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Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data
From the Abstract: "We use U.S. household-level bank account data to investigate the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic on spending and savings. Households across the income distribution all cut spending from March to early April. Since mid April, spending has rebounded most rapidly for low-income households. We find large increases in liquid asset balances for households throughout the income distribution. However, lower-income households contribute disproportionately to the aggregate increase in balances, relative to their pre-pandemic shares. Taken together, our results suggest that spending declines in the initial months of the recession were primarily caused by direct effects of the pandemic, rather than resulting from labor market disruptions. The sizable growth in liquid assets we observe for low-income households suggests that stimulus and insurance programs during this period likely played an important role in limiting the effects of labor market disruptions on spending."
National Bureau of Economic Research
Ganong, Peter; Noel, Pascal; Vavra, Joseph . . .
2020-07
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Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
From the Abstract: "How did the largest expansion of unemployment benefits in U.S. history affect household behavior? Using anonymized bank account data covering millions of households, we provide new empirical evidence on the spending and job search responses to benefit changes during the pandemic and compare those responses to the predictions of benchmark structural models. We find that spending responds more than predicted, while job search responds an order of magnitude less than predicted. In sharp contrast to normal times when spending falls after job loss, we show that when expanded benefits are available, spending of the unemployed actually rises after job loss. Using quasi-experimental research designs, we estimate a large marginal propensity to consume out of benefits. Notably, spending responses are large even for households who have built up substantial liquidity through prior receipt of expanded benefits."
Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics
Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona; Liebeskind, Max . . .
2021-02-11
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US Unemployment Insurance Replacement Rates During the Pandemic
From the Abstract: "We use micro data on earnings together with the details of each state's UI [unemployment insurance] system under the CARES Act [Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act] to compute the entire distribution of current UI benefits. The median replacement rate is 134%. Two-thirds of UI eligible workers can receive benefits which exceed lost earnings and one-fifth can receive benefits at least double lost earnings. There is sizable variation in the effects of the CARES Act across occupations and states, with important distributional consequences. We show how alternative UI expansion policies would change the distribution of UI benefits and thus affect resulting liquidity provision, progressivity, and labor supply incentives."
Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics
Ganong, Peter; Noel, Pascal; Vavra, Joseph
2020-05-15
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