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Foreign Missile Developements and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015: Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate
"The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence requested that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports containing the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of nonmissile threat options. This paper is an unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that is the fourth annual report. The NIE describes new missile developments and our projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or allies through 2015; updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [February 2002]
Congress directed the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress further asked that each report include a discussion of the following: 1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces; 2)The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities; 3)The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities; 4)The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This annual report is the third responding to this Congressional request. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Atomic Energy, and other Russian institutes. It updates the September 2000 report to Congress.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2002-02
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Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
"The international system in 2015 will be shaped by seven global drivers and related trends: population; natural resources and the environment; science and technology; the global economy and globalization; national and international governance; the nature of conflict; and the role of the United States. These trends will influence the capacities, priorities, and behavior of states and societies and thus substantially define the international security environment. The National Intelligence Council (NIC), a small center of strategic thinking in the US Intelligence Community, launched Global Trends 2015 to stimulate US policymakers to think "beyond their inboxes." This work expands the effort of Global Trends 2010, published in 1997. Global Trends 2015 takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker. This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods. Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future. The report identifies global "drivers" and estimates their impact on the world over the next 15 years--demography and natural resources, technology, globalization and governance, likely conflicts and prospects for international cooperation, and the role of the United States. The judgments flow from our best efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of the world in 2015. Analysis will help senior leaders better cope with, for example, the uncertainties involved with the decline of Russia, the emergence of China, or the political, economic and societal dynamics in the Middle East."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2000-12
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World After Iraq: Robert L. Hutchings, Chairman, National Intelligence Council to the Princeton University Washington Seminar, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, April 8, 2003
This speech summarizes findings from the National Intelligence Council's conference devoted to the world after Iraq. The summarization remarks are strictly from the viewpoint of Robert L. Hutchings, as some of the findings and discussions remain classified. Just after the terrorist attacks September 11, 2001, the NIC undertook a similar stocktaking and forecast. Most of the conclusions in the published report hold up pretty well. What that report aptly termed a "clash of civilizations within Muslim countries" has been manifest in both anti-American violence and new pressures within moderate Arab regimes. The report noted laconically that "consensus among the United States and its international allies about the best means to deter asymmetric threats from nontraditional adversaries is not likely to be achieved soon" - another judgment that has proved all too accurate. Perhaps the most important judgment concerned the potentially historic shift in Russian foreign policy toward strategic alignment with the United States. This assessment, together with the forecast of a domestically preoccupied, less confrontational China, hinted at but did not explicitly forecast a realignment of the international system. Mr. Hutchings continues to discuss the realignment possibilities, including the pattern of Franco-German-Russian collaboration seen over Iraq, Russia's orientation which is still in flux, and China's evenhandedness through the whole situation. Much will depend on U.S. actions after hostilities in Iraq. Mr. Hutchings goes on to discuss some critical issues to be faced in the future.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2003-04-08
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Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September: Conference Proceedings, April 18-19, 2002
In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region. During the panel discussions no attempt was made to ascertain the general view of the panel or audience. Many of the points highlighted in these summaries of the panel discussions were noted because they were thought-provoking or outside conventional wisdom. They illustrate the richness of the discussion, but they do not necessarily reflect accepted or prevailing views at the conference.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2002-08
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Role of Intelligence Services in a Globalized World: Remarks by John C. Gannon, Chairman, National Intelligence Council at the Conference Sponsored by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Berlin, Germany, May 21, 2001
This article reveals observations about the future drawn from the findings of a strategic study the NIC published recently called Global Trends 2015. Global Trends 2015 is not just a product. More importantly, it reflects a process of engagement with outside sources of information and expertise that exemplifies how our intelligence community must behave in the future. It has been discussed with several USG agencies, including FBI, military services, diplomats at State Department, as well as with numerous experts in academia and with foreign governments. To deal with this future, these services will require a revolution in five areas: First in communication with senior policymakers who must understand and support their mission and who must benefit directly from the intelligence they provide; second, in collaboration with new partners within governments, with law enforcement, and with liaison abroad; third, in an approach to advanced technology, which will be critical to the world's success; fourth, in the recruitment and development of the skills needed to achieve a specific mission; and, fifth, in the commitment to leverage outside expertise, which will require unprecedented transparency in much of the way this country does business.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-05
