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Threat Assessment: The Role of Vulnerabilities
From the thesis abstract: "Threat assessment is crucial in each step of thinking about military strategy. Identifying political and military objectives, deterring or fighting, taking the offensive or the defensive, pursuing annihilation or attrition, using the direct or the indirect approach -- each of these basic choices in military strategy depends primarily on the threat. Indeed, without an actual or potential threat, it would be impossible and pointless to construct a military strategy. A fundamental difficulty in threat assessment is that, paradoxically, it is not just the enemy situation that defines the threat. The 'friendly situation' also defines the threat. People naturally tend to focus on the adversary's capabilities and intentions in gauging the threat. But an adversary can be a threat only in relation to one's own situation. An accurate and complete threat assessment requires an accurate and complete assessment of both the enemy and friendly situation. To show the critical but elusive role of friendly vulnerabilities in threat assessment, the author first describes a framework for thinking about threats. He then applies this framework to the origins of the Korean War. The outbreak of the Korean War is relevant because it involved, and may even have resulted from, a threat assessment based on mistakes about friendly capabilities and intentions. Finally, the author use the Korean War example to say that self-awareness of vulnerabilities plays a dual role in threat assessment: people use vulnerabilities not only to calculate the threat level and prescribe a response to the threat, but also to describe the threat in the first place."
National War College (U.S.)
Myers, Col
1991-04-11
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New Threat to National Security: Environmental Deterioration
From the thesis abstract: "Since the mid 1960s, 'national security' has been conceptualized in almost strictly military terms, rooted in the assumption that the principal threat to security comes from the military actions of other nations. […] Consideration of military threats, particularly from the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries, has become so dominant that new threats to U.S. security, such as economic and environmental threats which military forces cannot address and may in fact exacerbate, tend to be ignored. […] The deterioration of the global environment is on a scale that encompasses the major life-supporting systems of the earth's biosphere. It includes the exhaustion of soils, loss of forests, alteration of the earth's climate and biogeochemical cycles, the accumulation of hazardous and radioactive wastes, and the decline of ecological communities. […] Although environmental deterioration threatens the security of all nations by undermining the resource support systems on which human activity and economic well-being depend, most countries are doing little to preserve their environmental security. In 1986, for example, the U.S. spent about $275 billion on military defense but only $18 billion to address environmental threats which are as concrete and potentially as devastating as our perceived military threat."
National War College (U.S.)
Patterson, Sue H.
1989-04-10
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Infectious Disease in the Twenty-First Century: The Need for a Comprehensive Strategy
"National Security Strategy for a New Century" states that "The goal of the national security strategy is to ensure the protection of out nation's fundamental and enduring needs: protect the lives and safety of Americans, maintain the sovereignty of the United States with its values, institutions and territory intact, and promote the prosperity and well-being of the nation and its people". It is clear that infectious disease, whether naturally occurring or purposefully introduced, has the capability to complicate and frustrate efforts to achieve every facet of this goal. This paper will examine the different elements of the infectious disease threat and will identify potential opportunities arising from the unique nature of the threat. The Clinton Administration's expanded dual-track approach to strategy in this arena will be considered and potential problems will be identified. Finally, the paper proposes formulating a comprehensive infectious disease control strategy to better address this complex threat and makes some recommendations regarding its content.
National War College (U.S.)
Mason, Peter W.
1999-04-26
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Time for a Change: The Costs and Benefits of the U.S. Relationship with Israel
From the thesis abstract: "Containment evaporated as the foundation of American foreign policy with the end of the Cold War. Washington is searching for a replacement -- for a strategy which will serve American interests under current conditions of reduced threat and limited resources. Domestic affairs have taken precedence over foreign policy, the economy over defense. The government is pinching pennies -- and raising taxes -- to make up for quadrupling the national debt in a score of years. As we adjust to the straitened circumstances of the post-containment era, it is appropriate to reevaluate all aspects of our foreign policy, particularly those which are most costly. We need to ask whether past programs serve American interests, whether they produce benefits commensurate with their costs, and whether we can afford to maintain them in the future. This paper considers the costs and benefits of support for Israel from the perspective of American interests."
National War College (U.S.)
McLean, Martin
1993-04
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Partnership for Peace: What's Next for NATO?
