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International Economic Influence on Iranian Behavior: An Analysis
"This paper serves as a proof-of-concept testing analytic tools for better understanding the efficacy and consequences of economic influence in terms of sanctions and other similar macroeconomic regimes. The underlying concept developed is a calculation of economic threat rings describing the propensity and utility of countries to participate in such regimes. […] The existence of national economies inside such rings shows that sanctions are an imprecise weapon. Sanctions necessarily require countries other than the targeted country to accept losses in the global economy in order for sanctions to be effective. When such loses are suffered by countries un-desirous of supporting sanctions for political, economic or other reasons then the prospect for influencing the targeted country is reduced. In this paper the economic threat ring technique is applied to the case of modern day Iran. Iran is used as a case study as it has a long standing record of sanctions being imposed upon it by the United States and others since its 1979 revolution. Iran continues to be of contemporary interest in American foreign policy owing to concerns with respect to its known sponsorship of terrorism and suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. Based on analysis of the results, conclusions are drawn with respect to the risk opportunities present to American decision makers in terms of international support and the potential success of economic coercion targeted against Iran. Statistical analysis of publicly available balance of trade data for Iran and its interconnected network of related global trading partners are central to this study."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Program for Culture and Conflict Studies
Renfro, Robert S., II; Anderson, David Allen
2010-04-01
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Modeling and Analysis of Social Networks
"This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. This research advances the science of Operations Research and its application to broad classes of problems dealing with social networks. Application areas span academic, private sector, and government analysis. Sample cases are used in this research from the private sector and government. Specifically, influencing foreign government decision making is demonstrated for the case of Iran. Counter-terrorism applications are demonstrated for a sample case using Usama Bin Ladin. The contributions of this research serve private and public sector users."
Air Force Institute of Technology (U.S.). School of Engineering
Renfro, Robert S., II
2001-12
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Analyzing International Economic Influence on Iran
From the thesis abstract: "The interconnectedness of global trade influences international relations. The complexities of this interconnectedness may be better understood through quantitative analysis of the balance of trade within the global economic system. This monograph serves as a proof-of-concept testing analytic tools for better understanding the efficacy and consequences of economic influence in terms of sanctions and other similar macroeconomic regimes. The underlying concept developed is a calculation of economic threat rings describing the propensity and utility of countries to participate in such regimes. Iran is used as a case study as it has a long standing record of sanctions being imposed upon it by the United States and others since its 1979 revolution. Iran continues to be of contemporary interest in American foreign policy owing to concerns with respect to its known sponsorship of terrorism and suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons."
U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. School of Advanced Military Studies
Renfro, Robert S., II
2009-11-30
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