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Regional Conflicts with Strategic Consequences

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"During the Cold War, strategic capabilities were synonymous with nuclear capabilities, and US strategic planning focused on nuclear deterrence and response against a single adversary. Today, more potential enemies are developing asymmetric capabilities to inhibit or prevent U.S. military intervention in regional conflicts-in short, to wage strategic warfare by implicitly or explicitly threatening high-value political, military, or economic targets with weapons of mass destruction and disruption. U.S. security over the next several decades will depend increasingly on the ability to deter and respond effectively to strategic regional conflicts with significant escalation potential. The Department of Defense faces the task of ensuring that a comprehensive set of responses is developed for the National Command Authorities and is incorporated into planning before a conflict begins. To meet this challenge, the defense establishment should analyze requirements for deterring and combating strategic warfare in regional conflicts, identify shortcomings in plans and capabilities, and develop solutions. Providing a broad mix of military options could require changes in operational concepts, contingency planning, training, and resource allocation. The effort will require significant input from all the relevant commands and force providers, as well as the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Joint Staff, services, and other agencies."

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Bunn, M. Elaine; Mosher, David E.; Sokolsky, Richard

2001-07
U.S. Strategic Posture Review: Issues for the New Administration

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"In the past, U.S. decisionmakers have addressed strategic nuclear force and national missile defense issues in an incremental and uncoordinated manner. Too often, force structure decisions have been driven by near-term programmatic, budgetary, arms control, and political pressures rather than by long-term strategy and objectives. The forthcoming Strategic Posture Review (SPR) needs to fundamentally reassess the purposes of nuclear weapons, missile defenses, and the requirements of deterrence and stability in the new security environment. The Bush administration should develop a comprehensive conceptual framework to decide on the size, composition, and posture of strategic offensive and defensive forces. Such a framework should integrate new assessments of deterrence and stability over the next 10-20 years, in light of the much more diverse threats facing the United States. It will not be easy to come up with solutions that balance competing and often contradictory objectives. Improving U.S. capabilities to deal with one set of strategic concerns may complicate efforts to address others. SPR should include a reassessment of U.S. strategic force levels and targeting requirements; consideration of different hedges and reconstitution options against greater-than-expected threats, such as maintaining production capabilities or making unilateral strategic force reductions outside a formal treaty framework; and development of a broad calculus to assess the impact of national missile defense and other strategic developments on deterrence and stability."

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Bunn, M. Elaine; Sokolsky, Richard

2001-02
Nuclear Smuggling: How Serious a Threat?

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Cases of illicit transactions in nuclear materials have occurred over the last 20 years virtually throughout the world, to include the United States. Of the 450 reported attempts of illegal trafficking recorded by the Department of Energy through 1994, most proved to be nothing more than profit-motivated scams involving bogus material, perpetrated by opportunists. The unprecedented leakage of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union (FSU) in 1994 signaled a clear shift in the nature and significance of the nuclear smuggling problem. While recognizing that the reporting was incomplete and of mixed reliability, there were increases observed in the numbers of attempted transactions including the number of participants and in the types and quantities of materials offered for sale. The apparent pause in the leakage of nuclear materials in 1995 is welcome, but does not provide much comfort because conditions in the FSU conducive to nuclear smuggling remain relatively unchanged and substantial leakage (still unrecovered) may have already occurred.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Ford, James L.

1996-01
Iraq's Enduring Proliferation Threat

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UN inspections, and revelations triggered by the defection in summer of 1995 of Iraq's chief of NBC programs, Hussein Kamel, have confirmed what many suspected: Iraq's NBC programs went well beyond what had been assessed prior to DESERT STORM or at the initiation of post-war sanctions, or admitted by Iraq in declarations to the UN. Iraq had a crash program to make its first nuclear warhead for missile delivery by April 1991. Its Biological Weapons (BW) program produced enough anthrax and botulinum toxin to kill the world's entire population. Before DESERT STORM, Iraq filled about 200 missile warheads and aerial bombs with BW agents and deployed them to missile bases and air fields. It had even more capability for Chemical Weapons (CW) employment. Documents obtained by the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) indicate that Iraq contemplated strategic offensive use of CW (and probably BW) through surprise attack.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Sullivan, Peter

1996-11
South China Sea: Future Source of Prosperity or Conflict in South East Asia?

