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Chairman Xi Remakes the PLA: Assessing Chinese Military Reforms
From the Document, "Xi's ambition to reshape and modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been apparent from his early days as CCP [Chinese Communist Party] general secretary and Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman. [...] The implications of the Xi-era reforms for China's neighbors and potential adversaries are significant. A better trained, organized, and equipped PLA will be in a stronger position to accomplish its three primary functions: winning modern wars, especially what the U.S. Department of Defense terms 'short-duration, high-intensity regional conflicts'; deterring both larger and smaller competitors; and protecting Chinese interests within and beyond Asia. Rival territorial claimants, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, and India, will face a more confident and capable adversary in the South and East China seas and across the Sino-Indian border. Taiwan will have to contend with a PLA that can more credibly plan and execute joint operations, such as amphibious landings, blockades, and joint firepower strikes. U.S. forces operating throughout the Indo-Pacific region will need to anticipate a PLA that can respond more quickly to regional crises and conduct counter-intervention operations more effectively. [...] This volume explores these and other dimensions of China's military reforms as they were planned and implemented between 2013 and 2018."
National Defense University
Saunders, Phillip C. (Phillip Charles), 1966-; Ding, Arthur S.; Scobell, Andrew . . .
2019
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People's Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China
From the National Defense University website: "How will China use its increasing military capabilities in the future? China faces a complicated security environment with a wide range of internal and external threats. Rapidly expanding international interests are creating demands for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to conduct new missions ranging from protecting Chinese shipping from Somali pirates to evacuating citizens from Libya. The most recent Chinese defense white paper states that the armed forces must 'make serious preparations to cope with the most complex and difficult scenarios . . . so as to ensure proper responses . . . at any time and under any circumstances.' Based on a conference co-sponsored by Taiwan's Council of Advanced Policy Studies, RAND, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and National Defense University, The People's Liberation Army and Contingency Planning in China brings together leading experts from the United States and Taiwan to examine how the PLA prepares for a range of domestic, border, and maritime contingencies. The book includes chapters on how the PLA, domestic security forces, and the civilian government conduct contingency planning and how military commanders can draw upon national level military assets and mobilize civilian resources to execute their plans. Substantive chapters assess PLA planning for potential domestic contingencies such as suppressing internal unrest, border contingencies involving India, Myanmar, North Korea, Afghanistan, and Central Asia, and maritime contingencies in both the near and the far seas. Authors also examine PLA preparations and performance in disaster relief, counterpiracy, and noncombatant evacuation operations."
National Defense University
Scobell, Andrew; Ding, Arthur S.; Saunders, Phillip C. (Phillip Charles), 1966- . . .
2015
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Not Congruent but Quite Complementary: U.S. And Chinese Approaches to Nontraditional Security
"Against the backdrop of a weakened global economy and sharpened ideological tensions, there has been a disturbing new atmosphere of crisis in East Asia over the last two years, with incidents occurring in greater frequency and sowing serious doubts about the sustainability of the 'long peace' that this region has enjoyed for decades. [...] Taken together, these incidents starkly illustrate the fundamental fragility of international security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region and the troubling failure of the United States and China to adequately manage vexing regional challenges. In the United States and elsewhere in the West, the pervasive view is that Beijing is 'feeling its oats'--eager to reap the strategic benefits of its dynamic economy even as Washington confronts major difficulties at home and abroad. Not surprisingly, Chinese observers are inclined to view these tensions differently. Difficulties with many neighboring states, such as Vietnam, are seen as encouraged and abetted by Washington, which is viewed as all too eager to exploit regional differences as a way to 'contain' China's rise. Without significant course corrections in both capitals, the United States and China seem destined to follow the path of intensified rivalry that may even lead to the possibility of large-scale armed conflict. As Henry Kissinger has recently written, this path is 'the road to disaster.'"
Naval War College (U.S.). China Maritime Studies Institute
Gill, Bates; Scobell, Andrew; Wanli, Yu . . .