From the thesis abstract: "The Partnership for Peace (PFP) is a significant step forward in solving a dilemma that NATO has been struggling with since the end of the Cold War. That dilemma has been whether to expand or not. It appears the Alliance has accepted, in principle, that PFP will lead to NATO expansion. However, it is still unclear exactly how and when the expansion will take place. Even more unclear is who will be accepted as a member, and who will not. The five objectives of PFP are as follows: (1) facilitation of transparency in national defense planning and budgeting processes; (2) ensuring democratic control of defense forces; (3) maintenance of the capability and readiness to contribute, subject to constitutional considerations, to operations under the authority of the United Nations and/or the responsibility of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe]; (4) the development of cooperative military relations with NATO for the purpose of joint planning, training, and exercises to strengthen their ability to undertake missions in the fields of peacekeeping, search and rescue, humanitarian operations, and others as may be agreed upon; and (5) the development, over the long term, of forces that are better able to operate with those of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance. This essay looks at the future of NATO, now that it has endorsed PFP, and discusses how it must adjust to the changing conditions throughout Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The essay examines how NATO has changed since the Cold War; analyzes the specifics of the PFP Framework Document; reviews the advantages and disadvantages of PFP; provides suggestions on how the Alliance should implement PFP, including clear criteria for PFP members who want to join NATO and timelines for doing so; proposes a blueprint for the United States' role in an orderly and meaningful expansion of NATO; and discusses how extending NATO membership to Eastern Europe could affect the placement of U.S. soldiers in Europe and U.S. military strategy."
National War College (U.S.)
Hayes, Timothy W.
1994
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Chinese Military: Attempting to Change?
"Based on the division of topics among the China Regional Study group, the questions in this paper focus on the Chinese military and will be asked to military personnel during the military portions of the visit to China. The Chinese military is trying to transform itself from a land-based power, centered on a vast ground force, to a smaller, mobile, high-tech military capable of mounting offensive and defensive operations beyond its coastal borders. China began a massive reduction of 500,000 military personnel in 1997 over a two-year period that included a reduction of the Army by 18.6%; the Navy, 11.4%; the Air Force, 12.6%; and the Strategic Missile Force, 2.9%.2 (Note that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) includes Ground Forces, Navy (includes Marines and Naval Aviation), Air Force, Second Artillery Corps (Strategic Missile Force), and the People's Armed Police (internal security troops))."
National Defense University; National War College (U.S.)
Brown, Robert B.
2002
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Why GTMO?
"Policymaking, bureaucratic decision-making, and the interagency process are always subject to criticism. They are often described as too slow, too political, too complex, or too much a product of compromise. All of this is true, but this criticism ignores the most relevant and significant fact the process works. And not only does it work, but also it ensures that decisions take into consideration all relevant factors and that they are the best possible decisions at the time they are made. The purpose of this paper is to outline the interagency decision process that selected the U.S. Naval Station, Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, [GTMO] as the location to detain the illegal combatants from the Global War on Terrorism."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
McCallum, Daniel F.
2003
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Why the US Must Shift Its North Korea Policy from Disarmament to Deterrence
"After 11 September 2001, America's top priority shifted from selective engagement to defending the peace against its enemies, particularly terrorists and tyrants. In its 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS), the Bush administration established a primary objective from which all other objectives seem to originate: Prevent Our Enemies from Threatening Us, Our Allies, and Our Friends with Weapons of Mass Destruction.1 The Bush administration viewed North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons program with increased scrutiny and began to question whether or not Pyongyang could be deterred from taking unwanted actions. North Korea's recently disclosed nuclear weapons program, rampant proliferation of long-range ballistic missiles, hatred of the United States, disrespect for human values, and global sales of missile technology to terrorist groups and other rogue states has made it a high-level threat to the national security of the United States and a subject of continuous of debate in Washington and among the media. Because of the high risks of deterring rogue nations and non-state actors, the Bush Administration adopted a strategic objective of disarmament. The NSS implies that if diplomacy does not work in North Korea and Kim Jong Il does not disarm peacefully, he will be forcibly disarmed by the United States and a coalition of 'the willing.'"
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Hamilton-Jones, Lynne T.