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The South China Sea, an area of 648,000 square nautical miles between the coast of Asia and the islands of Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, is dotted with hundreds of islets, reefs, rocks and shoals, which are the subject of conflicting territorial claims. The presumed existence of large oil and gas deposits in these waters and the strategic importance of shipping lanes between East Asia and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe have increased the risk of confrontations over disputed areas of the South China Sea and the urgency of averting these possible confrontations through a peaceful settlement

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Hull, Richard E.

1996-02
Homeland Security: The New Role for Defense

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"Evolving national strategy for homeland security requires that DOD consider the employment of military forces in ways previously considered outside the scope of operations. As President George W. Bush has said, 'To win this war, we have to think differently.' Homeland security should not be viewed as exclusively or even primarily a military task. Securing the 'domestic battlespace'-- a highly complex environment--requires Federal departments and agencies, state and local governments, the private sector, and individual citizens to perform many strategic, operational, and tactical level tasks in an integrated fashion. These actions must be synchronized with others that are being taken on the international front to prosecute the war against global terrorism. The challenges and demands associated with this undertaking are immense. Success will depend largely upon the Nation's ability to achieve unity of effort at all levels of government."

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Tomisek, Steven J.

2002-02
Biological Warfare: A Nation at Risk--A Time to Act

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There is a regrettable tendency to think about defense against biological warfare either as unnecessary or as "too hard." Unfortunately, the danger of biological warfare did not dissipate with the dismantling of our own offensive program in 1969, the signing of the Biological Weapons Convention in 1972, the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the threat of nuclear retaliation against Saddam in 1991. Only by planning and preparing will we be able to diminish the likelihood that biological weapons will be used, and reduce the risks if they are. Fortunately, substantial improvements can be made in our biological defensive capabilities at relatively small levels of investment

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Danzig, Richard

1996-01
Defining Civil Defense in the Information Age

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We have entered an era of immense global change and we must recognize that protection of the public during domestic emergencies has taken on new meanings with new consequences. A new process needs to be developed that defines the specific responsibilities of federal and state governments for technological disasters. The DOD has taken the initiative and has established new educational and training programs focused on Information Warfare and Strategy, Command and Control Warfare, and Information Operations. But solutions to the problem are larger than the DOD and other organizations must be engaged. Issues involving information technology, national security, and civil defense cross many if not all of the traditional governmental boundaries thus ultimately requiring a truly holistic solution.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Rudolph, Earle L. , Jr.; Round, W. Oscar

1995-09
Modern U.S. Civil - Military Relations: Wielding the Terrible Swift Sword

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A December 1995 article in the Washington Times examined the "huge say" U.S. military leaders had had in crafting the provisions of the Dayton agreement. It quoted several anonymous administration officials as believing that the agreement "was carefully crafted to reflect demands from the military . . . . Rather than be ignored.., the military, as a price for its support, has basically gotten anything it wanted." The article also speculated that the administration had listened so intently to its military leaders for reasons that were "part political cover, part lessons learned from the Somalia debacle and Haiti, part reflection of the mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina." This essay will argue that the demands placed by military officers on the provisions of the Dayton agreement reflect a steady increase in the influence of military officers in crafting defense policy, rather than the recognition of any lessons learned in Somalia or Haiti. Furthermore, this increased authority of the military--and the resultant deterioration in civil-military relations--is largely the result of the lessons drawn by the military from the American experience in Vietnam.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Johnson, David E.

1997-07
Regional Deterrence Strategies for New Proliferation Threats

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The deterrence of armed aggression against the United States, its vital national interests, or its allies has moved beyond the requirements of conventional force deterrence. The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons requires a new strategy to ensure effective deterrence against their use by regional states that could not win in a conventional conflict with the United States. Because proliferation has expanded to a number of regional actors, a single strategy is unlikely to be sufficient in deterring states with varied motivations, and social, economic, religious, cultural, and political backgrounds. The Unified Commands--principally the Pacific, Central and European Commands--provide a ready-made framework in which general U.S. deterrence strategies can be tailored to each proliferant state. While the Unified Com-mands would shape the individual deterrence strategies, the national command authority (NCA) would retain control of key decisions. Guidelines for NBC regional deterrence should include developing credible counterproliferation postures, profiling potential adversaries, tailoring our military capabilities to specific threats, integrating NBC preparedness into exercises and warplans, and actively pursuing coalitions designed to deter regional proliferators from threatening to use or using NBC weapons.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Kahan, Jerome H.

