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Implications of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) on China's Military Modernization
This report documents the results as of the above date of a research project carried out by the author while at the National War College during the academic year 1998-1999. It is an assessment of the future military threat posed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) to the US and its allies in the Pacific. In addition to examining the traditional dimensions of military capability, this report specifically addresses the implications of the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) on this assessment. The following points pertain to the scope and approach of this report. This report is intended to inform the debate over whether China poses a strategic threat to the US and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region. That is whether and in what ways China's military future military capability might alter the balance of power in that region. It does not address whether China intends to alter the balance of power or the likelihood of a conflict involving the US and China. This report addresses only conventional military capability. Nuclear, chemical, and biological warfare capability are not addressed. The report also does not address the possible use by China of "asymmetric strategies" such as sponsoring terrorism or broad based use of information warfare against the US or its allies. This limitation is partly due to time constraints and a complete assessment needs to address these topics However this limitation also reflects the author's perception that these other dimensions of military capability have strategic significance for a great power only in conjunction with conventional forces. The report is based on unclassified sources. A possible classified annex is planned. The time frame of the assessment is the next ten-to-twenty years. Chapter IV, which addressed the RMA and its implications, is based on a combination of published and unpublished work and the author's analysis. The remainder of the report is based on published work.
National War College (U.S.)
Torelli, Paul A.
1999-04-29
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Nuclear Strategy in the New World Order
"For 50 years, the US depended on its nuclear arsenal to provide the underpinning to the deterrent aspect of its military strategy. However, on September 11, 2001, three of four hijacked civilian aircraft successfully completed their suicide missions against high value targets in the United States-the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. US military might, to include its overwhelming nuclear arsenal, failed to deter the terrorists who killed nearly 3000 people, most of whom were Americans. Although the US nuclear force structure, policy and strategy have thus far deterred a nuclear attack on the US, it is not properly postured as a viable deterrent against asymmetric attacks. However, given the proper force structure, policy and strategy, the US nuclear arsenal could provide a greater degree of deterrence against such attacks in the future. This paper will first briefly describe the strategy of deterrence and its underpinnings in basic psychology. Second, it will briefly overview the deterrence strategy of the Cold War and highlight the findings of the Nuclear Posture Review that will serve as the foundation of the Bush nuclear strategy. Next, this paper will consider the ethical issues surrounding the use of nuclear weapons, as both a deterrent and a combat weapon. Finally, the paper will analyze US nuclear strategy and make policy recommendations for using nuclear weapons as part of a deterrent strategy against future asymmetric attacks."
National War College (U.S.)
Parks, Edwin T.
2002
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National Missile Defense: Responsible National Security Strategy or the Final Throes of Cold War Mentality?
"The national security interests of the United States would be better served by shifting the resources currently allocated for developing a National Missile Defense (NMD) system to more crucial programs. On the face of it, possessing the capability to defend the country from missile attack seems like a logical, responsible decision. However, as will be outlined below, NMD development fails to optimize the investment of time, money, and other resources because the system: (1) does not effectively counter the most likely and dangerous threats to the United States, (2) faces significant technological challenges, (3) is very expensive, and (4) creates significant anxiety among both allies and adversaries that could itself serve as a source of instability. While the horrific nature of the terrorist attacks led to bipartisan support for significant defense budget growth in FY 2002, we must expect that economic and political realities will quickly limit further increases. Therefore, the nation's civilian and military leadership must decide which capabilities are most feasible, effective, and appropriate for protecting our vital national interests."
National War College (U.S.)
Kardos, John A.