2003
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United States and the Koreas: Adding Substance to Sunshine
"For fifty years, the United States pursued a 'status quo' strategy on the Korean peninsula, almost oblivious to evolution in the regional and strategic environment. Thousands of US servicemen spent their year on the 'ROK' and thousands are there now, serving as America's symbol of commitment to maintaining, and if necessary, restoring peace. Today, multiple factors suggest both the opportunity and the requirement for a change in strategy. These include the development in South Korea of strong democratic institutions, a vibrant economy, and a professional military, juxtaposed to North Korea, variously described as a failing or failed state, its people starving while leadership focuses on maintaining a huge military, threatening its neighbors and the world with missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Regionally, Korea's neighbors--Russia, China and Japan--all recognize the success of the South and are concerned with the potential ills posed by the North. Internationally, the end of the Cold War, growth of a global economy, and recognition of the threat of transnational terrorism provide an unprecedented environment for consensus. All these factors combine to provide an opportunity for positive change through a more regional diplomatic focus, a less intrusive American military presence and multilateral balance of power, and greater regional and international cooperation to create a 'better peace.' This paper describes the evolution of these factors in the strategic and regional environment and suggests changes to US strategic policy which forward both the interests of the United States and the region, 'adding substance to sunshine.'"
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Hendricks, Robert H.
2003
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To Fetch a Pail of Water: Can the U.S. Help the World Avert a Water Scarcity Tumble?
From the thesis abstract: "Quite a few Americans lie awake at night, worried about terrorism, wondering where al- Qaeda might next strike. And they reach for a glass of water on the nightstand, to relieve a dry throat brought on by uncertain fears. But if Osama is a real enough bogeyman, his terror pales in comparison to a scenario that few Americans contemplate: what, if in reaching for that glass of water, there was no water to be had? In going about their daily lives Americans think little about the water they drink, cook with, or use to water their lawns. The occasional story of drought in the West, of shriveled crops, of water rationing in the East make barely a dent on the national consciousness. Water seems a given, flowing from the tap, swirling down the drain. Here then a cold bucket of water to rouse Americans from their complacency: within a generation's time nearly half the world's people could face water scarcity and the U.S. government has no national strategy in place to deal with the readily identifiable causes of this potential crisis."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Alsace, Juan A.
2003
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Iraq: Policy of Containment - An Analysis on Why It Has Failed and What to Do Next
"It has been nearly twelve years and three United States (U.S.) presidential administrations since the United Nations (UN) coalition overwhelmingly defeated Iraq during the Persian Gulf War. Immediately after Iraq's defeat, the first Bush administration unofficially indicated its desire for Iraqi president Saddam Hussein to eventually fall from power--although it made it clear to the American people that it was not a primary U.S. objective or condition to end hostilities. With no definitive strategy to ensure that this eventually happen, the administration, and those to follow, settled upon a policy of containment in an effort to prevent Saddam from rebuilding his military forces, including his weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Under the control of the UN, a series of diplomatic, military, and economic constraints were implemented with the ultimate goal of maintaining regional stability. The UN allowed for humanitarian exemptions to this policy in order for Saddam to meet the non-military needs of his people."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Celentano, Ronald J.
2002-10-28
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Countering Chinese Proliferation Activity
"Control of the proliferation of nuclear technology (including fissile material), chemical and biological weapons and their precursors, and ballistic missile delivery systems continues to be a priority for the Administration. While progress has been made with a number of key countries (e.g. Russia, Israel, South Africa, Argentina) to control the flow of technologies applicable to weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), concrete progress with China remains elusive. China continues to serve as the major source of proliferation concern for the United States. It is imperative that steps be taken to alter Chinese behavior since a failure to do so places in danger the whole of the Administration's nonproliferation policy. This paper analyzes Chinese behavior, the threat posed to U.S. interests, and proposes a series of short-term steps to move the situation beyond its current impasse and to bring Chinese comportment into line with prevailing world standards."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Tomchik, Stephen J.
1994
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Nuclear Proliferation on the Korean Peninsula
"The issue of global proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), in general, has obvious security implications for the United States and the international community as a whole as well as regional states where affected. On the Korean peninsula, in particular, where a volatile armistice has been in effect since the cessation of hostilities in 1953, the potential development by North Korea/Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) of an indigenous nuclear weapons capability is viewed as a serious challenge to regional stability with adverse policy ramifications for U.S. national security interests."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Wheeler, William G.
1994
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Iran: Threat or Opportunity? A Selective Economic Engagement Strategy Proposal
From the thesis abstract: "A selective economic engagement strategy with Iran will be more effective towards achieving US interests than the existing strategy of containment. Iran's opaque pursuit of nuclear technology, lack of democratic freedoms, poor human rights record, and support for terrorism conflict with the US interest of peace and stability for the region. The absence of overt engagement with Iran has failed to resolve these issues or alter Iranian behavior. A strategy of engagement utilizing economic means targeted at the Iranian general populace, coupled with a public diplomacy effort espousing economic and political reform provides a way to influence Iranian behavior and build a relationship that supports US interests. This paper summarizes the relations between Iran and the US since the fall of the Shah, the reasons why current containment strategy is not effective, and highlights rising conditions that are conducive to engagement. An engagement strategy centered on selective economic engagement and public diplomacy is proposed, with elaboration of how the strategy can advance US interests. The strategy's potential for success is subsequently analyzed by examining its potential to overcome obstacles to execution and its effectiveness when put into action."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Dooley, Robert C.