1996-04
Controlling Threats to Nuclear Security: A Holistic Model

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The collapse of the Soviet Union, although providing a host of welcome opportunities for people of that nation, also exacerbated a number of transnational concerns just as serious as those that emanated from the bipolar hostility of the previous 50 years. Among these challenges is the marked increase in the theft of and illegal trafficking in nuclear materials, often referred to as nuclear smuggling. Prior to the early 1990s, nuclear smuggling generally involved small quantities of bogus materials or, at most, nuclear-associated materials that posed no serious danger to security. Recently, however, several disturbing incidents involving kilogram quantities of sensitive nuclear materials suitable for constructing bombs have occurred. No one doubts that hostile groups could conceivably bring weapons-usable nuclear material into the United States. Moreover, nuclear smuggling represents a possible shortcut for states such as Iran seeking plutonium or highly enriched uranium for their weapons program. The consequences of such states succeeding would be profound. The U.S. Government takes the threat of nuclear smuggling seriously. Congress has provided funds and the Executive Branch has devised numerous successful programs targeted to reduce this danger at its source--but much remains to be done. This book will contribute to filling that gap by providing a new tool, the nuclear smuggling pathway model, for addressing the nuclear smuggling phenomenon in a holistic way. This model is based on a general systems model and designed specifically as an analytical tool to assist national security personnel at all levels to understand, analyze, and prevent instances of illicit trafficking in nuclear materials. By offering a comprehensive approach usable by many different national and international agencies, the model may help counter a growing national security.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Ford, James L.; Schuller, Richard

1997-06
Terrorism's Financial Lifeline: Can It be Severed?

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The attacks of September 11 and the global campaign against terrorism have put the spotlight on rogue capital, a growing problem for law enforcement and the financial sector. Using traditional and sophisticated techniques, terrorist and criminal groups have extended their reach beyond states to build multinational empires with pervasive, well-funded subsidiaries. Weak states, lax banking regulations, persistent corruption, and shadow financial systems compound the problem. Terrorists and criminals generate, manipulate, and launder funds in different ways and for different ends, but the links between them are growing stronger. As direct state sponsorship declines, terrorists have shifted increasingly toward illicit moneymaking. The question is how best to expose this money lifeline, render it vulnerable, and ultimately sever it. America has led the global effort to cut off the sources of money to these groups. It has worked through the Group of 8 and bilateral partners to strengthen initiatives against money laundering and manipulation. Yet compliance with such measures alone will not guarantee success. Economic assistance is needed to ease the domestic impact associated with the loss of illicit sources of foreign exchange in weak states. Helping such states to fight this problem is essential. It will entail strengthening justice systems and making bureaucracies more transparent to offset the increasing resort to corruption by those determined to circumvent stricter regulations.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Thachuk, Kimberley L., 1962-

2002-05
U.S. Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century: A Fresh Look at National Strategy and Requirements: Final Report

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The participants in this report examined the broader trends in the international environment and considered how the United States could both shape and respond to them. A forward-looking paradigm for the nuclear dimension of U.S. security policy emerged that builds on the lessons of the past while addressing the opportunities and challenges of the future. The core of this paradigm is that nuclear weapons will continue indefinitely to play an indispensable role as a hedge against uncertainties, to deter potential aggressors who are both more diverse and less predictable than in the past, and to allow the United States to construct a more stable security environment. Thus, the United States needs a credible nuclear deterrent posture, broadly defined to include forces-in-being; capabilities for weapon system design and production; and the ability to assure the safety and reliable performance of the nuclear stockpile- a fundamental challenge in the absence of underground testing. Because this posture must be both adaptable and responsive to new threats, the national deterrent infrastructure must be treated as a strategic resource. The posture must also integrate the growing role of defenses in our deterrence calculations. All of this requires trained and motivated people, as well as new ways of thinking and considerable agility and foresightedness on the part of U.S. leaders. The more than forty study participants and government observers included present and former policymakers, military officers, scientists, and academics. The Project Report reflects their research, analysis, and intensive discussions that took place during the winter and spring of 1998. This Executive Report contains the key judgments of the study. The individual subgroup papers included in the Project Report -- policy, operations, infrastructure, and stockpile -- provided the foundation for these judgments.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