2002
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FBI Reorganization: Redesign by Committee
"In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the FBI is in the midst of a reorganization that reflects a profound shift in the FBI's mission priorities. Historically the FBI has investigated violations of federal law, reacting after the crime was committed and viewing successful prosecutions as one of the key benchmarks of success. While the FBI has long discharged its foreign counterintelligence mission, this role was limited and often viewed through a law enforcement and case specific prism. The FBI reorganization is geared toward changing the way the agency does its business, increasing the emphasis on looking ahead and around corners, divining trends or threats through better analysis of intelligence, in order to prevent another terror attack. The FBI has undergone previous reorganizations, and major changes were on the horizon even without 9/11, but no reorganization has been so sweeping nor has any been initiated with the intent of so clearly refocusing the priorities of the FBI...How Director Mueller and other senior officials determined the FBI post 9/11 reorganization plan reflects, not surprisingly, the interplay of people, organizations, and processes. Specifically, Director Mueller and senior FBI officials developed the reorganization plan from internal reviews lead by senior FBI managers, inputs from outside commissions and agencies, an acknowledged change in the threat environment, and Congressional oversight."
National War College (U.S.)
Zarone, Arthur J.
2003
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Temple of Antiterrorism Strategy
"It its report of 15 December 2000, the Gilmore Commission recommends that the next President 'develop and present to Congress a national strategy to address the threat of domestic terrorism - conventional, cyber, chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear - from the perspectives of deterrence, prevention, preparedness and response within one year of assuming office.' Similar calls for a comprehensive, fully coordinated antiterrorism strategy have been made recently. The events of September 11 have in an extremely sad way emphasized this need. In this essay I will present a framework for conceptualizing a possible national counterterrorism strategy. To develop this model, I have used a framework elaborated by RAND, which treats the possible objectives of such a strategy and the means to reach them. In a first step I analyze the RAND framework and I propose some adjustments before using it. In a second step I propose the construction of a 'Temple of Antiterrorism strategy' as an integrated model, taking into account the strategic context, assumptions about the terrorist threats, the objectives of such a strategy and the tools to achieve them as well as the key factors for success and the environmental enablers."
National War College (U.S.)
Housen, Roger T.
2002
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U.S.-Russian Cooperation in the War against International Terrorism
"The September 11 attacks on the Pentagon and the twin towers of the World Trade Center elicited an unprecedented outpouring of Russian sympathy and expressions of Russian solidarity with the United States...The declarations of Russian support for the U.S. in this time of crisis lend hope for improved relations with Russia, at least in the area of anti-terrorism. As the U.S. develops a strategy to protect our nation from future terrorist attacks and bring the planners of the September 11 attacks to justice, strategists should explore ways to further U.S.-Russian and NATO-Russian cooperation. Policy makers and military planners should assess the strategic environment and consider the following questions: 1. What common objectives could the U.S. and Russia pursue as we seek to protect our nations' citizens? 2. What elements of national power can Russia contribute to the effort to deter or thwart future attacks? 3. What are the opportunities and risks associated with U.S.-Russian cooperation in the fight against terrorism? While U.S.-Russian cooperation in anti-terrorism is not new, these basic questions still require consideration."
National War College (U.S.)
Petruncio, Emil T.
2002
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U.S. Policy Regarding Iran in the Post-Gulf War Era
"Regardless of its outcome, the current Persian Gulf Crisis will necessitate a thorough reappraisal of U.S.-Iranian relations. A crisis conclusion consistent with the goals of United Nations Resolution 678 will inevitably increase Iran's already significant weight in the regional power equation and, thereby, force U.S. leaders to reconsider the level and character of America's presence in the Gulf. On the other hand, a coalition failure to dislodge the Ba'athist regime of President Saddam Hussein could prompt a wide variety of Iranian responses -- some inimical and others compatible with long-term U.S. interests. Whatever the future holds in store, the crisis will make an already resurgent Islamic Republic of Iran a regional actor the United States simply cannot ignore. This paper advances a framework for developing a new U.S. approach to Iran. It not only paints the historic backdrop against which the Bush Administration must craft its strategic review, but also recommends a policy of cautious rapprochement -- a policy that will require the conduct of tough bilateral and multilateral negotiations dealing with issues ranging from a regional security accord to the fate of American hostages held by Lebanese terrorists."
National War College (U.S.)
Rains, Roger A.
