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Strategic Insights: Challenges in Using Scenario Planning for Defense Strategy
"Lawrence Freedman and Colin Gray are two of the most famous contemporary scholars of military strategy. Within the past few years, each published a book addressing different aspects of the same practical problem of strategy: defense planning. Considered to be strategy's mundane cousin, defense planning revolves around how a nation designs its military according to its views of the future. Freedman's and Gray's verdicts on the subject are very similar and simply put: we are usually wrong when we predict the future of war. This judgment is not new; indeed, it conforms with the observations of countless defense policymakers and analysts on the challenges of strategic planning in national security. However, those looking to the works of these preeminent strategists for practical prescriptions on confronting uncertainty in planning are liable to be underwhelmed."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Fitzsimmons, Michael (Michael Francis)
2018-01-30
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Strategic Insights: Lost in Translation
"The type of wars being fought since the end of World War II has changed dramatically from those fought in the first half of the 20th century and before. Wars fought between countries have dropped in number to nearly zero, while the number of wars fought inside individual countries has risen dramatically (see Figure 1). The reasons for the tectonic shift in human conflict from interstate wars to intrastate wars are diverse and interconnected, and they have been discussed at length elsewhere. In short, global alliances such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the strengthening and maturing of multinational organizations such as the European Union and the G-20, the globalization of corporate interests, and the resolution of most international boundary issues since the end of World War II are among the causes for the decline in conflict between countries. Meanwhile, resurgent ethnic nationalism and the growth of corresponding separatist movements, the global rise of middle classes (the precursor of revolution), and the historically cyclical reincarnation of radical Islam are among the reasons for the increase in internal conflicts."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Mason, M. Chris
2017-08-07
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Strategic Insights: Is the European Union Really That Important to U.S. Security Interests?
"Questioning long-held assumptions and challenging existing paradigms in U.S. security policy can be a useful way to ensure that American leaders are not pursuing strategies that do not 'actually' support and promote U.S. interests. However, on the question of whether the European Union's (EU) existence is in U.S. interests, the evidence is consistently clear. It most definitely is, and undermining it-for example, by promoting Brexit or suggesting other countries would or should follow the United Kingdom's (UK) exit from the EU-risks the further unraveling of the international order that is central to American prosperity and security. As scholars have known for some time, officials and decision-makers are typically reluctant to abandon long-held beliefs or theories about the world around them.2 When most officials are confronted with new information or data that challenges their worldview, they are likely to try to ignore it, dismiss it, or fit it into their existing notions and theories about how the world works. This kind of cognitive bias-known as confirmation bias-can have disastrous consequences for international security and of course for U.S. foreign policy, often because it can make officials blind to gathering storm clouds. For this reason, periodically questioning the central tenets of one's understanding of the world is critically important. Just because there has been a long-standing consensus on a given policy or strategy does not necessarily mean it should command blind adherence or loyalty forever."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Deni, John R.
2017-03-09
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Strategic Insights: Reimagining U.S. Foreign Assistance in the Middle East
From the text: "U.S. President Donald Trump has proved himself willing to question and challenge many of the conventional wisdoms embedded in contemporary American foreign policies. During his presidential campaign, he questioned the utility of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that has formed the bedrock of American foreign and security policies throughout the Cold War. During his presidential transition, he rocked the foreign policy establishment by accepting a phone call from the Taiwanese President and hinting that he may no longer adhere to America's long-standing 'One-China' policy. In examining these early signals, many analysts anticipate that the foreign policies of his administration will be non-ideological, unconventional, and characterized by a business-like transactional approach emphasizing the costs and visible benefits of American policies and programs. Although very early in his presidential term, one issue that will almost certainly come under scrutiny will be the wide array of U.S. foreign assistance programs. The total value of these programs is slightly more than $40 billion for FY 2017 and accounts for less than 1 percent of federal spending. However, no self-respecting businessperson will leave this amount of money on the investment table without ensuring reasonable prospects for meaningful returns."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Bolan, Christopher J.
