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Tripolar Stability: The Future of Nuclear Relations Among the United States, Russia and China
The purpose of this work is to identify policy and strategy issues associated with long-term nuclear threat reduction. For fiscal year 2002, the ASCO commissioned this follow-on paper. Its purpose is to explore the emerging nuclear dynamic among the United States, Russia, and China in the context of the new strategic framework pursued by the Bush Administration. The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union brought with them the end of the bipolar nuclear standoff and the East-West divide in international politics. What will succeed bipolarity? Multipolarity is one possibility, with a diffusion of power and nuclear weapons among multiple power centers in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Unipolarity is another, with a growing gap in the power differential between the United States and other powers, major and minor. A third possibility is tripolarity, in which the competition for influence and nuclear security between the United States and the Soviet Union is replaced by a three-way competition among the United States, Russia, and China. Is this a realistic possibility? How might it come to pass? Would this be a stable world? How should the new strategic framework and the strategy for stability being pursued by the Bush administration be informed by this analysis of tripolarity? Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Roberts, Brad
2002-09
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Asymmetric Conflict 2010
"Asymmetric warfare emerged as a major theme in U.S. defense planning with the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the shift in focus from peer adversary wars to major theater wars and smaller scale contingencies. At the same time, there has been rising concern about the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons, as well as missile delivery systems, and about their potential utility in asymmetric strategies. These twin factors gave rise to the Defense Counterproliferation Initiative in 1993, which sought to improve the capability of U.S. military force to project and prevail against regional adversaries employing weapons of mass destruction. A decade later, and as the United States begins a Quadrennial Defense Review with a new administration, it is useful to take stock so that mid-course corrections might be made to ensure that desired capabilities are achieved and the challenges of asymmetric warfare fully and competently addressed. Over the last decade, a good deal of thinking has been devoted to defining the asymmetric challenge. Asymmetric conflicts are understood to involve asymmetries of both capability and interest. On capability, the asymmetry in both conventional and nuclear power is much to the benefit of the United States, with the aggressor's imperative to act in ways that do not motivate Washington to bring to bear its full power potential. On interest, the asymmetry--as the aggressor might perceive it--contrasts his ostensibly vital concern against U.S. interests that by definition are over-the-horizon. Asymmetric strategies are the means by which the militarily-weaker state tries to bring whatever advantages it has to bear on the critical weak points of the stronger party. The perceived weak points of U.S.-led coalitions include, for example, the need to project power over long distances, the need for partners in such regional wars, and casualty aversion." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Roberts, Brad
2000-11
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19th ICCRTS [International Command and Control Research and Technology] Cyber Operations Model for Multi-Domain Conflict
"Cyberspace is now recognized as the fifth operational domain, and future military operations will both rely on, and--at least in part--be fought within, it. In addition, the dependency on cyberspace of the entire national critical infrastructure will continue to increase. This paper proposes an 'analytic model for multi-domain cyber operations,' which, coupled with a comprehensive 'cyber operation capability frame of reference,' can serve as the basis for a solution architecture to provide the required automated decision support (ADS) capability. The benefits of such an ADS capability are highlighted in the context of selected scenarios for multi-domain operations, and an implementation plan is proposed and discussed."
Institute for Defense Analyses
Rolfe, Robert M.; Loaiza-Lemos, Francisco L.; Odell, Laura A. . . .
2014-04
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Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence: Deterring Iraq and Iran
The likelihood of some future rogue state launching an ICBM in what would certainly be a suicidal act of vengeance or retaliation against the United States is, if not altogether impossible, then at least vanishingly small. The real reason the United States must keep nonproliferation and nuclear deterrence at the very center of its national security strategy is the imperative to defend its oldest and most cherished Ultimate Concern: maintaining the global strategic, economic, and diplomatic freedom of action that enables the US to continue to implement and expand its national vision of personal, political, and economic liberty. If any state, anywhere, is allowed to achieve its strategic objectives through either the employment of nuclear weapons or through nuclear blackmail, then the ability of the US to pursue its global economic and political as well as strategic interests will be impaired to a degree that will prove devastating to its Ultimate Concerns and, hence, unacceptable. The challenges of long-term threat reduction in the Persian Gulf region point to a larger challenge for US strategy. The widespread acceptance of US strategic hegemony that characterized the 1990s is gradually eroding. Unless the United States is willing to accept the burden of a constant cycle of regional crisis, strategy in the post-Kosovo era will have to find ways to advance US Ultimate Concerns in ways that are more responsive or, at the very least, less provocative to the Ultimate Concerns of the less-than-major powers -even the ones it finds distasteful in terms of its vision and values. The only alternative is the establishment of an Imperial US that even our allies are likely to resist, that will constitute a major long-term drain on national blood and treasure, and for which little US domestic political will exists. This paper explores nuclear deterrence and threat reduction in reference to Iran and Iraq, concluding with recommendations and concerns. Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Ziemke, Caroline F.
