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Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
From the Abstract: "We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Buckman, Shelby R.; Glick, Reuven; Lansing, Kevin J. . . .
2020-07-20
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Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
From the Abstract: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent hiring activity on an unprecedented scale, unemployment could remain in double-digits into 2021. We also find that the increase in measured unemployment could be meaningfully tempered by a substantial reduction in labor force participation."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2020-05-05
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Unemployment Crisis After the Onset of COVID-19
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures. Historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique aspects of the coronavirus economy, can help in assessing potential paths of unemployment. Unless hiring rises to unprecedented levels, unemployment could remain severely elevated well into next year."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2020-05-18
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UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act
From the Abstract: "To provide relief to the U.S. labor market following the onset of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic, the CARES [Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security] Act granted an extra $600 per week in UI [Unemployment Insurance] benefit payments from late March through July 2020. This unprecedented increase in UI generosity raised concern that UI recipients would be largely unwilling to accept job offers, slowing the labor market recovery. Job acceptance decisions weigh the value of a job against remaining unemployed. A reservation level of benefit payments exists in this dynamic decision problem at which an individual is indifferent between accepting and refusing an offer. This reservation benefit is a simple statistic summarizing the decision problem conditional on the perceived state of the labor market and the weeks of Unemployment Insurance (UI) compensation remaining. Estimating the reservation benefit for a wide range of US workers suggests few would turn down an offer to return to work at the previous wage under the CARES Act expanded UI payments. Direct empirical analysis of labor force transitions using matched Current Population Survey (CPS) data, linked to annual earning records from the CPS income supplement to form UI replacement rates, shows moderate disincentive effects of the $600 supplemental payments on job finding rates; this empirical framework also suggests small effects of the $300 weekly UI supplement available during 2021."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2021-05-17
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