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Strategy and Logistics for the New World Order
"An interdisciplinary analysis of the post-Cold War world to determine the optimal strategy to attain the national interests of the United States, and the requisite logistic structure to support that strategy. The optimal solution is found to be a strategy based on multinational defense centered on a permanent force of United Nations garrison port complexes. This multilateral force would be augmented by as small a national defense force as necessary to ensure national security. The thesis endeavors to reconnect the cultural and philosophical past of the United States with its immediate future. National interests are identified through examination of American Pragmatism and the philosophies of John Locke and Jean-Jacques Rousseau. To determine the current status of common defense, based upon the Foreign Military Sales system, an analysis of current data is accomplished. Future threats to the United States are examined with special emphasis on nuclear terrorism. The ability of Islamic nations in North Africa and the Middle East to produce significant quantities of uranium is demonstrated. The grave political as well as ongoing environmental consequences of this recent capability are discussed in detail."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Gildersleeve, Cory W.
1990-12
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Effective Teaming of Airborne and Ground Assets for Surveillance and Interdiction
"As Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) become more prevalent on the battlefield, ground forces will have to increasingly rely on them for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as target marking, and overwatch operations. The Situational Awareness for Surveillance and Interdiction Operations (SASIO) simulation analysis tool uses Design of Experiments (DOX) to study of aspects of UAV surveillance characteristics in conjunction with ground-based interdiction teams. The goal is to reduce the time required to intercept and capture targets of interest. Through screening analysis, significant factors can be determined to build a model that will provide a ground commander with insights to aid in the tactical employment of his assets. We will examine different teaming strategies and coordination measures between searching and interdicting assets in order to study the effectiveness of the interdictor possessing an organic, tracker UAV. The objective of this research is to quantify the benefit or penalty of an additional UAV asset that is organic to a quick reaction force, in the context of the overall surveillance and interdiction operation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Muratore, Mark J.
2010-06
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Development and Initial Evaluation of the Human Readiness Level Framework
"Proper measurement and management is necessary to effectively translate capability needs and technology opportunities into stable, affordable, and well-managed acquisition programs. The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) has proven to be the tool and process of choice for assessing the maturity of developing technologies within the Department of Defense (DoD). Yet, the TRL has proven incapable of consistently capturing the human-related aspects of technology development and their association with technology readiness. This thesis describes the initial development and evaluation of the Human Readiness Level (HRL). The purpose of the HRL framework is to complement TRLs in program risk management structures within the Integrated Defense Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (IDAT&L) Life Cycle Management System. Further development and evaluation of the HRL framework is required beyond what was carried out as part of this thesis. However, the initial framework takes that first step towards providing acquisition professionals a comprehensive guide that ensures human-centric priorities are addressed throughout all phases and milestones of Defense Acquisition."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Phillips, Eric L.
2010-06
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DE-CERTS: A Decision Support System For a Comparative Evaluation Method For Risk Management Methodologies and Tools
"A new approach was recently proposed to effectively and objectively evaluate risk management methodologies and tools for their suitability to a given organizational situation. The proposed approach, known as CERTS, is based on defining suitability in terms of criteria which in turn are described in terms of attributes and metrics. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, this thesis develops the CERTS approach into a Decision Support System [DSS], that could be used easily and effectively by organizations for selecting a risk management methodology or tool. The thesis also applies the developed DSS to three case studies to gain insights on the applicability of the DSS."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Crump, Leonard A.; Pound, James G.
1991-09
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Radio Frequency Identification's Potential to Monitor Small Vessels
From the thesis abstract: "This study examines the possibility of applying Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology to monitoring small vessels. The study focuses on the technology's applicability to maritime security, resource management, and the public. The costs and benefits of using RFID on waterways are analyzed, with special attention given to privacy and public acceptance. The thesis then discusses a completed proof of concept study and concludes with preliminary guidelines for creating an RFID-driven small vessel monitoring program."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Crofts, John A.
2007-09
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Program-Awareness via Lexical Link Analysis (LLA)
This presentation, created by several professors of the Naval Post Graduate School, is entitled "Program-Awareness via Lexical Link Analysis (LLA)."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Zhao, Ying; Gallup, Shelley P.; MacKinnon, Douglas J.