2001-09
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China-U.S. Nuclear Relations: What Relationship Best Serves U.S. Interests?
This paper on China-U.S. nuclear relations has been prepared to help put China more adequately into America's nuclear picture. We will need to understand China's nuclear modernization effort to inform choices on ballistic missile defense, nuclear reductions, and arms control that will promote the desired stability and security. We need to understand the potential for U.S.-China confrontation over Taiwan, under a nuclear shadow, to define the requirements of the deterrence posture. We need also a better notion of how China fits into the global nuclear equation to craft and implement strategies to reduce short-term nuclear threats and long-term risks. The author undertakes a comprehensive review of the challenges in the China- U.S. nuclear relationship. The purpose is to help with the process of defining American interests in the bilateral nuclear relationship and of identifying strategy choices that help secure those interests. Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Roberts, Brad
2001-08
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East Asia's Nuclear Future: A Long-Term View of Threat Reduction
The Bush administration has committed itself to the effort to construct a new framework for stability and security suitable to the new, post-Cold War environment, a framework that will encompass to the maximum extent possible cooperation with others. How might a view of the East Asian security environment, and especially the view of U.S. friends and allies there, inform the effort to deploy ballistic missile defenses, pursue nuclear reductions, and adjust arms control strategies? How might a view of the challenges of long-term nuclear threat reduction in the region inform U.S. policy development? This paper begins with a survey of the debate about the requirements of security and stability in East Asia after the Cold War. It identifies four different camps, each with its own definition of stability, as: a balance of power, principally between China and the United States; continued progress toward a regional security order based on cooperative or common security principles; the absence of significant defections from existing strategic alignments; preservation of the nuclear status quo. For analytical purposes, this study defines East Asian strategic stability as a balance that permits changing relations of power among states in the region without war; reassures states that significant departures from the status quo are unlikely, or at least predictable, and can be managed so that they are not disruptive or particularly threatening; enables progress toward more cooperative approaches to security; and reassures states in the region that they need not more aggressively hedge against unanticipated strategic developments. The study also discovered among American experts a lack of consensus about the relationship between stability and security in the region. The conventional wisdom holds that stability and security are common gods and that, from an American perspective, a more stable Asia makes America more secure. But that perspective is not shared by all. Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Roberts, Brad
2001-08
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Far East and Middle East: An Investigation of Strategic Linkages
The purpose of this paper is to investigate strategic linkages between Far East and Middle East states, a relatively overlooked field of study. The paper discusses the strategic importance of these regions as they relate to the United States. Study tasks in the paper include identifying common interests and strategic relationships, identifying instances of relationships, and drawing implications for U.S. policy. An analytical framework is presented on relationships between China and the Middle East, China and the war on terrorism, North Korea and the Middle East, and the Middle Eastern Perspective. The paper concludes with a summary of implications for U.S. policy.
Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Hassig, Kongdan Oh; Ziemke, Caroline F.
2002-09
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Northeast Asian Strategic Security Environment Study
This paper was prepared by the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) in partial fulfillment of a task for the Advanced Systems and Concepts Office (ASCO), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and is a part of a larger task entitled, "Study on the Dangers and Challenges Posed by a Highly Proliferated Nuclear World to U.S. National and Global Security Interests." Northeast Asia has changed tremendously over the past several decades, presenting a never-ending series of challenges to U.S. policy. But what has not been closely studied are the relations among states in the region, especially in the security and military areas. The goal of this paper is to deliver a succinct yet comprehensive description of Asia-Pacific regional security perceptions and dynamics among six actors in the region: China, Japan, the two Koreas, Taiwan, and the United States. We shall examine current regional security perceptions and relationships as a means of foreshadowing what kinds of multilateral relationships are likely to develop in the next ten to twenty years. Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Hassig, Kongdan Oh
2001-08
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United States and East Asia After 9/11
"The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States have the potential to profoundly alter the nature of US relations with its allies and non-allies alike, The opportunity provided by the loose coalition against terrorism is to leverage US leadership to forge better long-term working relationships with a multitude of states, The danger is that strong US leadership will be interpreted as global hegemony, which will be resisted by other states, even including our allies, This report offers an assessment of views of East Asian governments and peoples on the ongoing anti-terrorism campaign Because the terrorism and response to terrorism is very recent, the sources for this study are primarily official and unofficial statements of East Asian governments, unsystematic surveys of Asian media reactions and public opinion polls, and discussions with East Asian specialists and policy makers." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Hassig, Kongdan Oh
2002-09
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Countering Iran with Arms Sales to the Gulf Cooperation Council States
"U.S. and Gulf Arab leaders are concerned that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, the result will be a significant change in the regional balance of power. For several decades, Iran has used a strategy of 'low-level' aggression against its neighbors, relying on terrorism, subversion, and limited military strikes. Careful of the fact that its victims could escalate militarily in response, Iran has developed a range of capabilities and techniques to strengthen its deterrence. In doing so, Iran gains additional freedom to commit low-level aggression and thereby coerce its neighbors. A principal concern is that nuclear deterrence could substantially increase this freedom. One of the few options available to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is to augment their holdings of advanced conventional weapons, including major offensive ones like cruise missiles, modern strike aircraft, and precision-guided bombs. By strengthening their military power, these states lessen the risk to themselves in retaliating strongly for Iran's low-level aggression, thereby helping to deter such aggression in the first place. Moreover, this process of strengthening helps signal to Iran that the country's acquisition of nuclear weapons will not greatly enhance its regional influence. In fact, it is conceivable that Iran will become worse off for having acquired nuclear weapons, given significant changes to the conventional military power of its neighbors." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Rosenfield, Daniel K.
