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Foreign Missile Developements and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015: Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate
"The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence requested that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports containing the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of nonmissile threat options. This paper is an unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that is the fourth annual report. The NIE describes new missile developments and our projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or allies through 2015; updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [February 2002]
Congress directed the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress further asked that each report include a discussion of the following: 1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces; 2)The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities; 3)The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities; 4)The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This annual report is the third responding to this Congressional request. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Atomic Energy, and other Russian institutes. It updates the September 2000 report to Congress.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2002-02
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World After Iraq: Robert L. Hutchings, Chairman, National Intelligence Council to the Princeton University Washington Seminar, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC, April 8, 2003
This speech summarizes findings from the National Intelligence Council's conference devoted to the world after Iraq. The summarization remarks are strictly from the viewpoint of Robert L. Hutchings, as some of the findings and discussions remain classified. Just after the terrorist attacks September 11, 2001, the NIC undertook a similar stocktaking and forecast. Most of the conclusions in the published report hold up pretty well. What that report aptly termed a "clash of civilizations within Muslim countries" has been manifest in both anti-American violence and new pressures within moderate Arab regimes. The report noted laconically that "consensus among the United States and its international allies about the best means to deter asymmetric threats from nontraditional adversaries is not likely to be achieved soon" - another judgment that has proved all too accurate. Perhaps the most important judgment concerned the potentially historic shift in Russian foreign policy toward strategic alignment with the United States. This assessment, together with the forecast of a domestically preoccupied, less confrontational China, hinted at but did not explicitly forecast a realignment of the international system. Mr. Hutchings continues to discuss the realignment possibilities, including the pattern of Franco-German-Russian collaboration seen over Iraq, Russia's orientation which is still in flux, and China's evenhandedness through the whole situation. Much will depend on U.S. actions after hostilities in Iraq. Mr. Hutchings goes on to discuss some critical issues to be faced in the future.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2003-04-08
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Afghanistan and Regional Geopolitical Dynamics after 11 September: Conference Proceedings, April 18-19, 2002
In April 2002, the National Intelligence Council sponsored a conference that examined the impact of events in Afghanistan since 11 September on a variety of regional actors, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, India, Europe, Pakistan, and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The conference brought together government and outside experts and consisted of four workshops with presentations from ten academic and regional experts, followed by lengthy discussion sessions. The purpose of the conference was not to arrive at a consensus but to deepen understanding of the complex geopolitical dynamics at work in the region. During the panel discussions no attempt was made to ascertain the general view of the panel or audience. Many of the points highlighted in these summaries of the panel discussions were noted because they were thought-provoking or outside conventional wisdom. They illustrate the richness of the discussion, but they do not necessarily reflect accepted or prevailing views at the conference.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2002-08
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Role of Intelligence Services in a Globalized World: Remarks by John C. Gannon, Chairman, National Intelligence Council at the Conference Sponsored by Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Berlin, Germany, May 21, 2001
This article reveals observations about the future drawn from the findings of a strategic study the NIC published recently called Global Trends 2015. Global Trends 2015 is not just a product. More importantly, it reflects a process of engagement with outside sources of information and expertise that exemplifies how our intelligence community must behave in the future. It has been discussed with several USG agencies, including FBI, military services, diplomats at State Department, as well as with numerous experts in academia and with foreign governments. To deal with this future, these services will require a revolution in five areas: First in communication with senior policymakers who must understand and support their mission and who must benefit directly from the intelligence they provide; second, in collaboration with new partners within governments, with law enforcement, and with liaison abroad; third, in an approach to advanced technology, which will be critical to the world's success; fourth, in the recruitment and development of the skills needed to achieve a specific mission; and, fifth, in the commitment to leverage outside expertise, which will require unprecedented transparency in much of the way this country does business.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-05
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Impact of the War on Terror on Certain Aspects of US Policy in the Middle East: A Medium-Term Assessment, Prepared for the National Intelligence Council by Paul Jabber, December 27, 2001
The purpose of this analysis is to assess the likely impact that the US campaign against global terrorism launched in the wake of the attacks of September 11th, 2001, will have on key American interests in the Middle East over the medium term (next 12 months). The main focus will be on the expected perceptions and reaction to US policy of selected important Middle East actors, regime stability and changing regional alignments. To render the analysis relevant to policy-making and policy assessment, the approach here will be parsimonious, not comprehensive. The United States presently maintains an extensive and continually growing presence in the Middle East, with diplomatic, military, commercial and cultural dimensions. The region contains long-identified vital US national interests, and security commitments toward several key states. This analysis is structured around two core questions: 1. How will the region absorb and react to the USG's war on terrorism in its regional manifestations, given that by necessity the Middle East will turn out to be the main theater of operations? 2. Which US policy choices are more likely to be effective in limiting the threat of terrorist strikes against the homeland in particular and other countries generally?