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Public Key Infrastructure Utilization to Provide an Added Level of Authenticity to Transmitted Data
"Information Systems have a need for a level of security to protect the data when being transmitted from one user to another. This thesis points out a method of protecting data utilizing an end-to-end level of security. The idea is grounded in looking at the advantages provided with the Public Key Infrastructure applied to add a level of authenticity to the data on the receiving end of a transmission. The focus of this thesis is protecting data transmitted across the Internet via e-mail using end-to-end security. This thesis proves that applying PKI as data protection to the Information System Application Layer can be used to provide secure end-to-end connections and e-mail is the tool chosen for this thesis to accomplish this goal. The scope of this thesis is to identify authentic and/or confidential communication of data across an Internetwork. The variables to discuss are the ability to digitally sign and secure the data with the digital signature, establishing a connection to an unregulated network, and confirmation of delivery of the data by an alternate user computer. This thesis will focus on using a public key signature point out how this provides authenticity, with a bonus inclusion of the integrity."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Blackmon, Jason B.
2010-03
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Sovereign Citizen Movement: An Empirical Study on the Rise in Activity, Explanations of Growth, and Policy Prescriptions [supplemental]
This record contains supplemental material for the thesis of the same title. The supplemental material contained in this record provides a spreadsheet titled "Database of Sovereign Citizens," which provides statistical information on 548 court cases surrounding the Sovereign Citizens Movement. The associated thesis may be found at following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=796640]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Slater, Brian S.
2016-09
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U.S. Navy Bloodhounds: Establishing a New Maritime Security Combatant
From the thesis abstract: "To protect the United States' 4.5 million miles of Economic Exclusion Zone, maritime forces are directed to conduct homeland defense missions and support civil authorities as far from U.S. shorelines as possible to protect the country from transnational threats. In order to protect the United States from transnational organized crime regimes and their continued maritime narcotics trafficking, the U.S. Navy requires a surface combatant to fulfill these interdiction missions. Therefore, with the Navy's decommissioning of its patrol frigates, should the Navy plan development of a new vessel, rebuild the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, or refocus the LCS [Littoral Combat Ship] program to replace the current frigate's capabilities in combating narcotic trafficking? In turn, the Oliver Hazard Perry class was a sound platform that performed well, the LCS is a troubled program facing severe financial, stability, and lethality issues, while the design and construction of a new frigate is entirely too costly and time consuming. With these considerations in mind, this thesis proposes the reconstruction of the Oliver Hazard Perry class frigate for maritime security operations, as a result of its illustrious multirole career, survivability, and relatively cheaper price point than the increasingly expensive and unproven LCS ship class."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Donohue, Ryan P.
2016-06
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Optimization of Influenza Antiviral Response in Texas
From the [thesis] abstract: "Influenza pandemics pose a serious threat to the global population. According to the United States Department of Health and Human Services in 2014, the Spanish flu of 1918 killed almost 100 million people worldwide and Simonsen, Spreeuwenberg, and Lustig in 2013 estimated that the Swine flu more recently killed approximately 180,000 people. Government agencies, from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention down to state and local regions, are prepared to respond to potential influenza pandemics with antiviral, vaccine, and social interventions. Mathematical models can guide policies to saves lives. In this thesis, we create an optimization model, implemented in the online tool Texas Antiviral Release Scheduling (TAVRS) that provides the optimal geo-temporal antiviral release schedule to advise decision makers at the Texas Department of State Health Services. We input the antiviral release schedule into an independent disease-spread simulation model to measure the effectiveness of the optimal release schedule. While the TAVRS optimal antiviral release schedule performs comparably to a simple population-proportionate release schedule during a simulated mild 2009-like influenza pandemic, the TAVRS release schedules saves an additional 10,000 lives- three to four times greater- than the population-proportionate release schedule when responding to a severe 1918-like influenza pandemic."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Chambers, Travis L.