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Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East: A Medium-Term Assessment, Prepared for the National Intelligence Council by Paul Jabber, December 27, 2001
The purpose of this analysis is to assess the likely impact that the US campaign against global terrorism launched in the wake of the attacks of September 11th, 2001, will have on key American interests in the Middle East over the medium term (next 12 months). The main focus will be on the expected perceptions and reaction to US policy of selected important Middle East actors, regime stability and changing regional alignments. To render the analysis relevant to policy-making and policy assessment, the approach here will be parsimonious, not comprehensive. The United States presently maintains an extensive and continually growing presence in the Middle East, with diplomatic, military, commercial and cultural dimensions. The region contains long-identified vital US national interests, and security commitments toward several key states. This analysis is structured around two core questions: 1. How will the region absorb and react to the USG's war on terrorism in its regional manifestations, given that by necessity the Middle East will turn out to be the main theater of operations? 2. Which US policy choices are more likely to be effective in limiting the threat of terrorist strikes against the homeland in particular and other countries generally?
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12-27
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Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for The United States
Migration will move higher on the policy agendas of many countries-- including the United States--as new waves of legal and illegal migrants, asylum-seekers, and refugees flee poverty, conflict, and persecution in their native lands. The latest US census underscored this trend in the United States, and it is undoubtedly taking place elsewhere, as well. Rising migration will provide challenges and opportunities to both sending and receiving countries. Sending countries will benefit from emigrant remittances, for example, but they will lose some of their more industrious people, while returning immigrants can play both constructive and disruptive political roles. In the richer receiving countries, migration will alleviate demographic and labor force shortfalls, but it also will add to social and cultural tensions. This National Intelligence Estimate focuses on: The causes and likely social, economic, political, and security consequences of global migration of all types on key sending and receiving regions and countries, the willingness and ability of governments to control migration, the scale of direct migration pressures on the United States, and the impact of other countries' migration policies on such pressures and the extent to which some countries may try to use migration as leverage in bilateral relations.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-03
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National Intelligence Estimate: Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States
"This [National Intelligence Estimate] report represents an important initiative on the part of the Intelligence Community to consider the national security dimension of a nontraditional threat. It responds to a growing concern by senior US leaders about the implications-in terms of health, economics, and national security-of the growing global infectious disease threat. The dramatic increase in drugresistant microbes, combined with the lag in development of new antibiotics, the rise of megacities with severe health care deficiencies, environmental degradation, and the growing ease and frequency of cross-border movements of people and produce have greatly facilitated the spread of infectious diseases."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2000-01
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Letter from Dennis C. Blair: Director of National Intelligence [January 7, 2010]
This message from Dennis C. Blair, Director of National Intelligence, outlines the U.S.'s failure in recognizing signals that Mr. Abdulmutallab was planning a terrorist act. Mr. Blair then proceeds to outline ways in which U.S. security will be enhanced, "1) Assigning clear lines of responsibility for investigating all leads on high-priority threats, so they are pursued more aggressively; 2) Distributing intelligence reports more quickly and widely, especially those suggesting specific threats against the U.S., 3) Applying more rigorous standards to analytical tradecraft to improve intelligence integration and action; and 4) Enhancing the criteria for adding individuals to the terrorist watchlist and 'no fly' watchlist."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2010-01-07
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National Intelligence Council (NIC) [website]
"The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC's center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers - drawn from government, academia, and the private sector-are the Intelligence Community's senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
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Strategic Implications of Global Health
"Strategic Implications of Global Health responds to a request from the Undersecretary of State for Democratization and Global Affairs for an intelligence assessment on the connections between health and US national interests. This study builds on a 2000 NIE, The Global Infectious Disease Threat and its Implications for the United States, a pioneering Intelligence Community effort to identify infectious disease as an intelligence issue. This study diverges from that paper, however, in that it: Expands the field of inquiry to fully encompass all aspects of global health--including maternal mortality, malnutrition, chronic diseases and other relevant non-infectious health issues. While these may not represent direct threats to US interests in the way that acute infections do, these health determinants can also have wide-ranging--if more slow-moving and subtle--impacts on the global scene. Places a greater focus on the strategic impacts of global health, with minimal discussion of disease pathologies. This discussion is based in part on case studies of countries in the developing, communist, and post-communist worlds that illustrate the nexus between health and other strategic issues."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-12
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SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome): Down But Still a Threat