1991-02-23
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Caribbean and the United States into the New Century
"The future of the Caribbean and the future of the United States are increasingly woven together into a fabric of mutual advantage and mutual jeopardy. The Caribbean is our third border, and the ancestral home of millions of Americans from the days of our first Secretary of the Treasury to our current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is a source of trained professionals and illegal migrants, sugar and narcotics, Nobel laureates and revolutionaries, oil and unserviceable debts. As improvements in communications and transportation links accelerate this flow of products, people, and ideas - in both directions - it will become more and more obvious that the successes and failures of one neighbor will spill over onto the other."
National War College (U.S.)
Hays, Dennis K.
1993
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Winning with Words: Strategic Communications and the War on Terrorism
This paper explores the process of incorporating all of the U.S. agencies' tools and talents into one focused, synergistic approach, resulting in an effective communications strategy to win the war on terrorism.
National War College (U.S.)
Haddock, Ellen K.
2002
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Protection, Propaganda or Profit? An Analysis of Commercial Satellite Imaging in Wartime
In order to protect national security, the U.S. government includes a clause in every license that retains the ability to restrict operations of the satellite for reasons of national security. This is commonly known as "shutter control". The goal of this paper is to analyze the "shutter control" issue and the decision making process which led to the government purchase of IKONOS imagery. What were the competing interests with respect to commercial imagery regulation? Was the decision part of an interagency process? What are the government's objectives with respect to the purchases? And what are the precedents and implications these new de facto policies set forward?
National War College (U.S.)
Brunngraber, Michele
2002
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National Missile Defense 2015: An Unintended Consequence
Two of the most enduring vital national interests are the protection of U.S. citizens and our territory. Driven by these interests, the United States began testing a limited national missile defense system intended to protect the country from missile attacks by "rogue" states. By the summer of 2000, missile testing for the national missile defense (NMD) proved inconclusive. This forced President Clinton to defer the deployment decision to the next administration. Given the wide political support for the defense system, however, the president authorized further missile tests.
National War College (U.S.)
Johnson, Keith
2002
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Decision Superiority: Transforming National Security Decision-Making
Despite the fact that an increasing amount of information is available, decisions to use force are often made without a process that relates quantitative and qualitative factors. Presidents have made serious decisions throughout history without innovative processes to assist them, but today's security environment is increasingly complex, dangerous, and quick moving. Today's decisions are executed quickly, in near-real-time, and impact at multiple levels. Senior decision-makers must make very costly decisions without a framework to assist them in understanding the full context and level of risk at that particular point in time.
National War College (U.S.)
Disbrow, Lisa S.
2002
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Ruminations of a North Korean General Concerning the United States' National Military Strategy
This paper will support my firm belief that the United States National Military Strategy is misdirected and unfocused. More importantly, their strategy fails to adequately understand the motivation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea(DPRK) and increases the risk of conflict.
National War College (U.S.)
Hayden, Dave
2000
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Bunker-Busting Nuke: Essential Capability or Destabilizing Weapon?
Many potential adversaries possess deeply buried bunkers where weapons of mass destruction are manufactured and stored. Short of nuclear weapons, a considerable number of these facilities cannot be destroyed. Although some argue otherwise, America needs to develop and maintain a capability to defeat this target set should conflict arise.This thesis will become clear by first justifying the need to hold hard and deeply buried targets at risk, then refuting the arguments that precision low-yield nuclear weapons are destabilizing, and finally, making the case that America truly needs a bunker-busting nuclear warhead.
National War College (U.S.)
Morgan, Michael J.
2002
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Infectious Disease in the Twenty-First Century: The Need for a Comprehensive Strategy
"National Security Strategy for a New Century" states that "The goal of the national security strategy is to ensure the protection of out nation's fundamental and enduring needs: protect the lives and safety of Americans, maintain the sovereignty of the United States with its values, institutions and territory intact, and promote the prosperity and well-being of the nation and its people". It is clear that infectious disease, whether naturally occurring or purposefully introduced, has the capability to complicate and frustrate efforts to achieve every facet of this goal. This paper will examine the different elements of the infectious disease threat and will identify potential opportunities arising from the unique nature of the threat. The Clinton Administration's expanded dual-track approach to strategy in this arena will be considered and potential problems will be identified. Finally, the paper proposes formulating a comprehensive infectious disease control strategy to better address this complex threat and makes some recommendations regarding its content.