1998-07
Agricultural Bioterrorism: A Federal Strategy to Meet the Threat

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Fears of anthrax, smallpox, and plague pervade the American consciousness, fueled by reports that some of the plane hijackers involved in the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks had specific interest in crop duster aircraft that could be used to disseminate aerosols of pathogens. Because of this, the Nation is stepping up its defenses against bio-terrorism. Nevertheless, little attention has been given to agricultural bio-warfare and bio-terrorism or to the roles and responsibilities of the public and private sectors in deterring and responding to potential attacks. This point is exemplified in a General Accounting Office (GAO) report on combating terrorism released 9 days after the attacks of September 11. The report did not address threats to American agriculture, nor did it involve participation by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This paper examines the threat of agricultural bio-terrorism and outlines a plan to counter this threat.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Parker, Henry S.

2002-03
Big Three: Our Greatest Security Risks and How to Address Them

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"Thirty years from now, if our successors were to deem our stewardship of American national security at the end of the 20th century as poor, why would that be so? Suppose through a time warp our computers receive the first paragraph of a review written in 2029, then imagine that preview were critical of our national security policies and investments at the end of the 20th century. Perhaps it said we had failed to focus adequately on what proved to be our most important national security problems. What would the missing text most likely report as our failures? There are many candidates for answers to this question, all should be subject to debate. This essay outlines the answers by describing three risks that should be of greater concern to us over the next decades: Renewed competition with a major military adversary; Traumatic attacks, particularly from nonexplosive warfare (NEW) weapons; and, Erosion of support." This book reviews each of these risks and the immediate actions that hold promise of reducing our vulnerability.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Danzig, Richard

1999
DoD and Consequence Management: Mitigating the Effects of Chemical and Biological Attack

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The threat of chemical and biological weapons attack against U.S. forces and population centers, as well as those of our allies, is real and growing. Mitigating the effects of such an attack--consequence management--is an essential part of responding to the threat. Many state and local governments have improved their capabilities to deal with this challenge. While progress is being made at the federal level, several departments and agencies, including the Department of Defense (DoD), are struggling to develop and coordinate effective responses. DoD organization, planning, and funding for consequence management fail to reflect the complexity of today's security environment, including: the potential for asymmetric warfare, the vulnerability of military facilities at home and abroad, and the indiscriminate character of chemical and biological weapons when used against military facilities near civilian population centers. Within DoD, effective consequence management is constrained by the presence of arbitrary conceptual and organizational divisions that inadequately define the response according to the nature, location, and target of the attack. The lack of an integrated DoD approach to many similar and overlapping consequence management activities involving the same resources and units contributes to poorly-defined mission requirements, organizational confusion, and inefficient resource allocation. These problems lead to unrealistic planning assumptions regarding the ability of DoD to conduct overseas operations in case of a major chemical or biological attack in the United States.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Hersman, Rebecca K. C.; Carus, W. Seth

1999-12
Strategy Essay Competition (2002)

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Reflection involves not only reading, thinking about, and discussing ideas with colleagues, but also communicating through the process of writing. Through the discipline of writing, one can examine and develop themes, concepts, and arguments in much greater detail.Writing is no easy feat--to which all who submitted papers in this year's essay competition can attest--but the rewards are substantial.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

2002
Strategy Essay Competition (2001)

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The winners of this 20th annual Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Strategy Essay Competition join an impressive line of gifted men and women who have made significant academic contributions to U.S. national security. Each year the competition challenges students attending professional military education institutions to analyze key elements of defense strategy and recommend areas in which changes or improvements are needed. As in past years, the winning essays are remarkable for their insight and wisdom. Each author provides fresh ideas and thoughtprovoking suggestions that will stimulate the ongoing debate over defense strategy and priorities during this year of the Quadrennial Defense Review.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

