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From Urban Fragility to Urban Stability
From the Highlights: "[1] The share of Africa's urban residents living in slums is steadily rising as a result of an expanding and increasingly youthful population. Meanwhile, residents of African cities report among the highest levels of fear of violence in the world. [2] The inability of government institutions to resolve or at least mitigate conflicts over land, property rights, and services for urban residents, coupled with either absent or heavy-handed responses of security agencies in African slums, is contributing to a growing mistrust of African security and justice institutions. [3] Integrated urban development strategies--involving local government, police, justice institutions, the private sector, and youth--are necessary to build trust and adapt policies that strengthen economic opportunities, social cohesion, and security in Africa's cities."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Commins, Stephen K.
2018-06
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After the Election: Fundamental Security Challenges Nigeria Must Face
"After a hard-fought and competitive election, Muhammadu Buhari has become Nigeria's 4th democratically elected president. Observers from around the world have commended Nigeria for the smooth transition between rival political parties. Nigerians, neighboring countries, and international actors alike are now expectantly watching to see how Nigeria manages the many challenges facing Africa's most populous country and largest economy. Key among these is security. Nigeria has increasingly been in the global spotlight in recent years because of the rise in attacks by Boko Haram, the violent extremist group. This has resulted in the deaths of over 10,000 people since 2014. Less recognized is that Boko Haram is but one of a series of interlocking security and governance challenges that the new government in Nigeria will face. This compilation reviews some of the most pressing of these fundamental challenges and the leadership that will be required to address them."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2015-07
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Threat from African Militant Islamist Groups Expanding, Diversifying [infographic]
From the Document: "The threat from militant Islamist groups in Africa is not monolithic but comprises activity from a constantly shifting mix of roughly two dozen groups actively operating in 14 countries." This infographic depicts trends and locations for these active militant Islamist groups across Africa.
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2020-01
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Sifting Through the Layers of Insecurity in the Sahel: The Case of Mauritania
"Until recently, the Sahel ('as-Sahil'), literally the 'shore' of the Saharan 'sea,' rarely made headlines. Nevertheless, the expanding nexus of illicit trafficking and transnational Islamist terrorism--and the increasingly serious risk this poses to stability in the region and to international security--is attracting growing attention. These concerns will likely mount as al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) attempts to use the window of opportunity presented by the Arab Spring to reestablish itself in North Africa while transitional governments there devote much of their energy to rebuilding state institutions. In turn, an unstable North Africa, especially Libya, could further exacerbate insecurity in the Sahel as unsecured weapons and trained mercenaries filter their way into the region. As the spotlight on the Sahel widens, analytic shortcuts are perpetuating a superficial understanding of the region's security dynamics. Suboptimal policies are the result. Beyond the common perceptions of states, terrorists, and smugglers engaging one another across a sparsely populated territory, a more complicated reality exists. Rivalries among tribal groups, the state, private interests of government officials, castes, and others lead to constantly shifting local and regional political and economic arrangements. Understanding these layers of influence is vital to addressing the security challenges facing Mauritania and the broader Sahel."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Jourde, Cédric
2011-09
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Responding to the Rise in Violent Extremism in the Sahel
From the Highlights: "[1] Violent activity involving militant Islamist groups in the Sahel--primarily the Macina Liberation Front, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, and Ansaroul Islam--has doubled every year since 2015. [2] Employing asymmetric tactics and close coordination, these militant groups have amplified local grievances and intercommunal differences as a means of mobilizing recruitment and fostering antigovernment sentiments in marginalized communities. [3] Given the complex social dimensions of this violence, Sahelian governments should make more concerted efforts to bolster solidarity with affected communities while asserting a more robust and mobile security presence in contested regions."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Le Roux, Pauline
2019-12
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Spread of Surveillance Technology in Africa Stirs Security Concerns
From the Document: "In 2019, Kampala police procured $126 million worth of closed circuit television camera (CCTV) surveillance technology from Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei to help control the city's growing crime problem. Opposition and civil society leaders contend that the surveillance cameras, which rely on facial recognition technology, will be used instead to track and target government critics. This concern appears justified as an independent investigation has found that Ugandan intelligence officials are using the technology to crack the encrypted communications of popular singer and opposition leader Bobi Wine. Similar concerns have emerged across the continent as over a dozen African countries have deployed surveillance devices in recent years. These countries represent a range of political systems, and the intended purposes of the surveillance systems vary. Nonetheless, these technologies present challenges to democratic norms and practices."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Jili, Bulelani
2020-12-11
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Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Target Nigeria's Highways [infographic]
From the Infographic: "Violent events linked to Boko Haram and its offshoot the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) on Borno State's main roadways have spiked almost sixfold (to 67 episodes) in the past year. Reported fatalities linked to highway attacks rose more than fourfold during this time (to 259 deaths)."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2020-12-15
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Lessons from the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu Pandemic in Africa
From the Document: "While both the pandemic of 1918 and COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] are respiratory diseases largely spread through the air by coughing or sneezing, the two pandemics are different in important ways. The H1N1 influenza strain of 1918 had a very short incubation period--just 1 to 2 days--whereas the coronavirus incubation can stretch up to 2 weeks, and its spread is facilitated by asymptomatic carriers. Moreover, the flu pandemic of a century ago would penetrate deep into a victim's lungs straightaway, and its virulence could trigger an overreaction by the immune system, filling the lungs with antibodies that caused acute respiratory distress. As a result, victims were overwhelmingly the young and healthy. This is the inverse of COVID-19's age profile, which targets those with weakened immune systems. Despite these differences, lessons from the deadly pandemic of 1918 bear heeding today."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2020-05-13
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African Militant Islamist Groups Set Record for Violent Activity [infographic]
From the Description: "'African militant Islamist groups have demonstrated a decade of nearly uninterrupted growth in violent activity, though the focus of this has shifted over time. Militant groups in the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, and Mozambique have exhibited the sharpest increases in violent activity over the past year.'"