2012-07
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Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions Other than Taiwan
"While preventing independence likely remains the central aim of the PLA vis-a-vis Taiwan, Chinese foreign policy objectives worldwide are rapidly growing and diversifying. This volume analyzes the PLA's involvement in disaster and humanitarian relief, United Nations peacekeeping operations (UNPKO), counterterrorism and border defense, security in outer space and cyberspace, and the level of activity in regional 'joint' operational contingencies. On the whole, the volume provides a discerning analysis of these varied PLA developments and how they affect policy towards both Taiwan and the entire Asia-Pacific region. While the significance of China has long been understood, the nation's rise to prominence on the world scene is becoming more acutely felt. An understanding of the PLA's growing roles both within China and internationally is of critical importance to the United States." The contents include: Introduction by David Lai and Marc Miller; How China Manages Taiwan and Its Impact on PLA Missions by Andrew Scobell; How China Manages Internal Security Challenges and Its Impact on PLA Missions by Murray Scot Tanner; China's Expanding Presence in UN Peacekeeping Operations and Implications for the United States by Bates Gill and Chin-hao Huang; PLA Missions in Frontier Security and Counterterrorism by Robert O. Modarelli III; Strategic Deterrence beyond Taiwan by Brad Roberts; Prospects for China's Military Space Efforts by Dean Cheng; PLA Computer Network Operations: Scenarios, Doctrine, Organizations, and Capability by James Mulvenon; China's Regional Power Projection: Prospects for Future Missions in the South and East China Seas by Mark Cozad; and PLA "Joint" Operational Contingencies in South Asia, Central Asia, and Korea by Larry M. Wortzel.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Lai, David, 1955-; Kamphausen, Roy
2009-04
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'People' in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China's Military
"This volume represents the latest in the series published by the Strategic Studies Institute and describes the advances and reforms the PLA [People's Liberation Army] has made in its recruitment, officer and NCO training and education, and mobilization. As part of its larger reform effort to modernize and transform its military into a technologically sophisticated force, the PLA has implemented a number of measures aimed at training up a 'new-type' officer for its modernized forces--one capable of operating effectively in a technologically advanced 'informationalized' environment. This volume sheds light on such important questions as how the PLA's personnel system is adapting to fulfill the requirements of a military force capable of 'winning local wars under informationalized conditions' and how the PLA is cultivating a new generation of officers and what capabilities these new officers will likely possess."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Kamphausen, Roy; Tanner, Travis
2008-09-17
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Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime
"This monograph considers the future trajectory of the Pyongyang regime and explores a range of future scenarios. It does not consider the future of North Korea as a geographic or territorial entity. Some analysts and observers discuss the future without clarifying whether they are discussing the country of North Korea or the Pyongyang regime. In this monograph, the focus is on the fate of the regime dominated by the Kim Dynasty, initially ruled by Kim Il Sung and then led by his son, Kim Jong Il, following the former's death in 1994. A fundamental assumption is that the regime will collapse. Thus, the key question is not whether the regime will collapse, but when and how it will collapse. The logic behind this assumption is based on this author's assessment that the Kim regime is a totalitarian one, and that such a regime has a limited life span. However, this collapse may be a long and drawn out process that could very well play out over a period of years or even over the course of a decade or more. The purpose of this monograph is to set out an array of scenarios to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. This monograph does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew
2008-03-24
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Right Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military
"China is the emerging power having 'the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages absent U.S. counter strategies,' according to the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review from the U.S. Department of Defense. With military spending and modernization that have persisted with little or no abatement or recantation for well over a decade, China has the entire international community wondering to what ends such growth will be put. To answer this question, the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) and the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) assembled scholars and People's Liberation Army (PLA) analysts for the 2006 PLA Conference at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. Only a year earlier, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice had observed in an interview that China's 'military buildup looks outsized for its regional concerns.' The question before the PLA Conference raises another important question: What would a 'right sized' PLA look like? In other words, in terms of China's national security strategy, regional and global requirements and expectations, and domestic drivers, what might an armed force consistent with Beijing's legitimate selfdefense requirements be composed of and how large would it be? The PLA Conference, by exploring the right size for PLA missions, functions, and organization, provided insight into future Chinese defense planning, strategic intentions, and potential PLA missions."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Kamphausen, Roy
2007-09
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North Korea's Military Threat: Pyongyang's Conventional Forces, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Ballistic Missiles
"Since the inception of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1948, the Pyongyang regime has had two national strategic objectives: (1) the perpetuation of the regime; and (2) reunification of the Korean Peninsula under North Korea's control. Militarism has remained an essential aspect of the DPRK throughout its existence, and the armed forces constitute a central element of the regime. The Korean People's Army (KPA), the name given to all services of North Korea's military, is the core element for the realization of North Korea's national strategy. This strategy calls for giving priority to military issues over everything else and the DPRK constitutes the most militarized state on earth measured by a variety of indicators. The KPA emerged from guerrilla origins in the 1920s and then evolved into a hybrid force with elements of Soviet and Chinese doctrines and organization. It has adjusted as a result of learning from conflicts waged elsewhere in the world. This tradition embraces the concept of self-reliance and self-sufficiency consistent with the DPRK ideology of Juche. North Korean military doctrine has shifted dramatically away from the doctrine of regular warfare to a doctrine that embraced People's War."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Sanford, John M.