2012-03
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Development of a New Contagious Disease Model for NATO Allied Medical Publication 7.5 (AMedP-7.5)
"In October 2017, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Standardization Office published Allied Medical Publication 7.5 (AMedP-7.5) 'NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Casualties,' a document authored by the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) under tasking by the U.S. Army Office of the Surgeon General (OTSG). AMedP-7.5 describes a methodology for estimating the number and timing of casualties from CBRN agents and effects to 'assist planners, logisticians, and other staff officers in quantifying contingency requirements for medical force structure, specialty personnel, medical materiel, and patient transport or evacuation.' Users of this methodology can estimate casualties resulting from exposure to 12 chemical agents, 15 biological agents (including 4 toxins), 13 radioisotopes, radioactive fallout, or prompt nuclear effects. A contagious disease model in AMedP-7.5 also allows users to account for the potential of secondary transmission of 2 of the 15 biological agents (the causative agents of pneumonic plague and smallpox)."
Institute for Defense Analyses
LaViolet, Lucas A.; Cubeta, Robert L.
2018-06
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Operationalizing Dissuasion of China: Practicalities and Pitfalls
"The 2005 QDR [Quadrennial Defense Review] brings with it questions about how to operationalize dissuasion in U.S. military planning. Doing so requires coming to terms with continued confusion about the means and ends of dissuasion. Especially important will be balancing the desire to discourage military competition by China with the desire to encourage strategic partnership. Operationalizing dissuasion can be done in a variety of ways, with at least four different organizing principles: (1) aggressively impose costs and reduce benefits, (2) prepare for the second move advantage, (3) mix competition at the conventional level with restraint at the strategic level, and (4) bet on transformation. Each has potential benefits, costs, and risks. But none can succeed without an effective strategic communication campaign that effectively integrates the interagency process in support of a consistent set of U.S. 'messages' to Beijing." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses
Roberts, Brad
2005-04
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Spanish Influenza: A Brief Overview
From the Introduction: "The Spanish Flu has lived in cultural memory with varying degrees of emphasis since it first appeared early in 1918. Recent shows like 'Downton Abbey' and 'The Village' have tried to show the effects of the disease at all levels of society, but it's difficult for the screen to convey just how far-reaching the disease actually was. We do have an abundance of first-hand accounts and no end of contemporary newspaper coverage, however, so there's very little need to imagine just how damaging it was in its reach. Estimates place the death toll around the world at anywhere between 17 and 100 million, with most sources hovering around 50 million, a number that exceeds the combined number of military and civilian casualties from the First World War. The uncertainty lies mainly with the state of record keeping at the time, a concern that undoubtedly obscures our ability to understand the entire scope of the pandemic."
Institute for Defense Analyses
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Assessing Measures to Mitigate the Effects of an Emerging Infectious Disease
This conference publication centers on two questions,[...] "what responses can be taken to mitigate the effects of an Emerging Infectious Disease on a military population? And which response would be most effective?"
Institute for Defense Analyses
Burr, Julia K.; Cubeta, Robert L.; Grotte, Jeffrey H. . . .
2016-04
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Shooting the Messenger: Diplomats Crushed by Wave of New Terrorism
"The security of diplomats is a challenging endeavor that requires constant evaluation and increased resources. This thesis compares and contrasts the Cold War and Post-Cold War ems to determine trends in attacks against diplomatic targets and identifies a dangerous evolution in terrorist tactics that combines suicide bombers with armed assaulters in which none of the attackers intend to survive. The Global Terrorism Database shows the number of attacks against diplomatic targets during the last 22 years of the Cold War(1970-l99l) are roughly equal to the number in the first 23 years post-Cold War (1992-2015)."
