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Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition
From the Document: "This strategic assessment is both firmly focused on the dynamics of contemporary Great Power competition (GPC) and respectful of past strategic assessments generated by the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) over the course of almost 40 years. As an homage to the format of several historical INSS strategic assessments, this one begins with a summary of major findings within the current volume. The chapters that follow provide multiple insights and analytical conclusions about contemporary GPC. This prelude provides many of the most significant and substantive findings and conclusions found within them. The findings are provided with an explicit reference to the book chapters where they are found. Readers are encouraged to consult the referenced chapters for deeper analysis and insight into these major research conclusions about, and considerations for, a new era of GPC."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Lynch, Thomas Francis, 1960-
2020
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Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences that Matter
"There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi'a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations [...]. First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi'a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid-to-high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open-ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi'a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives. Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi'a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi'a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state-run businesses. Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi-Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities. Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi'a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill. Fifth, Shi'a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high-casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi-Jihadist variant. Finally, each sect's extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently."
Combating Terrorism Center (U.S.)
Lynch, Thomas Francis, 1960-
2008-12-29
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India's Naxalite Insurgency: History, Trajectory, and Implications for U.S.-India Security Cooperation on Domestic Counterinsurgency
"The pace of U.S.-India defense cooperation over the past decade-and especially the past 2 years-has been unprecedented and impressive in many areas. These areas include defense technology cooperation, the discussion of a framework for military-to-military agreements, and the expansion of joint military exercises. U.S.-India defense cooperation, however, will remain limited in critical areas where India's historical independent interests remain firm. Among these areas of Indian reserve include strategic autonomy, the imperatives of domestic federalism, and the preference for a go-slow approach toward redressing civil unrest. Attempts by U.S. policymakers to press harder in these areas will likely prove counterproductive. India's long-running class-based, economic insurgency-the Naxalite insurgency (or Community Party of India [CPI]-Maoist insurgency)-is a case study in which external security partnerships will remain limited, if not mostly unwelcomed, in New Delhi. […] With this insight, U.S. policymakers should not expect that New Delhi will accept direct assistance for its domestic counterinsurgency units in the foreseeable future, and the United States should not press India too hard on this issue. […] The United States instead should focus on not only its offers of major near-term bilateral military assistance for security cooperation but also, to the extent that Indian sensitivities will allow, actions by China that threaten mutually held security concerns in New Delhi and Washington."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Lynch, Thomas Francis, 1960-
2016-10
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Return of Foreign Fighters to Central Asia: Implications for U.S. Counterterrorism Policy
"Central Asia is the third largest point of origin for Salafi jihadist foreign fighters in the conflagration in Syria and Iraq, with more than 4,000 total fighters joining the conflict since 2012 and 2,500 reportedly arriving in the 2014-2015 timeframe alone. As the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) continues to lose territory under duress from U.S.-led anti-ISIL coalition activities, some predict that many may return home bent on jihad and generating terror and instability across Central Asia. Yet several factors indicate that such an ominous foreign fighter return may not materialize. Among these factors are that a majority of Central Asians fighting for ISIL and the al-Nusra Front in Syria and Iraq are recruited while working abroad in Russia, often from low-wage jobs under poor conditions making the recruits ripe for radicalization. In addition, many of those heading for jihad in Syria and the Levant expect that they are on a 'one way journey,' some to martyrdom but most for a completely new life, and do not plan a return. Most Central Asian states face their greatest risk of domestic instability and violent extremism as a reaction to political repression and counterterrorism (CT) policies that counter-productively conflate political opposition and the open practice of Islam with a domestic jihadist threat. If improperly calibrated, greater U.S. CT assistance to address foreign fighter returns may strengthen illiberal regime short-term focus on political power consolidation, overplay the limited risks of foreign fighter returns, and increase the risks of domestic unrest and future instability."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Lynch, Thomas Francis, 1960-; Bouffard, Michael; King, Kelsey . . .
2016-10
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Russia and Saudi Arabia: Old Disenchantments, New Challenges
From the Introduction: "The international political landscape of 2021 is turbulent. [...] Among the bilateral relationships in flux, the one between Russia and Saudi Arabia is noteworthy. Over the past decade, that bilateral relationship has run through multiple twists, permutations, and reformations. Decades-long strategic mistrust and downright animus between Moscow and Riyadh faded by the end of the 2000s. What emerged in the 2010s was a mosaic of complex tactical accommodations, intermediate arrangements, and fluid interactions across the fields of geo-petroleum management, the ebb and flow of jousting for Middle East political ascendance, and the management of relations with the United States in the region and globally. For many observers, the Russia-Saudi relationship is opaque and largely indecipherable. [...] The report traces the most critical events and their context between Moscow and Riyadh during the last decade (2010-2020) impacting [...] four main relationship areas. It briefly establishes the dawn of Russia-Saudi diplomatic openings during the 2003-2007 period, then concentrates major analysis on the seminal events and activities for the relationship that began in 2013. The report evaluates the most salient features of the bilateral relationship in 2021 and its likely trajectory beyond. It ends with special attention to the implications of contemporary Russian-Saudi relations for the Biden administration's approach to relations with the Kingdom and in the wider Middle East."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Parker, John W., 1945-; Lynch, Thomas Francis, 1960-
2021-06
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