2007-04
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Kim Jong Il and North Korea: The Leader and the System
"Much hyperbole surrounds the political regime in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea). Many analysts argue that North Korea is a unique political system. What kind of regime is the DPRK, and what kind of leader does it have? A variety of labels are given to the North Korean regime. These include likening the regime to an organized crime family and to a corporatist organism. There are certainly merits to each of these approaches, but each has its limitations...But the DPRK is more than a crime family-it possesses a massive conventional military force as well as significant strategic forces. Moreover, the regime continues to brainwash, imprison, or starve North Koreans, inflicting untold misery and death on its people. Corporatism, meanwhile, may provide insights into certain aspects of the system, but its utility is limited by the confusion that surrounds understanding of this concept. Certainly North Korea is distinct politically, but it also has significant commonalities with various regime types and authority structures. Pyongyang is a highly centralized and militarized bureaucratic regime organized around an all-powerful leader. This monograph examines the leader and the system, and identifies the regime type. The author contends that the North Korean political system is best conceived as a totalitarian regime that, although weakened, remains remarkably resilient. After analyzing the key elements of totalitarianism, he argues that the system's greatest test will probably come after the death of Kim Jong Il."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew
2006-03
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Strategic Culture and China: IR Theory Versus the Fortune Cookie?
"For once Sinologists have become innovators in political science, at least on the subject of strategic culture. Iain Johnston published his pioneering work Cultural Realism: Strategic Culture and Grand Strategy in Chinese History in 1995 to much fanfare and acclaim. Since then other works have utilized the strategic culture approach, including this writers Chinas Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March published in 2003. There are also a significant number of volumes, journal articles, and book chapters focused on China that invoke the term but do not deal with the concept in any depth. Now, a decade after Johnstons seminal volume, it seems an appropriate point in time to take stock of how far we have come in strategic culture scholarship as a whole and in the field of Chinese security studies in particular. This paper will argue that while significant progress has been made on both counts, developments have not fulfilled the promise of Johnstons path breaking work: First, this paper identifies a major challenge confronting the strategy culture approach. Second, it suggests the key areas in which strategic culture studies of China have advanced the field as a whole. Third, the paper outlines key China-specific areas in which strategic culture studies of the Central Kingdom have made significant advances. Finally, the paper suggests possible fruitful avenues for future research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Scobell, Andrew
2005-10
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Chinese National Security: Decisionmaking Under Stress
"If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. And in nearly all crises, the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) has played an instrumental role. While China at the mid-point of the 21st centurys first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of Chinas behavior in conditions of tension and stress, and particularly how the PLA is a factor in that behavior, is of considerable importance to policymakers and analysts around the world. This volume represents the fruits of a conference held at the U.S. Army War College in September 2004 on the theme of Chinese Crisis Management. One of the major debates that emerged among participants was whether all the case studies under examination constituted crises in the eyes of Chinas leaders. The consensus was that not all of these incidents were perceived as crises-a key case in point being the three Iraq wars (1980-88, 1990-91, and 2003). As a result, the rubric of decisionmaking under stress was adopted as presenters revised their papers for publication. No matter what rubric is employed, however, the chapters in this volume shed light on patterns of Chinese behavior in crisis-like situations and decisionmaking under stress."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Wortzel, Larry M.