"This Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) was requested by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson and Ambassador Jack Chow, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Health Affairs. It highlights the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the potential implications of the disease for the United States under several scenarios; this paper does not attempt to provide a scientific assessment of the epidemiology of SARS. Even though SARS has infected and killed far fewer people than other common infectious diseases such as influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, it has had a disproportionately large economic and political impact because it spread in areas with broad international commercial links and received intense media attention as a mysterious new illness that seemed able to go anywhere and hit anyone."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Monaghan, Karen
2003-08
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Cyber Threat Trends and US Network Security, Statement for the Record to the Joint Economic Committee
This statement outlines predictions and current trends in cyber and network security.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-06-21
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National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
"National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence Community's (IC) most authoritative written judgments on national security issues and designed to help US civilian and military leaders develop policies to protect US national security interests. NIEs usually provide information on the current state of play but are primarily 'estimative'-that is, they make judgments about the likely course of future events and identify the implications for US policy [...] We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al- Qa'ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities. We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa'ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11." The report also included issues such as possible waning international cooperation in fighting terrorism, the current heightened threat environment in the U.S., al-Qad' ida's efforts to acquire and use chemical, biological, or nuclear material in potential attacks, and the ability of the U.S. to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2007-07
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [2006]
"Congress has directed the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress has requested that each report include a discussion of the following: (1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces. (2) The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities. (3) The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities. (4) The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This report is the fifth responding to this Congressional request, and covers 2005 and 2006. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy (formerly the Ministry of Atomic Energy), and other Russian institutes. It updates the February 2005 report to Congress that covered 2004."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2006-04
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Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on Russia, drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impact as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which regions within Russia are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impact on Russia and other countries/regions."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Joint Global Change Research Institute; Battelle Memorial Institute. Pacific Northwest Division
2009-04
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Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications, Conference Report
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America, held on 31 August 2009, brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America from a social, political, and economic perspective." Conclusions by the panelists include: "climate change may increase prospects for conflict in the region"; "strong civil society organizations play an important role in moderating the effects of climate change as they provide a means of communication between local people and state actors"; "state centralization and control correlate well with emergency preparedness"; "all states in the region show some capacity to recover from damage caused by extreme weather events"; "most states in the region lack the institutional mechanisms to effectively address the long-term threats posed by climate change"; and "the United States will probably face ever-increasing pressure to provide humanitarian assistance to neighbors to avoid large numbers of refugees and to reduce the risk of local conflicts that could require US military intervention."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2010-01
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Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled 'The Implications of Global Climate Change in Russia', held on May 18, 2009, brought together a panel of Russia experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Russia from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists concluded that Russia is reaching a point where serious deterioration of its physical and human capital is a major obstacle to sustainable economic growth and Russia's capacity to adapt and protect its people will be tested out to 2030. Climate change will add additional stress to energy and transportation infrastructure burdens. However, given Russia's high overall state capacity and the mixed or comparatively tolerable nature of most anticipated climate change impacts over the next twenty years, climate change is unlikely to lead to a general failure of the Russian state."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2009-09
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Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities
"This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) assesses the status of Iran's nuclear program, and the program's outlook over the next 10 years. This time frame is more appropriate for estimating capabilities than intentions and foreign reactions, which are more difficult to estimate over a decade. In presenting the Intelligence Community's assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the NIE thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors we judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran. This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment. This Estimate does assume that the strategic goals and basic structure of Iran's senior leadership and government will remain similar to those that have endured since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. We acknowledge the potential for these to change during the time frame of the Estimate, but are unable to confidently predict such changes or their implications. This Estimate does not assess how Iran may conduct future negotiations with the West on the nuclear issue."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2007-11
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Democratization in Africa: What Progress Toward Institutionalization?
