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• Macroeconomics of Epidemics

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  From the Abstract: "We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that peoples decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark model, the best simple containment policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly half a million lives in the U.S."

  Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.)

  Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Rebelo, Sergio; Trabandt, Mathias

  2020-04-12
• Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining

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  From the Abstract: "Epidemiology models used in macroeconomics generally assume that people know their current health status. In this paper, we consider a more realistic environment in which people are uncertain about their health status. We use our model to study the impact of testing with and without quarantining infected people. We find that testing without quarantines can worsen the economic and health repercussions of an epidemic. In contrast, a policy that uses tests to quarantine infected people has very large social benefits. Critically, this policy ameliorates the sharp tradeoff between declines in economic activity and health outcomes that is associated with broad-based containment policies like lockdowns. This amelioration is particularly dramatic when people who recover from an infection acquire only temporary immunity to the virus."

  Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.)

  Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Rebelo, Sergio; Trabandt, Mathias

  2020-05-09
• Estimating the COVID-19 Infection Rate: Anatomy of an Inference Problem

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  From the Abstract: "As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional on infection are higher than actual rates. Understanding the time path of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has been hampered by the absence of bounds on infection rates that are credible and informative. This paper explains the logical problem of bounding these rates and reports illustrative findings, using data from Illinois, New York, and Italy. We combine the data with assumptions on the infection rate in the untested population and on the accuracy of the tests that appear credible in the current context. We find that the infection rate might be substantially higher than reported. We also find that the infection fatality rate in Italy is substantially lower than reported."

  Cornell University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.)

  Manski, Charles F.; Molinari, Francesca

  2020-04-13
• U.S. Railroads and COVID-19: Keeping Supply Chains Moving

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  From the Executive Summary: "The rapid onset of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic in March 2020 marked a challenging time for the country and the U.S. freight industry. Manufacturing slowed, consumer purchasing patterns changed, and for many, shopping moved online. The freight industry suffered a sharp decline in shipments, followed by a surprisingly quick rise. The movement of goods by freight rail had to quickly adapt to meet dynamically changing demand and volatile supply patterns. Despite this disruption, freight rail showed a great deal of resilience and reliability. This report addresses how the rail industry met the challenge of this whiplash in demand, explores impediments to performance during this period and looks beyond the crisis towards the future for the rail sector. 'The assessment outlined in this report was completed by researchers at Northwestern University's Transportation Center (NUTC). The results show how the U.S. freight rail industry was an essential component of pandemic resilience, demonstrating a high level of adaptability to meet consumer and business demands.'"

  Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.). Transportation Center

  Schofer, Joseph L., 1941-; Mahmassani, Hani S.; Ng, Max T.M. . . .

  2021-05
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #25: Public Support for Measures Aimed at Curbing COVID-19

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  From the Document: "As COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] continues to surge nationwide, some particularly hard-hit localities are implementing (or re-implementing) relatively strict measures to protect public safety. While many of these measures have been shown to be effective at slowing down COVID-19 transmission in the US (and other countries) in earlier months, the potential implementation of measures such as closing non-essential businesses, adopting distance learning, and restricting restaurants to take-out have provoked fierce debates around the country. While some advocates have sought to frame the debate as a choice between public health and education, on the one hand, or the economy, on the other, in many respects the decisions that public health officials face are far more complicated, and public views on these topics more nuanced. [...] In the post-election (November) wave of our survey, we asked respondents whether and to what extent they approved or disapproved of seven such measures intended to mitigate the spread of COVID-19[.]"

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Uslu, Ata A.; Santillana, Mauricio . . .