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12-27
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Growing Global Migration and Its Implications for The United States
Migration will move higher on the policy agendas of many countries-- including the United States--as new waves of legal and illegal migrants, asylum-seekers, and refugees flee poverty, conflict, and persecution in their native lands. The latest US census underscored this trend in the United States, and it is undoubtedly taking place elsewhere, as well. Rising migration will provide challenges and opportunities to both sending and receiving countries. Sending countries will benefit from emigrant remittances, for example, but they will lose some of their more industrious people, while returning immigrants can play both constructive and disruptive political roles. In the richer receiving countries, migration will alleviate demographic and labor force shortfalls, but it also will add to social and cultural tensions. This National Intelligence Estimate focuses on: The causes and likely social, economic, political, and security consequences of global migration of all types on key sending and receiving regions and countries, the willingness and ability of governments to control migration, the scale of direct migration pressures on the United States, and the impact of other countries' migration policies on such pressures and the extent to which some countries may try to use migration as leverage in bilateral relations.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-03
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Letter from Dennis C. Blair: Director of National Intelligence [January 7, 2010]
This message from Dennis C. Blair, Director of National Intelligence, outlines the U.S.'s failure in recognizing signals that Mr. Abdulmutallab was planning a terrorist act. Mr. Blair then proceeds to outline ways in which U.S. security will be enhanced, "1) Assigning clear lines of responsibility for investigating all leads on high-priority threats, so they are pursued more aggressively; 2) Distributing intelligence reports more quickly and widely, especially those suggesting specific threats against the U.S., 3) Applying more rigorous standards to analytical tradecraft to improve intelligence integration and action; and 4) Enhancing the criteria for adding individuals to the terrorist watchlist and 'no fly' watchlist."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2010-01-07
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National Intelligence Council (NIC) [website]
"The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC's center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of Intelligence Community collaboration and outreach. The NIC's National Intelligence Officers - drawn from government, academia, and the private sector-are the Intelligence Community's senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
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Transformations in Global Defense Markets and Industries: Implications for the Future of Warfare
"For the last two years, strategic research has been underway on the recent transformations in global defense markets and defense industries. The research has focused on the development of a better understanding of the potential implications of change for the future of warfare. Warfare in this context is taken broadly. It includes the preparation for and conduct of combat operations, as well as the basic characteristics of war as defined by grand strategy, doctrine, intelligence capabilities and expectations, and logistics writ large (armaments, mobilization, and sustainment). The time frame of interest is beyond the range of short-term planning, from 10-30 years or more into the future. The research emphasized the supply side of the global armaments process more than the demand side. The research has included: the analysis of data on defense industries and markets; the analysis of the historical record for previous periods of fundamental military-technical change; the analysis of national literature to better understand country perspectives; mini-seminars and doctrinal investigations to explore potential future warfare aspects; and the sponsorship of conferences drawing together experts from government, academia, non-profits, and industry to discuss specific aspects of change."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Battilega, John A.; Greenwalt, Randall; Jackson, Bruce
2000
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Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment Experts
"The international system in 2015 will be shaped by seven global drivers and related trends: population; natural resources and the environment; science and technology; the global economy and globalization; national and international governance; the nature of conflict; and the role of the United States. These trends will influence the capacities, priorities, and behavior of states and societies and thus substantially define the international security environment. The National Intelligence Council (NIC), a small center of strategic thinking in the US Intelligence Community, launched Global Trends 2015 to stimulate US policymakers to think "beyond their inboxes." This work expands the effort of Global Trends 2010, published in 1997. Global Trends 2015 takes a look at the world over the next 15 years from the perspective of the national security policymaker. This is not a traditional intelligence assessment, depending on classified sources and methods. Rather, it reflects an Intelligence Community fully engaged with outside experts in a constructive dialogue about the future. The report identifies global "drivers" and estimates their impact on the world over the next 15 years--demography and natural resources, technology, globalization and governance, likely conflicts and prospects for international cooperation, and the role of the United States. The judgments flow from our best efforts to produce a comprehensive picture of the world in 2015. Analysis will help senior leaders better cope with, for example, the uncertainties involved with the decline of Russia, the emergence of China, or the political, economic and societal dynamics in the Middle East."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2000-12
