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Egypt at the Crossroads: Domestic Stability and Regional Role
Egypt has a seminal role as a Middle East actor and is central in U.S. strategic planning on the Middle East. Because of Egypt's influence in the Arab and Islamic worlds, it is of paramount importance that Egypt remain a force for moderation. Any dramatic change in Egypt's position could alter the regional balance of power and the existing favorable security environment. Egypt's regional
role as a moderating element depends on its domestic tranquility
and its economic health. As authors in this volume emphasize, the
domestic and regional aspects of Egypt's policy are inextricably
linked. Without a reasonably sound economy and political stability,
Egypt will be unable to undertake an active regional role. The reverse is also true-an active peace process and a growing regional economy are essential for Egypt's stability at home. The combined essays tie together three essential components
of the U.S.-Egyptian equation. The first part addresses domestic
issues in Egypt and the prospects for Egypt's continued political stability. The second section concentrates on Egypt's regional role
in the new post-Cold War environment. The third part looks at the future of the U.S.-Egyptian partnership. Authors have probed the underlying factors likely to persist well into the 21 st century, rather
than dwelling on episodic changes that may dominate tomorrow's
headlines. It is hoped that exploration of these fundamental
aspects of Egypt and the U.S.-Egyptian relationship will provide a
sense of the forces at work in the region and of the issues with
which U.S. strategists will have to grapple over the next decade.
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Marr, Phebe
1999
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Iraq: Troubles and Tension
Iraq's political future over the next decade is uncertain. As a result of war and sanctions, Iraq's society, economy, and military posture are all in a state of decline, although not at a point of collapse. Hussein remains in control of the country except for the Kurdish exclusionary zone in the north, but his political base is narrowing due to splits in the family, increased reliance on tribalism for governance, and a weakening of bureaucratic infrastructures. Imple-mentation of UNSC Resolution 986 (oil-for-food) improves Hussein's chances of political survival, although it does not guarantee it. Sanctions have taken a greater toll on the population than on the regime, particularly among Kurds, Shi`ah, and the educated middle class, which have migrated in significant numbers. Assessments of the impact of war and sanctions on Iraq's future vary. According to some experts, the population is becoming impoverished, with per capita income less than half of what it was in 1960. Estimates of the cost of reconstruction run between $100 to 200 billion. Other analysts see Iraq as more resilient than expected. Much of the infrastructure damaged in the war has been rebuilt, especially in Baghdad. Sanitation is poor but roads and transportation networks are in good order. Iraq could probably recover fairly rapidly (within 5-7 years) if it received ample oil revenues and had a favorable investment climate, including debt relief. However, if Hussein remains in power, Iraq's recuperation is likely to be constrained by a continuation of some international restrictions and a poor investment climate.
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Marr, Phebe
1997-07
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U.S. Egyptian Relations After the Cold War: Egypt's Growing Challenges
"Despite several well publicized problems rising violence from Islamic extremists, an uninspired political climate, and continued unemployment and poverty Egypt's regime is in no immediate danger of collapse. Rather, the serious problems are long term. If a concerted attempt to address them is not made now, Egypt's future and U.S. interests could be threatened. The workshop focused on four interrelated issues: whether the political system can be revitalized without political upheaval; whether Islamic activism can be moderated or effectively challenged by competing secular forces; whether Egypt's economic reforms can be sustained in the face of the painful political adjustments they will require; and whether the military will continue to play a stabilizing domestic role."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Marr, Phebe
1994-08
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U.S.-GCC Security Relations, I: Differing Threat Perceptions
"Support for Washington's tough containment policy toward Iraq and Iran remains strong at top leadership levels in the Gulf. However, among educated elites and the man in the street, it is softer. The distance in views between the government and the populace on security concerns may be widening. In Saudi Arabia, there is a widespread view that Saudi Arabia (as distinct from Kuwait) was not threatened by Iraq in October 1994. In this view, Saddam's mobilization on the border was designed to call attention to Iraq's sanctions plight, and the United States over-reacted. Among the educated elite in the GCC states, sympathy for the Iraqi people is strong. So too are fears that continued sanctions, while failing to remove Saddam, could turn the Iraqi populace against the Gulf states that support sanctions. Conspiracy theories accuse the United States of keeping Saddam in power, or at least doing little to remove him, while using the Iraqi threat to strip the Arab Gulf states of their wealth through purchases of unnecessary military hardware. The idea that the United States has used the Iraqi threat to acquire a monopoly of military sales to the Gulf is widespread. More disturbing is growing anti-American sentiment, especially in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, where the the oil industry and the U.S. military are concentrated. Educated Arabs are beginning to blame the United States, with its strong military presence in the Gulf, for bolstering governments open to charges of corruption and maldistribution of wealth and perceived as suppressing even modest dissent."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Marr, Phebe
1995-08
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Egypt's Regional Role
"Egypt recognizes the gradual shift in emphasis in the post-Cold War world from geopolitics to geoeconomics. Egypt needs to restructure its economy and its defense posture if it is to play any substantial geostrategic role. Failure to meet this challenge could affect its role as a strong U.S. partner and a moderating force in the region. The workshop examined four aspects of Egypt's future regional role: Egypt's regional aspirations and its capacity to achieve them Regional trend likely to affect this role and the U.S.-Egyptian partnership The military posture Egypt will require in the post-Cold War era and its willingness to adapt to new challenges. The nature and future direction of the U.S.-Egyptian relationship."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Marr, Phebe
1995-04
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Iraq 'the Day After': Internal Dynamics in Post-Saddam Iraq
"Iran's policies,' secretary of state--designate Condoleezza Rice said during her January 2005 confirmation hearing, 'are about 180 degrees antithetical to our own interests at this point.' Rice mentioned Iran's nuclear pursuits as a specific area of concern. Arguably, trying to bomb Iran into a stance more in line with our own will not work, and Tehran has repeatedly refused to enter into direct public negotiations with Washington on this or other subjects. Iranian officials have traditionally said that they require a nuclear capacity because the country's oil resources are finite. They insist that they want to use nuclear energy for electricity generation to maximize oil exports and increase hard currency earnings. […] This article offers social network analysis as a potential solution to the problem of a nuclear Iran. Political scientists use this methodology to understand relationships between individuals and organizations; it has been applied in the business world and in counterterrorism to identify key actors and predict their future actions and positions. Use of this methodology by the U.S. Army--creating 'link diagrams' of blood and tribal relations--resulted in the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein."
Naval War College (U.S.)
Marr, Phebe
2003
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