2015-03
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Bringing the Meaning Back In: Exploring Existentially Motivated Terrorism
From the thesis abstract: "Radicalization and political violence are traditionally explained as rational, instrumental choices motivated by grievances, deprivation, oppression, and other factors external to the individual. This explanatory model, however, is dangerously incomplete; many radicalized individuals appear to be internally motivated toward violence as a way to bring meaning to their lives. Western philosophy, and the existentialist school in particular, has long recognized the centrality of meaning to human existence. Psychology and sociology have more recently empirically demonstrated meaning-in-life's close connection to happiness, psychological well-being, and even physical health. This thesis examines both the philosophy and science of meaning-in-life, demonstrating the process through which it is produced and terrorism's unique ability to do so. Finally, this thesis examines four case studies across time, place, and ideological basis to establish the influence of existential motives in the history of terrorism. Understanding and accounting for the importance of meaning-in-life and its role in terrorism will help develop effective counter-radicalization and counter-violent extremism programs that account for more than rational, instrumental motives."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dubaz, Nicholas R.
2016-06
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Cyberspace Actions in a Counterinsurgency
From the thesis abstract: "This work addresses the insufficiency of United States Department of Defense joint doctrine for incorporating cyberspace operations into counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns. This insufficiency is addressed through the use of a matrix, which aligns the cyberspace actions described in joint cyberspace doctrine against the COIN tenets outlined in joint COIN doctrine. Each intersection of cyberspace actions and COIN tenets is explored, first by listing the effects that the cyberspace action can produce in support of the COIN tenet. Each list of effects is then evaluated to determine the degree to which these effects are accounted for by current doctrine, whether these effects have been seen in actual COINs, and how significantly these effects contribute to a COIN campaign. To facilitate open discussion, we draw only from unclassified sources. We find that existing doctrine does not address many types of missions and operations that can produce effects in support of the COIN tenets. The intersections with effects that contribute most significantly to a COIN campaign, but are least accounted for by current doctrine, are prioritized; we then propose additions to current doctrine that account for the insufficient guidance. We conclude by addressing the limitations of this mapping and suggesting future research."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kujawski, Andrzej V.
2016-06
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Mitigating Risk to DoD Information Networks by Improving Network Security in Third-Party Information Networks
From the thesis abstract: "Poorly defended third-party information networks can act as an attack vector for cyber attackers to successfully breach larger and more robustly defended information networks. Therefore, third-party networks connecting to Department of Defense (DOD) information networks may pose a significant risk to the DOD. The DOD has attempted to alleviate this risk to its networks by requiring covered defense contractors to meet certain network security standards and by initiating a cyber threat information sharing program: the DOD Defense Industrial Base (DIB) Cyber Security/Information Assurance (CS/IA) Program. However, these DOD actions are not aggressive enough to adequately mitigate this risk to DOD networks. To adequately address this problem, an expanded and more aggressive incentive-based program is required. Existing federal government, incentive-based programs were analyzed as potential exemplars from which to build a new incentive-based network security program. The Department of Homeland Security's (DHS's) Safety Act Program was ultimately chosen as the primary exemplar. Using this model, an Enhanced DOD CS/IA Program was designed to offer the DOD a system that can influence the improvement of third-party network security through a structure of synchronized network security controls and incentives. By implementing the proposed DOD Enhanced CS/IA Program to improve the network security of third-party networks that connect to DOD networks, the DOD can better mitigate the risk of cyber attacks to its own networks."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Kansteiner, Michael J.
2016-06
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Purpose-Driven Communities in Multiplex Networks: Thresholding User-Engaged Layer Aggregation
From the thesis abstract: "Discovering true and meaningful communities in dark networks is a non-trivial yet useful task. Because terrorists work hard to hide their relationships/network, analysts have an incomplete picture of their strategy; even worse, the degree of incompleteness is unknown. To better protect our nation, analysts would benefit from a tool that helps them identify meaningful terrorist communities. This thesis introduces a general-purpose algorithm for community detection in multiplex dark networks using the layers of the network based on edge attributes. The methodology includes community detection details from each layer, yet it is still flexible enough to be meaningful in a variety of networks based on the user's interest. The aim of this thesis is to build on current layer aggregation methodologies as well as preexisting community detection algorithms. We apply our algorithm to three multiplex terrorist networks: Noordin Top Network, Boko Haram and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). We validate our algorithm by measuring adjusted conductance and cluster adequacy with respect to community quality. We demonstrate the utility of our community partitions by developing a community guided network shortest path interdiction model, which disrupts the information flow in the Noordin Top Network."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Miller, Ryan E.
2016-06
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Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Posture: Is Hedging the Future?