  2020-11-27
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #30: Economic Hardships Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  From the Key Findings: "[1] Parents with children at home are more likely than respondents without children at home to have experienced all five economic hardships, while women with kids at home are more likely than men with kids at home to have experienced four of the five hardships. The overall gaps range from a low of 4 percentage points for eviction from their home (6% for parents vs. 2% for non-parents), to highs of 11 points for taking pay cuts (26% vs. 17%) and being unable to make a rent or mortgage payment (21% vs. 10%)[.] [2] Economic hardships are fairly evenly distributed across partisan groups and regions of the country. [3] Respondents who report having had COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] (whether diagnosed by a medical professional or otherwise) are more likely than respondents who report not having had had COVID-19 to have suffered a series of five economic hardships we included in the survey, including losing a job, being evicted from their home, being unable to pay rent or their mortgage, taking a pay cut, or having to cut back on work to take care of a child. [4] Hispanics are more likely than other racial/ethnic groups to have experienced all five economic hardships. [5] We find fairly wide variations across the 50 states in the percentages of residents having experienced economic hardships, and no consistent geographic patterns. COVID-related hardships appear to be generally widespread across the country."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Lin, Jennifer; Lazer, David . . .

  2020-12-17
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #38: Public Perceptions of Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  From the Document: "One of President Joe Biden's top pandemic-related policy priorities has been to get children back into schools. The president and his advisors have cited multiple reasons for the urgency of doing so, ranging from nutrition to mental health to the quality of K-12 [kindergarten through twelfth grade] learning during the pandemic. Since March of 2020, American school children have faced a variety of learning environments, varying by time and place, and ranging from all-virtual school, to hybrids of part-virtual and part-in-person school, to all-in-person school. Schools have reopened, only to close again in response to local outbreaks. As with other aspects of the pandemic, community response has often been vocal and polarized. Some parents have pressured local school boards to open their neighborhood schools to in-person learning; others have applied pressure for the opposite: all virtual schooling until local covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] transmission is brought down to manageable and safe levels. In our December 2020 survey wave, we included a series of questions aimed at assessing the state of opinion regarding these topics."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Perlis, Roy H.; Green, Jon . . .

  2021-02-05
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #36: Evaluation of COVID-19 Vaccine Communication Strategies

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  From the Document: "This report outlines the current state of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccine hesitancy (defined as preferring to delay vaccination) and resistance (defined as not wanting to take the vaccine at any point), as well as the results from two experiments designed to test strategies for increasing Americans' willingness to take the vaccine when it's available to them. We evaluate the results of two experiments testing different communication strategies to increase people's willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Key findings are that a variety of 'messages' are effective for reducing vaccine hesitancy and resistance, while 'messengers' are less effective and - in the case of partisan messengers - have the potential to 'increase' resistance among political out-groups. The most effective strategies evoked scientists and people's own doctors as endorsers of vaccination. We found, also, that messages evoking harm reduction and 'people you know' were more effective in counties where the virus is spreading more quickly."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #35: Public Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Vaccines

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  From the Executive Summary: "We present a variety of descriptive results on attitudes and beliefs regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccines. We find a notable consensus across population subgroups regarding order of prioritization for receiving vaccines, which roughly aligns with current policies. We additionally find that while there are generally positive attitudes and beliefs regarding vaccines, there are also some negative attitudes and misbeliefs that are especially common within certain demographics (political independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans; Black respondents; and individuals ages 25-44). The reported results are based on data collected from 24,682 people between December 16, 2020 and January 10, 2021. For these descriptive analyses, we apply survey weights using national benchmarks for race, gender, age, education, Census region, and urbanicity."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #39: Public Attitudes Towards the Storming of the Capitol Building

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  From the Document: "This was the latest in a series of surveys we have been conducting since April 2020, examining attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States. [...] The 2020 election produced two distinct perceived realities for the United States public. The first perceived reality holds that the election was conducted fairly, and that Joe Biden won. Individuals who hold this vision of reality feel their votes were counted accurately, and that the events of January 6th [hyperlink] were repugnant. This is also the version of reality for 60-70% of the US population. This reality is documented by court cases, our government officials (Republican and Democratic) in charge of administering the election, and the credible news media. The second vision of reality holds that the election was essentially corrupt--driven, in particular, by illegal mail-in ballots, noncitizen voting, and voting machine fraud. In this perceived reality, Biden is a usurper to the presidency. Further, the people who stormed the Capitol had a point, although the worst actions were taken by individuals affiliated with Antifa activists masquerading as Trump supporters. This is the expressed reality of former President Trump, certain Republican leaders, a subset of conservative media, and certain corners of the social media ecosystem. This is also the reality for 25-30% of the US population, and roughly half of Republicans. These two perceived realities are not created equal. The facts, as presented by the fact sorting institutions of the government and media, unambiguously support the first."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-02-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #31: Update on the Trajectory of Health-Related Behaviors

