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Palestinian Refugees and the Regional Security Implications of the Peace Process
This thesis focuses on the status of Palestinian refugees following final peace negotiations. The major conclusions of the thesis are that basic Palestinian refugee rights are not likely to be honored given the immense imbalance of power between Israel and the PLO; that the Palestinian refugee community will likely become a permanently marginalized outcast group in the Middle East; and that the probable result of this condition will be an increase in Palestinian political violence and terrorism against Israeli, American, and allied Arab interests. This is likely to be achieved through mobilization of former refugees by Islamic fundamentalist groups, capitalizing on the failure of the nationalist peace effort. These conclusions are reached through a close examination of the specific Palestinian refugee question and applying a general model of ethnonationalist collective action to the Palestinian question. The major policy conclusion for the United States is that to protect its own interests in the Middle East and reduce violence, the United States must treat seriously the rights of Palestinian refugees during regional peace negotiations. American and Israeli interests on this key issue are clearly divergent; they should be recognized as such and treated accordingly.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sullivan, Edward R.
2001-06
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Effectiveness of Class and Ethnicity in Mobilizing Resources for Terrorism
This thesis attempts to determine which of two terrorist groups, an ideologically based group (Red Brigades) and an ethnically based group (ETA or Basque Fatherland and Liberty), is more effective at mobilization. Mobilizing human resources is the method by which terrorist groups sustain their levels of membership. Without sustained or growing levels of membership, the group declines and soon ceases to exist. By determining a group's effectiveness at mobilization, judgments can be made on the likelihood of the group experiencing continued mobilization leading to continued operations or experiencing demobilization leading to decline. The ETA is still a functioning terrorist group whereas the Red Brigades has ceased to exist. A possible explanation is the ETA was more effective than the Red Brigades at mobilizing resources. After explaining the theory of mobilization, this thesis will apply the theory to the two groups. A subsequent comparison of the two groups' effectiveness at mobilizing resources will enable a judgment to be made on which group is more effective at mobilization. By demonstrating that the ETA was more effective than the Red Brigades at mobilizing people, this thesis will give an explanation for the survival of the ETA and the decline of the Red Brigades.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ernst, Joseph Adrian
2000-12
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Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism: Proliferation by Nonstate Actors
From the thesis abstract: "In the wake of the Cold War, a new world disorder seems to be emerging wherein the legitimacy of many states is being challenged from within by increasing non-state calls for self-determination from the likes of religious cults, hate groups, isolationist movements, ethnic groups, and revivalist movements. These movements often prey on the insecurities of the population, offering to fill psychological, sociological, political, or religious security needs of those who would join them. Of note: religious oriented groups appear to share a common ideological thread that rejects existing social, economic, and political structure demanding a structural revision of the world, a world where they become the authoritarian, dominant influence. These are the Post Modern Terrorists who possess a 'ripeness' to threaten use of weapons of mass destruction. Executive Order No. 12938 signed by President Clinton on November 14, 1994 declared a national emergency with respect to the unusual and extraordinary threat proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (those weapons categorized as nuclear, chemical or biological) posed to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. This study presents an argument suggesting that terrorist groups operating under a veneer of religion are truly the most likely candidates to threaten use of weapons of mass destruction in a mass casualty causing terrorist act."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Campbell, James K.
1996-12
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Demographic Trends in France and Germany: Implications for U.S. National Security
This thesis explores the changing demographic picture in France and Germany and how it may affect U.S. national security in the near future. while demographics are only one set of the many forces driving changes in the way the United States and Western Europe interact and cooperate, they have the potential to fundamentally change the way Western Europe shapes and implements its security policies around the world. This thesis examines how demographic trends in Western Europe, particularly France and Germany, will affect those countries' abilities to fund and man viable military forces. The analysis includes topics such as immigration, terrorism, the importation of foreign conflicts, and increased nationalistic xenophobia. Finally it examines the implications these demographic changes will have on U.S. national security, in particular the willingness of France and Germany to act as U.S. allies and their ability to invest in defense spending. It concludes that while they are radically changing their force posture, France and Germany will continue to rely on the U.S. military for European security. Also, if Western Europe's social welfare programs are not significantly reformed, demographic forces will necessitate further decreases in defense spending.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Martin, Mark G.