From the thesis abstract: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) leaves Iran with residual capabilities that positions it for the rapid development of nuclear weapons should it abandon the deal. This thesis examines how the JCPOA affects Saudi Arabia and what actions the Saudis are likely to take. The Saudi premise of 'whatever they have, we'll have' in regard to Iran leans toward a Saudi Arabian nuclear hedging strategy, but is it feasible? This thesis proposes a model that explores the interaction of threat, domestic factors, and current international nonproliferation regimes and how they drive a nation toward nuclear hedging. The model is applied to the cases of Pakistan, a nuclear proliferate nation, and Japan, the archetypical hedging nation, and later to Saudi Arabia. This comparative case study finds that despite its national will, technological factors--such as an impoverished scientific community--make Saudi Arabia's nuclear hedging untenable at this time. In addition to technical capability, the presence or absence of strong alliances factor into the national decision to hedge or proliferate. This thesis concludes by offering insight into when the United States should reexamine the Saudi Arabian case and what it should consider if the Saudis consider nuclear optionality."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Holloway, William F.
2016-09
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Human Trafficking and U.S. Government Responses Post-9/11
From the thesis abstract: "The thesis examines the effectiveness of U.S. government anti-human trafficking efforts in the post- 9/11 environment. The body of human trafficking literature has revealed four common themes: human agency, labor rights, the sex industry, and crime control. The thesis examines five federal departments that were selected based on their relative experience, expertise, and operational mandates. Open source statistical data and other information gleaned from documents, articles, and reports determine how each department's efforts to combat human trafficking correlate to the four main human trafficking themes. The thesis has illuminated that through experience and initiative, the applicable federal departments properly identify and balance the external and internal aspects of human trafficking. The current state of federal efforts to combat human trafficking are encouraging, as they provide sufficient remedies to trafficking victims who are marginalized, disenfranchised, or subjugated, and provide some trafficking disincentives. These efforts are steps toward the global paradigm shift required to eliminate the exploitation of vulnerable populations and individuals."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
DeCeoursty, Kevin D.
2016-09
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Sovereign Citizen Movement: An Empirical Study on the Rise in Activity, Explanations of Growth, and Policy Prescriptions
From the thesis abstract: "The United States faces a domestic threat that is largely ignored by counterterrorism practitioners and policy: the Sovereign Citizens Movement. The adherents of this antigovernment movement have committed violent, even terroristic, acts and employed paper terrorism tactics. The group clogs courts and harasses government officials, but a paucity of hard data on the Sovereigns has stymied any concerted or unified response. Law enforcement officials have yet to determine how many Sovereigns are active in the United States, where they are concentrated, or whether the movement is gaining adherents. This thesis addresses the dearth of information on the Sovereign Citizens Movement. It relies on both quantitative and qualitative research, providing a detailed analysis of 548 court cases. The assessment of the group's targets, related court vulnerabilities, and relevant statewide statistics can be harnessed into quality policy decisions. This work proves the increasing trend in Sovereign Citizen activities, exposes the gaps in the present literature and domestic terrorism policy, and provides recommendations for prescriptive policy changes across the spectrum of agencies responsible for countering domestic terrorist threats." Supplemental statistical information for this thesis may be found at the following link: [https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=797197]
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Slater, Brian S.
2016-09
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U.S. Response to NEOs: Avoiding a Black Swan Event
From the thesis abstract: "Near Earth Objects (NEOs) present one of the greatest threats to Earth, but currently there is no U.S. or international response and mitigation strategy in place for a NEO impact. This thesis examines case studies from two other high impact low probability (HILP) events--earthquakes and volcanoes--with the intent of applying lessons learned to the formulation of a NEO mitigation strategy. The case studies include domestic and international examples, offering insights into the critical areas of education and training, infrastructure, and communications. Considering the destructiveness of the threat, it would be in the best interests of global leaders to develop a NEO strategy that uses best response practices from these other events. This thesis recommends the use of an early warning system, greater involvement of leadership, and crowdsourcing ideas beyond the public sector."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Dixon, Candice Kiara
2016-09
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Syrian Refugees: Are They a Non-traditional Threat to Water Supplies in Lebanon and Jordan?