2017-02-07
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Strategic Insights: Unlearned Lessons and the Dual-System Problem
This is an article composed by Dr. Robert D. Lamb from the Strategic Insights Institute. From the introduction: "In early 2003, the Association of the U.S. Army and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released the final report from their joint, blue ribbon Commission on Post-Conflict Reconstruction (PCR) that had completed its year-long study in 2002. The PCR Commission had extracted lessons from U.S. and international stabilization, reconstruction, and transition efforts over the previous decade and distilled them into a framework intended to inform such efforts in the future. The United States did not have long to wait to put those lessons into practice; it entered Iraq just 2 months later. Fast-forward to 2013, a full decade after the PCR Commission report and the start of the U.S. intervention in Iraq. The Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction (SIGIR) was set to release his final 'lessons' report to the public. At the time, I was director of the CSIS program that the PCR Commission had stood up at the end of its tenure, and the SIGIR asked me to host the report launch at CSIS."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Lamb, Robert D.
2017-01-25
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Strategic Insights: The 'U.S. Factor' in China's Problems
This Strategic Insights article from the United States Army War College titled "The 'U.S. Factor' in China's Problems" discusses several misconceptions that China has of the United States. From the introduction: There is a widely-shared view in China that the United States has ill will toward China and is always looking for opportunities to make trouble for China. The Chinese believe that this was the case when China was a poor developing nation; and they particularly believe it to be the case today as China is rapidly becoming a great power. The Chinese claim that U.S. influence on every aspect of Chinese foreign and domestic relations is so ubiquitous that they have a name for it: "U.S. factor/shadow/specter" [...]. The Chinese view, however, is largely based on unsubstantiated speculations, erroneously-formed impressions, and poorly-staged analyses; and cannot stand up to close scrutiny. The Chinese assertion that the Philippines vs. China arbitration of 2016 is a U.S.-orchestrated, directed, and supported farce is an excellent example."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Lai, David, 1955-
2016-10-25
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Strategic Insights: Cyber (In)Security, the Americas, and U.S. National Security
"According to the Organization of American States (OAS) in its report on 'Latin American and Caribbean Cyber Security Trends' released in June 2014, Latin America and the Caribbean have the fastest growing Internet population in the world with 147 million users in 2013 and growing each year. While having more users and more network connections are great advancements for traditional developing nations, they also represent a potential threat. Audrey Kurth Cronin points out that 'insurgents and terrorist groups have effectively used the Internet to support their operations for at least a decade. The tools of the global information age have helped them with administrative tasks, coordination of operations, recruitment of potential members, and communications among adherents.' While much of the discussion regarding potential enemy attacks on U.S. cyber critical infrastructure mainly focuses on China, Russia, and Iran, the Americas have been largely ignored in the literature. Why are the Americas important? Why should we be discussing its place within the U.S. national security strategic goals?"
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
da Cruz, José de Arimatéia
2016-09-12
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Strategic Insights: The Great Purge and the Future of the Turkish Military
"The full story of the July 15-16, 2016, Turkish coup attempt may not be known for some time, but it is clear that a limited number of officers attempted to overthrow the government and either capture or kill elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The government has accused these officers of belonging to the Fethullah Gulen movement (Hizmet), which is certainly possible since many of Turkey's most secular military leaders were removed in earlier purges when Erdogan and Gulen were allies. These secular senior officers were often replaced by individuals associated with either the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) or the Gulenist movement, which the government did not view as a threat prior to 2013. Since then, Erdogan has viewed Gulen as an enemy, and the clerical leader has remained in voluntary exile in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania. Erdogan is now seeking Gulen's extradition to Turkey on charges of masterminding the coup, but his government has produced no clear evidence to back up that request."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Terrill, W. Andrew
2016-08-30
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Strategic Insights: Strategic Implications of Brexit
This is an article composed by Dr. John R. Deni from the Strategic Insights Institute. From the introduction: "The momentous decision of British voters to leave the European Union (EU) is already having major repercussions in both economics and politics. In the former, investors fled uncertainty for more stable opportunities, while in the latter there are already calls for another Scottish independence referendum. In the worlds of defense and security, the implications are less clear, at least in the short run. What appears far more certain though is that the economic and political implications are likely to have profound long-term effects on NATO, U.S. national security, and the U.S. Army's relationship with one of America's closest allies. In response, and in order to mitigate the most damaging effects of the Brexit vote, the United States needs to intensify military cooperation with a longstanding UK [United Kingdom] rival - namely, France."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Deni, John R.
