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New perspectives on intelligence collection and Processing
From the thesis abstract: "Intelligence-production activities are typically viewed as part of an intelligence cycle, consisting of planning, collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination stages. Once a request for information is issued, the intelligence agencies mostly deal with the collection and processing activities of the cycle. However, in most situations, there is an enormous amount of data to be collected. This overabundance of information requires methods that select only the useful data, to prevent intelligence personnel from wasting time and effort on non-relevant data. Online learning is an area of research that has gained attention in recent years with applications in areas such as web advertising, classification, and decision making. In this thesis, we develop a model aimed at the collection and processing phases of the intelligence cycle, applicable in situations where the data is obtained sequentially, so that learning algorithms are realistic. We analyze the performance of a modified Thompson Sampling algorithm, to help intelligence analysts make good decisions, regarding the sources from which to collect/process as well as the collection/processing capacity and its allocation over time, in order to bind the risk of missing valuable information below a certain threshold."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tekin, Muhammet
2016-06
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Cooperation Among Nations: Understanding the Counter Nuclear Smuggling Network in Europe
From the thesis abstract: "This research identifies and characterizes a U.S.-centric counter nuclear smuggling network in Europe, and recommends ways to improve its cooperation and effectiveness. The purpose is to provide USSOCOM [United States Special Operations Command], NSHQ [North Atlantic Treaty Organization Special Operations Headquarters], and the larger counterproliferation (CP) community with an understanding of how the current network functions, its strengths and weaknesses, and how it can be improved. The research starts by examining prominent theories of international relations to understand cooperation within the network. Afterward, social network analysis (SNA) is used to define the Counter Nuclear Smuggling- Europe (CNS-E) network and characterize its structure. Lastly, the function of the network is assessed using realistic vignettes based upon current threats in Europe. The results of this research indicate that the CNS-E network is highly decentralized and dense. Cooperation is abundant, though not sufficiently strong to ensure that information is shared. This research concludes by making the following recommendations: 1) The U.S. government should focus on strengthening existing relations, not creating new relations; 2) The network should centralize capabilities and information in regional hubs; 3) USSOCOM and NSHQ should establish strong relationships with law enforcement agencies; 4) USSOCOM and NSHQ can contribute to nonproliferation efforts by conducting threat assessments of European chemical biological radiological nuclear (CBRN) facilities."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Estrada, Ricardo; Minnie, Paul; Kochli, Andrew
2016-06
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Partial Information Community Detection in a Multilayer Network
From the thesis abstract: "Identifying communities in a dark network is a potentially difficult task. The nature of dark networks, and their characteristic of concealing connections within the network, makes community detection an enterprise based on operations and decisions with only partial information. We take this concept of operation with only partial information, and extend it to our work by identifying communities within a dark network using only a single layer from the full multilayer network. Additionally, the concept of identification of terrorist networks within civilian populations is one of ever-increasing importance in our world today. We create a large multilayer synthetic network, and embed a known terrorist network in the larger synthetic network. We construct our synthetic network in a manner to ensure that our terrorist network is not unique, in order to make discovery of the terrorist network difficult. In this portion of our work we are concerned with identifying the entire terrorist network, not just a community within the terrorist network. We use known discovery algorithms to discover the terrorist network, and compare the results to modified algorithms introduced in this thesis and their ability to discover the terrorist network as quickly as possible."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Warnke, Scott D.