Joint Advanced Warfighting Program (Institute for Defense Analyses)
Geinert,Justin M
2017-04-26
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Nuclear Multipolarity and Stability
"What are the implications of nuclear multipolarity for stability? This is one of a dozen questions set out by the Nuclear Deterrence Sustainment Panel of the Threat Reduction Advisory Committee as a part of its effort to stimulate 'a more profound level of intellectual activity' about how to meet and reduce threats posed by weapons of mass destruction. In trying to come to terms with this question, analysts in the United States clearly work with a very significant intellectual inheritance from the Cold War. This inheritance defines some very specific ways of thinking about nuclear stability, with an emphasis on the twin problems of arms race and crisis instability. It also defines some specific ways of thinking about multipolarity, with an emphasis on the balance of power system and nuclear proliferation. To better appreciate where inherited concepts remain valid, where they can help generate useful new insights, and where their limitations are crippling requires a new approach based on the strategic realities of the emerging nuclear era, rather than the past one. Toward that end, this paper explores three levels of analysis: The major power core, the regional subsystems, the connections between the two.
In each case, new or newly significant nuclear dynamics are identified and explored. Potential sources of instability are then considered. These are then collected together to frame an assessment of the changing nuclear stability agenda." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses; United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Roberts, Brad
2000-11
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Changing Requirements of Extended Deterrence
"Security assurances involve promises, commitments, pledges, and similar illocutionary acts. Government officials can make them publicly or secretly (or through some combination of the two). Security assurances can be formal or informal, reduced to writing or given verbally (or even inferred from gestures), made among a few parties or many. They can be given sincerely or deceptively. They can be clear or equivocal. They may prove to be durable or withdrawn on short notice. Their credibility depends, partly, on the perceived capability to carry through, but also on elements of a relationship involving overlapping interests, shared memories and experiences, compatible values, appreciation of institutional processes, and the ever-changing vagaries of personality and circumstance -- things that help determine confidence and trust in the will of governments to deliver on their promises. History is filled with instances of broken promises. But there also are success stories (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) comes to mind). Whatever one's perspective, security assurances are an important tool of statecraft. They are especially important in the nuclear age when a uniquely demanding form of security assurance -- extended 'nuclear' deterrence -- addresses the highest end of the threat spectrum." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency; Institute for Defense Analyses
Wheeler, Michael O.
2011-06
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Strategic Personality and the Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence
From the abstract: "Changes in the international system since the end of the Cold War has necessitated the reevaluation of the theoretical assumptions that have underlay nuclear deterrence strategies for the past half-century. In light of the emergence of new nuclear-armed states and the breakdown of the bipolar balance-of-power, the old one-size-fits-all deterrence approaches may not reflect the realities of the new security environment. This study suggests how Strategic Personality Typing can provide useful insights into how to approach the problem of forging more effective and supple deterrence strategies in the future. It includes a series of historical case studies to illustrate the kinds of insights the Strategic Personality methodology can provide." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses; United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Ziemke, Caroline F.; Loustaunau, Philippe; Alrich, Amy A.
2000-11
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Geopolitics and Nuclear Order: The Nuclear Planning Environment in 2015
"With the end of the Cold War and demise of the Soviet Union nearly a decade ago, the American debate about nuclear weapons shifted to new ground. It is now dominated by two opposing camps, the 'nuclear abolitionists' and the 'nuclear guardians'. These two camps see the world in starkly contrasting terms, though they seem rarely to debate the assumptions that underpin their worldviews. But worldviews will shape policy. The nuclear planning environment as it might exist in the year 2015 will be shaped fundamentally by how policymakers understand the principal themes of international politics and the new challenges posed by changing relations of power among major and minor actors in the interstate system. By thinking through a range of feasible alternative international orders in the year 2015, it is possible to get beyond simple best- and worst-case projections of the future. This helps to illuminate the range of demands, both political and operational, that might be put on the nuclear posture of the United States. Whether the world will become more multipolar or unipolar, or whether new variants of bipolarity or even non-polarity will emerge cannot be known today. We can anticipate, however, both benign and stressing variants of each. Relatively benign environments may lead U.S. policymakers to conclude that the numbers and types of deployed weapons may not matter very much; survivability and to an increasing extent safety would seem likely to matter much more. In the relatively stressing environments, numbers and types would likely matter a good deal more. In some variants, renewed theater nuclear roles are likely; while in others extended deterrence matters hardly at all." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Institute for Defense Analyses; United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Advanced Systems and Concepts Office
Roberts, Brad
1999-09
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