National War College (U.S.)
Mason, Peter W.
1999-04-26
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Cooperative Security: The Nuclear Strategy for an Uncertain World
Most leaders share the ultimate international interest to place greater emphasis on conventional military forces and dramatically reduce, if not eliminate, nuclear weapons. But this can only be achieved from a position of strength, not risk. While the Cold War strategies centered on building greater nuclear forces based on a confrontational standoff, the Cooperative Security strategy focuses on reducing nuclear forces found on multipolar cooperation. Their common denominator: Both rely on a position of nuclear deterrent strength. Cooperative Security is not the strategy that will close the nuclear era. It is a first step towards an evolving, comprehensive strategy that reconciles nuclear weapons with the new world realities and embraces, not ignores, the lessons of the nuclear debate. The world has an unprecedented opportunity to dramatically reduce the nuclear threat through cooperation. But to succeed, the US must create a comprehensive new Cooperative Security strategy for an uncertain world that builds upon the proven security of nuclear deterrence while nations cooperatively reduce, if not eliminate, the nuclear age.
National War College (U.S.)
Wilkinson, John L.
1996
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International Law and Terrorism: America Reprises the Lone Ranger in ReSponse to International Terrorism
The question presented in this essay is twofold. First, what, if any, international rules exist to deal with terrorists and other new and dangerous non-state actors on the world scene? Second, is the United States pursuing the most prudent policy to respond to the conundrum of terrorism and similar transnational threats? America may be relying too heavily on unilateral action to respond to terrorism. The author compares the United States to the Lone Ranger in seeking answers to these questions. The Lone Ranger represented the quintessential peace officer except that he operated outside the normal legal system to achieve his goals. He work a mask typical of banditry, he was not deputized as a law enforcement agent, and often used what is initially perceived as unlawful force and violence in achieving his ends. As a result, the Lone Ranger was always explaining his actions and that he was not the bad guy. By today's standards, he would be classified as a vigilante. He did, however, always turn the villains over to the proper authorities, which is his saving grace. The Lone Ranger mentality may be a part of the American psychology. Our attitude coupled with United States hegemony may lead us to reprising the role of the Lone Ranger in the war against terrorism without fully weighing the potential long-term consequences to the rule of law.
National War College (U.S.)
Finnie, Michael E.
1998-09
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International Organizations as an Instrument of Foreign Policy
More than a third of the international organizations (IOs) active on the world stage in 1992 were created by formal international agreements among countries. Most of the rest were created by existing international bodies. It is hard to imagine how world affairs would operate without international bodies such as the United Nations and its affiliates, international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, or functional bodies such as the Universal Postal Union or the International Civil Aviation Organization. Nevertheless, the record shows that international organizations are not permanent fixture on the world scene, but that they are being created and dying all the time. Can international organizations be a viable tool of foreign policy? This paper explores the pros and cons, offering arguments from different viewpoints on this issue, including the moral issues involved.
National War College (U.S.)
Sanford, Jonathan E.
1999
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Information Technology: A Difference in Scope or Kind
This paper began as an investigation of Real Time Information to the Cockpit (RTIC) which involves providing information from one sensor to one shooter. The author quickly found himself drawn into an investigation of something larger and, he believes, more fundamental. Are we at the verge of a "revolution" in warfare? This paper proposes that we in the military have yet to answer the fundamental questions surrounding information technology's impact on operations, organization, or doctrine. In typical fashion we have attacked the hardware problems and left the tougher issues of doctrine and implementation until later. "Later" has arrived and the quicker we come to grips with these most fundamental issues the better- for both our military and our nation. What type of organizational structure do we need in order to take advantage of information technology? What doctrinal modifications are needed to accommodate an information intensive future? Does information technology blur our traditional concepts of strategic, operational, and tactical warfare? This paper, while not offering a detailed analysis of each subject, does generate dome "food for thought". It will center on those information technologies that include real-time and near real-time capabilities in an ever expanding "battlespace". Do today's information technologies really represent a difference in kind or just a difference in scope?