1996-12
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Intelligence Networks and the Tri Border Area of South America: The Dilemma of Efficiency Versus Oversight
This thesis examines the intelligence communities of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay to determine how to better coordinate and share information between themselves and the United States to combat the emerging threat of terrorism within the border region shared by the three Latin American countries. The thesis argues from the standpoint that the primary intelligence effort should be economic and HUMINT due to the currently low threat levels, and that the threat should be handled by civilian agencies. It examines each community based on an Ideal Type intelligence community model that balances efficient, competitive, all-source intelligence organizations with oversight at the various levels. The thesis also examines U.S. foreign policy in the region to determine if it has helped or hindered each country's intelligence community to better align itself with the ideal type model. It concludes with policy recommendations for the United States to develop better bilateral relationships with each country, as well as recommendations to help to form a regional coordination initiative that will allow multilateral intelligence sharing.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Wishart, Eric Gregory
2002-12
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Assessing the Risk of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between India and Pakistan
Conventional warfare between India and Pakistan could inadvertently escalate to nuclear warfare. Asymmetries in military doctrine and capability undermine deterrence stability and could lead to the use of nuclear weapons if the two nations become engaged in a large-scale conventional conflict. Following the 1998 nuclear weapons test, the 1999 Kargil Conflict played out tinder the nuclear umbrella, but remained very limited. However, there is a growing gap in conventional military capabilities, and growing pressure in India to retaliate against Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism and insurgency. India has invested heavily in force modernization, potentially changing the scope of conventional military operations and leading to Pakistan's inadvertent use of nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the possibility of inadvertent nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan. It analyzes the deterrence system that is evolving in South Asia, and describes the conditions tinder which the system could fail. Large-scale conventional war could threaten the survival of strategic forces, or threaten vital strategic command and control functions. Finally, Pakistan could adopt a launch-on-warning posture to guard against an Indian pre-emptive attack. This thesis concludes by recommending steps that the United States could take to ensure peace and decrease de-stabilizing factors in the region.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Smith, Stephen A.
2002-12
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Assessment of the Fiscal Year 1997 Department of Defense Budget and Program Activities for Domestic Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction
This thesis examines Department of Defense involvement in U.S. preparedness to manage the consequences of a nuclear, radiological, biological, or chemical terrorist attack against its cities. It analyzes the establishment and implementation of the Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Act of 1996 which directed the Department of Defense to assist in the training of state and local emergency response agencies involved in consequence management activities. The historical analysis focuses on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, major terrorist incidents since 1993, international standards, and legislative and executive efforts undertaken to combat terrorism up to 1996. The $150 million Nunn Lugar Domenici amendment to the FY-97 National Defense Authorization Bill is examined in detail from introduction on the Senate floor to eventual passage and enactment. Problems and policy issues associated with resourcing and implementing the resulting Domestic Preparedness Program are treated. Although the DoD was given responsibility for implementing city training, an interagency effort ensued involving the Public Health Service, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Energy, and others. Potential weaknesses may materialize due to several characteristics of the Domestic Preparedness Program, including its novelty and uniqueness, the unorthodox legislative process by which it was established, and its complex organizational structure and temporary nature.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Guenther, Glenn R.
1997-12
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Kosovo: The Balkan Time Bomb?
From the thesis abstract: "The conflict between ethnic Albanians and Orthodox Christian Serbs in the Serbian region of Kosovo provides the foundation for a Fourth Balkan War. Kosovo was at the origin of the most recent Balkan conflict and may unravel peace efforts in the future. Serbia revoked Kosovo's autonomous status in 1989 and has instituted a campaign of repression that is currently unrivaled in Europe. The ethnic Albanian majority in Kosovo comprises over ninety percent of the population and seeks recognition as the independent Republic of Kosovo. Initially, ethnic Albanians responded peacefully to Serb antagonism, but impatience with the lack of progress has led to the use of terrorism to achieve political aims. The recent emergence of the Liberation Army of Kosovo (UCK) as the vehicle for the armed opposition has provoked a series of violent Serb crackdowns. Ethnic Albanian leaders of the self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo understand the need for external support and are working to court the international community. Although outside intervention is a sine qua non of a solution to the Kosovo problem, the international community did not address the issue in the 1995 Dayton Accords."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kelley, Sean P.
