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On the Horizon: Security Challenges at the Nexus of State and Non-State Actors and Emerging/Disruptive Technologies
From the Executive Summary: "Innovation and new technologies have many positive attributes and provide significant improvement to humanity, much that is likely unforeseen at the time of initial discovery. The unpredictability of the technology trajectories can lead to significant negative consequences. This white paper aims to discuss the massive leaps in innovation and understand what this means for national security."
United States. Department of Defense; United States. Joint Chiefs of Staff; United States. Department of Homeland Security
Ackerman, Gary, 1973-; Burnett, R. E.; Clifford, Bennett . . .
2019-04
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Islamic State and Drones: Supply, Scale, and Future Threats
"The Islamic State is a group known for doing things a bit differently, for its capacity for innovation, and for its many 'firsts.' Two of those 'firsts' happened within months of each other. The first occurred in October 2016 when the group used a bomb-laden drone to kill, after the explosive hidden within the drone killed two Kurdish peshmerga soldiers who were investigating the device. Another 'first' happened in January 2017 when the Islamic State released a propaganda video that showed nearly a dozen examples of the group releasing munitions on its enemies from the air with a fair degree of accuracy via quadcopter drones it had modified. And it wasn't long before the group's bomb-drop capable drones would go on to kill, too. [...] This report seeks to address this gap by evaluating the main factors that helped the Islamic State to effectively use modified commercial drones as weapons. It also highlights some of the broader threat and policy implications associated with the Islamic State's pioneering use of drones, to include how the group--and its actions--could serve as an inspiration or model for other types of actors, to include nation-states or proxy groups that are developing their own hybrid warfare capabilities and strategies."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Rassler, Don
2018-07
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CTC Perspectives - The Islamic State's Drone Documents: Management, Acquisitions, and DIY Tradecraft
"Much has been made of the Islamic State drone threat ever since the group killed two Kurdish soldiers in October 2016 with a bomb hidden within one of its drones that Kurdish forces downed in Iraq. The Islamic State was able to achieve this feat through an act of deception, as the two Kurdish soldiers were killed by the bomb after they had taken the drone back to their base to inspect it. Since this type of attack had not been conducted before, the drone was an unassuming place for the Islamic State to hide an improvised explosive device. But that trick only works occasionally, and it likely has a limited shelf life. [...] The recent discovery of a small batch of internal Islamic State documents, which were recovered in Iraq and provided to the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC), provides an inside look into how the group has sought to cobble together, develop, and enhance its drone capabilities as well as manage its drone program. The paragraphs below provide a description of the documents and an overview of their significance in light of what is already known about the Islamic State's use of drones."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Rassler, Don; Mironova, Vera; al-'Ubayadi, Mohammad
2017-01-31
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Then and Now: Comparing the Flow of Foreign Fighters to AQI and the Islamic State
"It is not known if Ahmad `Abd al-Sayyid Hamad and Murad Khalid al-Tayhi knew each another. Yet, they shared a common bond. A number of factors about the two young men were similar. Both were from Libya, and both grew up in the eastern city of Darnah. In search of adventure and greater purpose, both also decided to leave their homes--and they were some of the first ones from their town to go. They ended up in a similar place: Ahmad in Iraq and Murad in Syria. Their common bond? Both wanted to become suicide bombers, albeit at diferent times, for the group that now calls itself the Islamic State. Despite the connections that these two Libyans shared, there are also a number of important diferences between them. When Ahmad left home he was 23; Murad was 15, eight years younger. Seven years, and multiple twists and turns in world events, separated their journeys. Ahmad arrived in Iraq on the same day as three other Libyans (who were likely his travel companions); Murad, however, appears to have been the only Libyan foreign fighter to arrive in Syria on the day he entered that country. Lastly, while they both ended up with derivatives of the same organization, the groups that Ahmad and Murad volunteered to serve were run diferently and had diferent levels of appeal."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Dodwell, Brian; Milton, Daniel J. (Daniel James); Rassler, Don
2016-12
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Remotely Piloted Innovation: Terrorism, Drones and Supportive Technology