National War College (U.S.)
Gibson, Marke F.
1996-04-24
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How We Have Changed the Way We Think About Nuclear Weapons and Why It Matters
has become axiomatic to note that the world has changed with the demise of the Soviet Union. In the area of nuclear weapons, the shift has been particularly apparent. Although it is obvious that the world has been transformed, it is less apparent how the world has changed, that is, how the observed nuclear changes relate to the end of the cold war. This essay argues that an understanding of nuclear policy-making requires the inclusion of a less tangible factor- a psychological factor- which we will call the "nuclear conception". Such conceptions underlie most nuclear policies and have likely always played a major role in nuclear strategies. The key conclusion of this essay is that the changes currently apparent in the realm of nuclear policy are in part due to the fact that nuclear conceptions are in the process of fundamental change and these changes will have broader implications for US nuclear strategy. This change in conception, while largely sparked by US-Soviet rapprochement, is deeper than the simple suspension of superpower ideological competition.
National War College (U.S.)
Stern, Warren
1997
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Has Congressional Oversight of Intelligence Gone Too Far
In his last public appearance while in office, former Director of Central Intelligence Robert M. Gates went to uncharacteristic lengths in criticizing the growing intrusiveness of Congressional oversight on national intelligence functions. His successor, R. James Woolsey has also been most notable for acrimony resulting in open feuding between Woolsey and the Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence over a host of issues, including oversight. This paper will develop this adversarial relationship in the context of powers assigned under the Constitution of the United States to the Congress and the President. In the context of this discussion, intelligence activities are interpreted to mean those directed at agents or governments outside the United States, related specifically to key federal responsibilities of providing for common defense and conduct of foreign affairs. After briefly reviewing what it is that Congress has done to generate criticism from the intelligence community, the paper then explores the answer to questions investigating the hypothesis: Does the Constitution provide for a national foreign intelligence effort? Is intelligence an activity reserved exclusively for the President? What basis is there for this presumption? What basis is there for congressional involvement and what is the extent of that involvement? Is there credible evidence that they have- in fact- overstepped constitutionally mandated separated powers, creating disequilibrium in the balance of power within government? Finally, and most importantly, is the national interest being best served under the current arrangement and what prospects are there for the future?
National War College (U.S.)
Hutsell, Joseph W.
1995
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Foreign Statesmen and their Statecraft: Saddam Hussein
The purpose of this paper is to apply national security strategy concepts to an analysis of the foreign security statecraft of Saddam Hussein as expressed in the events leading to and culminating in the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The framework used for this strategic analysis will be that put forward by Terry L. Deibel. The design presents five levels of analysis, the first being an examination of the statesman's assumptions of his domestic and international environment; the second level moving to an assessment of national interests and threats. Levels three and four apply to development of foreign policy objectives and assessment of national power and resources respectively. The fifth stage is development of plans and priorities for accomplishing these objectives.
National War College (U.S.)
Barr, William D.
1996
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Cyberwar as Anti-War: The Keystroke is Mightier than the Sword
Carl von Clausewitz discounts the pursuit of a bloodless war as misguided and doomed to defeat. After all, war's aim is to destroy the enemy's forces. How can this goal be accomplished without physical force or combat? Through the ages, war theorists and practitioners have recognized that advances in technology permit new and innovative ways to wage war, even if changes in doctrine often lag changes in lethality. This phenomenon is especially true of cyberwar, which, like air warfare, introduces an entirely new medium to the battle- the realm of cyberspace. It is through this dimension, divorced from geography, that we may be able to stanch the bloody war of Clausewitz.