2016-06-24
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Strategic Insights: Un- 'Steady' State Operations: Redefining the Approach to Phase Zero in a Complex World
"In recent months, there has been much discussion in the U.S. Department of Defense and its subordinate components over the conduct of steady state operations, or as defined in the Joint Operation Planning Process (JOPP), Phase Zero (Phase 0) operations. While important to military planning, the current construct for Phase 0 is improperly framed. Planning must be re-evaluated and redefined in order to reflect the changing nature of conflict and the myriad hybrid challenges faced by the United States. These challenges exist below the threshold of armed conflict and full spectrum conflict. Politically, they do not necessitate full-scale U.S. military responses. Potential adversaries exploit the gap between peace and armed conflict, leaving the United States with limited ability to counteract them."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Matelski, Thomas R.
2016-06-20
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Strategic Insights: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL) and Trinidad and Tobago: Establishing a Dangerous Presence in the Western Hemisphere
"In his National Security Strategy (February 2015), President Barack Obama stated that, 'the threat of catastrophic attacks against our homeland by terrorists has diminished but still persists . . . Our adversaries are not confined to a distinct country or region. Instead, they range from South Asia through the Middle East and into Africa.' However, the President failed to mention that terrorists and sympathizers are already making inroads into the Western Hemisphere as well. An example of this is the nation-island of Trinidad and Tobago. It has been reported that about 100 Trinidadian citizens have gone to Syria to fight along with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/ISIL). According to the former commander of the U.S. Southern Command, General John F. Kelly, in his posture statement before the 114th Congressional Senate Armed Services Committee, 'when these foreign fighters return, they will possess operational experience, ties to global extremists, and possible intent to harm Western interests.' Therefore, to ignore or take the security of the Western Hemisphere for granted could result in a serious mistake with deadly consequences. This Strategic Insights article examines the role of Trinidad and Tobago as a ground zero in the Western Hemisphere for ISIS/ISIL recruiting and the consequences for the security of the Western Hemisphere, especially for the United States."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
da Cruz, José de Arimatéia
2016-05-13
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Strategic Insights: Letting the Millennials Drive
"In the preface to the Army's Operating Concept, General David Perkins, Commanding General of the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, counsels that as the Army prepares for the future, 'We must not be consumed with focusing solely on avoiding risk, but build[ing] leaders and institutions that recognize and leverage opportunities.' Indeed, the complex world in which the future force will operate demands that the junior leaders of today-the Millennials-be developed into tomorrow's future leaders capable of exercising aggressive, independent, and disciplined initiative. Today's Millennials, however, are coming out of an American society that has become increasingly uneasy about potential danger and progressively intolerant to risk."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Wong, Leonard
2016-05-02
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Strategic Insights: The Coming Perfect Storm of Europe
"A collection of social and security trends are at play in Europe that may threaten the peace and stability of the continent. The array of challenges, threats, and frictions could converge at such a point that an unintentional spark could ignite a major crisis or even a regional war of some type. The most obvious security threat to Europe is Russia and its evident willingness to employ force, including proxy forces, like it did to reshape national borders in Ukraine. Russia does not, of course, view this operation as expeditionary expansionism, but rather as a necessity to stabilize a crisis on its border. Russia sees the Ukraine annexation as not of its own making, but rather like that of a tornado that drew in Russia against its desires. This narrative conveniently overlooks the fact that Russian economic warfare, to prevent Ukraine from entering into an Association Agreement with the EU, was the catalyst for the eventual Euromaidan protests and subsequent violence."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Adelberg, Michael A.
