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Supply and Demand Shocks in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupation Perspective
From the Abstract: "We provide quantitative predictions of first-order supply and demand shocks for the US economy associated with the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic at the level of individual occupations and industries. To analyse the supply shock, we classify industries as essential or non-essential and construct a Remote Labour Index, which measures the ability of different occupations to work from home. Demand shocks are based on a study of the likely effect of a severe influenza epidemic developed by the US Congressional Budget Office. Compared to the pre-COVID period, these shocks would threaten around 20 per cent of the US economy's GDP [gross domestic product], jeopardize 23 per cent of jobs, and reduce total wage income by 16 per cent. At the industry level, sectors such as transport are likely to be output-constrained by demand shocks, while sectors relating to manufacturing, mining, and services are more likely to be constrained by supply shocks. Entertainment, restaurants, and tourism face large supply and demand shocks. At the occupation level, we show that high-wage occupations are relatively immune from adverse supply- and demand-side shocks, while low-wage occupations are much more vulnerable. We should emphasize that our results are only first-order shocks--we expect them to be substantially amplified by feedback effects in the production network."
Oxford University Press
Maria del Rio-Chanona, R.; Mealy, Penny, 1987-; Pichler, Anton . . .
2020-04-16
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Oxford Academic Journals [website]
From the website: "With the recent coronavirus situation, Oxford University Press has made content from online resources and leading journals freely accessible to assist researchers, medical professionals, policy makers, and others who are working to address this potential health crisis."
Oxford University Press
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Enhanced Danger of Physicians' Off-Label Prescribing During a Public Health Emergency
From the Abstract: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic represents a major challenge to both technologically advanced and resource-poor countries. There are currently no effective treatments for severe disease other than supportive care and advanced life support measures, including the use of mechanical ventilators. With the urgency and necessity bred from desperation, there have been many calls to utilize unproven therapies, such as hydroxychloroquine, for which little evidence of efficacy exists. We have previously argued that such off-label use, while legal, is problematic (and even dangerous) and have suggested several regulatory remedies that could protect patients and advance their interests while preserving the reasonable authority of physicians to do what they and their patients think is the best course of action. In this essay we ask whether the special conditions existing in a public healthcare crisis, such as the current pandemic, would justify a relaxing of our argument and permit ongoing unregulated off-label use. We outline at least four areas of concern, all of which can be exacerbated by the widespread distress and despair amongst doctors, patients and other stakeholders. We contend that, if anything, these conditions warrant even more caution and scrutiny of this practice."
Oxford University Press
Coleman, Doriane Lambelet; Rosoff, Philip M.
2020
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Quantifying Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic Through Life-Expectancy Losses: A Population-Level Study of 29 Countries
From the Introduction: "More than 1.8 million lives are estimated to have been lost due to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] around the world in 2020. This estimate--although staggering--masks the uneven impact of the pandemic across different countries and demographic characteristics like age and sex, as well as its impact on population health, years of life lost4 and longevity. Moreover, variations in testing capacity coupled with definitional inconsistencies in counting COVID-19 deaths make the true global toll of COVID-19 infections difficult to estimate with accuracy. To address these measurement challenges, significant efforts have been directed at the harmonization and analysis of all-cause mortality data. A widely used approach to quantify the burden of the pandemic using all-cause mortality is through the analysis of excess mortality, defined as the number of deaths observed during the pandemic above a baseline of recent trends. Here we go beyond excess deaths and country-specific analyses and focus on the pressing issue of revealing the impacts of the pandemic on life expectancy from a cross-national perspective."
Oxford University Press
Aburto, Jose Manuel; Scholey, Jonas; Kashnitsky, Ilya . . .
2021-09-08
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Lessons Learned from COVID-19 Therapies: Critical Perspectives from the IDSA COVID-19 Treatment Guideline Panel
From the Abstract: "Despite the challenges of the pandemic, there has been substantial progress with COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] therapies. Pivotal COVID-19 trials like SOLIDARITY, RECOVERY and ACCT-1 were rapidly conducted and data disseminated to support effective therapies.. However, critical shortcomings remain on trial conduct, dissemination and interpretation of study results, and regulatory guidance in pandemic settings. The lessons we learned have implications for both the current pandemic and future emerging infectious diseases. There is a need for establishing and standardizing clinical meaningful outcomes in therapeutic trials and for targeting defined populations and phenotypes that will most benefit from specific therapies. Standardized processes should be established for rapid and critical data review and dissemination to ensure scientific integrity. Clarity around the evidence standards needed for issuance of both Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) and Biologic License Application (BLA) should be established and an infrastructure for executing rapid trials in epidemic settings maintained."
Oxford University Press
Bhimraj, Adarsh; Morgan, Rebecca L.; Shumaker, Amy Hirsch . . .
2021
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Global Trust Deficit Disorder: A Communications Perspective on Trust in the Time of Global Pandemics
From the Document: "There has been much discussion worldwide about the crisis of trust, with evidence of declining trust in social, economic, political and media institutions. The rise of populism, and the differing impacts of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic between nations, has been drawing attention to wider implications of pervasive distrust, including distrust of the media. In this article, I develop three propositions. First, I identify trust studies as a rich interdisciplinary field, linking communication to other branches of the social sciences and humanities. Second, I argue that we lack a comprehensive account of how trust has been understood in communication, and that doing so requires integrating macro-societal approaches with the 'meso' level of institutions, and the 'micro' level of interpersonal communication. Third, I propose that a focus upon trust would open up new perspectives on two important topics--the future of news media and journalism, and the global rise of populism."
Oxford University Press
Flew, Terry
2021-04-25?
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Association Between Food Insecurity, Mental Health, and Intentions to Leave the US Army in a Cross-Sectional Sample of US Soldiers
From the Introduction: "Food insecurity is defined by the USDA as a 'lack [of] access to enough food for an active, healthy life for all household members'. Households with low food security 'reported multiple indications of food acquisition problems and reduced diet quality, but typically have reported few, if any, indications of reduced food intake.' Very low food security is classified as having 'reported multiple indications of reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns due to inadequate resources for food'. The USDA estimated that 10.5% of American households were food insecure, and 4.1% experienced very low food security, at any point in the 2019 calendar year. [...] The goal of the current analysis was to 1) characterize marginal food insecurity among a sample of active duty soldiers in the US Army and 2) determine how marginal food insecurity, controlling for demographic, financial, and mental health covariates, is associated with intentions to leave the US Army."
American Society for Nutritional Sciences; Oxford University Press
Beymer, Matthew R.; Reagan, Joanna J.; Rabbitt, Matthew P. . . .
2021-05-12
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