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Lords of the Silk Route: Violent Non-State Actors in Central Asia
This paper, while it reports the
results of research undertaken across the year prior to the events of
September 11 and their aftermath, presents an analysis that is both
timely and relevant given those events. The two authors--each of whom is individually the winner of a previous INSS outstanding research award--develop and test a systematic, targeted, and useful methodology for examining the non-state political violence and its practitioner that the United States now faces. Their analysis also is grounded in Central Asia, a new but increasingly important region to United States military interest and presence. The paper stands well on either of those legs--a systematic methodology for violent non-state actors or a detailed and security oriented examination of an emerging critical region. Taken together, the two legs mark it as a singularly significant work, one well worthy of serious study. It is the contention of this paper that the new warlords of the
developing world pose a pressing security challenge for which regional governments and western powers, including the United States (US), are not adequately prepared. The post-heroic objectives and asymmetric methods embraced by VNSAs shatter the
assumptions of the "Clausewitzian Trinity" on which the modern nation-state roots its conception of conflict. The new VNSAs are
already challenging our understanding of how traditional constructs of deterrence, coercion and warfighting apply. Developing viable policies and responses to these threats demands a rigorous examination of the linkages between the spawning of VNSAs and
transnational security issues at the sub-national level. We further assert that non-traditional security issues, such as resource scarcity and demographics pressures, are gaining relevance as explanatory factors in the transformation from passive individual deprivation to violent collective action.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Kiser, Stephen D.
2002-05
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Jihad's Captives: Prisoners of War in Islam
"The on-going war against terrorism is waged against an array of adversaries that assert a religious and moral justification for their fight based on the Islamic doctrine of jihad. An invocation of jihad by Islamic leaders, both political and religious, has become increasingly common in conflicts against both Muslim and non-Muslim states, and more recently, non-state actors. Saddam Hussein declared a jihad against both Iran in the 1980s and the U.S.-led coalition in 1990. Mohammad Farrah Aideed's radio station in Mogadishu, Somalia broadcasted calls to join the jihad against United Nations (UN) forces in 1993. Fugitive leaders of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, Mullah Omar and Usama bin Laden, enjoined the Muslim world community to unite in jihad against the Northern Alliance and the United States. In these examples and many others, Islamic adversaries are asserting legal and religious justifications for violence with very real implications for the justice of war, or jus ad bellum, and justice in war, or jus in bello."
United States. Department of Defense
Thomas, Troy S.
2005
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Modeling Violent Non-State Actors: A Summary of Concepts and Methods
"Violent non-state actors (VNSA), such as terrorist organizations, play an increasingly important role in the international security environment. Effectively deterring, coercing, disrupting or destroying terrorist organizations requires a subtle understanding of the factors that influence their growth and formation. Here, we discuss the importance of formulating systems-level computer models that may enable us to forecast VNSA growth, and that also give us leverage for effects-based operations and planning. We apply tools from systems engineering to turn our qualitative systems-level mental models of VNSA into quantitative computer models. By using a systems engineering approach, policy-makers will be able to expand the number and quality of their mental models surrounding reasoning about how VNSA develop in order to gain deeper insights. The methodologies used in this project will be useful for analyzing any complex system, not just terrorist organizations."
United States Air Force Academy. Institute of Information Technology Applications
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.; Bartolomei, Jason
2004-11
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Violent Systems: Defeating Terrorists, Insurgents, and Other Non-State Adversaries
Inter-state war no longer dominates the landscape of modern conflict. Rather, collective violence and challenges to the international system come increasingly from violent non-state actors (VNSA). With few exceptions, VNSA play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. The broad spectrum of objectives and asymmetric methods of these contemporary Barbary Pirates fractures our traditional conceptions of deterrence and warfighting. We contend that deterrence remains a viable strategy for meeting their challenge if adapted to an understanding of VNSA as dynamic biological systems. The prolonged utility of deterrence hinges on insight into VNSA life cycles and a broader conception of the psychology inherent to organizational decision-making. Bundled as "broad biological deterrence" (BBD), we develop deterrent strategies that tackle the VNSA threat throughout its life cycle.