1998-06
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Overcoming the ABM Treaty: Paths to National Missile Defense
Some of the most heated debates taking place on Capitol Hill surround a proposed American national missile defense system. The debate is not new. For twenty years, the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and its underlying acceptance of mutual assured destruction (MAD) enjoyed widespread support among U.S. leaders. Events of the early 1990s shook support for America's "no missile defense" posture to its very core. The fall of the Soviet Union, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile technology, and the Gulf War presented new challenges to existing strategic doctrine. As a result, a renewed push for a U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) system began in earnest, and a new round of debates began over the utility of the bilateral ABM Treaty in a multilateral post-Cold War international environment This thesis identifies four distinct paths which the United States could follow in addressing the NMD-ABM Treaty debate. Each path is characterized by distinct factors which historically have influenced past ABM system debates. The most likely path to NMD that the United States is following, based on these driving factors, is identified. The potential implications which this prevalent NMD path may have on U.S. Navy force structure and planning is also addressed. Understanding how the current NMD debate is structured and driven enables one to discern which path to NMD deployment the United States is on. This realization can help shape future force planning considerations.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Keenan, Joseph M., Jr.
1998-06
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Evaluating Strategies for Countering Nuclear-Armed Terrorist Groups
A number of recent studies have concluded that the United States is vulnerable to attack from terrorists armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Depending on the circumstances, a terrorist attack with nuclear or radiological weapons could cause more destruction and casualties than one with other types of WMD. Four strategies for improving U.S. capabilities to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are often proposed: (1) to improve intelligence capabilities to gain better knowledge of terrorist intentions and capabilities; (2) to improve security measures in nuclear facilities throughout the former Soviet Union (FSU) and elsewhere, so terrorists will have more difficulty acquiring nuclear materials; (3) to deter terrorists from conducting nuclear or radiological attacks, particularly in the United States; and (4) to improve America's response capabilities to terrorists that have already acquired nuclear or radiological weapons. This thesis evaluates current U.S. capabilities and activities in each of these areas and provides recommendations for improving America's counter-terrorism strategies to defend against terrorists armed with nuclear or radiological weapons.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Fogarty, Jeff J.
2000-12
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Success of Terrorism in War: The Case of Chechnya
From the thesis abstract: "Russia militarily invaded Chechnya in December 1994 expecting to easily suppress the separatist uprising in the region. The Russian Army was unprepared and had greatly underestimated the Chechen forces under the command of former Soviet Air Force General Jokhar Dudayev and his motivated field commanders with recent war experience in Afghanistan, Abkhazia, and Azerbaijan. When Russian forces began to gain a decided advantage (due to overwhelming firepower and numeric superiority) between February and June of 1995 and began to attack the last Chechen strongholds deep in the southern mountains, Chechen tactics changed. The June hostage raid, led by Chechen Commander Shamil Basayev, against Russian civilians in the town of Budennovsk marked the beginning of a successful campaign of terrorism by Chechen combatants that had a decisive impact on the outcome of the war. The Budennovsk episode, which resulted in a short- lived cease-fire, was followed by a series of more varied terrorist attacks between June 1995 and January 1996. These attacks were successful in swaying public opinion against the war effort, in creating widespread fear among the Russian population well beyond the borders of Chechnya, and ultimately led to Chechnya's victory over Russia."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sumner, Dianne L.
1998-09
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Potential Role of the Philippines in U.S. Naval Forward Presence
This thesis argues that the U.S. Navy should attempt to re-establish a presence in Subic Bay, Republic of the Philippines, because Subic Bay offers the best base from which to support U.S. Naval forward presence in the Asia-Pacific region. With the shift of defense focus from the European to the Asia-Pacific region, and the current "War on Terrorism," the problem of finding more secure bases for U.S. Naval forward presence has increasingly become a problem. Four main arguments are used to support this thesis: The Philippines served as the linchpin of U.S. Naval forward presence for almost a century. Second, the Philippines, especially Subic Bay, offers the best basing arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region potentially available to the U.S. Navy. Alternative options, such as U.S. territory of Guam, the countries of Australia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Mobile Offshore Base, present problem of a geographic, political, security, or technical nature. Third, it will suggest that the strategic and political considerations that led to a U.S. departure from the Philippines in 1992 have changed with the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China (PRC), the destabilization of Indonesia, and the Islamic insurgency that affects several southern islands of the Philippines. Finally, the benefits of a U.S./Philippine rapprochement far outweigh the disadvantages.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Garcia, Thomas J.