From the thesis abstract: "Water scarcity is a critical problem facing the Middle East, more so than any other region of the world. Countries in the area have devoted vast amounts of resources to coping with the decreasing availability of water. Methods from cloud seeding to underground pipelines of desalinated water from the sea are prevalent in government discussions on the issue. These projects have had marginal impacts due to the massive humanitarian crisis caused by the Syrian civil war. With Syrians migrating to other Middle Eastern countries by the millions, the water-stressed states of the region cannot cope with the additional demand on their fragile and failing hydrological systems. This thesis examines Lebanon and Jordan as comparative case studies to explore the effects of Syrian refugees on the water supplies of each country as a non-traditional security threat. Political stability is the ultimate goal of each state; however, the effects of millions of refugees on available water has a significant impact on civil society and the perceptions of the host populations, which may undermine the desired goal of stability for each regime."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Klingseis, Stephen J.
2016-09
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Rescuing Tomorrow Today: Fixing Training and Development for DHS Leaders
From the thesis abstract: "Leadership is an essential quality that all homeland security professionals should possess. Unfortunately, the nature, scope, importance, and complexity of protecting the United States has overshadowed the fact that Department of Homeland Security (DHS) employees are not receiving the proper leadership training. Furthermore, lack of adequate training tools within the department is making it increasingly difficult to deliver the limited amount of available leadership training education. Personnel surveys reveal that the quality of leadership within the department is not getting better, and in some cases, it is perceived as worsening. As the first generation of homeland security leaders and managers depart the organization, DHS has a responsibility to its future generation of employees to identify leadership training and education deficiencies and provide individuals with the proper leadership tools for individual and departmental success. This thesis proposes that senior DHS leaders admit to the leadership training deficiencies, create programs to fill leadership training gaps in an integrated manner throughout the organization, develop accountability measures, and utilize portions of effective training and development programs from Department of Defense and civilian corporations alike."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Miller, Jeffrey M.
2016-09
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Watch Out for the Children: Army Policy and Child Soldiers
From the thesis abstract: "According to the United Nations, there are over 300,000 child soldiers operating throughout the world and the potential that U.S. soldiers will interact with child soldiers remains significant. Military doctrine, policy, and training have been updated to take the current operational environment into consideration. The same cannot be said for the interaction with child soldiers. This thesis will begin to identify and address gaps in the current Army policy and doctrine concerning child soldiers. Additionally, this thesis will begin to identify ways to bridge the gaps identified in order to address how U.S. soldiers can best be prepared when they confront child soldiers on the battlefield. This research identifies that there is a rising issue concerning child soldiers, but that the U.S. Army has failed to implement the necessary changes to support its soldiers in dealing with this when they deploy. The Army references international treaties that the United States is not a party to in order to provide guidance to soldiers concerning child soldiers. This guidance needs to be codified, implemented, and distributed to support soldiers that might be faced with the choice about whether to take the life of a child."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Burkhart, John A., III
2016-06
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Peaceful Protest, Political Regimes, and the Social Media Challenge
From the thesis abstract: "Information and communication technologies (ICT) have transformed with the advent of the Internet and the diffusion of cellular-based communications. Previous research has examined the effects of horizontal ICT on collective violence, but the effects on non-violent expressions are not well understood. Using social conflict data from Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2011, this study employs negative binomial regression models to explore the distinct effects of the spread of social media on peaceful protests within democratic, anocratic, and autocratic regimes. Multiple regression models find strong statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between social media and peaceful protest in anocratic regimes. Autocratic and anocratic states will thus increasingly find themselves in a social media challenge--repress horizontal ICT or embrace it and its effects--as their populations seek democratization."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Childs, Geoffrey D.; Fleming, Randolph J.,II
2016-06
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Big Missiles and Big Decks: The Viability of Aircraft Carriers in an A2/D2 World
From the thesis abstract: "This thesis analyzes the implications of modern anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities on the use of aircraft carriers in executing U.S. maritime strategy. The objective is to determine if there are historical lessons from previous U.S. experiences with A2/AD capabilities that bear relevance on the current debate. Additionally, it analyzes several proposed alternatives to the aircraft carrier. It argues that there are several relevant lessons from previous A2/AD challenges with aircraft carriers and the United States' ability to conduct sea control and power projection, and that none of the aircraft carrier alternatives can sufficiently provide the necessary capabilities across a range of military operations. It concludes that incorporating innovative employment of carrier strike groups in an A2/AD environment, while also pursuing advancements in the air wing's operating range, provides a viable solution to redressing the A2/AD threat."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Coffman, Robert A., Jr.