However, we also realize that deterrence may not work in every case. This sets up a counter-VNSA (C-VNSA) strategy that goes beyond coercion to the defeat of the enemy. At its core, our CVNSA strategy defeats a VNSA by: 1) denying the negative entropy, or stores of energy, required to survive attack; and 2) disrupting congruence, or fit, among sub-systems to achieve system failure. By also understanding the indicators of organizational change during its developmental life-cycle, preemptory defeat before the VNSA reaches maturity becomes feasible. Importantly, our approach allows for measuring campaign progress by assessing changes in VNSA effectiveness. Thus armed, prospects improve for inter- and intra-governmental collaboration, on-target intelligence collection and analysis, and successful execution of a multi-facetted, effects-based strategy.
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2004-03
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Violent Non-State Actors: Countering Dynamic Systems
Violent non-state actors (VNSAs) pose a pressing challenge to human and national security across the geo-political landscape. In the midst of a global war against terrorism, collective violent action thrives as a strategy of groups ranging from the al Qaeda network to the Maoist rebels of Nepal to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The dark dynamics of globalization enable VNSAs to prosper in a turbulent international environment marked by deepening roots of violence, failures in governance, and burgeoning illicit trade in guns, drugs and humans. With few exceptions, VNSAs play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. Successfully countering them is complicated by a host of factors, including the adaptive character of the threat and the difficulty of developing and implementing a coherent strategy that engenders measurable victories. This document offers an actionable universal analytical framework for diagnosing the not-state adversary. The document also exposes the internal working of the organization in order to understand sources of strength and critical vulnerabilities.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2004-03
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Turbulent Arena: Global Effects Against Non-State Adversaries
"This is the 58th volume in the Occasional Paper series of the U.S. Air Force Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). Violent non-state actors (VNSA) pose a pressing challenge to human and national security across the geo-political landscape. In the midst of a global war against terrorism, collective violent action thrives as a strategy of groups ranging from the al Qaida network to Maoist rebels of Nepal to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). The dark dynamics of globalization enable VNSAs to prosper in a turbulent international environment marked by deepening roots of violence, failures in governance, and burgeoning illicit trade in guns, drugs, and humans. With few exceptions, VNSAs play a prominent, often destabilizing role in nearly every humanitarian and political crisis faced by the international community. Successfully countering VNSAs across the geo-political landscape is complicated by a host of factors, including the adaptive character of the threat and the difficulty of developing and implementing a coherent strategy that engenders measurable victories."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.; Casebeer, William D.
2005-06
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Beyond Pain: Coercing Violent Non-State Actors
"Today's global conflict environment is permeated by the existence of a diverse range of violent non-state actors (VNSA). These groups utilize subversive means to exploit and disrupt the international system, frequently committing heinous acts of violence against innocent civilians in the process. Short of war, how can nation-states effectively counter the actions of VNSA? This paper examines the proposition that VNSA can be coerced by the threat or limited use of military force. By defining the problem, adapting strategy to the problem and assessing the historical record the author makes the case that coercion is a viable option for confronting VNSA."
USAF Institute for National Security Studies
Thomas, Troy S.
2010
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Beneath the Surface: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace for Counterterrorism
"Major Thomas' Beneath the Surface comes at precisely the right time in the War on Terrorism. Over the past three years the U.S. military and other instruments of national power have been able to attack and damage Usama Bin Laden's al-Qaida network. We have exploited the known, reacted to resultant opportunities, and organized a set of sustainable allies and partners to do the same. Now for the hard part. The remainder of the War or Terrorism--which will continue for years-- requires that intelligence be on the front. The War has been, and will continue to be, an intelligence war. In such a war intelligence and operations are not separate staff components; they are instead a blend of activities that are mutually reinforcing. In this continuing war every soldier is a collector, and every collector is a soldier; operators glean intelligence directly from the field, and intelligence is always operational. Further, the war ahead will demand new strategies for long-term success. The counterpunching phase is over. The rapid-fire operations-intelligence, counterterrorism- targeting cycle happening right now in Iraq and Afghanistan--the 'find, fix, finish, exploit, then find again' process--becomes less powerful as the campaign continues. This cycle has to be underpinned by a strategic intelligence framework that ensures we are attacking a part of the enemy that matters--not just taking the near-term opportunity that inflicts little lasting damage."
United States. Department of the Air Force; Joint Military Intelligence College (U.S.)
Thomas, Troy S.
2004-11
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