"The NIC was the originator and principal driver behind a recent conference held in Accra, Ghana, from 4-6 October 2007. The conference-titled Democratization in Africa: What Progress Towards Institutionalization?-was co-sponsored by the US State Department/US Embassy Ghana and the Center for Democratic Development o(CDD), a research and democracy promotion organization based on Ghana. The conference was co-chaired by the Director of the CDD, I. Gyimah-Boadi, and Larry Diamond, from the Hoover Institute at Stanford and a NIC Associate. The purpose of the conference was to review and assess the trajectories of African states toward, or away, from increased institutionalization of democratic processes and practices. The conference was designed so that the review and assessment would be based on interactions among a diverse set of players-including African researchers and practitioners of democracy, ranking US academic experts on political change in Africa, US democracy promotion professionals, and US Government analysts and diplomats. The conference was unprecedented for its combination of diversity of expertise and depth of investigation into the causal factors and constraints affecting democratization and democratic backsliding in Sub Saharan Africa. With about 50 participants and 15 African countries represented, the conference deliberations occurred for two days, at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Center, in Accra."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-02
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Mapping the Future of the Middle East
"This paper summarizes a one-day conference of Middle East and functional specialists convened by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in May 2005 to discuss likely regional trends between now and 2020. The discussion was informed by the NIC's 2020 Project report Mapping the Global Future (December 2004). In addition to debating trends currently observable or on the horizon, participants identified additional questions deserving research and analysis in each of the following four areas: economic issues and the context of globalization, political issues, sub-regional conflicts and terrorism, and the geopolitical landscape. Among the major themes of the economic discussion were the uneven benefits of globalization in the region, the challenge of diversifying economies and building trade in the face of high oil prices and the implications of a likely collapse of prices. Political trends addressed included the growing but still weak and essentially illiberal demands for reform, the adaptability of authoritarian regimes, and the nature of US influence. Islamism in various forms-extremist, evangelical, politically accommodating-was a major focus of discussion. Participants debated the extent to which the Arab-Israeli conflict continues to motivate regional politics and suggested that terrorism might become increasingly diffuse and difficult to counter. Participants saw an increasing role for China economically, but one that will not be translated into real political influence for some time. Participants recognized India's growing significance but believed it was still far behind China in terms of influence in the region. They expected Iran as a rising regional power to present a significant challenge for the United States."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2005-05-16
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Nonstate Actors: Impact on International Relations and Implications for the United States
"The National Intelligence Council and Eurasia Group co-hosted a series of four seminars in late 2006 and early 2007 on 'The Role of Nonstate Actors in International Politics.' These sessions examined a wide range of such actors (including terrorists and international criminals), but their primary focus was on non-criminal nonstate actors: multinational corporations, NGOs (nongovernmental organizations), and philanthropic super-empowered individuals. These entities were chosen because they have international clout, but are often overlooked in geopolitical analysis as they do not pose explicit security threats to the United States."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-03
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Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 [Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate]
"The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has requested that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports containing the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of non-missile threat options. This paper is an unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that is the fourth annual report. The NIE describes new missile developments and our projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or allies through 2015; updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles. We examine future ballistic missile capabilities of several countries that have ballistic missiles and ballistic missile development programs. Each country section includes a discussion of theater range systems and current and projected long-range systems. Our assessments of future missile developments are inexact and subjective because they are based on often fragmentary information. Many countries surround their ballistic missile programs with extensive secrecy and compartmentalization, and some employ deception. Although such key milestones as flight-testing are difficult to hide, we may miss others. To address these uncertainties, we assess both the earliest date that countries could test various missiles, based largely on engineering judgments made by experts inside and outside the Intelligence Community, on the technical capabilities and resources of the countries in question, and, in many cases, on continuing foreign assistance; and when countries would be likely to test such missiles, factoring into the above assessments potential delays caused by technical, political, or economic hurdles. We judge that countries are much less likely to test as early as the hypothetical 'could' dates than they are by our projected 'likely' dates."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [December 2004]