2016-06
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Analysis of Cyber Security and How It Is Affecting a Contract Writing System, Seaport
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this paper is to research cyber security and whether it creates inefficiencies and ineffective business support for the DOD [Department of Defense]--specifically, the contract writing system SeaPort. Is cybersecurity becoming too restrictive, making the ability to support the programs and warfighters inefficient and ineffective? What business practices could be put in place to protect the DOD without hindering contract and business support to the warfighter? This research topic came about due to the underperformance of SeaPort when used by NAVSEA [Naval Sea Systems Command] contract specialists at Dahlgren. The research begins with a brief overview of the Internet, cyber security, and SeaPort contract writing system. The literature review describes the private and public sectors with regard to cyber security as well as any policies related to cyber security. Sixteen (16) SeaPort users were surveyed in order to gain an understanding of the issues surrounding SeaPort. We discovered that SeaPort, indeed, was having issues regarding PDF [Portable Document Format] generation, FPDS-NG [Federal Procurement Data System-Next Generation] reporting, and overall latency. A direct correlation between cyber security and SeaPort efficiency could not be proven; however, theoretically, cyber security can be attributed. Recommendations include adding more servers to existing SeaPort network infrastructure and further research conducted by cyber experts within the government with the authority to access direct cyber reports on the system."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Turner, Bill; Belcher, Daniel; Allen, Danielle
2016-06
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Detecting Malicious Tweets in Twitter Using Runtime Monitoring with Hidden Information
From the thesis abstract: "Although there is voluminous data flow in social media, it is still possible to create an effective system that can detect malicious activities within a shorter time and provide situational awareness. This thesis developed patterns for a probabilistic approach to identify malicious behavior by monitoring big data. We collected twenty-two thousand tweets from publicly available Twitter data and used them in our testing and validation processes. We combined deterministic and nondeterministic approaches to monitor and verify the system. In the deterministic part, we determined assertions by using natural language (NL) and associated formal specifications. We then specified visible and hidden parameters, which are used for subsequent identification of hidden parameters in Hidden Markov Model (HMM) techniques. In the nondeterministic part, we used probabilistic formal specifications with visible and hidden parameters, used in HMM, to monitor and verify the system. An important contribution of the work is that we specified some event patterns indicating malicious activities. Based on these patterns, we obtained output to indicate the possibility of each tweet being malicious."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Yilmaz, Abdullah
2016-06
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Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy of Analytical Aid
From the Executive Summary: "Researchers have now produced a number of quantitative studies of the determinants of
nuclear proliferation, using data on all known nuclear weapons programs. But while
scholars have laid important groundwork in understanding the causes of nuclear pursuit,
these studies are primarily focused on 'explaining' rather than 'predicting' proliferation.
Drawing from existing quantitative work, this project uses statistical learning methods to
construct a predictive model of proliferation, focusing on the ability of different nuclear
proliferation theories to make accurate out-of-sample predictions. This study makes two
contributions to the literature on nuclear proliferation and the larger policy debate. First,
it identifies for the first time an empirically grounded set of nuclear 'triggers'-
conditions under which countries are most likely to shift from latent nuclear capacity to
a full-fledged nuclear weapons effort. Understanding these triggers has become
increasingly important, as more states have begun to pursue a nuclear hedging strategy
in which they seek dual-use nuclear capabilities without committing to a weapons
program. Second, this study helps to reconcile conflicting empirical findings in the
literature. Predictive analytics provide a new and useful way of understanding the
substantive significance of existing empirical findings, and of comparing the relative
importance of different theoretical approaches.." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kaplow, Jeffrey M.; Gartzke, Erik
2015-09
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By Force or By Fraud: Optimizing U.S. Information Strategy with Deception
From the thesis abstract: "Military deception (MILDEC) operations have a long and illustrious place in America's battlefield history. To great effect, MILDEC has enabled countless victories in every U.S. conflict since the Revolutionary War. However, the United States has allowed its deception capability to atrophy. Possible explanations for our MILDEC divestiture range from structural insufficiencies to an ethical framework that emphasizes truth and transparency. Simultaneously, the onset of the Information Age has leveled the playing field between state and non-state actors (NSA) and proved that lasting victory cannot be achieved by force alone. Yet, due in part to the difficulty involved in quantifiably measuring information strategy, the contemporary military's acceptance and understanding of information warfare has been limited. This necessitates the re-examination of U.S. information strategy formulation to address more effectively the challenges and complexities encountered in the human domain. To overcome this impediment, this thesis examines the intangible aspects of information warfare and proposes a structured decision-making tool capable of generating precise computations of optimal information strategies. 'By Force or by Fraud' is a quantitative assessment of MILDEC's utility on the modern battlefield that is qualitatively tested against historic cases of information warfare."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Flaherty, Ryan Q.; Phillips, Andrew R.