2005-09
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North Korea's Strategic Intentions
"In this monograph, Dr. Andrew Scobell examines the topic of Pyongyang's strategic intentions. He first identifies a broad spectrum of expert views and distills this wisdom into three 'packages' of possible strategic intentions. He then sets out to test which package appears to reflect actual North Korean policy. While he opines that one is more likely than the others, he concludes that it is impossible to say with certainty which package most closely resembles reality. As a result, he suggests that further probing of Pyongyangs intentions is advisable."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew
2005-07
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China and North Korea: From Comrades-In-Arms to Allies at Arm's Length
The relationship between China and North Korea surely ranks as one of worlds strangest. While on the surface, it might not seem surprising to have a formal military alliance between two communist neighbors that has endured more than 4 decades. In many ways Pyongyang has become a Cold War relic, strategic liability, and monumental headache for Beijing. Nevertheless, the China-North Korea alliance remains formally in effect, and Beijing continues to provide vital supplies of food and fuel to the brutal and repressive Pyongyang regime. Since the ongoing nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which emerged in October 2002, the United States and other countries have pinned high hopes on Chinese efforts to moderate and reason with North Korea. Beijings initiative to bring Pyongyang to the table in the so-called Six-Party Talks and host them seems to substantiate these hopes. Yet, as Dr. Andrew Scobell points out in this monograph, it would be unrealistic to raise ones expectations over what China might accomplish vis--vis North Korea. Beijing plays a useful and important role on the Korean Peninsula, but in the final analysis, Scobell argues that there are significant limitations on Chinas influence both in terms of what actions Beijing would be prepared to take and what impact this pressure can have. If this analysis is correct, then North Korea is unlikely to mend its ways anytime soon. This document is a current analysis of the long-term relationship and its effect on the United States and the region.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew
2004-03
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Strategic Effects of the Conflict with Iraq: Australia and New Zealand
War with Iraq will signal the beginning of a new era in American national security policy and alter strategic balances and relationships around the world. The specific effects of the war, though, will vary from region to region. In some, America's position will be strengthened. In others, it may degrade without serious and sustained efforts. To assess this dynamic, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) has developed a special series of monographs entitled Strategic Effects of the Conflict with Iraq. In each, the author has been asked to analyze four issues: the position that key states in their region are taking on U.S. military action against Iraq; the role of America in the region after the war with Iraq; the nature of security partnerships in the region after the war with Iraq; and the effect that war with Iraq will have on the war on terrorism in the region. This study considers the strategic consequences of U.S. and allied military action against Iraq for the countries of Australia and New Zealand and provides some policy recommendations. The prospect of imminent U.S. military action against Iraq is of enormous interest to both Australia and New Zealand.
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew
2003-03
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China's Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities
"The way the April 2001 crisis on Hainan Island was resolved must be chalked up as a success for the United States. The key was Washington's ability to convince Beijing that holding the air crew was hurting, and not advancing, Chinese interests. That is something Beijing seems not to have grasped when, without warning, the EP-3 suddenly swept down onto the runway in Haikou, bringing a treasure trove of super-secret electronics and 24 Americans, who looked at first to be valuable bargaining chips. With the plane and the crew, China seemed to hold the best cards and behaved accordingly. [...] This volume, comprised of papers originally presented at a conference held at Carlisle Barracks in September 2001, helps to put the Hainan Island incident in the broader context of China's strategic aspirations and its growing military capabilities. I am proud to be a prime initiator of this conference on the People's Liberation Army, which has been an annual event for more than a decade. Last year's conference's co-sponsors were the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and the U.S. Army War College. For the fourth consecutive year, the War College's Strategic Studies Institute is publishing the proceedings. The nine chapters in this volume, all written by leading experts, cover a diverse set of important topics: East Asian perspectives on China's security ambitions, the status of the Chinese ballistic missile program and regional reactions to U.S. missile defense initiatives, and China's ever-improving conventional military capabilities."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Scobell, Andrew; Wortzel, Larry M.
2002-09
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Asia-Pacific in the U.S. National Security Calculus for a New Millennium
The Asia-Pacific region has become increasingly central to U.S. national security concerns. The drawdown of U.S. forces that began in the mid- 1970s has not translated into a decline in U.S. interest or engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. The United States continues to have a significant forward presence, steadfast allies, and thriving trade and investment in countries throughout the region. While most countries in the region have enjoyed dramatic economic growth rates and unparalleled prosperity in the late 20th century, challenges to peace and stability remain. The United States must continue to monitor carefully the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missile technology, simmering ethnic conflict, on-going territorial disputes, and also be alert to the threats of terrorism, international crime, and drug trafficking. Moreover, the potential for a major theater war remains, as does the prospect of small-scale contingencies. The authors of this monograph survey the challenges to U.S. national security that confront this diverse and dynamic region, highlighting the particularly volatile situation that continues on the Korean peninsula. Beyond continued U.S. attention to maintaining a robust military presence and steadfast U.S. alliances, they argue that the United States, without ignoring the key dimensions in the U.S. National Security Strategy of responding and preparing now, should give a greater emphasis to shaping the Asia-Pacific region. They contend that the time is ripe for the United States to launch a major shaping initiative to help ensure that the positive trends of marketization, democratization, and regional integration continue and strengthen in the 21st century. Building on a bipartisan consensus with careful attention to interagency coordination at home, and in close consultation with allies abroad, the United States, they recommend, should devise a new road map to guide Asia.
Army War College (U.S.)
Scobell, Andrew; Wortzel, Larry M.
2000-03
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