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2020-07-21
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Africa's Varied COVID Landscapes [infographic]
From the Webpage: "The number of reported COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases in Africa has been steadily increasing since the first confirmed episode in Egypt on February 15, 2020. [...] Precise analysis of COVID-19 in Africa continues to be hindered by limited testing and reporting of cases. There is a wide variance in testing capacity, commitment to testing, and reporting of coronavirus cases and deaths. As a result, countries that are undertaking the most tests or reporting the highest number of cases may not necessarily match those countries most impacted or at risk from the pandemic. Recognizing these data limitations, it is noteworthy that the pattern of reported transmissions of the coronavirus in Africa is shifting over time. At the outset of the pandemic, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies mapped out a series of nine risk factors reflecting levels of international exposure, urbanization, demography, fragility, and governance that collectively represent the varied vulnerabilities to the pandemic faced across the continent."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2020-07-13
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Drones and Violent Nonstate Actors in Africa
From the Document: "The risk of militarization of drone technology in Africa represents a new asymmetric tool that violent nonstate groups may deploy to extend the reach of their coercion, reshaping the African battlefield. In late 2016, the Islamic State (ISIS) reached an important milestone during the battle to secure the city of Mosul in Northern Iraq. In what is thought to be the first ever recorded use by violent nonstate actors in theatre, ISIS deployed a weaponized drone [hyperlink] or Unmanned Aerial System (UAS). The device, with a range of about a mile and a half, had been built and loaded with explosives and detonated in a densely populated urban battlefield. The impact was both physical and psychological. Civilians found themselves trapped deeper in the city while Kurdish Peshmerga and Shi'ite militias joining Iraqi government troops, struggled to regain control. Since that time, the use of UAS by violent nonstate actors has been observed in other conflict settings including Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Allen, Karen
2021-08-06
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Lessons for Africa from India's Deadly COVID Surge
From the Webpage: "India's COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] surge is a warning for Africa. Like India, Africa mostly avoided the worst of the pandemic last year. Many Sub-Saharan African countries share similar sociodemographic features as India: a youthful population, large rural populations that spend a significant portion of the day outdoors, large extended family structures, few old age homes, densely populated urban areas, and weak tertiary care health systems. As in India, many African countries have been loosening social distancing and other preventative measures. A recent survey by the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) reveals that 56 percent of African states were 'actively loosening controls and removing the mandatory wearing of face-masks.' Moreover, parts of Africa have direct, longstanding ties to India, providing clear pathways for the new Indian variant to spread between the continents. So, what has been driving India's COVID-19 surge and what lessons might this hold for Africa?"
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2021-05-28
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Dispelling COVID Vaccine Myths in Africa
From the Webpage: "The rollout of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccines was supposed to be a light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. Yet, just as the supply of vaccines has been increasing in Africa, so too has misinformation about their safety and efficacy. Fears about the vaccines [hyperlink] range from simple lack of information to far-fetched conspiracy theories. Concerns on the continent heightened after several European countries stopped using Oxford University's AstraZeneca vaccine following reports of blood-clotting among a small sample of recipients. While these countries have resumed their use of this vaccine, doubts in the minds of many Africans linger."
National Defense University. Africa Center for Strategic Studies
2021-05-21