2016-06
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Terrorist Group Brands: Understanding Terrorist Group Strategies Through Brand Exposure
From the thesis abstract: "Much as commercial firms do, terrorist groups use branding to increase support and thus their capacity to conduct operations. This thesis introduces the new concept 'terrorist brand exposure,' as a reflection of effective brand management strategies and communications among terrorist groups. In that regard, this thesis seeks to merge two vastly different theories, brand theory and terrorism studies, into one package. The research involves a quantitative analysis of the terrorist brand exposure of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the news media published on the Internet between April 1, 2013, and December 31, 2015. The results of this thesis validate that terrorist groups can influence their brand exposure through violent terrorist actions and manage their brand strategies to differentiate themselves from other groups in the global competition for resource."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Greaver, Bradley S.
2016-06
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Applications of Text Analytics in the Intelligence Community
From the thesis abstract: "We evaluate Anseri, a commercial text analytics software, and its ability to assist a military intelligence analyst in the planning phase of major operations. The intelligence cycle involves extensive, timely, and detailed analysis of the operating environment. This requires a lot of reading by intelligence analysts to fully analyze the content. Tools that automate the initial summarization of the topic themes in a large body of text reduce the amount of time spent reading the material and focus the analyst's research efforts by providing a method to prioritize documents based on their relevance to the research topic. Anseri's utility is tested on a corpus of Islamic State press releases to demonstrate the analyst's ability to quickly gain a basic understanding of the thematic nature of the corpus and prioritize deeper research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hall, Daniel M.
2016-06
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Islamic State Battle Plan: Press Release Natural Language Processing
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this study is to develop methods to accelerate and enhance the analysis of Islamic State Movement text documents. We analyze a unique database collected by Dr. Craig Whiteside, which is comprised of nearly 3,000 open-source translated press releases from 2003-2014. Using Natural Language Processing tools, the text data is aggregated into a corpus and processed based on document term structure and frequency. In order to reduce analyst workload, we validate Whiteside's manual analysis and construct cross-validated generalized linear models to automatically classify documents into one of seven types. A cascade classification model outperforms all other models with a mean cross-validated misclassification rate of 5.71 percent. Islamic State Movement operational summaries are classified as type 'Celebrate.' We develop a layered algorithm based on regular expressions and location searches to extract critical information from each attack event and display the details on a map using a web-based interactive R Shiny application. With the ability to automatically classify Islamic State Movement text documents and visually interact with the data contained within those classified as type 'Celebrate,' analysts and decision makers are able to process and understand large amounts of text data more quickly and effectively."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Friedlein, James R.
2016-06
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Model for Real-Time Data Reputation Via Cyber Telemetry
From the thesis abstract: "The federal government faces a monumental task of protecting national security information, advanced warfighting capabilities and the personal information entrusted by hundreds of millions of American citizens. Each federal agency has now identified 'High Value Assets' (HVA) as defined by information sets that our adversaries most typically target. The Continuous Diagnostic and Mitigation (CDM) initiative aims to establish a unified security posture across the federal space with a specific focus on HVAs. This work examines federal cybersecurity initiatives and proposes how data reputation and telemetry can enhance the federal security posture, increase the costs of computer network attack (CNA) of our adversaries, and improve the ability of defenders to drive down the time between when malicious code is observed and when protections are put in place."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Houser, Beau M.
2016-06
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Enhancing the NFL's Counter-Terrorism Efforts: Is the League's Security Scheme Able to Effectively Thwart Terrorist Attacks?
From the thesis abstract: "The National Football League (NFL) has become the unofficial national pastime in the United States due to its massive popularity in terms of game attendance, television viewership, and annual revenues. Because the league is far and away the most popular professional sports league in the world, there exists a risk that its games will be targeted by terrorists seeking either to announce their agenda or simply to inflict as many casualties as possible. My thesis answers the following questions: How adequate is security at non-Super Bowl NFL games against potential terrorist attacks? And how can the government and the league best manage this interface of public and private issues--and secure major-league regular season football games and their tailgates effectively and in a manner that does not scare away the fan base? Additionally, the thesis draws comparative lessons from the security programs at U.S. international airports and in the English Premier League. It concludes that the NFL has largely succeeded in its protective efforts but must yet improve security in tailgating areas, especially in surrounding private lots."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bolstad, Jeffrey S.
