to ensure the economy supports the health measures being put in place, to manage the fallout, and to preserve the economy and protect the vulnerable. The document is modular. Each of the six sections can be read or used in isolation, depending on need."
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change
2020-04-03