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National Intelligence Estimate: The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland
"National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) are the Intelligence Community's (IC) most authoritative written judgments on national security issues and designed to help US civilian and military leaders develop policies to protect US national security interests. NIEs usually provide information on the current state of play but are primarily 'estimative'-that is, they make judgments about the likely course of future events and identify the implications for US policy [...] We judge the US Homeland will face a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years. The main threat comes from Islamic terrorist groups and cells, especially al- Qa'ida, driven by their undiminished intent to attack the Homeland and a continued effort by these terrorist groups to adapt and improve their capabilities. We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa'ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11." The report also included issues such as possible waning international cooperation in fighting terrorism, the current heightened threat environment in the U.S., al-Qad' ida's efforts to acquire and use chemical, biological, or nuclear material in potential attacks, and the ability of the U.S. to detect broader and more diverse terrorist plotting.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2007-07
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [2006]
"Congress has directed the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress has requested that each report include a discussion of the following: (1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces. (2) The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities. (3) The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities. (4) The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This report is the fifth responding to this Congressional request, and covers 2005 and 2006. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy (formerly the Ministry of Atomic Energy), and other Russian institutes. It updates the February 2005 report to Congress that covered 2004."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2006-04
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Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on selected countries in Central America and the Caribbean. It draws on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, National Communications to the United Nations Framework (UNFCCC) on Climate Change, statistical data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impacts as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to impact of climate change. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impacts on Central America and the Caribbean and other countries/regions."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Joint Global Change Research Institute; Battelle Memorial Institute. Pacific Northwest Division
2009-12
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Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report
"This research identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands, drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature. It includes such impacts as sea-level rise, water supply and demand, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. The research addresses the extent to which Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The timeframe of this analysis extends through 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse timeframes and extend through the 21st century. The research also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impacts on Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands and other countries/regions of interest."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Joint Global Change Research Institute; Battelle Memorial Institute. Pacific Northwest Division; Scitor Corporation
2009-08
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North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030 (Selected Countries): A Commissioned Research Report
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the effects of climate change on selected countries in North Africa, drawing on the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, National Communications to the United Nations Framework (UNFCCC) on Climate Change, and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impacts as sea-level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which the countries in the region are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC's [Intelligence Community's] understanding of potential impacts on North Africa and other countries/regions."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2009-08
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Cyber Threat Trends and US Network Security, Statement for the Record to the Joint Economic Committee
This statement outlines predictions and current trends in cyber and network security.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-06-21
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Mapping the Future of the Middle East
"This paper summarizes a one-day conference of Middle East and functional specialists convened by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in May 2005 to discuss likely regional trends between now and 2020. The discussion was informed by the NIC's 2020 Project report Mapping the Global Future (December 2004). In addition to debating trends currently observable or on the horizon, participants identified additional questions deserving research and analysis in each of the following four areas: economic issues and the context of globalization, political issues, sub-regional conflicts and terrorism, and the geopolitical landscape. Among the major themes of the economic discussion were the uneven benefits of globalization in the region, the challenge of diversifying economies and building trade in the face of high oil prices and the implications of a likely collapse of prices. Political trends addressed included the growing but still weak and essentially illiberal demands for reform, the adaptability of authoritarian regimes, and the nature of US influence. Islamism in various forms-extremist, evangelical, politically accommodating-was a major focus of discussion. Participants debated the extent to which the Arab-Israeli conflict continues to motivate regional politics and suggested that terrorism might become increasingly diffuse and difficult to counter. Participants saw an increasing role for China economically, but one that will not be translated into real political influence for some time. Participants recognized India's growing significance but believed it was still far behind China in terms of influence in the region. They expected Iran as a rising regional power to present a significant challenge for the United States."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2005-05-16