2016-09
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Civil-Military Relations and Sexual Assault
From the thesis abstract: "The Bureau of Justice Statistics' Criminal Victimization Survey reported that there were 284,350 rapes or sexual assaults in the United States in 2014. In the same year, the Department of Defense (DOD) Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office (SAPRO) estimated that 18,900 sexual assaults occurred in the military. In recent years, Congress has been increasing pressure on the military to improve sexual assault prevention and response; some efforts to resolve the sexual assault problem in the military have included proposals to alter the military justice system to resemble its civilian counterpart. Yet, as the numbers suggest, the civilian justice system may not be doing such a good job either. Civil-military relations revolve around who controls what. This thesis addresses the role of civil-military relations in regard to sexual assault prevention and response. Through official statistics, documents from the state of California and the Department of Defense, scholarly research, and reports from the media, this paper describes the experience of the victim as he or she navigates through either system. The comparison of the systems side by side reveals that, if the civilian and military communities work together to capitalize on learning from each other, real progress can occur in serving victims of sexual assault in both systems. The power struggle in civil-military relations, over who controls what, tends to distract from the root issue of serving victims of sexual assault. The focus must shift from 'Who is doing a worse job?' to 'How can both systems learn from the other to improve and best serve the victims of these horrible crimes?'"
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Bluhm, Brandi K.
2016-09
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Cybersecurity 'Lanes in the Road' for the Department of Homeland Security
From the thesis abstract: "The roles and responsibilities for cybersecurity within the national government are not clearly delineated. This thesis asks if the current allocations of cybersecurity responsibilities to DHS are optimal for achieving national cybersecurity objectives. To answer this question, the evolution of cybersecurity policies within the United States is evaluated, looking specifically at DHS. Additionally, FBI, NSA [National Security Agency]/DOD, and DNI [Director of National Intelligence] cybersecurity roles are identified. The Sony Pictures Entertainment cyber-attack is examined as a case study for how a real-world event is handled, and to determine the pros and cons of the current allocation of responsibilities. The evidence from the Sony cyber-attack suggests that the Secret Service, under DHS, is not ready to conduct a proper investigation for a cyber-attack but that the FBI is. This thesis identifies numerous responsibility allocation changes that would streamline cybersecurity at the national level. The main recommendations are that DHS should be the lead agency for improving and strengthening cybersecurity, while the FBI should be the lead agency for investigating cyber-attacks, unless the attack is against one of the people that the Secret Service protects, in which case they should become the lead investigator with direct support from the FBI."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Shaffer, David G.
2016-06
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Understanding Where America's Public Discussion Takes Place in Today's Society: Case Studies of Concealed Weapons Carry Reform
From the thesis abstract: "Ideally, in America's democratic society, lawmakers pass laws based on the will of the people. The passage of concealed-carry laws across the country would then suggest that there is a significant movement that has pushed these bills through. However, the traditional media has failed to cover this aspect of the changing societal demand. What does this observation suggest about traditional media, which is considered an important medium of public discussion in a democracy? Has another medium for public discussion replaced the Fourth Estate? A case-study approach is used to single out instances in which states that passed concealed-weapons laws did so despite the lack of traditional media coverage. First, this thesis identifies traditional media trends at the state and national levels within the time period surrounding the passage of handgun reforms. Second, the media trend is compared to the passage of gun legislation and concealed-carry laws to establish the breadth, depth, and reach of traditional media's role in the public sphere. Third, alternative modes of information are compared to identify the presence and impact of other media sources on the public discourse. This research compares and contrasts the roles and importance of traditional and social media in the public sphere today, as evidenced by the coverage of concealed-carry laws and related stories. The research suggests that traditional news media is no longer the main forum for discussions regarding gun regulations in the public sphere. Social media's growing influence in the public has led to its emergence as an alternative to traditional media."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Shaffer, David G.