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  From the Document: "Since April 2020, the COVID [coronavirus disease] States Project has been surveying respondents regarding social distancing behaviors and adherence to health recommendations more generally. Our November report [hyperlink], looking at the data from April to November, with a partial exception of mask wearing, found a steady relaxation of these behaviors over time. In this report, we update our November results, finding that this trend has partially reversed, perhaps due to the surge of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases in the last two months. Mask wearing reached its all-time high in our December/January survey, and social distancing behaviors have substantially increased since October (though still far from April levels)."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #37: Gun Purchases During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  From the Document: "Gun purchases in the United States have increased dramatically since the start of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. Based on FBI data, the National Shooting Sports Foundation reported 21 million background checks for firearms sales [hyperlink] in 2020, up from 13.2 million the previous year and surpassing the previous record of 15.7 million in 2016. The biggest spikes occurred in March and June, as shown in Figure 1. While March is typically a month of high gun buying [hyperlink], this year saw a much sharper surge. June's spike in gun purchases is even more abnormal compared to previous years when gun purchases are typically close to their low point."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Simonson, Matthew; Lazer, David; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2021-02-05
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #32: Update on Public Support for Measures Aimed at Curbing COVID-19

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  From the Summary: "In report 25, published in November, we evaluated public support for taking more aggressive measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. The key finding is that there is broad support for taking more steps to limit the spread of the disease. In a just completed survey, we repeated these questions, finding that opinions are virtually unchanged since November: large majorities across the 7 issue areas support taking more aggressive steps. The measure with the least support, which would be the most drastic step - requiring most businesses other than grocery stores and pharmacies to close - has exactly the same level of support we observed in November: 60%. The only step that has seen statistically significant erosion in support is restricting international travel, which has edged downward from November, from 88% to a still quite high 84%. Support across the 50 states plus DC also is quite high. In 43 states plus DC, majorities support all 7 measures; in 4 states majorities support 6 measures, and in three (Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming), majorities support 5 of 7 measures (the two exceptions being requiring most businesses to close and prohibiting K-12 [kindergarten through twelfth grade] schools from teaching in person)."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #34: Update on Holiday Gatherings in December 2020

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  From the Document: "Public health officials have expressed concern that multi-household holiday gatherings might have driven a January surge of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases. As noted in report 31 [hyperlink], social distancing behaviors have generally been improving since late October, including in our most recent wave conducted over the holidays. However, the scope of our data collection regarding social distancing, which focused on proximity to others in the 24 hours preceding survey response, might have missed important spikes in proximity around Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. Therefore, here we evaluate the responses from a survey conducted between December 16th and January 10th, to a separate question asking whether people had gathered for the holidays in November and December."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #33: Update on COVID-19 Test Turnaround Times Across the Country

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  From the Key Takeaways: "1) Average wait times for COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] test results continue to fall steadily (from 3.9 days in March to 2.2 days in December). 2) Racial disparities still exist in testing times: in December, Hispanic and Black respondents waited 0.7 and 0.4 days longer than white respondents, respectively. 3) In December, the average respondent waited 2.4 days between seeking a test and obtaining a test. They waited another 2.2 days to receive test results. 4) Testing is still too slow to support effective contact tracing."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Chwe, Hanyu; Quintana, Alexi; Lazer, David . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #40: COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes Among Healthcare Workers