2016-04-15
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Strategic Insights: 2016 Campaign: National Security Debate, Army Implications, and Oversights
"The United States finds itself in a presidential election year that will certainly result in new priorities and policies. By the time this article is published, the world will know the results of the March madness primary elections and caucuses. Currently, the nation is choosing between two Democrat and three Republican candidates, with a real possibility of having contested conventions in both parties come July.
National security policy and the employment of the nation's Joint Force are perhaps the most sacred responsibilities of the commander in chief, and a central theme in the run-up to the July conventions. Army leaders are interested in the variance among the candidates' national security policy positions and their potential implications on land forces."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Braun, William G., III
2016-04-13
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Strategic Insights: A New Era in Civ-Mil Relations: Rendering Advice to Those Who Do Not Want It
"Recently, one of the most respected voices of those who work and teach in the field of American civil-military (civ-mil) relations, Professor Peter Feaver, provocatively offered the following question: 'When it comes to national security, should one advise President Barack Obama on the best course of action or just the best course of action that he is likely or able to accept and implement?'"
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Snider, Don M., 1940-
2015-11-02
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Strategic Insights: The Russian Intervention and the Internal Dynamics of Syria
"The Syrian civil war began in March 2011 and has claimed nearly 250,000 lives so far. After over 4 years of internal fighting, the Kremlin has decided to expand its role in this conflict by moving combat aircraft and some ground troops to Syria to support the Bashar al-Assad government. These actions seem like a clear prelude to a direct Russian combat role, although the scope of such an effort is not yet clear. It has started with a limited number of air strikes against the opposition forces fighting Assad. Additionally, Russia is providing the Syrian army with new weapons supplies which that army seems to be absorbing very quickly. The United States has expressed concern about the deployment and is facing the question of how seriously it seeks to oppose increased Russian involvement in this war, and what, if anything, to do about it."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Terrill, W. Andrew
2015-10-01
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Strategic Insights: Economic Power: Time to Double Down
"A recent editorial in 'The New York Times' asked the question, 'Who threatens America most?' It proceeded to compare recent pronouncements by incoming senior military leaders, the President, the FBI director, and finally the Director of National Intelligence. The major candidates included the usual nation states (Russia, North Korea, and China), a few nonstate terrorist organizations (ISIS and al-Qaeda), and a couple of unattributed capabilities (weapons of mass destruction and cyberattacks). The editorial concluded with the lament: 'If officials cannot agree on what the most pressing threats are, how can they develop the right strategies and properly allocate resources?' Given the confusion and uncertainty generated by the current strategic environment, compounded by America's resource-driven retrenchment, it is a fair question. However, I contend that we could pursue a more focused national strategy and do a better job of allocating resources if we focus on the opportunities as opposed to this wide array of threats. The opportunity that beckons is the increasingly interconnected global economy and the integral role played by the United States in both its institutional design and future evolution. A functioning, interconnected global economy will mitigate most, if not all, of the previously mentioned threats, whereas a fractured and disconnected global economy will exacerbate them."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Troxell, John F.
