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Strategic Landscape, 2050: Preparing the U.S. Military for New Era Dynamics
"Barring major policy failures, the U.S. military will still enjoy unrivaled capabilities in the coming decades. But a series of megatrends and region-specific dynamics will challenge the U.S military and economic leadership, exposing the United States to crises and opportunities on the battlefield and in the market. These megatrends will define the evolving multicentric system of interaction among actors, facilitating further dispersion of influence that will undermine the U.S. position as the most influential actor while enabling its rivals to move up the ranks fast. This system is expected to have neither the place nor the tolerance for unipolarity, as once ascribed to the United States in the 1990s. Instead, it will have plenty of room for numerous actors exercising considerable influence in different domains. The U.S. military will need to adapt to these megatrends to retain its strategic edge. Otherwise, protecting U.S. interests in a continuously evolving world will be a fruitless enterprise, one that will hasten the perceived U.S. decline as the greatest military power the world has ever known. This monograph helps explore and prepare for the possible and the probable in a transformed world of 2050. Relying on forecasting, scenarios, and wild cards, it envisions the evolution of these megatrends and an emerging operational threat environment and strategic landscape for the U.S. military."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2017-09
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Unlocking India's Strategic Potential in Central Asia
"India's impressive economic growth over the last 2 1/2 decades has brought India's role and interests to the forefront of global politics and statecraft. Importantly, it has put India into a comparative perspective with China, another aspiring Asian great power poised to stiffen competition for resources and influence worldwide. Both are resource-hungry and rapidly emerging powers seeking a new place and role in the global and regional orders. Both are also strategic rivals and consider their immediate neighborhood of Central Asia of growing strategic importance to their grand strategies. For now, China has outperformed India in Central Asia on all counts, securing the region as a key resource base and platform for power projection. India launched the 'Connect Central Asia' policy in 2012 to shore up its presence, but the policy has not yet secured for it even a remotely comparable stake in the region due to aspects of India's strategic culture and geopolitical constraints. Meanwhile, U.S. strategic presence in the region leaves much to be desired. The United States is withdrawing from Afghanistan without major political or military gains from the conflict that has cost it and its partners a fortune in lives and money. The future of its military infrastructure and relationships with countries in Central-South Asia is a big unknown, with regional partners equating the U.S. military pullout with its waning commitment to support the regional economic and security order. To help unlock their strategic potentials, Delhi and Washington should join forces and cultivate a strategic partnership that makes Central Asia its major pillar."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2015-10-29
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China's Rise and Reconfiguration of Central Asia's Geopolitics: A Case for U.S. 'Pivot' to Eurasia
"Just as in the Asia-Pacific, it is the rise of China and its perceived efforts at domination in Central Asia that are driving the reconfiguration of the region's geopolitics and are challenging the U.S. global supremacy, requiring Washington to advance creative economic and military solutions in the heart of Eurasia. To stay relevant globally and regionally, the United States has to pursue a robust, direct, and long-term strategy of engagement in Central Asia. As it seeks to do so, Washington cannot premise its cooperation with other powers in Central Asia on the isolation of China--a global force calling for engagement where beneficial and containment where necessary. Washington should boost military engagement in the region, upgrade its New Silk Road Strategy (NSRS), advance cooperation with key partners, and shape China's global ascendance by leveraging its position in Central Asia. It should consider joining multilateral institutions involving the regional countries and China, or seek the creation of new ones to shape China's regional activities. It should link its NSRS with China's 'belt' strategy where it benefits the region's development while ensuring multidirectional contours of regional geo-economic forces. It should also start pondering how to leverage its potential strategic relationship with Iran, which links the Middle East with Central and South Asia, and shares growing economic ties with China. Finally, it should develop platforms of cooperation with China in economic and security spheres pertaining to both global and regional affairs. None of these tasks are easy to accomplish. This policy monograph, written in March 2015, sheds light on the crucial forces at work, assesses the possibility and implications of China's hegemony in Central Asia, and highlights the need for Washington to play real politics at the table rather than from across the high seas."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2015-07
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From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
"The nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 following the most stringent sanctions against Iran to date have opened new prospects for relaxation of tensions between Tehran and the West and for a U.S.-Iranian détente in the long run. The coming to power of new presidential administrations in both the United States and Iran, the additional sanctions, major geo-economic and geopolitical trends, and U.S.-Iranian economic and security cooperation imperatives all contributed to these dynamics. Some view the talks as a new beginning in U.S.-Iranian ties, which could herald the emergence of a U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship in the next 15 years. This work has developed three such possible strategic relationships: 1) strategic engagement involving a nuclear weapons-capable Iran; 2) comprehensive cooperation following a 'Grand Bargain'; and, 3) incremental strategic engagement after a nuclear deal. These relationships deliberately focus on constructive engagement, skipping the status quo and a strike on Iran as two other possible outcomes. If they pull it off by 2030, a U.S.-Iranian détente would advance external integration of the region, aiding the U.S. strategy of fostering global connectivity. It would promote resolution of conflicts and development and reconstruction of countries ravaged by wars and sectarian violence. It would also enable Washington to deploy select military assets to other locales to address other challenges while repurposing remaining forces to face new threats in the Greater Middle East. "
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2015-05-12
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Central Asia's Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy
From the Brief Synopsis of the Strategic Studies Institute website: "The United States is witnessing a transformation of Central Asia--a critical yet highly understudied and misunderstood area of the world, which is seeing growing influence of China, India, and Russia. The agendas of these actors, as well as the United States, Japan, the EU, Turkey, and Iran, among others, have enabled Central and South Asian countries to shrink their connectivity gaps dramatically in the last 2 decades, aiding the U.S. grand strategy of advancing global connectivity. However, they could also potentially undermine a multidirectional connectivity and limit development choices for the Central Asian states, generating challenges and opportunities for the United States, whose global influence is receding. The U.S. future global and regional role and capabilities will depend on how well Washington adjusts its grand strategy in response to current and projected economic and geopolitical trends in the era of rising powers. As the United States calibrates its ends and means, its assessment of the importance of Central and South Asia for its strategy will in large part hinge on security trends unfolding in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Whether Central Asia will become a major pillar of the U.S. grand strategy, given the rise of China and India and the resurgence of Russia, remains unclear. But its goals of supporting sovereignty, democratization, and inter-regional links in Central and South Asia offer some hope that Washington will continue to support the region's global connectivity, preferably by pursuing an engaged, long-term, and substantive regional strategy."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Muzalevsky, Roman
2014-11
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