2001
Pending Crisis in North Africa

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"The goal of the conference was to exchange views on regional security challenges, their underlying causes, and appropriate strategies for addressing them. Differing Tunisian and American perceptions of these challenges soon emerged. The American security concern is two-tiered: the shorter-term threat is the incremental spread of radical Islam, ultimately capturing the region, creating a tide of refugees in France, Italy, and Spain. The longer-term threat is the possibility that radical- leaning regimes would acquire weapons of mass destruction and that those regimes would disrupt the Middle East peace process. Other American concerns included controlling state-directed terrorism and the possible resurgence of dormant non-Islamic radicalism by anti- Western and anti-U.S. figures, such as Qadhafi. The Tunisian delegation emphasized three concerns: (1) the inherent vulnerability of Tunisia to unwanted external political and military influences, (2) the imperative of sustaining successful economic and social reform programs, and (3) the importance of playing a low-profile, intermediary role in regional affairs. "

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Lewis, William Hubert, 1928-

1994
Egypt at the Crossroads: Domestic Stability and Regional Role

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Egypt has a seminal role as a Middle East actor and is central in U.S. strategic planning on the Middle East. Because of Egypt's influence in the Arab and Islamic worlds, it is of paramount importance that Egypt remain a force for moderation. Any dramatic change in Egypt's position could alter the regional balance of power and the existing favorable security environment. Egypt's regional role as a moderating element depends on its domestic tranquility and its economic health. As authors in this volume emphasize, the domestic and regional aspects of Egypt's policy are inextricably linked. Without a reasonably sound economy and political stability, Egypt will be unable to undertake an active regional role. The reverse is also true-an active peace process and a growing regional economy are essential for Egypt's stability at home. The combined essays tie together three essential components of the U.S.-Egyptian equation. The first part addresses domestic issues in Egypt and the prospects for Egypt's continued political stability. The second section concentrates on Egypt's regional role in the new post-Cold War environment. The third part looks at the future of the U.S.-Egyptian partnership. Authors have probed the underlying factors likely to persist well into the 21 st century, rather than dwelling on episodic changes that may dominate tomorrow's headlines. It is hoped that exploration of these fundamental aspects of Egypt and the U.S.-Egyptian relationship will provide a sense of the forces at work in the region and of the issues with which U.S. strategists will have to grapple over the next decade.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Marr, Phebe

1999
Creating Strategic Vision: Long-Range Planning for National Security

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In examining the methodologies, the concepts, and the programs now in place, members of the seminar weighed and debated planning from their own experiences as defense planners. From this sustained examination emerged four thoughtful essays by General Smith, Air Force officers Colonels Jerrold P. Allen and John H. Stewart II, and F. Douglas Whitehouse, a senior analyst of Soviet economics. These essays guide the reader to a realistic understanding of long-range planning and suggest ways to think creatively and pragmatically about the future.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Smith, Perry M.; Allen, Jerrold P.; Stewart, John H. . . .

1987-07
Strategic Challenges for the Bush Administration: Perspectives from the Institute for National Strategic Studies

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"As the Bush administration settles into office, the United States confronts an international environment marked by growing volatility and rapid change. To answer these questions, leading policy specialists in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University recently prepared a series of assessments for the Department of Defense. Together with the Institute's previously published Report of the National Defense University Quadrennial Defense Review 2001 Working Group, these assessments offer a broad menu of security policy choices. At the same time, it will have to deal with several points of friction in U.S.-China security relations, particularly the risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and address the complex political and social crises in Indonesia that threaten regional stability. In the Middle East, the collapse of the Arab-Israeli peace process and the dynamics of the oil market pose grave concerns, but the most vexing security issues in the region concern the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Iran, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). With support for sanctions evaporating, crafting a sustainable Iraq policy that eliminates its WMD and promotes regime change is a clear priority. Internal political changes in Iran will not alter Iran's foreign and security policies considerably, including its determination to acquire nuclear weapons. With Russia, the key challenge will be to develop a new strategy for dealing with a declining power whose ambitions generally exceed its capabilities. In South Asia, enduring tensions between India and Pakistan that could erupt into a nuclear war, the vulnerability of Pakistan to growing Islamic militancy, and mounting competition between India and China cloud the security environment."