2016-06
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Maritime Cybersecurity: The Future of National Security
From the thesis abstract: "Cybersecurity in the 21st century is constantly evolving and changing in order to meet today's threats. The maritime industry in the United States is no different than any other organization that can fall under a cyber-attack. Currently, no major cyber threat has threatened the maritime community in the United States or national security. Recent attempts to disrupt the flow of the maritime industry, however, legitimize fears over maritime cyber-attacks. The United States has significant shortfalls in maritime cybersecurity. This thesis evaluates U.S. ports and strategies against those of the European Union to examine the impact of cyber issues on the United States and its national security. The maritime community is not cyber resilient and has no specific guidelines or responses in place to deter or prevent a major cyber-attack on the United States. For the United States to maintain its cyber resilience and normal operations at its ports, the global maritime community must address the issues together to maintain global maritime dominance."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hayes, Christopher R.
2016-06
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Does the Department of Defense Possess Solutions for the Department of Homeland Security's Personnel Management Issues?
From the thesis abstract: "Personnel and management problems are hindering the Department of Homeland Security [DHS] in its ability to accomplish its mission. Leadership weaknesses, insufficient education and training for employees, and retention problems divide the workforce across many agencies and threaten to undermine the Department's ability to carry out its objective of protecting the United States. Department of Defense (DOD) practices, however, can serve as a model for change. The DOD has demonstrated a finely tuned system of addressing personnel and management concerns, as developed through the creation of the all-volunteer force and the Goldwater-Nichols Act, which restructured the military chain of command. This research explores how the DOD might offer solutions to DHS through lessons learned from 1973 through the early 1990s--some 20 years of hard-earned experience dealing with issues that are very similar to what the DHS is facing in its infancy."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Frizzell, Joshua D.
2015-12
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Vulnerability of U.S. Agriculture to Foot and Mouth Disease
From the thesis abstract: "The U.S. livestock industry represents a critical economic infrastructure, due to its size and influence on national and international agricultural systems. The high-concentration farming practices that allow the United States to be a world leader in agriculture also present a vulnerability to biological pathogens, particularly foot and mouth disease (FMD). The purpose of this thesis is to stimulate and broaden the discussion of the U.S. livestock industry's susceptibility to an FMD outbreak, regardless of how it is introduced. It reviews case studies of prominent outbreaks in the United Kingdom (2001) and Taiwan (1997). The themes that emerged from these case studies--responsibility and response--informed a discussion of ways to increase U.S. efficiency when responding to an FMD outbreak. The case studies illustrate that FMD outbreaks in thriving livestock industries can have devastating economic, social, and political consequences. The United States should address these and other international FMD outbreaks to improve the preparedness and resilience of the U.S. livestock industry to an outbreak of FMD."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Jochimsen, Aaron A.
2015-06
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U.S. Strategic Communications Against Islamic Fundamentalists
From the thesis abstract: "Strategic communications play a vital role in the fight against terrorist groups, especially in Muslim nations. This thesis analyzes the United States' policies and strategic communications in the post-September 11, 2001 war against Islamic fundamentalists to determine if U.S. strategic communication policies have been effective in countering Islamic extremism. From the findings, it is evident that U.S. strategic communications have failed in countering radicalization and moderating the minds of Muslim populations overseas-or among diaspora populations in Western countries. Marginalization and poor assimilation strategies; awkward distribution of competencies between the Central Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon, and the State Department; a lack of global perspective; and failure to learn from past military operations are some of the factors that have contributed to the problem. Reinstatement of a central agency for strategic communications, modeling of solutions for specific groups, and analysis of historical war successes and failures are important in ensuring the effectiveness of strategic communications in the fight against terrorist groups."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schouten, Dustin J.
