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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems in the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region
"Vulnerability assessments are important tools to assist in climate adaptation planning. Six priority ecosystems were identified in the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region: alpine turf and dwarf-shrubland; aquatic, riparian, and wetland ecosystems in glaciated valleys; subalpine spruce-fir; low-gradient mountain stream reaches; ponderosa pine; and Great Plains streams and riparian areas. Vulnerability to nonclimate and climate stressors for these priority ecosystems is assessed. Criteria used to assess vulnerability include ecosystem traits related to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the ecosystem. We engaged scientists through an expert review to vet the vulnerability rankings and confidence in the assessment. Aquatic ecosystems were the most vulnerable priority ecosystem, and alpine ecosystems had higher vulnerability than lower elevation terrestrial ecosystems. The narrative for each priority ecosystem describes the nature of the vulnerability to climate change."
United States. Department of Agriculture; United States. Forest Service; Rocky Mountain Research Station (Fort Collins, Colo.)
Rice, Janine R.; Joyce, Linda A.; Regan, Claudia M. . . .
2018-06
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Climate Change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: A Synthesis of Past Climate, Climate Projections, and Ecosystem Implications
"The Shoshone National Forest (Shoshone) covers 2.4 million acres of mountainous topography in northwest Wyoming and is a vital ecosystem that provides clean water, wildlife habitat, timber, grazing, recreational opportunities, and aesthetic value. The Shoshone has experienced and adapted to changes in climate for many millennia, and is currently experiencing a warming trend that is expected to accelerate in the next century. Climate change directly and indirectly affects the Shoshone's high-elevation, mountainous terrain that supports unique and sometimes rare ecological components. Several vulnerable and very responsive resources and processes on the Shoshone could interact to produce unforeseeable or undesirable ecosystem changes, highlighting the need to identify potential resource vulnerabilities and develop adaptation pathways and flexibility in resource management options. The objective of this report is to synthesize the current understanding of the paleo and historical climate of the Shoshone as a reference point, determine what future climates may look like, and what the effects of future climate may be on natural resources. This information allows for the identification of vulnerabilities and information gaps, thereby aiding the development of adaptation tools and strategies."
United States. Department of Agriculture; United States. Forest Service; Rocky Mountain Research Station (Fort Collins, Colo.)
Rice, Janine R.; Tredennick, Andrew; Joyce, Linda A.
2012-01
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Assessment of Watershed Vulnerability to Climate Change for the Uinta-Wasatch-cache and Ashley National Forests, Utah
"Watersheds on the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests provide many ecosystem services, and climate change poses a risk to these services. We developed a watershed vulnerability assessment to provide scientific information for land managers facing the challenge of managing these watersheds. Literature-based information and expert elicitation is used to define components of watershed sensitivity and exposure to climate change. We also define the capacity of watershed function, habitats, and biota to adapt to the expected changes. Watershed vulnerability is scored high for the Wasatch Mountain Range and moderate to high for the Uinta Mountains. These watersheds are driven by a snow-dominated hydrologic regime, and they have a high sensitivity to the projected increases in drought, heat, and flooding. More evaporation, snowpack loss, and earlier snowmelt are expected to shift the timing of runoff earlier and lower streamflow. The loss of snowpack is projected to be especially pronounced in the Wasatch Range. The effects from climate change can be compounded by the non-climate stressors of fire and land uses. Adaptation to these changes is enhanced when watersheds are in good functioning condition. Management actions can serve as an iterative process that builds resilience and can assist transitions to new states under a changing climate."
United States. Department of Agriculture; United States. Forest Service; Rocky Mountain Research Station (Fort Collins, Colo.)
Rice, Janine R.; Bardsley, Tim; Gomben, Pete . . .
2017-06
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Assessment of Aspen Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change for the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests, Utah
"Aspen ecosystems are valued because they add biodiversity and ecological value to the landscape. They provide rich and productive habitats and increase aesthetic value. Climate change poses the risk of altering and disrupting these ecosystems, and it may worsen the effects of non-climate stressors. To provide scientific information for land managers facing the challenge of helping aspen ecosystems adapt to climate change, we developed an aspen vulnerability assessment on the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests. Literature-based information and expert elicitation are used to define (a) components of sensitivity and exposure to climate change and (b) the capacity of these ecosystems to adapt to expected changes. Aspen ecosystems benefit from fire and quickly reproduce. Yet, aspen trees are susceptible to drought and heat that is projected to become more frequent and intense in the future. Some aspen-associated plant and animal species may benefit from the expected changes in disturbance regimes and stand structure, while others may experience population reductions or stress as a result of drought and heat. Overall, vulnerability is defined as moderate because although persistence of aspen ecosystems is likely, a dynamic spatial and temporal response to climate change is expected."
United States. Department of Agriculture; United States. Forest Service; Rocky Mountain Research Station (Fort Collins, Colo.)
Rice, Janine R.; Bardsley, Tim; Gomben, Pete . . .
2017-08
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