National War College (U.S.)
Mays, John B.
1999
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Toward a National Encryption Strategy
The 1998 current administration is struggling with the failures and challenges of advocating policy for encryption technology uses, both domestically and for export, because it neglected to develop a vision of what encryption uses meant to legitimate users, focusing instead upon threats raised by those who exploit encryption technology and how that impacted U.S. interests. It appears now that no adequate compromises can be found within the administration's departments. A National Encryption Strategy can provide some relief. In the study of national security, Strategy (with the big S') precedes policy, which in turn leads to implementation or an implementing strategy (with the little s'). This concept and the framework that go with it can provide a guide to solving the current challenges regarding encryption technology controls. In this paper, the author has attempted to report the current dilemma, identify the participants and their views, analyze the issues, and propose such a Strategy. If successful, this approach can provide the administration a fresh perspective on the issues and a means of selecting compatible policies for the variety of areas that are affected by encryption technology.
National War College (U.S.)
Camilletti, Michael H.
1998-05-28
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Civil-Military Crisis? Tocqueville's Theory of Civil-Military Relations
"This paper reviews the current debate on civil-military relations, outlining the mayor lines of argument. It then examines objective research data to evaluate the actual existence of a growing gap between military and society in the United States. It subsequently evaluates this evidence in light of Tocqueville's theoretical framework, set out in broader form in the author's overview of Tocqueville's comprehensive body of thought on military forces in democratic states. It concludes with some possible approaches that take into account the root causes of civil-military tension, in an attempt to escape the essentially a historical trap of viewing this problem (or any problem) as being unique to our times, and thus limiting the options available to address the issue. Why this topic? What is its connection to the national security policy process? Quite simply, policy is formulated and Implemented in a context. This context consists of several important dimensions, among them the economic, domestic political, and international spheres. Policy makers-presumed to be rational beings-attempt to anticipate environmental constraints. Consequently, their perceptions of the policy environment will affect policy formulation. In other words, the policy environment is operative well before implementation; understanding these environmental constraints may help explain policy choices. In this paper, I consider one aspect of the domestic political and social environment on both national security policy formulation and implementation. One of the most provocative descriptions of this environment is outlined in Tocqueville's 'Democracy in America', which deals with a broad range of issues ranging from politics to sociology to economics. This paper argues that Tocqueville's analysis raises serious issues with profound implications for the ability of democratic states to formulate and implement policy relevant to the civil-military relationship. Understanding the characteristics of this environmental constraint may help avoid pitfalls that could have grave consequences for society."
National War College (U.S.)
Neubauer, Martin
1998-12-14
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Ballistic Missile Defense?
"The Proliferation of ballistic missiles... compels the United States to at least evaluate their impact on US security interests throughout the world. First, one must briefly look at the systems that pose a potential threat to the United States. However, we aren't so much worried about the systems, but rather, how they will be used against the United States or US interests. So, there is a need to peer into a crystal ball to predict "the next war." With this as background, then one can appraise the threat of ballistic missiles and likely implications of the threat. Most important, though is the need to create an appropriate response to the threat. Thus, this paper will address the critical characteristics of a ballistic missile defense system designed to meet the needs of the United States for pursuit of its interests. To begin, one must examine the ballistic missile capabilities that the United States may face."
National War College (U.S.)
Moulton, Harold W.
1995
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Clausewitz and Counterterrorism: The Relevance of His Theory to Policy Options and Force Doctrine in Dealing with Terrorist Acts
"This paper will explore those aspects of Clausewitz's theory that, I believe, are relevant to US counterrorist policy by examining the continuum of policy options ranging from response to retaliation to pre-emption. It will posit a thesis that an effective counterrorist policy is one that contains and marginalizes the impact of terrorist acts. Applying the principle of proportionality that is, calibrating the use of force (and other tools available to senior decision makers) in a strict discriminating way to contain and drain terrorist organizations of their power, even if we cannot annihilate them, may be the optimal approach. This paper will begin by examining the characteristics of contemporary international terrorism. It will then discuss principles of Clausewitzian theory that appear most relevant to the issue, as well as analyze the range of counterrorist policy options using those principles as a guide. This paper will conclude with suggestions for a new force doctrine for counterterrorism."