2016-03
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Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) Command and Control (C2) Capability to Improve Disaster Response and Recovery
"The ability to manage and monitor assets provides undeniable benefits in accomplishing
mission objectives. The value of these capabilities is exponentially greater in disaster
situations. This thesis introduces the BLOS C2 capability as a method of improving
disaster response and recovery by enhancing situational awareness (SA) as well as
command and control (C2). Demonstrated overseas in support of U.S. military
battlespace coordination, the BLOS C2 capability promotes seamless communication and
data sharing by means of sensor data and a truly common operational picture. Using the
proven model that has improved mission effectiveness for the U.S. military, this thesis
uses the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other levels of government
involved in emergency response as case studies for analyzing the BLOS C2 capability in
an effort to fill gaps in interoperability and information sharing. After analyzing each of
these case studies, the application of the BLOS C2 capability will be considered and
evaluated for potential benefits. Once these evaluations are made, recommendations will
be offered that are aimed at implementing the BLOS C2 capability at all levels of
government. These recommendations will provide DHS with courses of action that could
enhance SA and C2, and potentially improve response and recovery efforts in the event
of a disaster."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Schulz, Jr., Robert H.
2013-09
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Insider Threat to Cybersecurity: How Group Process and Ignorance Affect Analyst Accuracy and Promptitude
From the dissertation abstract: "The recent increase in high-profile insider cyber exploits indicates that current insider threat analysis (ITA) is insufficient to handle the growing insider threat problem. Well-established academic literature agrees that information overload is a problem ITA must overcome because ITA remains a human-intensive task. Two conceptual strategies to overcome information overload include reducing information and distributing information among additional people to accommodate the load. This dissertation applies attribution theory and process loss theory to test two ITA factors: ignorance and teamwork. A laboratory experiment with a convenience sample of 48 ITA-trained, top secret-cleared participants supported the research. Participants performed ITA with National Insider Threat Task Force training scenarios and applied the adjudicative guidelines for access to classified information. Teamwork conditions resulted in slightly higher accuracy at a significant cost of time, indicating that ITA analysts are best organized in different structures per informational and temporal constraints. However, ignorance level had little effect on ITA analyst accuracy. ITA analysts were substantially more accurate at implication scenarios but slightly better than chance at exoneration scenarios. Lower decision confidence associated with exoneration scenarios indicated that ITA analysts are more likely to guess when presented with an exoneration scenario. Further research involving larger independent samples and temporal constraints is necessary to verify these findings."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kelly, Ryan F.
2017-09
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Recruiting the Cyber Leader: An Evaluation of the Human Resource Model Used for Recruiting the Army's 'Cyber Operations Officer'
From the thesis abstract: "For the first time since the creation of the Special Forces branch in 1987, the Army authorized the creation of a new branch, the Cyber branch. With this, the Army joined the ranks of other organizations in this rapidly expanding arena. The Army found itself in a situation where it needed to quickly fill the positions required of this new branch. To accomplish this goal the Army developed a recruitment strategy based on the Army human resource management model. The purpose of our research is to evaluate the effectiveness of that model to recruit Cyber Operations Officers and to examine the effects of its continued use. To perform this evaluation we conduct an operational assessment that included identifying and assessing measures of performance (MOPs) and measures of effectiveness (MOEs) based on data collected from: Army institutions; a survey of the Cyber Branch population; and the Person-Event Data Environment database. Our research also examined recruitment strategies and practices in other selected organizations to identify practical recommendations for improvements to current Army practices. The results of this research suggest that while the Army was generally successful in accomplishing the identified tasks of its recruitment strategy, there were inconsistencies in its application. Additionally, through analysis of the survey data we were able to identify attributes that had the most impact on achieving desired effects. Finally, we found that the Army did not recruit in accordance with best practices for the cyber workforce and that it did not use available tools to measure aptitude in its recruitment and the selection process. We identify some practical implications and provide recommendations for further research in this fast-paced operational environment." Supplemental statistical information for this thesis may be found at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did= 805986]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Nicholson, Wallace C.; Gibbs, Sean A.