2004
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Maritime Patrol Aircraft -- Operational Versatility from the Sea
From the thesis abstract: "U.S. Force structure in the post-Cold War security environment continues to be a subject of constant debate. While the Bottom-Up Review (BUR) thoroughly examined future defense requirements, it actually raised more questions than it answered since the result of that process remains unaffordable. In the absence of a bonafide National Security Strategy, efforts to size and shape the military will undoubtedly continue to be a very difficult undertaking. And with budgetary constraints essentially driving force structure decisions, it becomes imperative that we incorporate and retain cost-effective platforms which have utility across a wide range of warfare areas. One such platform is the P-3 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA)."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Hallowell, Paul E.
1994
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United States Military and the War on Drugs
From the thesis abstract: "The end of the Cold War has brought wrenching changes to the U.S. Armed Forces. At a time when declining budgets and building down are the order of the day, there is one area where the military's role is actually growing: the war on drugs. This paper examines how the military is coping with this new mission, including issues such as organization and operations, and it assesses some of the numerous constraints and pitfalls facing the military as it moves into this unconventional field."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Randolph, David E.
1992-04-13
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National Missile Defense: High-Technology in a Strategic Vacuum
From the thesis abstract: "This essay is an attempt to return issues of national security strategy to the center of the debate over NMD [National Missile Defense] deployment. After briefly reviewing the threat to the United States from ICBMs [intercontinental ballistic missiles] launched by so-called rogue-states and the technical characteristics of the NMD system intended for deployment if the President so decides, I will examine the broader strategic implications of NMD deployment for the United States. I will argue that the expected benefits from NMD are outweighed by its strategic costs and that deploying it will be likely to diminish, rather than increase, American security. I will propose an alternative set of policies to NMD deployment, based on the military and diplomatic tools of statecraft. The proposed policies offer an acceptable level of security against the rogue-state ICBM threat while avoiding its strategic costs -- and will, therefore, strengthen our overall national security strategy."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University
Fox, John G.
2000
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'We Choose to Go to the Moon': An Analysis of a Cold War Means-Developing Strategy
From the Executive Summary: "Strategists often ask 'With the means available right now, what end can we achieve?' However, in strategy design it can be more appropriate to ask, 'What is the desired end, and what means are available to achieve it?' The answer to this question may be, 'If this is the desired end, first this new capability has to be created.' Essentially, what President John Kennedy was asking Vice President Lyndon Johnson in April 1961 was, 'What means do I need to generate if I want to beat the Soviets in a space race?' To succeed, the United States had to use the available instruments and elements of national power to create new means to reach the desired end within the time frame that Kennedy set. With the National War College 'National Security Strategy Primer' as its guide, and using primary and secondary sources, this case study examines how Kennedy determined he could achieve his ends (beat the Soviets in the world competition) in a particular way (shape the world conversation) using means yet to be created (the moon landing)."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University Press
Arnold, David Christopher, 1967-
2022-01
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Violating Reality: The Lavelle Affair, Nixon, and the Parsing of the Truth
"On December 20, 2010, the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) denied the Pentagon's request, endorsed by President Barack Obama, to advance posthumously Air Force Maj Gen John D. Lavelle to the retired list in the rank of general.1 Thirty-eight years earlier, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen John D. Ryan had fired the four-star Lavelle as the Seventh Air Force commander in Saigon for allegedly conducting unauthorized airstrikes against North Vietnam and ordering the falsification of mission reports. Senate hearings in September 1972 deemed Lavelle guilty of both offenses, resulting in his demotion to major general following retirement. Yet a careful reading of documentary and taped evidence, much of it recently discovered and not available at the time of the original Senate hearings, reveals that General Lavelle neither violated the rules of engagement (ROE) that prescribed America's air war at the time of his dismissal nor falsified mission reports. Accordingly, Lavelle should have his rank restored, and the so-called Lavelle affair should serve as a cautionary tale for political and military leaders alike who question the proper conduct of 'civil-military relations' in the complex and often confounding era of modern limited war."
National War College (U.S.); National Defense University; National Defense University Press
Clodfelter, Mark
2016-03