2001-12
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Surveillance Society and the Conflict State: Leveraging Ubiquitous Surveillance and Biometrics Technology to Improve Homeland Security
The thesis examines the emergence of surveillance and biometrics technologies as a pragmatic baseline supporting the goals of homeland security. Assessment of existing catalysts of the world condition, conflict states, terrorist and criminal networks have facilitated increased U.S. and international attention to the field of surveillance and biometric technology. This study scrutinizes surveillance, biometric techniques, strategies, and prevailing present day applications. It contrasts the evolving requirements for improved security with a balanced consideration of civil liberties and privacy. The authors address developmental issues surrounding the hypothesis for a ubiquitous surveillance grid to monitor and combat terrorism, crime, and other contributing illicit behaviors. The authors recommend that federal, state, local, and corporate agencies unite in improving homeland security by implementing the deterrence, detection, monitoring, and response actions that these technologies have to offer.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Makarski, Richard E.; Marreno, Jose A.
2002-09
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Turkey and the Middle East: Threats and Opportunities
The end of the Cold War and the Second Gulf War affected the Middle East prodoundly. The role of regional countries changed when the end of the superpower competition transformed frozen animosities into new conflict areas. In this context, Turkey extremely involved in regional politics. During the 1989-2000 period Turkey's policy toward the Middle East in general centered on security issues while Turkey encouraged regional cooperation simultaneously. PKK terrorism and the prospect of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq have been the forefront issues in Ankara's agenda. Ankara followed an active policy in the region to counter the regional threats to Turkey, to recover its declining image in the West and to improve its economy through regional opportunities.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Yilmaz, Hasan
2001-06
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Terrorism and Organized Crime: The Alliance of Tomorrow? How to Counter a Possible Future Threat
While in the post-Cold War era threats to international security have become less direct and apocalyptic, they are today more diffuse and insidious. With the probability of large scale, high intensity conflicts decreasing during the l990s, terrorism and transnational organized crime --each in itself-- constitute an increasing and serious threat to the national security of affected nations. Any alliance of these two criminal phenomena is likely to cause a disproportional increase of the overall threat. The thesis, while following an analytical/inductive approach, tries to identity the rationale for such alliances. Although aims and objectives of terrorists and organized criminal groups are different by nature, alliances of convenience have already formed in the past. With globalization apparently working in the favor of terrorists and organized crime, it seems to be only a question of time before they begin merging and start working jointly. Since those criminal organizations tend to exploit the weaknesses of international cooperation by increasingly operating in the transnational sphere, any attempt at a successtul counter-strategy has to meet this threat where it originates. Against this background, international cooperation of law enforcement agencies becomes increasingly important - "Internal Security", it seems, acquires a transnational dimension.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Morbach, Gernot W.
1998-06
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Training for Terror: A Case Study of Al-Qaida
From the thesis abstract: "A recently acquired translated copy of an Al-Qaida training manual is analyzed utilizing the Four Frameworks Model, which states that organizations can be better understood if they are studied from structural, human resources, symbolic, and political perspectives. An overview of Middle Eastern terrorism, a synopsis of the Al-Qaida organization, a review of the contents of the training manual, and an Al-Qaida policy review are also delineated. Of the many conclusions presented, the first states that the Al-Qaida training manual and its precepts are indeed being used to guide terrorist operations. Al-Qaida believe their cause is just based on religious decrees, and that the use of training manuals helps to portray the group in a favorable light, reinforces ideology, and builds support. Al-Qaida have a strong need to rationalize and justify what they do. The success of the World Trade Center and Pentagon bombings may have given Al-Qaida a spiritual boost and hardened their resolve to continue their mission, despite the U.S. War on Terrorism. Recommendations and areas of further research are presented to enhance the intelligence community's understanding of the internal workings of the group."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kreckovsky, Melanie J.
2002-03
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On Deceiving Terrorists
This thesis addresses the use of deception as one means available to states for dealing with terrorists. It begins by exploring the body of theoretical literature to establish the foundation necessary for a thorough discussion of deception. Next, the thesis examines the reasons for state use of deception in interstate conflict. From this list, three potential uses of deception against terrorists are suggested. Specifically, the thesis proposes that states use deception to create and exploit organizational inefficiencies and weaknesses in terrorist organizations, facilitate counter-terrorist operations, and conceal counter-terrorist capabilities and intentions. Subsequently, the cases presented herein reveal that states have in fact successfully used deception in the past with all three purposes in mind. Finally, this thesis also explores the often-overlooked subject of costs and risks, demonstrating that the use of deception is almost never without expense. Even when deception succeeds, its use inevitably incurs costs and opens the door to certain risks. Moreover, the study shows that deception-while both legal and ethical in the larger sense-might be illegal or unethical in certain applications. In the end, though, this thesis shows that deception is, indeed, a valuable tool against terrorists.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Higginbotham, Benjamin I.