From the executive summary: "In mid-August 2016, the Shiite militant group Hezbollah reportedly dropped two small bombs from what is believed to have been a modified, commercially available drone that it was flying over rebel positions in Syria. While terrorist groups have long had a fascination with drones and experimented with their use, the incident was a first for a terror group, and it potentially represents the leading edge of a wave of similar incidents that could follow in the months, years and decades ahead. Much has been made of the threat of terror use of drones (also known as 'uninhabited aircraft systems,' or UASs), but little empirical and historical work has been done to support our understanding of this phenomenon and its evolution. This report seeks to address this gap by providing a review of, and framework to situate, cases in which terrorist entities have either shown a substantive interest in drones or have used them. It evaluates both individual use cases and the activity of groups that have used drones frequently enough to constitute their having a 'program.' These cases are then complemented by a review of the creative ways that private citizens have used drones, in order to provide decision makers with a firmer baseline of both demonstrated terror capability and what lies within the immediate realm of possibility, given what has already been achieved by others. This report also includes an overview of new technologies that are likely to further complicate the scope of this developing threat."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Rassler, Don
2016-10
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Caliphate's Global Workforce: An Inside Look at the Islamic State's Foreign Fighter Paper Trail
"The purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of over 4,600 unique Islamic State personnel records that were produced by the group primarily between early 2013 and late 2014. The importance of this data for understanding the Islamic State and, in particular, the foreign fighter flow, cannot be overstated. To put it simply, it is the largest cache of primary source documents produced by the Islamic State available in the open-source as of this date. These particular documents were acquired by NBC [National Broadcasting Company] News from an Islamic State defector and subsequently provided to the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (and other entities). This report provides a window into the organization's global workforce, revealing information about foreign fighters' countries of origin, citizenship, points of entry into Syria, marital status, skills and previous occupations, education levels, religious knowledge, fighting role preferences in the group, and previous jihadist experience. In addition to analyzing the data at the macro-level, the report also highlights numerous anecdotes of individual fighters. Taken together, the analysis in this report reveals an organization that is attempting to vet new members, manage talent efectively within the organization, and deal with a diverse pool of recruits."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Dodwell, Brian; Hamilton, Daniel S. (Daniel Sheldon), 1955-; Rassler, Don
2016-04
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Fighters of Lashkar‐e‐Taiba: Recruitment, Training, Deployment and Death
"This paper is a study of over 900 biographies of the deceased militants of Lashkar‐e‐Taiba (LeT), a Pakistani militant group that has waged a campaign of asymmetric warfare against Indian security forces and civilians in the contested region of Kashmir for over two decades, as well as other parts of India more recently. Although LeT had a storied history on the eve of its high‐profile November 2008 terrorist assault on the Indian city of Mumbai, that particular event and the case of American LeT operative David Headley (who conducted the reconnaissance for the attack) thrust the organization and the evolving threat it poses to regional security and Western interests into broader international consciousness. That attack, coupled with LeT's recruitment of Westerners and linkages to a number of other international terror plots over the past decade, have heightened concerns that the group's interests and operational priorities are no longer just regional, but that they are also becoming (or have already become) global. This has led to a proliferation of interest in LeT and a desire to learn more about the group's behavior and how it operates outside of the South Asia region."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Rassler, Don; Fair, C. Christine; Ghosh, Anirban . . .
2013-04
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Haqqani Nexus and the Evolution of al-Qaida
"The targeted killing of Usama bin Ladin at a compound in the garrison city of Abbottabad, Pakistan has raised a number of important questions about the infamous global jihadist's local connections. It has also highlighted how little is really known about the patrons and supporters that enabled al-Qa'ida's charismatic leader to hide in plain sight, and communicate with his key lieutenants, for so many years. Al-Qa'ida's successful integration into the complex local landscape of Islamist militancy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is not a recent phenomenon, and since the 1980s Bin Ladin's organization has been dependent on a network of local supporters to conduct an increasingly global campaign of violence. Indeed, the inception, execution and continuity of al-Qa'ida's global jihad cannot be meaningfully separated from this local dimension, which today remains one of the least studied aspects of the organization's history. The present report aims to address this gap through an analysis of the history and organizational relationships of the Haqqani network, a single major constant that, for the entirety of al-Qaida's existence, has shaped the latter's local trajectory in the region."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Rassler, Don; Brown, Vahid
2011-07-14
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