2015-09-29
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Strategic Insights: The Will to Fight
"Events on world battlefields over the past two years should give the U.S. Army
pause to reconsider the entire Foreign Internal Defense (FID) mission. The
seemingly unarguable axiom that 'good training makes good soldiers' has been
proven to be not always true. Good training does not always make good
soldiers. If the definition of a good soldier is 'a member of the armed forces
who stands and fights for his or her country,' then a good deal of money has
been spent in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere without measurable and
sustainable success. More than a third of all Afghan defense forces trained with
U.S. taxpayer money desert in Afghanistan each year, and in Iraq they simply
disappear."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Mason, M. Chris
2015-09-11
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Strategic Insights: Fragile States Cannot Be Fixed With State-Building
"The problem with the way the international community thinks about and responds to fragile states is not that we do not understand 'fragility,' its causes, and its cures, but that we think of them as 'states,' as coherent units of analysis. As a result of this strategic level mistake, efforts to build state capacity to contain violence and reduce poverty are at least as likely to destabilize the country as they are to help. The U.S. military should consider the destabilizing potential of its efforts to build capacity, train and equip security forces, and provide support to diplomacy and development when its partners and beneficiaries are officials of fragile states. State formation has always been an exceedingly bloody endeavor. Most stable countries worthy of the term 'state' that are stable, including wealthy, Western, liberal, or democratic nation-states, came into being through complicated social processes, including war, ethnic cleansing, or genocide. That violence was followed by an institutionalization of the values and social priorities of the victors, combined with some degree of accommodation for the vanquished across and within the new state's borders. State formation, in other words, has always been a matter of violent exclusion followed by pragmatic inclusion. In all successful states today, those processes have resulted in stable formal political systems, with a significant degree of internal consensus over how those systems should be governed."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Lamb, Robert D.
2015-07-27
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Strategic Insights: Would a Post-2011 Residual U.S. Force in Iraq Have Changed Anything?
"Currently, U.S. policy analysts and governmental leaders are examining the rise of the Islamic State (IS) organization, particularly its seizure of vast expanses of Iraqi territory in the summer of 2014. People legitimately ask what could have been done and would a residual U.S. force in Iraq have prevented the spread of IS from Syria to Iraq or at least its seizure of northern Iraq? Opponents of the decision to withdraw all U.S. forces often contend that a U.S. residual force could have prevented or mitigated the IS offensive in northern Iraq. Supporters of the decision to withdraw usually point out that the Iraqi government would not agree to a Status of Forces agreement (SOFA) that allowed U.S. forces to remain in that country without being subordinate to Iraqi domestic law. The second argument seems to accept the views of the critics, while suggesting that the withdrawal was required as part of an effort to respect Iraqi sovereignty. Both sides seem to agree that a residual force in Iraq was a good idea. They disagree on why it did not occur."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Terrill, W. Andrew
2015-02-09
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Strategic Insights: The China-CELAC Summit: Opening a New Phase in China-Latin America-U.S. Relations?
"On January 8-9, 2015, Beijing hosted the first ever ministerial-level forum between the PRC and the nations of the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC). […] Since the People's Republic of China (PRC) began to open its economy in 1978, its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean has passed through four phases. Prior to its 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), it conducted limited engagements through principally diplomatic and cultural vehicles aimed at building relationships and winning diplomatic recognition among countries of the region. As its commerce with the region began to take off in the years following WTO membership, the PRC increasingly benefitted from commodity purchases and the prospect of access to its markets in gaining the attention of political and business elites in the region. With the 2008 global economic crisis, Chinese loans and investment, and the activities of its companies in the region, assumed increasing importance in the relationship. Yet despite the interest declared in China's 2008 white paper toward Latin America and the Caribbean, the Chinese government remained cautious in going beyond economic, scientific, and cultural bonds with the region. In 2015, this policy is changing as the PRC is increasingly leveraging its appeal as a market and resource provider and forging political relationships that threaten to erode the position of the United States in the region."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2015-01-27
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Strategic Insights: The Landpower Robot Revolution is Coming
"Military technical revolutions have a distinct pattern. When new technology becomes available, it initially is used to augment existing operational methods and tactics. In Europe, for instance, the first firearms were used to give formations of pikemen more punch. On the battlefields of World War I, tanks were moveable pill boxes supporting slogging infantry attacks. Airplanes were used like old-fashioned cavalry, scouting for the infantry and artillery. Later, they supplemented infantry and artillery by strafing and bombing. Even the first atomic weapons were simply a very effective way to do the work of traditional 500 pound bombs and incendiaries. Only later was the revolutionary potential of these new technologies unleashed when visionaries devised radically new ways to use them and different formations to optimize their impact. Over and over, technological innovation came first, and revolution followed. Now this is happening again with military robots."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Metz, Steven, 1956-
2014-12-10
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Strategic Insights: The Strategic Relevance of Latin America for the United States
"The purpose of this essay is not to argue for a significant redirection of material resources toward Latin America, or to impose a new 'Cold War' mentality on the region. Rather, it is to offer constructive recommendations for what responsible U.S. leaders and planners should consider, even as the United States continues to work toward productive and harmonious relationships with global actors such as Russia and China, and even as it continues to work with the region on the issues of democracy, development, security, and governance that are shared interest for all who share the Western Hemisphere."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2014-12-08
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Strategic Insights: Should China Be Given the Benefit of the Doubt?