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Nonstate Actors: Impact on International Relations and Implications for the United States
"The National Intelligence Council and Eurasia Group co-hosted a series of four seminars in late 2006 and early 2007 on 'The Role of Nonstate Actors in International Politics.' These sessions examined a wide range of such actors (including terrorists and international criminals), but their primary focus was on non-criminal nonstate actors: multinational corporations, NGOs (nongovernmental organizations), and philanthropic super-empowered individuals. These entities were chosen because they have international clout, but are often overlooked in geopolitical analysis as they do not pose explicit security threats to the United States."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2008-03
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Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities
"This National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) assesses the status of Iran's nuclear program, and the program's outlook over the next 10 years. This time frame is more appropriate for estimating capabilities than intentions and foreign reactions, which are more difficult to estimate over a decade. In presenting the Intelligence Community's assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the NIE thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors we judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran. This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment. This Estimate does assume that the strategic goals and basic structure of Iran's senior leadership and government will remain similar to those that have endured since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. We acknowledge the potential for these to change during the time frame of the Estimate, but are unable to confidently predict such changes or their implications. This Estimate does not assess how Iran may conduct future negotiations with the West on the nuclear issue."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2007-11
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Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 [Unclassified Summary of a National Intelligence Estimate]
"The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence has requested that the Intelligence Community (IC) produce annual reports containing the latest intelligence on ballistic missile developments and threats and a discussion of non-missile threat options. This paper is an unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that is the fourth annual report. The NIE describes new missile developments and our projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, US interests overseas, and military forces or allies through 2015; updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles. We examine future ballistic missile capabilities of several countries that have ballistic missiles and ballistic missile development programs. Each country section includes a discussion of theater range systems and current and projected long-range systems. Our assessments of future missile developments are inexact and subjective because they are based on often fragmentary information. Many countries surround their ballistic missile programs with extensive secrecy and compartmentalization, and some employ deception. Although such key milestones as flight-testing are difficult to hide, we may miss others. To address these uncertainties, we assess both the earliest date that countries could test various missiles, based largely on engineering judgments made by experts inside and outside the Intelligence Community, on the technical capabilities and resources of the countries in question, and, in many cases, on continuing foreign assistance; and when countries would be likely to test such missiles, factoring into the above assessments potential delays caused by technical, political, or economic hurdles. We judge that countries are much less likely to test as early as the hypothetical 'could' dates than they are by our projected 'likely' dates."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2001-12
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Annual Report to Congress on the Safety and Security of Russian Nuclear Facilities and Military Forces [December 2004]
Congress directed the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) to submit to the Congressional leadership and intelligence committees an annual, unclassified report assessing the safety and security of the nuclear facilities and military forces in Russia. Congress further asked that each report include a discussion of the following: 1) The ability of the Russian Government to maintain its nuclear military forces; 2)The security arrangements at Russia's civilian and military nuclear facilities; 3)The reliability of controls and safety systems at Russia's civilian nuclear facilities; 4)The reliability of command and control systems and procedures of the nuclear military forces in Russia. This report is the fourth responding to this Congressional request. The report addresses facilities and forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy (formerly the Ministry of Atomic Energy), and other Russian institutes. It updates the February 2002 report to Congress.