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  From the Executive Summary: "'In this report, we examine the demographic correlates of vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine resistance among the subset of 1,797 respondents in the COVID [coronavirus disease] states survey who indicated that they are healthcare workers. We find that education, income, gender, race/ethnicity, and partisanship are strong predictors of vaccination rates recorded thus far, as well as of vaccine hesitancy and resistance.' Healthcare workers represent a microcosm of US society, and a consequential one. They are polarized in terms of income and education, ranging from physicians with extensive postgraduate education, to cleaning staff with less than a high school education. Healthcare workers also have taken a disproportionate brunt of the national response to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], in terms of the physical and emotional labor to care for millions of sick people; to bid goodbye to hundreds of thousands; and to confront, by the nature of their work, the increased risks of exposure to the virus. They have also been among the first wave of recipients of COVID-19 vaccinations; and as such, they are doubly important. First, they may be predictive of what is to come in the rest of the US's vaccination campaign. Healthcare workers represent the first diverse population that has the opportunity to get vaccinated. As such, their responses regarding vaccine willingness are more proximate and less hypothetical than they are with our other survey respondents. Second, they may directly affect the willingness [hyperlink] of other Americans to be vaccinated, by dint of their high perceived credibility regarding issues of health."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Perlis, Roy H.; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-02
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #41: The Trajectory of Health-Related Behaviors in New Jersey

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  From the Document: "New Jersey is similar to other states in the northeast, in that it had its initial spike in COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases during March and April 2020, with a second wave that peaked in December 2020 and January 2021. This report presents an overview of key trends in the behavior of New Jersey residents since the first months of the pandemic, with respect to following health guidelines aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19. [...] Residents of New Jersey closely followed the social distancing guidelines in the spring of 2020, but progressively relaxed their adherence to health recommendations over the summer and early fall of 2020. People once again became more careful about social distancing as COVID-19 case counts increased towards the end of 2020. Our most recent data indicate that as case numbers decreased in 2021, behaviors relaxed as well."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy; Harvard Medical School . . .

  Ognyanova, Katherine; Druckman, James N., 1971-; Lazer, David . . .

  2021-03
• The COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #42: The Trajectory of Health-Related Behaviors in New York

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  From the Document: "New York is similar to other states in the northeast, in that it had its initial spike in COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases during March and April, with a second wave that peaked in December and January. In this report, we examine New Yorkers' health-related behaviors that facilitate or inhibit the spread of the disease, focusing specifically on social distancing and mask wearing."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lin, Jennifer; Ognyanova, Katherine; Druckman, James N., 1971- . . .

  2021-03
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #59: What Americans Think About People Who Are Not Vaccinated

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  From the Document: "COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] continues to spread in the United States, driven by the Delta variant and fueled by the large number of unvaccinated individuals in the country. As a result, the role of unvaccinated Americans has received increasing attention from political and media elites. CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] director Rochelle Walensky, for instance, called the current situation [hyperlink] 'a pandemic of the unvaccinated'. President Biden noted that [hyperlink] 'We have a pandemic for those who haven't gotten a vaccination. It's that basic, that simple.'' This rhetoric, in turn, has at times shifted into blaming the unvaccinated for the continued spread of the disease. [...] In this report, we evaluate how people feel about those who are vaccinated and those who are not. [...] Overall, our findings suggest that people's own vaccination status predicts how they are likely to feel about others."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy; Harvard Medical School . . .

  Lin, Jennifer; Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2021-08-04
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #58: High Public Support for Mandating Vaccines

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  From the Document: "In this report, we update our assessment of public support for vaccine mandates, both nationally and across the 50 states, based on our June/July survey wave. A few key takeaways follow: [1] Overall, public support for federal, state, and local governments requiring that everyone be vaccinated remains very strong, ranging from 61% to 70%, depending on the specific type of mandate. [2] Public support for such mandates has increased since April/May, both overall and in specific circumstances, like for getting on an airplane and returning to school or a university. [3] These over-time increases in support emerge across nearly all partisan and demographic subgroups we investigated. [4] Majorities of respondents in nearly all (45+) or all states and the District of Columbia approve of all four types of vaccine mandates we consider."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy; Harvard Medical School . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine; Lazer, David . . .