Congress directed the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress further asked that each report include a discussion of the following: 1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces; 2)The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities; 3)The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities; 4)The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This report is the fourth responding to this Congressional request. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy (formerly the Ministry of Atomic Energy), and other Russian institutes. It updates the February 2002 report to Congress.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2004-12
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Threat to U.S. National Security Posed by Transnational Organized Crime [infographic]
This infographic provides a world map that indicates where certain types of transnational organized crime (TOC) occur and what the regional impact of those crimes are. It also describes the impact of TOC on the United States. "Transnational organized crime has expanded dramatically in size, scope, and influence. Transnational organized criminals are threatening US interests by: [1] Co-opting some governments and weakening governance in others. [2] Forging alliances with government elements including security services and big business figures. [3] Undermining competition in strategic markets. [4] Providing funding and logistical support for terrorist/insurgent activities. [5] Stealing intellectual property. [6] Expanding narcotrafficking and engaging in arms smuggling and human trafficking. [7] Using cyber technologies to perpetrate sophisticated frauds. [8] Using facilitators who operate in the licit and illicit worlds and provide services to criminals and terrorists alike."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2011?
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Disruptive Civil Technologies: Six Technologies With Potential Impacts on US Interests Out to 2025
According to this report, "Six civil technologies offer the potential to enhance or degrade US power over the next fifteen years according to National Intelligence Council (NIC) sponsored contractor research. These include biogerontechnology, energy storage technology, biofuels and bio-based chemical technology, clean coal technology, service robotic technology, and information technology devoted to increased connectivity of people and things."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-04
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Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project
"Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project is the third unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next decade and a half to influence world events. Mindful that there are many possible 'futures,' our report offers a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss[..] Mapping the Global Future picks up where Global Trends 2015 left off but differs from our earlier efforts in three principal respects: We have consulted experts from around the world in a series of regional conferences to offer a truly global perspective. We organized conferences on five continents to solicit the views of foreign experts on the prospects for their regions over the next 15 years. We have relied more on scenarios to try to capture how key trends might play out. Our earlier efforts focused on key trends that would impact regions and key countries of interest. The trends we highlight in this paper provide a point of departure for developing imaginative global scenarios that represent several plausible alternative futures. We have developed an interactive Web site to facilitate an ongoing global dialogue. The Web site also contains links to a wealth of data of interest to scholars and the general public." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2004-12
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Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan: Policies on Regional Issues and Support for US Goals in the Middle East
"The National Intelligence Officer for the Near East convened Middle East scholars and specialists on 6 June for a conference, 'Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan: Policies on Regional Issues and Support for US Goals in the Middle East.'" Topics discussed include the emerging style of regional diplomacy as a type of Arab multilateralism, Egypt's loss of status as a regional leader and Saudi Arabia's corresponding rise, the three countries' feelings about the Arab-Israeli conflict and the extent to which they will support negotiations, concern about Iranian aggression, relations with the Iraq government, the current status of the relationship of each country with the United States, and the potential for leadership change in Egypt.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-12
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Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled, The Implications of Global Climate Change in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States, held on July 21, 2009 brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Southeast Asia from a social, political, and economic perspective. The workshop focused on Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Burma. The panelists concluded that Southeast Asia faces a greater threat from existing manmade environmental challenges than from climate change to 2030."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2010-01