"The South China Sea territorial dispute is a protracted and complicated problem. Recently, it has become an even more contentious issue between the United States and China. At the center of this disagreement is China's massive territorial claims and its persistent approach to dealing with the disputes in bilateral and diplomatic ways. Historically, the United States has not accepted China's territorial claims nor its approach to attempt to solve the problem. However, for a long time the United States refrained from directly challenging China concerning these issues. This U.S. policy was changed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when she presented her three-point program at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum in July 2010 concerning China's dispute resolution process. Clinton stated that the United States: 1) has a national interest in the South China Sea; 2) supports a collaborative process by all of the claimants (versus China's bilateral approach) for resolving the various territorial disputes without coercion; and, 3) urges the claimants to pursue their territorial claims in accordance with international law (as opposed to China's bilateral diplomatic negotiation)."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Lai, David, 1955-
2014-10-17
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Strategic Insights: The U.S. Foray Into The Levant
"The Levant is caught up in a web of political, social, and economic problems that seem to be the work of the hidden hand of the devil. The U.S. Air Force, and those of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan are actively bombing positions of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS by substituting 'Syria' for 'Levant')--an immediate and critical component of the Barack Obama administration's strategy to 'degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL through a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy.' A corollary to the air campaign is to arm the Kurdish security forces, arm and train the Syrian Free Army, retrain units of the Iraqi Army, and stand up an Iraqi national guard unit made up of Iraqi Sunni elements--all to combat ISIL on the ground. The other elements of the strategy involve using U.S. counterterrorism capabilities, including intelligence, to prevent ISIL attacks, and to provide humanitarian assistance to affected civilians who have been the victims of ISIL terror. The high profile of U.S. military engagement in the Levant will eventually come to an end. At that time, and as is customary, the United States will declare victory and attempt to exit gracefully, while pronouncing its enduring commitment and support to our regional allies."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Hajjar, Sami G., 1939-
2014-10-15
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Strategic Insights: The Dragon in the Tropics: China's Military Expansion into the Western Hemisphere
"Despite the fact that Latin America has been an area of U.S. influence since 1823 with the establishment of the Monroe Doctrine, the region has been always relegated to an afterthought by U.S. foreign policymakers. Latin America, as J. D. Gordon stated, 'has largely remained a policy backwater for the United States, with America manifesting little by way of strategy toward the region, when it in fact noticed it at all.' This benign neglect posture by U.S. foreign policymakers has tremendous geopolitical and national security implications for the homeland in the 21st century. By neglecting Latin America, the United States has opened a door for external powers to fill the political vacuum left by the U.S., particularly antagonistic nations to U.S. hegemony in the region, such as Iran, Russia, and the People's Republic of China (PRC). These countries have quickly positioned themselves as an alternative to the lack of political interest on the part of the United States. Within the context of Latin American politics, the Chinese presence in the Western Hemisphere presents a new alignment of governments that have nurtured an anti-American foreign policy sentiment such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil. In fact, China has entered into bilateral agreements with each of these Latin American countries. Those nations, while economically tied to the U.S. market, have recently taken a more confrontational position vis-à-vis the United States, thanks to their new foreign policy alignment with the PRC."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
da Cruz, José de Arimatéia
2014-09-30
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Strategic Insights: The Ukraine Crises and the Emerging Sino-Russian Political Alliance
