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Laying the Foundations of DPRK Energy Security: 1990-2020 Energy Balances, Engagement Options, and Future Paths for Energy and Economic Redevelopment
From the Executive Summary: "The purpose of this report is to provide policymakers and other interested parties with an overview of the evolution of demand for and supply of energy in the Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea (DPRK) over the last three decades. [...] Building on previous energy balances prepared for 1990, 1996, 2000, and 2005, 2008 through 2010, and 2014, the authors assembled information from as many data sources as possible to update our earlier work and to provide estimates of recent-year energy supply and demand in the DPRK. Somewhat revised results of the 1990, and 1996 energy balances, which provide the underpinnings of our updated DPRK energy sector analysis, as well as a detailed description of input parameters and assumptions used in the analytical process, are presented in Chapter 2 of the Report that follows."
Nautilus Institute
von Hippel, David; Hayes, Peter, 1953-
2021-04
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Let Nagasaki be the Last! 19 Pandemic-Nuclear Nexus Policy Measures in Northeast Asia
From the Document: "This report identifies future scenarios, challenges and opportunities for governments, civil society, and market actors to reduce existential risks, including nuclear risks, in Northeast Asia. The findings are the culmination of a series of scenario planning workshops imagining highly uncertain future conditions and generating a series of 'robust actions' that if taken today would ensure that states and societies are better prepared for future risks. Many of the report's recommendations are drawn from lessons from the pandemic for addressing nuclear threats including constituent engagement, technological solutions, and regional approaches."
Nautilus Institute
Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA)
2021-01-30
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DPRK's COVID-19 Outbreak and Its Response
From the Introduction: "In this essay, Shin Yeong-jeon notes that both the DPRK [North Korea] and the United States say 'No Problem' when it comes to the Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic in the DPRK: 'The DPRK is voicing 'No Problem' despite the economic sanctions of the United States and the United Nations. The United States also argues that US-led international sanctions are not the cause of humanitarian disasters in the DPRK. This 'No Problem' collusion pattern can invite dangerous consequences, which not only distorts the facts but can also lead to many victims, making intervention difficult by missing confirmation timing for catastrophic situations such as famine. This is similar to the 'No Problem' collusion pattern in the North Korean famine of the late 1990s.' In light of the DPRK's emerging Covid-19 and food crises, he concludes that 'The DPRK needs to establish a more open cooperation system with the international community including the ROK and the United States. The United States also needs to make sure that the DPRK is not in extreme situations or makes its worst choices. To this end, it is necessary to change the policy on the Korean Peninsula that the Obama and Trump administrations took in the past, and the core of this is to proceed with step-by-step denuclearization while opening the possibility of peace and prosperity through the vitalization of exchanges between the two Koreas.'"
Nautilus Institute
Yeong-jeon, Shin
2021-03-03
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Role of Cities as First Responders to Pandemics: Focusing on the Case of the Seoul Metropolitan Government's Response to COVID-19
From the Abstract: "This study was conducted to discuss the role of urban governments in the future, including intercity network construction, by reviewing cases of responding to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in Seoul amid changes in the international situation caused by COVID-19. This paper is organized into four sections. First, this paper described the outbreak of COVID-19 in Seoul from January to August 2020 and the Seoul city's response over time. Second, the background of Alliance for Multilateralism and inter-city cooperation in accordance with the changes in the international situation due to COVID-19 was explained. Third, the response of the Seoul Metropolitan Government to the pandemic was reviewed based on the following four characteristics: (i) Social distancing; (ii) Enhanced contact tracing; (iii) Widespread testing; and, (iv) Early preparation. Finally, this paper reviewed how Seoul city cooperated with overseas cities in order to overcome the pandemic crisis, as well as the cases in which 25 autonomous districts of Seoul shared their policies using the Healthy Cities Network."
Nautilus Institute
Shon, Changwoo
2020-10-28?
