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Pending Crisis in North Africa
"The goal of the conference was to exchange views on regional security challenges, their underlying causes, and appropriate strategies for addressing them. Differing Tunisian and American perceptions of these challenges soon emerged. The American security concern is two-tiered: the shorter-term threat is the incremental spread of radical Islam, ultimately capturing the region, creating a tide of refugees in France, Italy, and Spain. The longer-term threat is the possibility that radical- leaning regimes would acquire weapons of mass destruction and that those regimes would disrupt the Middle East peace process. Other American concerns included controlling state-directed terrorism and the possible resurgence of dormant non-Islamic radicalism by anti- Western and anti-U.S. figures, such as Qadhafi. The Tunisian delegation emphasized three concerns: (1) the inherent vulnerability of Tunisia to unwanted external political and military influences, (2) the imperative of sustaining successful economic and social reform programs, and (3) the importance of playing a low-profile, intermediary role in regional affairs. "
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Lewis, William Hubert, 1928-
1994
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Islamic Radicalism in North Africa Force Works, For Now
"Islamic radicalism in North Africa has three faces-a religious one which seeks through personal piety, prayer, and preaching to make society more "just"; a reformist one which calls for legitimate political action using democratic, electoral means to change state and society from within; and an extremist face, which believes that only violent confrontation and destruction of the state can establish a new Islamic world order. Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, and Egypt tend to regard the latter two as equally dangerous to regional and regime stability. Their concerns about regional security, if radical Islamists were to gain power, grew in 1991 when an Islamist political party-the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS)-scored a major election victory and appeared to be on the verge of gaining power in Algeria. Over the subsequent four years, Algeria's neighbors watched in growing horror while the military-dominated Algerian government canceled elections, outlawed the FIS, and the country slipped into the chaos of urban terrorism and civil war. Determined not to repeat Algiers' mistake in allowing an Islamist party access to the political process, Tunis, Rabat, and Cairo sought to eliminate the opportunities for radical Islamist politicians to force a confrontation with the government, legally or illegally. Even Libya's Muamar Qadhafi, a long-time sponsor of Islamic 'liberation' movements, was not immune from Islamist-inspired opposition riots in several towns. Their answer was similar to that of the Algerian government-exclusion from the political process and containment through intimidation and force."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Yaphe, Judith Share, 1944-; Lewis, William Hubert, 1928-
1996-10
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