National War College (U.S.)
Young, Frank J.
1997
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U.S. Buyout of North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Effort: A Blueprint or a Mistake?
"North Korea Pact Contains U.S. Concessions--Agreement Would Allow Presence of Key Plutonium-Making Facilities for Years"--this was the headline on the front page of the Washington Post on October 19, 1994. These headlines and the accompanying article reflected negatively on an agreement concerning North Korea's nuclear program which was subsequently signed in Geneva. The need to limit North Korean nuclear capability is an important issue on many levels. While it appears obvious that denying a nuclear weapons capability to North Korea is in the United States' best interests, it is not obvious that this agreement will accomplish that feat. Over and above North Korea's capabilities, the recent agreement has implications of its own, the most notable, in the author's opinion, being that it may set a precedent for future non-proliferation efforts. In this paper, the author will look at this watershed accord between the U.S. and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK); its history, its substance, and the controversy surrounding its implications. From there the author will step to some thoughts on ramifications for U.S. non-proliferation policy.
National War College (U.S.)
Stickford, Thomas E.
1995
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Attack Operations Pillar of Theater Missile Defense: The Need For a Joint Effort
"The threat of a theater ballistic missile attack against military forces of the United States turned from theory to reality the evening of January 18, 1991. That night Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein launched the first of eighty-six SCUD missiles against Saudi Arabia and Israel. The launching of the ballistic missiles exposed a major weakness of the United States military. As a result, significant efforts to develop a defense against ballistic missile attack have been a high priority mission for the Department of Defense (DOD). The DOD ballistic missile defense focuses on two aspects - theater missile defend (TMD) and national missile defense. The first priority of the ballistic missile defense initiative is 'the rapid development and deployment of theater missile defense to protect forward deployed U S and allied forces and allied population centers.' National missile defense, the second priority, provides for security against a strategic missile threat to the mainland of the United States. Theater missile defense is composed of four pillars: battle management command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (8M/C41); passive defense; active defense; and attack operations. This paper analyzes the feasibility of conducting attack operations as a pillar of the TMD concept. A look at the world wide missile threat and the continuing proliferation points to an increased threat in the future. Next, an examination of the U S military's current attack operations doctrine shows it is woefully short. While great strides were made in developing attack operations doctrine, much work remains to integrate the joint effort. This paper concludes by recommending a few ways to increase the synergistic effect of attack operations to destroy the enemy's theater missiles before they can destroy us."
National War College (U.S.)
Sinclair, E. J.
1993
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US Policy in Latin America: It Matters at Home
Until recently, US foreign policy in Latin America was overshadowed by the economic and political turbulence of Eastern Europe, the Baltic, Russia, and Southeast Asia. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the war in Bosnia, trade conflicts with Japan, and a multitude of United Nations peacekeeping initiatives throughout the world captured the focus of senior US policy makers. Latin America, with the cast majority of its states forging towards enhanced democratic rule and economic stability, failed to achieve the same level of keen US interest. The transition from authoritarian leadership to democratic rule and more investment-oriented internal economic policies throughout the region suggested that Latin America ".....was poised for a new boom...Five of the six fastest rising stock markets in the world (in 1991) were Latin American". It clearly appeared that success in Latin America had been achieved. But all in Latin America may not be as it appeared at that time. Unequal distribution of wealth, continuing budget deficits, and growing distrust in governmental institutions remain potential threats to the accomplishments of the past few years. Coupled with the recent financial crisis in Mexico, Latin America has recaptured our attention. This essay assesses US interests in the region, recommends US policy objectives in Latin America, and analyzes alternative strategies for accomplishing those objectives.
National War College (U.S.)
Conover, Bruce R.
1995