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Schake, Kori N.; Yaphe, Judith Share, 1944-; Bunn, M. Elaine

2001
Middle East and Persian Gulf

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U.S. foreign, commercial, security, and defense interests have long been intertwined with the stability of the Middle East region. The collapse of the Arab-Israeli peace process and the current delicate balance in the oil market pose grave concerns, but these developments will not be the main drivers of U.S. strategy and defense policy in the region. The key security issues that will confront the next administration in this region relate to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Iran, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Dual containment as an effective and enforceable policy has run its course. U.S. foreign, commercial, security, and defense interests have long been intertwined with the stability of the Middle East region. The collapse of the Arab-Israeli peace process and the current delicate balance in the oil market pose grave concerns, but these developments will not be the main drivers of U.S. strategy and defense policy in the region. The key security issues that will confront the next administration in this region relate to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iraq, Iran, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Dual containment as an effective and enforceable policy has run its course. Political change in Iran may come smoothly or violently, but it will not alter a defense strategy based on acquiring a nuclear capability. Regardless of the means, change is unlikely to lead to major reversals in Tehran's foreign and security policies. U.S. policy in the region, including the defeat of Iraq, the liberation of Kuwait, and the successes of the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) inspectors, has achieved impressive results, but it may also be a victim of its success. Ten years after Iraq invaded and occupied Kuwait, and 20 years after the Iranian revolution that threatened to disrupt the Gulf by exporting its revolution, the Gulf states are trying to resume the balance of power as it existed more or less before August 2, 1990. This transition paper will examine these issues and discuss options policymakers may want to consider.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Yaphe, Judith Share, 1944-

2001
Europe

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Despite substantial successes, U.S.-European security relations have been surprisingly acrimonious in the past several years. Transatlantic friction is rooted in differing perceptions of power. Europeans consider U.S. power the predominant fact of the international system and the only influence able to upset a status quo beneficial to their interests. Americans consider Europe to be like the United States, whereas the European perspective is regional rather than global. U.S. policy has focused on preventing emergence of a Europe that is too assertive, whereas the more likely and damaging prospect is a Europe unwilling or unable to more equitably share the burden of our common interests. The new administration should adopt policies more confidently based on U.S. strength and on promoting more responsibility and leadership by European allies on regional and global issues. This approach would more advantageously manage relations, especially on the four security issues likely to be most important: the Balkans, arms control, development of European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), and NATO enlargement.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Schake, Kori N.; Simon, Jeffrey, 1942-

2001
Russia

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Russia enters the new decade amidst significantly lowered expectations. Its domestic prospects look dim. Its prospects as a major player in the international arena are equally dim as a result of its domestic weakness and inability to articulate, let alone implement a coherent foreign policy agenda. The decade of the 1990s, with Russia in transition and the object of expectations of its imminent resurgence as a major power, has been succeeded by a new stage during which it has become increasingly likely that Russian transition--if it is a transition--probably will last even longer than previously thought. Thus, instead of prejudging the outcome of that transition and assuming the inevitability of a Russian comeback, as students of Russian affairs inside and outside of Russia have long done, the policy community needs to adjust its view of the country. There is nothing inevitable about Russia's comeback. It will not bounce back from its troubles any time soon. Its current decline may well continue indefinitely. For the foreseeable future and from the standpoint of U.S. policy and interests, the United States has to deal with a weak and retreating Russia whose residual international ambitions will usually exceed its capabilities and whose principal near-term challenge will be downsizing in a predictable, responsible manner. Despite its diminished international stature and domestic circumstances, the country's geography and nuclear arsenal preclude "forgetting Russia" as a realistic option for U.S. policy. The recommended course is an agenda of focused but limited engagement with Russia on key issues of strategic stability, weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation, and select regional concerns on Russia's periphery where U.S. interests are at stake.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Rumer, Eugene B., 1958-

2001
Challenges of China: Australian Perceptions and Reactions

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A rapid worsening of Sino-Australian relations in 1996 provided the new Coalition government in Canberra with a clear practical demonstration of the importance of China. China's irritation with Australia had increased in March when an Australian government statement expressed support for the U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Strait crisis. In June 1996, Chinese Minister for Trade Wu Yi expressed "strong concern" over Australia's sudden decision to discontinue its Development Import Finance Facility (DIFF) aid program. China was one of several Asian nations with joint projects that were jeopardized by the DIFF cancellation. China's annoyance with Australia increased in July 1996 after Australia voiced concerns over the fate of democracy and human rights in a post-handover Hong Kong and over China's July nuclear test on the eve of a testing moratorium. Australian Defense Minister Ian McLachlan suggested that China's actions during the Taiwan Strait crisis, its claims in the South China Sea, and its "newly assertive international posture" were destablizing to the region.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Wesley, Michael, 1968-