2016-06
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Pose and Wind Estimation for Autonomous Parafoils
From the Abstract: "This dissertation presents two contributions to the development of autonomous aerial delivery systems (ADSs), both of which advance the prospect of enabling an ADS to land on a moving platform, such as the deck of a ship at sea. The first contribution addresses the problem of estimating the target's position and velocity. A novel, dual-rate estimation algorithm based on Unscented Kalman filtering allows the ADS to use visual measurements from a fixed monocular sensor to estimate the target's motion even when the ADS's swinging motion in flight causes the target to be out of view. The second contribution addresses the problem of planning a landing trajectory considering winds in the vertical air mass between the target's height and the ADS's altitude. A wind model that assumes a logarithmic
relationship between horizontal wind velocity and height in the air mass enables the ADS's guidance algorithm to plan a valid landing trajectory in the presence of these winds. This dissertation contains simulation results for the visual estimation algorithm that show that
estimation errors are minimal after estimator convergence. Flight test results indicate that the wind modeling algorithm was useful for computing landing trajectories."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Hewgley IV, Charles W.
2014-12-09
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Evolving Asymmetric Game for Modeling Interdictor-Smuggler Problems
From the thesis abstract: "We propose a novel network interdiction model that reconciles many operational realities identified by military literature. Specifically, we conduct network interdiction within a dynamic network under partial information, using incomplete feedback and allowing two-sided adaptive play. Combining these aspects in an evolving game, we use optimization, simulation, and stochastic models to achieve a hybrid model. Modeling some currently underrepresented martial problems in this way makes it possible to highlight otherwise obscure relationships between policy and outcome, and to discover emergent effects, such as deterrence. As an example of this class of problems, we consider the struggle between a smuggler and interdictor. The smuggler seeks to maximize the amount of forces and materiel infiltrated from an origin to destination. The interdictor seeks to minimize this smuggler flow. Using two simple examples of an illicit-trafficking network, we demonstrate how to use these quantitative models within such an interdictor-smuggler context to (1) evaluate the value of seizures as a proxy for smuggled materiel, (2) assess the value of exploration, and (3) provide decision makers with practical ways to better allocate resources and increase effectiveness."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Allain, Richard J.
2016-06
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Proof-of-Concept Part Task Trainer for Close Air Support Procedures
From the thesis abstract: "Transitioning between two training phases of the close air support (CAS) syllabus can be difficult for pilots under instruction (PUIs). The level and variety of skills needed for each stage may not be acquired in the previous step, which makes it difficult for the pilot to take the most value from the current stage of training. By providing PUIs with supplemental training solutions that aim to bridge those training gaps, it may be possible to increase the value of the ultimate, but time-limited, training opportunities like simulator and actual flight events. This research prototyped a supplemental training solution that offers a context-relevant, immersive virtual environment that removes the need to fly or operate the aircraft system, thus enabling the trainee to focus only on improving the skills related to problem schema (communication, decision making, and CAS procedures). The resulting system enables repetitive, individual training of CAS communication and procedure skills similar to chair flying combined with tactically correct examples of CAS missions used during 'chalk talks.' An informal user study indicated this approach has the potential to make the transition to the simulator or aircraft much easier and could offer a viable training solution in an increasingly fiscally constrained environment."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Attig, Jesse T.
2016-06
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What Explains the Patterns of Diversification in Drug Trafficking Organizations?
From the thesis abstract: "The purpose of this thesis is to identify the factors that influence drug trafficking organizations' motivations to diversify their operations. With that in mind, the thesis seeks to answer the question: What explains the patterns of the drug trafficking organization's diversification? For this thesis, I have used sources found on corporate diversification, in addition to sources that I have found for three Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs): the Sinaloa, Los Zetas, and Tijuana, to highlight the similarities and the differences in patterns among the three. The thesis concludes that various factors allow the DTOs to diversify into new businesses. First, as is the case in Mexico, the state has to be weak to provide opportunities for the clandestine organizations to diversify. Second, DTOs find opportunities through economic globalization and abundance of organizational resources that they use to motivate themselves to diversify. Moreover, to acclimate to the ever-changing clandestine landscape, DTOs require a decentralized internal structure. DTOs diversify to maximize their ability to cross-subsidize their revenue to combat state suppression. Rather than using hard power to cripple the DTOs, the Mexican government needs to understand their operation to hit them where it hurts, in their profits, by better understanding their operation."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Park, Jung H.