  2021-07-30
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #62: COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes Among Healthcare Workers

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  From the Document: "The vaccination status of healthcare workers is of particular importance, for two key reasons: First, healthcare workers have been a harbinger of trends among the broader population through the entire vaccination campaign, as they were among the first to gain access to vaccines. The early inequalities in terms of access among healthcare workers were predictive of inequalities within the broader population. The divides in terms of vaccine skepticism presaged those of the broader population; and, as we will see below, the plateauing of vaccination rates anticipated the slowdown in vaccinations within the broader population. Second, the vaccine decisions of healthcare workers have particular ramifications with respect to the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], and, especially, with respect to morbidity and mortality resulting from COVID-19. In particular, unvaccinated healthcare workers are potentially a vector of infection of the elderly and the vulnerable, who have been vastly more likely to die of the disease"

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy; Harvard Medical School . . .

  Lazer, David; Qu, Hong; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-08-16
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey: Report #14: Misinformation and Vaccine Acceptance

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  From the Document: "We surveyed 21,196 individuals across all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The survey was conducted on 7-26 August 2020 by PureSpectrum via an online, nonprobability sample, with state-level representative quotas for race/ethnicity, age, and gender. [...] In addition to balancing on these dimensions, we reweighted our data using demographic characteristics to match the U.S. population with respect to race/ethnicity, age, gender, education, and living in urban, suburban, or rural areas. This was the ninth in a series of surveys we have been conducting since April 2020, examining attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine; Quintana, Alexi . . .

  2020-09-23
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #15: Public Support for a Fifth COVID-19 Relief Package

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  From the Introduction: "To date, Congress has passed four COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] relief packages totaling about $3 trillion, the most recent of which, the CARES [Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security] Act, was passed on March 27th, 2020. The House of Representatives subsequently passed the $3 trillion Heroes Act on May 15th. [...] Throughout the summer, the House, Senate, and White House have engaged in on-again, off-again talks aimed at agreeing on a fifth relief package. [...] While both sides claim to support such a package, they disagree not only on the amount, but also on the targets for this funding. Democrats favor a combination of direct payments to Americans, extended unemployment insurance, and aid to hospitals, schools, small businesses, the Post Office, and state and local governments. Republicans oppose aid to state and local governments and favor more limited unemployment insurance benefits. But what does the public think? We surveyed 20,315 respondents between September 4- 27, 2020 on attitudes regarding the next COVID-19 relief bill. We asked respondents if they supported such a bill, as well as the types of relief they believed it should include. We also probed whether or not they had received the $300-$400 supplemental unemployment benefit authorized by President Trump's executive order of August 5th."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine; Chwe, Hanyu . . .

  2020-10-01
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #19: Pandemic-Related Factors Associated with Candidate Preferences

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  From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic and the associated economic fallout is the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election. [...] In this report, we provide preliminary evidence regarding one aspect of the relationship between the ongoing pandemic and the 2020 election. Specifically, we ask about the degree to which vote choice is associated with attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic, and whether the pandemic may be making voters who would otherwise be likely to support Donald Trump for re-election reluctant to do so. Throughout, our analysis is restricted to likely participants in the two-party contest this November - that is, respondents who say they are registered to vote, are very likely to vote in the 2020 election or have already voted, and are supporting Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or are undecided."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2020-10-30
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #20: Public Opinion Around Federal and State Reactions to COVID-19

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  From the Document: "In every month, April through October of 2020, we surveyed individuals in every state about how federal and state governments are reacting to the pandemic. We found a remarkably consistent picture of public opinion: respondents prefer state governments over the federal government when it comes to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. Out of 8 waves in 50 states & DC - a total of 408 surveys at the state level - in 402 state-level surveys more people in the state felt the state government was reacting 'about right' to the COVID-19 outbreak as compared to the federal government; and only 6 times did people in a state choose the federal government over their state government."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Green, Jon . . .