2001-12
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Proactive Strategy Toward Terrorism and Transnational Crime
From the thesis abstract: "Terrorist and transnational criminal organizations are evolving into enormous national security threats. Their embrace of advanced information and communications systems has significantly enhanced their organizational efficiency as well as provided them with an exceptional disruption weapons system. The US's heavy reliance upon the information infrastructure, along with the disruptive and destructive capabilities of cyberterror and cybercrime, have created a potentially very dangerous situation. In addition, the proliferation of advanced weapons systems into terrorist hands, including WMDs, requires the US to reassess its counter-terror and crime policy. The current strategy in place to combat these entities is lacking, as can be seen by the World Trade Center and Oklahoma City bombings. The employment of an aggressive, proactive strategy that focuses on information operations is necessary to constrain these growing threats. The proactive strategy is accompanied by new significant costs. However, when compared to the cost of current US strategy, proactive measures are seen to provide enormous overall savings. The proactive strategy is comprised of three elements: intelligence collection, disruption and destruction. Today's advanced technologies provide the US with the tools and weapons necessary to engage in and win the war against terror and crime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hoyt, John R.
1998-12
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Oslo and the Middle East Peace Process: The Negotiating Dilemma
With the increased threat posed by terrorism and the growth of rogue states' the importance of achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East is greater than ever. However, the peace begun in Madrid in 1991 and marked by the historic 1993 Oslo Accord between Israel and the PLO has floundered. This thesis provides a means for understanding the failure of the current peace process by analyzing why Israel and the PLO agreed to the terms of Oslo. While Israel was motivated by the opportunity to solve its security and political dilemmas on acceptable terms, the PLO was motivated primarily by concerns of organizational survival. The Oslo process departs from other successful settlements in two ways. First, Oslo focused on short-term arrangements, without consensus on the nature of the final outcome. An examination of successful settlements shows that the parties agreed to the outlines of a final settlement prior to commencing formal negotiations. Second, the vast imbalance of power between the two parties has made Oslo a hegemonic peace, which itself perpetuates instability in both the weaker and stronger states. Only parties enjoying a relative balance of power have concluded successful peace settlements in the Middle East. Given these structural anomalies, I conclude that the Oslo peace process will not achieve a lasting,peace between Israel and the Palestinians.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chatham, Robert L.
1998-06
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Triangular Deterrence: A Formidable Rogue State Strategy
In an effort to counter the overwhelming U.S. predominance in conventional forces, rogue states such as Iraq and North Korea have adopted a strategy based upon the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD); that is, nuclear, chemical, or biological arms. Moreover, rogue states have refocused their efforts to deter U.S. action from direct confrontation with the United States to threatening U.S. allies or neutral parties in potential contingencies. This strategy might enable a rogue state to avoid direct engagement with the United States as well as to make the most effective use of a small WMD program. Robert Harkavy has labeled this concept triangular or indirect deterrence. This thesis analyzes triangular deterrence as a credible strategy that might be implemented by rogue states throughout the world. The thesis examines historical case studies as well as plausible hypothetical future scenarios, and bases its analysis on a broad body of deterrence theory. It concludes that triangular deterrence presents new challenges for U.S. defense policy and that partial solutions may reside in missile defenses and adjustments in declaratory policy.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Wesley, Kevin R.
1999-12
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Protestant Paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, 1969-1992
Northern Ireland has been the scene of a violent conflict between Catholics and Protestants for the past thirty years. Each side in the conflict has its own paramilitary or terrorist groups. The Catholic terrorists, the Irish Republican Army (IRA), are well known. However, the Protestant community produced its own band of terrorists who are responsible for about one third of deaths related to the conflict. This thesis is a case study of those Protestant paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland and the nature of what has been described as "pro-state" terror. It examines the rise of two key paramilitary groups, the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defense Association (UDA), as well as their composition, operations, and shortcomings. The roots of the paramilitary activity, Protestant strategic culture, and Ulster Protestants' unique relationship with Great Britain are discussed. The close relationship with Britain led to claims of security force collusion with the Protestant groups. This notion of collusion and a specific intelligence operation against the UDA involving a British Army agent, Brian Nelson, are assessed. The thesis concludes with observations regarding the impact of Protestant paramilitaries on the conflict and the need for continued intelligence on their activities and intentions.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Rose, Robert E.