"The first half of 2014 witnessed a notable enhancement of Russian-Chinese relations. Signs of this visible geostrategic shift include high-profile summit meetings, breakthroughs in energy/gas deals, renewed interest in military-technology cooperation, more integrated military exercises, and closer diplomatic coordination on regional issues (Syria, Iran, Korea, etc.) and multilateral forums (Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia [CICA]; Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa [BRICS]; G20; United Nations [UN]; etc.). In early May, a Chinese government think tank went as far as to propose to form a 'political alliance' with Russia as was sought by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reactions to these developments are mixed, ranging from dismissive to alarmist. They nonetheless have only captured part of the picture. It is argued here that much of the recent Sino-Russian posturing is largely, if not exclusively, driven by some short- and medium-term external 'stimuli' such as the Ukraine crisis, the U.S.-Asia rebalancing, and/or Japan's accelerating departure from pacifism, real or perceived. A close look at the three summit meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin in 2014 indicates a complex and nuanced reciprocity between the two Eurasian giants. For Moscow and Beijing, a conventional military alliance is not only unnecessary but also unwise, at least for the time being."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Yu, Bingxin
2014-09-09
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Joint Strategic Planning System Insights: Chairmen Joint Chiefs of Staff 1990 to 2012
"Military leaders at many levels have used strategic planning in various ways to position their organizations to respond to the demands of the current situation, while simultaneously preparing to meet future challenges. This Letort Paper examines how the different Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1990 to 2012 used a strategic planning system to enable them to meet their formal leadership responsibilities as out¬lined in Title 10 U.S. Code. As such, it provides an historic perspective in assessing the different Chairmen's leadership legacies in using and modifying their strategic planning system. It also has a contemporary focus as it describes the planning system's current processes and products. Because the strategic environment and its challenges can affect both a leader and staff's use of a planning system, this Paper examines major characteristics of the current strategic environment during this 2-decade-plus time frame. […] The current decade's challenges associated with shifting, interest-driven conditions, and a multi-nodal world as described in the 2011 'National Military Strategy' are different from the rigid security competition between opposing blocks associated with the 1990s. To respond to these challenges, the planning system was formally revised five different times during this period. The most current revision in 2008 has specified processes and planning products under an overall framework of assess, advise, direct, and execute components. […] An examination of how the seven Chairmen used this planning system provides a formal leadership legacy and, most importantly, five broad decisionmaking insights for future senior leaders."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Meinhart, Richard M.
2013-06
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Strategic Plans, Joint Doctrine and Antipodean Insights
From the thesis abstract: "This is the second in an analytical series on joint issues. It follows the authors' U.S. Department of Defense Strategic Planning: The Missing Nexus, in which they articulated the need for more formal joint strategic plans. This essay examines the effect such plans would have on joint doctrine development and illustrates the potential benefits evident in Australian defense planning. Doctrine and planning share an iterative development process. The common view is that doctrine persists over a broader time frame than planning and that the latter draws on the former for context, syntax, even format. In truth the very process of planning shapes new ways of military action. As the environment for that action changes, planners address new challenges, and create the demand for better methods of organizing, employing and supporting forces. Evolutionary, occasionally revolutionary, doctrinal changes result. The authors of this monograph explore the relationship between strategic planning and doctrine at the joint level. They enter the current debate over the scope and authority of joint doctrine from a joint strategic planning perspective. In their view, joint doctrine must have roots, and those roots have to be planted firmly in the strategic concepts and plans developed to carry out the National Military Strategy. Without the fertile groundwork of strategic plans, the body of joint doctrine will struggle for viability."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Lovelace, Douglas C.; Young, Thomas-Durell
1995-10-20
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