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2004-12
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Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications, Conference Report
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled The Implications of Global Climate Change in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America, held on 31 August 2009, brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America from a social, political, and economic perspective." Conclusions by the panelists include: "climate change may increase prospects for conflict in the region"; "strong civil society organizations play an important role in moderating the effects of climate change as they provide a means of communication between local people and state actors"; "state centralization and control correlate well with emergency preparedness"; "all states in the region show some capacity to recover from damage caused by extreme weather events"; "most states in the region lack the institutional mechanisms to effectively address the long-term threats posed by climate change"; and "the United States will probably face ever-increasing pressure to provide humanitarian assistance to neighbors to avoid large numbers of refugees and to reduce the risk of local conflicts that could require US military intervention."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
2010-01
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Southeast Asia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled, The Implications of Global Climate Change in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States, held on July 21, 2009 brought together a panel of regional experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Southeast Asia from a social, political, and economic perspective. The workshop focused on Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, and Burma. The panelists concluded that Southeast Asia faces a greater threat from existing manmade environmental challenges than from climate change to 2030."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2010-01
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China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled Implications of Global Climate Change in China on 3 April 2009 brought together a panel of experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on China from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists judged that China has a robust capacity to handle the large-scale disruptions that probably will be caused by climate change and that China's trajectory of continued growth is likely to further increase its resilience through 2030. Beyond 2030 the ability for the state to respond is more problematic."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2009-06
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North Africa: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled, The Implications of Global Climate Change in North Africa, held on 20 August, 2009, brought together a panel of experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on North Africa from a social, political, and economic perspective. The workshop focused on Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. The panelists concluded that systemic state failures attributable solely to climate change to 2030 are not likely. However, climatic stress coupled with socioeconomic crises and ineffective state responses could generate localized social or governmental collapses and humanitarian crises. The effects of climate change in North Africa will exacerbate the region's existing challenges of insufficient water and food resources, low economic growth, inadequate urban infrastructure, and weak sociopolitical systems."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2009-12
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Russia: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council-sponsored workshop entitled 'The Implications of Global Climate Change in Russia', held on May 18, 2009, brought together a panel of Russia experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on Russia from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists concluded that Russia is reaching a point where serious deterioration of its physical and human capital is a major obstacle to sustainable economic growth and Russia's capacity to adapt and protect its people will be tested out to 2030. Climate change will add additional stress to energy and transportation infrastructure burdens. However, given Russia's high overall state capacity and the mixed or comparatively tolerable nature of most anticipated climate change impacts over the next twenty years, climate change is unlikely to lead to a general failure of the Russian state."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2009-09
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India: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Geopolitical Implications
"The National Intelligence Council sponsored workshop entitled 'Implications of Global Climate Change in India' on March 27, 2009, brought together a panel of India experts to consider the probable effects of climate change on India from a social, political, and economic perspective. The panelists judged the practical effects of climate change on India were uncertain, but they concluded India will most likely be able to manage them out to 2030."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Scitor Corporation; CENTRA Technology, Inc.
2009-05
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India: Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on India, drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impact as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which regions within India are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. The research does not draw inferences about the potential for internal or interstate conflict arising out of changes, e.g., in water supply or in likely migration from Bangladesh; such analyses will be conducted in the subsequent efforts described above. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impact on India and other countries/regions."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Joint Global Change Research Institute; Battelle Memorial Institute. Pacific Northwest Division
2009-04
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Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report
"This assessment identifies and summarizes the latest peer-reviewed research related to the impact of climate change on Russia, drawing on both the literature summarized in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and on other peer-reviewed research literature and relevant reporting. It includes such impact as sea level rise, water availability, agricultural shifts, ecological disruptions and species extinctions, infrastructure at risk from extreme weather events (severity and frequency), and disease patterns. This paper addresses the extent to which regions within Russia are vulnerable to climate change impact. The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in this report have diverse time frames. This assessment also identifies (Annex B) deficiencies in climate change data that would enhance the IC [Intelligence Community] understanding of potential impact on Russia and other countries/regions."
National Intelligence Council (U.S.)
Joint Global Change Research Institute; Battelle Memorial Institute. Pacific Northwest Division
2009-04