2017-09
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Tsunami: Maritime Threat Response Ship
This is a technical report from the Total Ship Systems Engineering project at the Naval Post Graduate School on the TSUNAMI: A Maritime Threat Response System. From the report: "Currently, no specifically designed system exists that provides a forward deployed option to board and search commercial traffic bound for the United States. With the increase in terrorist activity, the need for the United States to protect herself is evident and even paramount. One area of concern is the commercial traffic coming into various seaports of the United States. The desire to meet the potential adversary at the furthest point of attack and not impede the timeline of commercial traffic was the overarching objective for this project. This report describes the designed system of systems that meets the preferred requirements of self-protection for the United States by inbound commercial shipping traffic. The intent of not impeding commercial traffic is also met. Through the Total Ship Systems Engineering (TSSE) process, a system that is forward deployed, addresses multiple ports and combines the presence of smaller interceptors on board a mothership was designed. This report presents the overall architecture of the above system while it concentrates in more detail on the conceptual design aspects of the mothership. The report is produced in order to satisfy the capstone project requirements of the TSSE program at the Naval Postgraduate School."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Casias, Juan Francisco; Bauer, John; Boudreau, Brian . . .
2006-12
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Engineered Resupply System for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Operations
From the thesis abstract: "This research examines the effectiveness of resupply systems in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations by exploring different permutations of operational energy (OE)-focused assets and policies that a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) employs to improve its throughput of resources to disaster victims. The basis for the modeled scenario is the support provided by the 31st MEU to the city of Hachinohe as part of Operation TOMODACHI. This thesis focuses on OE and only considers the medium tactical vehicle replacement (MTVR) as the baseline capability. An agent-based simulation is then used to model the effectiveness of OE-focused resupply strategies and capabilities. These options include (1) efficient driving techniques, (2) reducing idling time, (3) hybrid technologies, and (4) follower vehicles. To investigate their effectiveness, this research uses a design of experiments approach to efficiently examine a set of design factors for specified operational plans. Statistical results indicate that the operational plans employing shorter and quicker vehicle convoys that communicate with one another are most effective in resupplying isolated victims. This research also confirms that the employment of OEfocused assets and policies is effective in increasing timeliness of resupply. Taken together, these factors contribute toward increasing the operational reach of a MEU conducting HADR resupply."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kang, Wei Sheng Jeremy
2017-09
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Threshold Shortest Path Interdiction Problem for Critical Infrastructure Resilience Analysis
From the thesis abstract: "We formulate and solve the threshold shortest path interdiction problem, which we define as follows: Find a finite set of arcs to attack within a network such that the resulting shortest path from a given source node to a given destination is longer than a specified threshold. Ultimately we are concerned with determining the number of such attacks and using it as a measure of resilience or lack thereof, in an instance of the shortest-path interdiction problem. We develop and implement algorithms to reduce the required computational effort to solve this counting problem exactly.We illustrate via test cases the impact of different interdiction combinations with regards to the threshold value. Whether these interdictions are random occurrences or intentional, this analysis provides decision makers a tool with which to more completely characterize the resilience of a system of interest."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Clark, Charles R.
2017-09
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Drone Defense System Architecture for U.S. Navy Strategic Facilities
From the thesis abstract: "Small, commercially available unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are an emergent threat to Navy continental U.S. (CONUS) military facilities. There are many counter unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) tools focused on neutralization, and many sensors in place. A system-of-systems, defense-in-depth approach to C-UAS requires a central system to connect these new and existing systems. The central system uses data fusion and threat evaluation and weapons assignment (TEWA) to properly address threats. This report follows a systems engineering process to develop a software architecture for that central system, beginning with a requirements analysis, a functional baseline, and the resulting module allocation. A series of simulations in ExtendSim derives the performance requirements by examining the overall C-UAS scenario with currently available technology. Through a sensitivity analysis, the simulation shows that effective engagement range (combination of initial target range, detection range and neutralization range) is the dominant factor driving response time. The architecture modeled in Innoslate provides a discrete event simulation for system performance expectations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Arteche, David; Chivers, Kenneth; Howard, Bryce . . .