1999-06
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United States Policy and Budgeting for the Reserve Component
This study examines the Reserve Component of the United States, focusing on its composition, the Total Force Policy, the funding process and recent funding trends. Because of the increased use of the Reserves, it is important to understand the process of budgeting for the Reserves and how they have fared in the post-Cold War period of constrained resources. Analysis of past and current force policies, interviews with DoD PPBS personnel and research of DoD and congressional actions provided the basis for this study. Since 1989, the output delivered by the Reserve Component to the Total Force has increase by more than 1300 percent. During this period, inflation-adjusted funding for the Reserve Component has decreased by slightly more than 12 percent. Additional missions in peacekeeping, weapons of mass destruction support and space operations are contributing to the use of Reserves in peacetime. The research concludes that changes must occur to the Total Force Policy, assigned missions and funding to ensure that the Reserve Component remains a viable part of the Total Force in the future.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zawislak, Edward L.
2000-12
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Responding to Saddam: U.S. Policy Toward Iraq Since the Gulf War
This thesis is an analysis of U.S. policy toward Iraq since the Gulf War. UN Security Council Resolution 687 was the formal cease-fire agreement ending the Gulf War, the resolution requiring the elimination of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction and created the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM). Attempts to gain Iraqi compliance with Resolution 687 consumed U.S. Iraq policy for nine years. In 1999, UNSCOM was disestablished without fulfilling its mandate. The Security Council then adopted Resolution 1284 in attempt to introduce a new inspection regime into Iraq. This thesis examines the factors required to successfully compel Iraqi compliance with Resolution 687 and now Resolution 1284. The findings of this research conclude that current U.S. policy toward Iraq does not contain elements needed to successfully compel Iraqi compliance. The thesis then offers three policy options to deal with Iraq. The advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed. The thesis concludes that although current policy does not support the re-entry of a viable inspection regime, current policy does support the overall U.S. objective of containing Iraq. It is argued that this policy should be maintained in the near-term while the United States fully develops regime change as a long-term strategy.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Murphy, Daniel E.
2000-06
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Applying the Multiple Public Good Model for Establishing a Security Policy for Hungary
"This study was written with an aim to suggest a security policy approach for Hungary after becoming a member of NATO. The formulation of the country's security policy started with examination of security threats in general and analysis of Hungary's close security environment in particular. The analysis revealed that the threat of large scale military aggression has disappeared. However, other types of security challenges--economic crises, ethnic hostilities, environmental pollution, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction--prevailed, and the military concerns of security has decreased in importance. The issues of globalization, and diversification of threat perception could be addressed by cultivating a portfolio of security provisions. The multiple public good model suggested by Mark A. Boyer, an associate professor of political science at University of Connecticut, for analyzing defense alliances was an appropriate approach to formulation of Hungary's security policy. Based on the results from the threat assessment and the suggestions of the multiple good model, Hungary's security policy was introduced as a portfolio of defense provisions which in turn was Hungary's contribution to the Alliance. The evidence of contribution to the collective defense was seen through an examination of Hungary's path toward acceptance into NATO and an analysis of domestic stakeholders. The suggested portfolio contained three particularly Important fields: economic cooperation as a means of spreading security eastward, handling the questions of ethnic minorities in neighboring countries, and modernization of the Hungarian Defense Force."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kereki, Laszlo
1998-06
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Chechnya and Russia: Conflict and Self-Determination
The current Russo-Chechen conflict illustrates the persistent tension between the principles of national self- determination and territorial integrity. Russia and Chechnya remain engaged in a centuries-old struggle with no foreseeable end. Many Chechens assert that they are continuing the struggle to break free of Russian oppression which began over two centuries ago. Indeed, Chechens have compared their struggle for national self-determination to that of the United States in 1776. In contrast, Russians argue that they have the right to protect and preserve their country's territorial integrity. In an effort to gain support from foreign observers, Russia has portrayed its struggle in Chechnya as part of the fight against international terrorism. Reaching an acceptable political solution would require compromises regarding the fundamental principles as well as the security and economic interests at stake.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Garvie, Brett A.