2016-06
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Manned Penetrating Bomber: Time to Reconsider?
From the thesis abstract: "During the Cold War, the United States constructed a nuclear triad, which consists of three components: strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The triad's mission was to ensure that the U.S. nuclear force would not be crippled or destroyed should an enemy attempt a first strike attack against the United States. This in turn offered a credible threat of a U.S.-launched second strike, enhancing the overall effectiveness of our deterrent strategy. This thesis challenges a central tenet of traditional U.S. nuclear doctrine by asking, 'Is the Triad still needed?' Although some in the Air Force, along with various government personnel and those outside of the National Capital Region, have questioned the continued reliance on the bomber, there has been insufficient debate about either the bomber's deterrence value or second-strike launch capability in the event that nuclear deterrence collapses. This research examines the historic and contemporary reasons for maintaining bombers as part of the Triad. This thesis concludes that the strategic bomber should be removed from the Triad and the financial savings be redistributed to the remaining legs of the newly formed nuclear dyad."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Toenyes, Shawn E.
2016-06
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Analysis of Protection Measures for Naval Vessels Berthed at Harbor Against Terrorist Attacks
From the thesis abstract: "The defense of a naval ship berthed in a harbor is a complex task affected by many factors. These include the fishing vessel density close to the ship and the challenge of discriminating neutral vessels from threats. A naval vessel berthed at harbor is more susceptible to attack than a vessel in open seas. The chances of detecting and countering a terrorist boat vary widely depending on several factors, including early identification of the attack and weapons available. This research uses modeling in Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) to analyze the protection measures adopted by naval vessels against terrorist boats. Design of experiments is used to efficiently generate data, which is then replicated using high-performance computing, to address a wide range of possibilities and outcomes. The data generated is analyzed using a variety of techniques. The study concludes that lethality of Blue weapons is the most important factor in determining Blue's ability to counter a Red suicide boat attack. Additionally, the tactic of firing a warning shot followed by disabling shots within the exclusion zone decreases Blue's success probability. Finally, an exclusion zone of at least 60 meters that is enforced with a patrol boat is recommended."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Sikandar, Raja I.
2016-06
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Impact of Underwater Explosions on Concrete Bridge Foundations
From the thesis abstract: "In the event an underwater improvised explosive device (IED) were placed near a bridge, Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD) units would typically mitigate the threat by conducting a controlled detonation of the bomb. The controlled detonation must be executed a safe distance from any critical infrastructure to ensure the survivability of the structure. This thesis implements the Dynamic System Mechanics Advanced Simulation to characterize a safe detonation distance by determining the critical scenario contributing toward bridge failure. Efforts were also made to determine the parameters critical to modeling bridge foundations. To characterize the most critical scenario, trinitrotoluene was detonated at varying horizontal standoff distances and at varying water depths. The interaction of the underwater explosion (UNDEX) with a bridge foundation modeled from an actual bridge was observed. Intermediate depths were the most damaging to the foundation when the bomb was detonated near the surface of the water and when the bomb was located at the sand-water interface. Subsequently, EOD units should aim for controlled detonations in shallow or deep water. Two parameters, load and rebar reinforcement volume fraction, were varied to observe their impact on the foundation's response to an UNDEX. The damage to the foundation was minimal as the load fluctuated, indicating that these loads do not need to be properly modeled. When the reinforcement was placed entirely in the X-, Y-, or Z- dimension, the rebar perpendicular to the shockwave proved to be the most critical. Changes in reinforcement volume fraction are also not important in short simulations. As the simulation is extended, the dependence of the damage on the volume fraction increases. As such, foundation models do not need to accurately model the load, but must properly model the reinforcement perpendicular to the shockwave and the volume fraction, if the simulation is long. Understanding which foundational components are critical to its survivability allow bridge foundations to be grouped based on these components, such as reinforcement volume fraction."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Loomis, Jean B.
2016-06