  2020-10-30
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #22: Executive Approval Update

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  From the Document: "Despite the headwinds confronting the country in facing COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], approval of most governors' and President Trump's COVID-19 response did not change greatly between September and October in our survey. President Trump's approval has ticked up a point to 35%, which is still problematically low approval for the most salient issue in the 2020 election by far (in 49 out of 50 states, Alaska being the one exception, COVID-19 is ranked as 'the most important problem'). More generally, after suffering a decline in the spring, the President's approval rating has been flatline around his October rating of 35%. [...] We note that the most recent survey was conducted from October 2nd to 25th. We are in the midst of a large spike of cases in the US, and with enormous geographic variation. The number of daily cases has roughly doubled since we began the survey and has increased by 15% since it concluded. Thus, the question we will address in our next executive approval report is how the current spike in cases will have affected presidential and gubernatorial approval."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Green, Jon . . .

  2020-10
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #24: The Trajectory of Health-Related Behaviors in Massachusetts

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  From the Document: "This report summarizes the trajectory of individual behaviors in Massachusetts related to the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] - that is, the way individual behavior has changed over the past 7 months in the Commonwealth. These summaries are based on a large-scale survey that our team has regularly conducted in all 50 states since April of this year."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Santillana, Mauricio; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2020-11-13
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #29: Election Fairness and Trust in Institutions

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  From the Document: "Between November 3 and 30, we surveyed 24,019 individuals across all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The survey was conducted by PureSpectrum via an online, nonprobability sample, with state-level representative quotas for race/ethnicity, age, and gender (for methodological details on the other waves, see covidstates.org). In addition to balancing on these dimensions, we reweighted our data using demographic characteristics to match the U.S. population with respect to race/ethnicity, age, gender, education, and living in urban, suburban, or rural areas. This was the latest in a series of surveys we have been conducting since April 2020, examining attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Ognyanova, Katherine; Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2020-12-11
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #26: Trajectory of COVID-19-Related Behaviors

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  From the Document: "The current state of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic in the United States is dire, with circumstances in the Upper Midwest particularly grim. In contrast, multiple countries around the world have shown that temporary changes in human behavior and consistent precautions, such as effective testing, contact tracing, and isolation, can slow transmission of COVID-19, allowing local economies to remain open and societal activities to approach normalcy as of today. These include island countries such as New Zealand, Taiwan, Iceland and Australia, and continental countries such as Norway, Uruguay, Thailand, Finland, and South Korea. These successes demonstrate that coordinated action to change behavior can control the pandemic. In this report, we evaluate how the human behaviors that have been shown to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 have evolved across the US since April, 2020. Our report is based on surveys that the COVID States Project has been conducting approximately every month since April in all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. We address four primary questions: 1) What are the national trends in social distancing behaviors and mask wearing since April? 2) What are the trends among particular population subsets? 3) What are the trends across individual states plus DC? 4) What is the relationship, at the state level, between social distancing behaviors and mask wearing with the current prevalence of COVID-19?"

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Santillana, Mauricio; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2020-11-27
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #28: Public Support for Measures Aimed at Curbing COVID-19 in Massachusetts

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  From the Document: "Over 10 survey waves, we polled 139,230 individuals across all 50 states plus the District of Columbia. The data were collected between April and November 2020 by PureSpectrum via an online, nonprobability sample, with state-level representative quotas for race/ethnicity, age, and gender. In addition to balancing on these dimensions, we reweighted our data using demographic characteristics to match the U.S. population with respect to race/ethnicity, age, gender, education, and living in urban, suburban, or rural areas. For this report, we focused on data from Massachusetts: a total of 919 respondents polled between October 1 and November 28. The data was weighed for demographics to match the population of the state."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine; Uslu, Ata A. . . .

  2020-12-04