2002-12
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Fox Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Reconnaissance System: Lessons-Learned from a Foreign Non-Developmental Item Acquisition
Non-developmental Item acquisitions represent a viable approach to meet procurement needs of the Defense Department. The reduced acquisition cycle times and resultant cost savings of this acquisition strategy presents significant potential benefits to DoD. One weapon system program that has successfully used such an NDI strategy is the U.S. Army's Fox Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Reconnaissance System. This thesis examines the DoD acquisition process and how NDIs are used within the process. The thesis then examines the Fox Program and its NDI Acquisition strategy to determine what factors made the program successful. From this analysis, lessons-learned are identified that can be used by other acquisition managers and their staffs effectively to manage future NDI programs.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Norris, James W.
1995-06
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America's War on Drugs: Who's Winning?
Recently, Congress, the literary community, and the public at large have come to reconsider the war on drugs. There are many opinions regarding alternatives to this pseudo war or new measures to be taken in the war effort, but the ongoing effort itself has escaped evaluation (to determine if the United States is winning this campaign). The intent of this thesis, then, is to explore the objectives of the war on drugs, and to determine if America is winning. This work concludes that the current drug war is failing. The emphasis (supply or demand) and the methodology (interdiction, etc.) need to be reconsidered; and, a new plan which has the support of political and enforcement leadership must be made--its objectives should be made clear, and its goals should be meaningful, measureable and achieveable.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Diaz, Mary Lu A.
1995-12
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Precipitating the Decline of Terrorist Groups: A Systems Analysis
This thesis shows how a government actor can use systems theory to hasten the decline of a terrorist group. Tle author assumes terrorist groups are social organizations, therefore terrorist groups come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. The same determinants that cause social organizations to decline will cause terrorist organizations to decline. Using systems theory to model terrorism as a system, it is possible to show how to influence these determinants to increase the terrorist group's rate of decline. T'he systems model allows a government actor to build intervention strategies tailored to counter a specific terrorist organization. The government actor can use the model to identify and then target the terrorist's weak points. It also enables the government actor to determine its own strengths and to use them against the terrorist system weak points. Finally, the analysis tests the model against case studies of the Red Brigades in Italy, and the Front De Liberation du Quebec (FLQ) in Canada. A case study of Abu Nidal tests the proposition that terrorist groups, like other social organizations, eventually come to value organizational survival over ideological or programmatic achievements. Terror as a system, Red brigades, FLQ, Critical error, Delegitimization, Mercurial success, Burnout, Environmental entropy, Government response, Media
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeGhetto, Todd H.
1994-03
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Overcoming Ambivalence: The Case for Japanese Martial Internationalism
This thesis seeks to demonstrate that Japan can best satisfy its international security interests by assuming a combatant role in current and future multinational military coalitions. The thesis labels this alternative military posture "martial internationalism." An understanding of how Japanese military policy serves its overall international security interests is a central concern of this thesis. Japan's international security interests are defined as: (1) shaping a stable international security environment, (2) supporting the United Nations, and (3) upholding the Japan-United States alliance. Factors considered in this argument include trends in Japan's postwar military policy evolution and recent military activities and developments. The nature of Japan's current domestic military policy debate is analyzed in terms of relevant political, social, military, and economic perspectives. Regional and international ramifications of a more militarily assertive Japan are explored. The thesis investigates the potential for martial internationalism to realize Japan's international security interests and to permit a greater Japanese military contribution to the ongoing War on Terrorism. Finally, the thesis offers specific recommendations for both Japan and the United States toward implementing this alternative strategic design.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Greig, Alex R.
2002-09
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Post-Unified Korean Foreign Policy Options: Regional Implications
Following the prospective unification of Korea, presumably under Seoul's guidance, the government would face the choice between policies of alignment and nonalignment with each major Pacific power. This choice will be influenced by historical predispositions, the path of reunification, Korea's domestic situation, and its relations with each power. As long as the present North Korean threat continues to plague the political and security considerations of South Korea, the ROK has no other viable alternative than the U.S.-ROK security alliance. However, after the elimination of the North Korean threat, a unified Korea will be able to redefine its foreign policy options. Currently, given the predominance of the ongoing war on terrorism, the foreign policy options of a unified Korea are not a top consideration for Washington. This permits the People's Republic of China to play a larger role in the reunification process, which could predispose a unified Korea to tilt toward China. In order for the United States to anticipate and prepare for this event, this thesis analyzes foreign policy options of a unified Korea and the possible political, economic, and military ramifications within the realm of international relations that could conceivably occur with the unification of North and South Korea.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeJong, Laura S.
2002-09