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Integrating Mini Grids into National Grids: Technical and Organizational Aspects
From the Introduction: "In this Special Report, Chris Greacen describes the technical and organizational aspects of integrating mini-grids into national grids, including technical, economic, and market issues related to interconnecting mini-grids, which are increasingly important in many countries as renewable generation becomes more cost-effective and practical, into national transmission systems. Some of the potential short- and longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic on mini-grid deployment are also noted."
Nautilus Institute
Greacen, Chris
2020-09-22
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Equitable Access to COVID-19 Vaccines: Cooperation Around Research and Production Capacity is Critical
From the Abstract: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has devastated families and communities and disrupted society and the economy; it has caused over 1 million deaths globally and left a disturbing burden of chronic morbidity. The prompt availability of effective and affordable vaccines against the SARS-2-coronavirus [sic] [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] offers the most promising path out of the disease and disruption that the pandemic has wrought. [...] The rejection of technology pooling, the rise of 'vaccine nationalism', and the underfunding (and under-supply) of Covax all look set to produce highly inequitable outcomes in terms of access to vaccination, particularly during the first year or so after the first vaccine is approved. Drawing on a review of access-to-medicines debates over the last two decades, an analysis of the evolving business model of transnational pharma, and taking into account the rising call for universal health cover, we propose a policy platform to promote a more equitable roll out of vaccines in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic."
Nautilus Institute; Nagasaki Daigaku. Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition; Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
Legge, David G.; Kim, Sun
2020-10
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COVID-19 and Labor Demand, Migration, and Military Force Structure Implications in East Asia
From the Abstract: "The Covid 19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has thus far not had the same direct health impact in East Asia as it has had in Europe and the US as death and infection rates have been lower in the major East Asian states. Nevertheless, the pandemic has the potential to have major second order effects in East Asia, especially if it continues for a long time. [...] This paper takes a high level look at the potential long-term implications of the Covid 19 crisis in East Asia by using the demographic lens to examine three areas: impacts on labor markets, possible mass migration scenarios, and the effect on regional militaries. In the area of labor markets, the paper argues that Covid will compel most East Asian states to find new ways of utilizing their older workers and to increase the flexibility of their labor markets. In the area of mass migration, the paper examines possible scenarios having to do with North Korean state collapse and urban-rural migration trends in China. Finally, in the military sphere, the paper argues that the Covid crisis could significantly affect nuclear weapons security protocols in the region, the manpower and personnel policies of certain militaries, and the frequency, scope, and size of major exercises."
Nagasaki Daigaku. Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition; Nautilus Institute; Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
Nichiporuk, Brian, 1966-
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Extended Deterrence and Extended Nuclear Deterrence in a Pandemic World
From the Abstract: "'Extended deterrence' and 'extended nuclear deterrence', as US security guarantees provided to allies, are artefacts of over six decades of US-led policy and planning. [...] In recent decades, the credibility of extended deterrence, including extended nuclear deterrence, has continued to decline. The fragility of the deterrence doctrine was already evident before the appearance of the coronavirus. But President Trump's mercurial approach to the coronavirus pandemic and international agreements has encouraged the allies of the US to look at their national security through the lens of his approach to the coronavirus."
Nautilus Institute; Nagasaki Daigaku. Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition; Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
Behm, Allan
2020-11-15
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Pandemics
From the Abstract: "A pandemic is defined as an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemics have occurred throughout human history and appear to be increasing because of rising emergence of viral diseases from animals (zoonoses). The risk of a pandemic arises from the combined effects of the Spark Risk (e.g. bushmeat hunting) and the Spread Risk (e.g. mode of transmission and population susceptibility). Pandemics have health, economic, gender, social and political impacts. Building pandemic preparedness is complex and requires considerable coordination. In the context of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] modelling of transmission has been central to many government's response including introduction of lockdown and physical distancing. Developing vaccines for novel pathogens is not simple or straightforward and community mitigation measures are essential. There are a number of lessons which have been learnt from the COVID-19 pandemic including acting quickly, extensive testing, digital surveillance, public trust in government and leaders and cooperation between nations."
Nautilus Institute; Nagasaki Daigaku. Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition; Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament
Mascie-Taylor, C. G. N.; Moji, Kazuhiko
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