2017-09
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Mission Planning for Heterogeneous Uxvs Operating in a Post-Disaster Urban Environment
From the thesis abstract: "Time is critical during search and rescue operations, as human survival diminishes exponentially if survivors are not located and recovered efficiently. This thesis sought to integrate technologies into a solution that helps rescuers plan for a mission utilizing multiple autonomous unmanned systems (UxV) for search operations. It exploits methods of image analysis to fuse data into a common map and identify key areas of search interest. The key mission areas were developed by comparing edge detection techniques on images obtained from remote sensing platforms in the DigitalGlobe database. Together with close-up snapshots of the environment obtained from drones, three-dimensional maps were developed by stitching the images together into a comprehensive model for a mission commander's use. With the mission bubbles developed, a probabilistic road map was used to develop an optimal trajectory to the search area. It was found that by connecting to the 20 nearest neighboring points in the K-dimensional graph instead of all the points, and using the weighted heuristic method for the A* search, formed the most optimal means to obtain a solution. Together with a tool to generate search patterns for multiple drones, an experiment at Camp Roberts was conducted successfully. Technology was effectively used in the development of a mission-planning tool utilizing a set of heterogeneous unmanned systems for a search mission, which can be expanded for various types of military applications."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Tan, Choon Seng Leon Mark
2017-09
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Volunteer Flying Organizations: Law Enforcement's Untapped Resource
From the thesis abstract: "Given the fiscal constraints of today's law enforcement environment, many local police and sheriff agencies are unable to fully implement an aviation division due to the inherent costs to operate aircraft and pay professional law enforcement pilots. To cope with the extreme costs, some smaller police forces around the country have relied on the help of volunteer civilian pilots to augment law enforcement based aviation operations. This thesis uses recommendations of the Public Safety Aviation Accreditation Commission (PSAAC) to provide a foundational understanding on the critical aspects of running a law enforcement aviation division. By using PSAAC as the foundation, this thesis compares the aviation divisions of the following agencies: California Highway Patrol (CHP), Monterey County Aero Squadron (MCAS), and Lane County Sheriff's Office (LCSO). Comparing the all-volunteer divisions of MCAS and LCSO to the professional force of CHP yielded a list of best practices for the law enforcement aviation community."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Laird, Christopher R.
2016-12
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NATO's Preparedness For Cyberwar
From the thesis abstract: "The advent of cyberspace has created a new, unregulated dimension of warfare, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has striven to manage. This thesis raises the following question: To what extent is NATO cybernetically, politically, militarily, and economically prepared to respond to a major act of cyberwar against one or more of its members? The thesis evaluates NATO's level of preparedness across seven areas: cyber strategy, cyber cooperation, decision making, political will, crisis management, defense spending, and defense policy prioritization. The thesis concludes that NATO is moderately prepared to respond effectively to a major act of cyberwar launched against one or more of the Allies. NATO's implementation of its cyber policies and cooperative partnerships probably make it cybernetically prepared to address major acts of cyberwar; however, challenges with decision making, public support, crisis management, defense spending, and defense policies could make NATO less than optimally effective in responding with force to acts of cyber aggression that rise to the level of a conventional armed attack. The thesis recommends that NATO enhance its efforts in cyber strategy development, cyber cooperation, decisional delegation, strategic messaging, and defense spending to address challenges resulting from the evolving complexity and heterogeneity of cyber incidents."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Ghavam, Z'hra M.
2016-09
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Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Preliminary Field Study in Improving Collaboration
From the thesis abstract: "The proliferation of emerging and disruptive technologies such as additive manufacturing continues unabated. Such trends vastly increase the likelihood of a pernicious non-state actor acquiring weapons of mass destruction in the near future. In addition, these emerging novel threats have proved particularly vexing for the existing U.S. bureaucracies. Absent the major restructuring of the government, significantly higher levels of proactive inter-agency collaboration will be required to successfully respond to these grave challenges. In this project, we first operationalized a concept of collaboration in terms of increases in transparency, resource sharing, and interdependence across inter-agency actors. In other words, actors are deemed to be collaborating when they share information, make assets available to one another, and become jointly invested in (and responsible for) the resulting decisions. Second, we explored if the use of a formal collaborative process and the choice of venue would have significant impacts on the degree of collaboration observed. A preliminary field study conducted at the U.S. Embassy in Singapore confirmed our intuitions regarding increased collaboration, and provided the springboard for additional research, as well as for a number of policy recommendations."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Lothringer, Derek W.; McGraw, Matthew S.; Rautio, Matthew D. . . .
2016-03
