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Supply Chain Resilience: Diversity + Self-organization = Adaptation
"In the last three decades a collection of linear supply chains has become a complex adaptive network of demand creating supply. The benefits are obvious. The risks tend to be insidious. With the 2012 National Strategy for Global Supply Chain Security and the 2013 Implementation Update on the strategy, a public-private process has been engaged for considering risks and cultivating resilience. Complex adaptive systems are not well suited to traditional security mindsets. In the natural environment resilience emerges from diversity, self-organization, and innovation. Are these characteristics appropriate to the supply chain? Can these characteristics be systematically cultivated by private and public decision-makers who influence the supply chain? This essay points to prior examples of dealing with complex adaptive systems to suggest an affirmative conclusion."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palin, Philip J.
2013-08
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Homeland Security: An Aristotelian Approach to Professional Development
"Homeland security should avoid our era's widespread temptation to specialize. Instead it should develop the characteristics of a true profession. Homeland security education should focus on professional development. The characteristics of a profession can be cultivated through an Aristotelian process of understanding change, principled reasoning about how our actions can influence change, and disciplined reflection on the outcomes of action. Homeland security's fundamental purpose may be found in how this professional capacity can assist and support the broad range of specializations that are related to the field."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palin, Philip J.
2010-05
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Resilience: The Grand Strategy
"Homeland Security does not have a grand strategy. Resiliency has been suggested as an over-arching goal, but what does it really mean? In this essay, Philip Palin draws from his 'Long Blog', modeled on George Keenan's 'Long Telegram' (which defined containment as the United States' Cold War strategy) to formulate resilience as a grand strategy for U.S. homeland security."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palin, Philip J.
2010-01
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Deterrence Impact Modeling Environment (DIME) Proof-Of-Concept Test Evaluations and Findings
"The exploding use of social media and digital monitoring presents the Coast Guard with a crucial new domain for mission operations. At the very least, the digital domain is a source of situational awareness for maritime operations. Over time andwith creative engagement, the digital domain offers the Coast Guard potentially powerful tools to intelligently inform policy, strategy and planning decision making across most - even all - mission sets. The study explores the Data Driven Decision Making Cycle metaphorical concepts of a Digital Ocean and a pilot project as means to contextually define the exploding data streams associated with the emergence of the socio-technological domain and a means for engaging this domain. The study shows how a pilot project institutionalizes a Coast Guard capability to build tools (mobile applications) that: identify data escapes where digital pheromones are being produced; capture them; identify trends and patterns; and produce a mechanism that allows decision makers to visualize and decide where, when and how to intervene, as well as visualize the results of that intervention. The Data Driven Decision-Making cycle is developed to provide the pilot project with an information management framework that supports decision-making at all levels by: [1] Identifying emerging patterns of strategic importance; [2] Routing relevant information among tactical decision support tools; [3] Supporting continuous improvement of operational capabilities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security; United States. Coast Guard; United States. Department of Homeland Security
Palin, Philip J.; Nieto-Gomez, Rodrigo; Day, Jamison . . .
2016-06
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Deterrence and the United States Coast Guard: Enhancing Current Practice with Performance Measures
"Deterrence displaces or delays unwanted behavior. More ambitiously, deterrence aims to permanently discourage an individual or individuals from such behavior. It operates through the 'prospec't of pain or pleasure. Fear of future pain and hope of future pleasure influence choices, habits, and predilections. Individuals seek to avoid pain and maximize pleasure. Expectations of pain and pleasure will vary, but given an individual's or group's specific sensibilities a pattern of pain-minimization and pleasure-maximization persists. An effective deterrence strategy rewards 'good behavior' and punishes 'bad behavior.' Coast Guard deterrence effectiveness is anchored in a multifaceted approach to safety, stewardship, and security in maritime 'communitie's. The Coast Guard is also effective in customizing its approach to particular communities or sub-groups within a community to deter unwanted behavior. However, the Coast Guard has not adopted an explicit data-informed strategy of deterrence. As a result Coast Guard practice and outcomes are uneven, measurement is not possible, and continual improvement is accordingly difficult. The effectiveness of Coast Guard practice is limited by the absence of an organizing theory, systematic process, and measures of performance. Based on the long-time Coast Guard practice of deterrence observed, this study has identified several complementary theories of psychology, sociology, and economics that may be applied to develop a deterrence strategy. Specifically, the theories of Becker, Ostrom, and Kahneman provide a theoretical foundation for a proposed strategy of deterrence and a methodology/tool proposed here called the 'Deterrence Integration Modeling Environment' (DIME). DIME combines these theories with Coast Guard practice and data-informed technology to bridge the gap between theory and operations. Based on these findings, this study recommends the Coast Guard design and build a DIME proof-of-concept system to capture and manage 'big data' to advance the new strategy of deterrence."
United States. Department of Homeland Security
Palin, Philip J.; Hall, Steven; Lewis, T. G. (Theodore Gyle), 1941-
2012-03
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Learning from H.I.M. (Harvey, Irma, Maria): Preliminary Impressions for Supply Chain Resilience
"The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season challenged critical infrastructure and key resources across a wide area. Harvey, Irma, and Maria each exposed different aspects of how density, dependencies, and distance impact expression of risk. Each event was dramatically different in terms of context, inputs, and outputs. But taken together this real-world stress-test of engineered systems, supply chains, and related networks offered helpful strategic insights. Survivor-facing lifelines are complex adaptive systems that tend to resist command-and-control, but are often predisposed to resilience, and can be influenced by effectively targeted choices. The author outlines several key factors that decision-makers should monitor to inform their choices."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Homeland Defense and Security
Palin, Philip J.
2018-09
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