2001
China's Precarious Balance: Cohesiveness and Stability in a Fast-Changing Society

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Concerns about China's political and social stability figure prominently in Western governments' formulation of policy toward Beijing. Unlike a strong, stable, but less-than-friendly China, an unstable (and presumably weak) China presents a different set of strategic and political challenges to Western policymakers. Instability makes it difficult to protect some of the important interests that have been pursued by the West during the last two decades (such as improvements in human rights, governance, and access to the Chinese market). Internally, political instability usually triggers large-scale violence and loss of government authority. In the case of China, which has a large arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, a likely fallout from such instability would be ineffective control regimes over the exports of such weapons and related technologies.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Pei, Minxin

2001
Challenges for Sino-U.S.Relations: Issues and Problems

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As the world enters a new century and the new millennium, so too does the configuration of world powers. The multipolarization of the world and the globalization of the economy are introducing new international factors. In the post-Cold War era, major powers are readjusting and realigning their relationships. The developed countries, especially the U.S., are enjoying a relatively stable period of economic growth and making progress in science and technology. The information revolution has made the world a more integrated one. Along with these developments are changes in people's mindsets -- mentalities as well as ideas. Another prominent development is the increase of the numbers of nonstate or superstate players, regional organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and multinational corporations. Finally, the disintegration of the former Soviet Union is forcing the U.S. to redefine its strategic defense and China policy. Sino-U.S. relations have a strong international context because of other regional and global factors. The direction that the relationship takes will directly affect peace and economic development around the world and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. Given the commonality of some goals and difference between China and the U.S., there exist both positive and negative possibilities for their relationship in the years ahead.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Yang, Jiemian

2001
Defense White Papers in the Americas: A Comparative Analysis

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In preparation for the October 2000 Defense Ministerial of the Americas (DMA) in Manaus Brazil and at the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) studied the global trend toward the creation of Defense White Papers. The study aimed to understand the nature of these documents in order to prepare the U.S. delegation to discuss the tendency in Latin America and the Caribbean during the DMA. The INSS study team found no agreement about what constitutes a 'white paper' other than each is a consensus statement on a topic. The team examined 15 defense documents worldwide and interviewed participants in the development process and independent analysts. The results suggest that the formative, often difficult, process through which governments must move to solidify their approach to national security defense policy, and the structure to implement it and build consensus for it is the essential part of a 'white paper,' providing a constructive experience that benefits the country. Governments tended not to want a template for this process, although at the working level there is some interest in the experience of other states. Defense White Papers become highly stylized nationalistic documents that reflect a state's unique domestic circumstances and international geopolitical situation. The attached chart provides an overview comparison of the Defense White Paper processes of Canada, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and South Africa. Past efforts by U.S. agencies to design templates have

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Cope, John A.; Denny, Laura L.

2002
China's Defense Modernization: Aspirations and Capabilities

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Assessing Beijing's defense modernization programs in the midst of increasing apprehension over the growth of China's military power is a daunting task. During the Cold War, despite some concern over the long-term implications for the United States, assessments were viewed through the prism of China's role in containing the Soviet Union. Improvements in Beijing's military power were seen as serving U.S. interests by requiring Moscow to divert resources from the possible confrontation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance. By the mid-1990s, this perspective had shifted. Many observers perceived Beijing's confrontation with Taiwan and its aggressive, nationalistic approaches to territorial claims in the South China Sea as indicators of the belligerent policies China will pursue as economic enrichment and improvements in indigenous science and technology capabilities enhance its military power. Swelling defense budgets and military technology links with Russia, Israel, and Europe are viewed as giving China the potential to destabilize East Asia and challenge U.S. military preeminence. Analysts are divided by two factors in regards to the progress in defense modernization. The two factors are the changed perspective from which China's defense modernization is now viewed, and the differing estimates of the speed with which China can develop and produce weapons and technologies associated with the revolution in military affairs (RMA). The purpose of this essay is not to resolve these differences or bridge this divide. Rather, the differences will be identified to underscore the difficulties in assessing the progress China has made in two decades of defense modernization.

National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies

Godwin, Paul H. B.

2001

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