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• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #19: Pandemic-Related Factors Associated with Candidate Preferences

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  From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic and the associated economic fallout is the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election. [...] In this report, we provide preliminary evidence regarding one aspect of the relationship between the ongoing pandemic and the 2020 election. Specifically, we ask about the degree to which vote choice is associated with attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic, and whether the pandemic may be making voters who would otherwise be likely to support Donald Trump for re-election reluctant to do so. Throughout, our analysis is restricted to likely participants in the two-party contest this November - that is, respondents who say they are registered to vote, are very likely to vote in the 2020 election or have already voted, and are supporting Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or are undecided."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2020-10-30
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #20: Public Opinion Around Federal and State Reactions to COVID-19

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  From the Document: "In every month, April through October of 2020, we surveyed individuals in every state about how federal and state governments are reacting to the pandemic. We found a remarkably consistent picture of public opinion: respondents prefer state governments over the federal government when it comes to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. Out of 8 waves in 50 states & DC - a total of 408 surveys at the state level - in 402 state-level surveys more people in the state felt the state government was reacting 'about right' to the COVID-19 outbreak as compared to the federal government; and only 6 times did people in a state choose the federal government over their state government."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Green, Jon . . .

  2020-10-30
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #22: Executive Approval Update

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  From the Document: "Despite the headwinds confronting the country in facing COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], approval of most governors' and President Trump's COVID-19 response did not change greatly between September and October in our survey. President Trump's approval has ticked up a point to 35%, which is still problematically low approval for the most salient issue in the 2020 election by far (in 49 out of 50 states, Alaska being the one exception, COVID-19 is ranked as 'the most important problem'). More generally, after suffering a decline in the spring, the President's approval rating has been flatline around his October rating of 35%. [...] We note that the most recent survey was conducted from October 2nd to 25th. We are in the midst of a large spike of cases in the US, and with enormous geographic variation. The number of daily cases has roughly doubled since we began the survey and has increased by 15% since it concluded. Thus, the question we will address in our next executive approval report is how the current spike in cases will have affected presidential and gubernatorial approval."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Green, Jon . . .

  2020-10
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #26: Trajectory of COVID-19-Related Behaviors

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  From the Document: "The current state of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic in the United States is dire, with circumstances in the Upper Midwest particularly grim. In contrast, multiple countries around the world have shown that temporary changes in human behavior and consistent precautions, such as effective testing, contact tracing, and isolation, can slow transmission of COVID-19, allowing local economies to remain open and societal activities to approach normalcy as of today. These include island countries such as New Zealand, Taiwan, Iceland and Australia, and continental countries such as Norway, Uruguay, Thailand, Finland, and South Korea. These successes demonstrate that coordinated action to change behavior can control the pandemic. In this report, we evaluate how the human behaviors that have been shown to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 have evolved across the US since April, 2020. Our report is based on surveys that the COVID States Project has been conducting approximately every month since April in all 50 US states plus the District of Columbia. We address four primary questions: 1) What are the national trends in social distancing behaviors and mask wearing since April? 2) What are the trends among particular population subsets? 3) What are the trends across individual states plus DC? 4) What is the relationship, at the state level, between social distancing behaviors and mask wearing with the current prevalence of COVID-19?"

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Santillana, Mauricio; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2020-11-27
• State of the Nation: A 50-State Covid-19 Survey Report #16: Partisan Differences in Intention to Vote by Mail

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  From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has led many election administrators, as well as voters, to reconsider the manner in which votes will be cast during the 2020 general election. With many voters wary of waiting in line in person beside strangers on Election Day, registrars around the country are preparing for a far higher share of ballots to be cast by mail than ever before. The best available academic research suggests that holding elections entirely by mail slightly increases turnout, but does not advantage either major political party. [...] Here we evaluate three questions: [1] 'How many people report that they will vote by mail in each state?' [2] 'What will be the difference in candidate choice between those who vote on the day of the election versus those who vote by mail?' [and 3] 'What is the potential shift in the margin between Trump and Biden from the day of voting to a count that incorporates votes received by mail?' To evaluate these questions, we use the most recent two waves of our 50-state survey, which included a question asking 37,659 respondents (26,838 among them likely voters) how likely they were to vote by absentee or mail-in ballot."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Quintana, Alexi . . .

  2020-10-09
• State of the Nation: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey Report #23: Depression Among Young Adults

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  From the Document: "Alongside the direct health impact of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] itself, there has been increasing recognition of the consequences of the pandemic for mental health. Initial attention focused on the front line health workers impacted by the first surge, but Americans have felt the impact of the pandemic and the strategies required to contain it far more broadly. [...] In our earlier 50-state survey wave in May, we noted substantial elevation in rates of depression (up to 27% across age groups), compared to historical norms using the same screening measure - in those aged 20-39, rates of moderate depression between 2013 and 2016 averaged to 7.7%. In this report, we examine whether rates of depression among people aged 18-24 changed during the summer and early fall, as the pandemic expanded and shifted to new regions of the US. We characterize mental health in more detail, looking at individual symptoms, including thoughts of suicide, generalized anxiety, and disruption in sleep. We also consider whether particular demographic subgroups are differentially impacted in terms of mental health."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Harvard Medical School; Rutgers University . . .

  Perlis, Roy H.; Green, Jon; Quintana, Alexi . . .

  2020-11-09
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #38: Public Perceptions of Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  From the Document: "One of President Joe Biden's top pandemic-related policy priorities has been to get children back into schools. The president and his advisors have cited multiple reasons for the urgency of doing so, ranging from nutrition to mental health to the quality of K-12 [kindergarten through twelfth grade] learning during the pandemic. Since March of 2020, American school children have faced a variety of learning environments, varying by time and place, and ranging from all-virtual school, to hybrids of part-virtual and part-in-person school, to all-in-person school. Schools have reopened, only to close again in response to local outbreaks. As with other aspects of the pandemic, community response has often been vocal and polarized. Some parents have pressured local school boards to open their neighborhood schools to in-person learning; others have applied pressure for the opposite: all virtual schooling until local covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] transmission is brought down to manageable and safe levels. In our December 2020 survey wave, we included a series of questions aimed at assessing the state of opinion regarding these topics."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Perlis, Roy H.; Green, Jon . . .

  2021-02-05
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #36: Evaluation of COVID-19 Vaccine Communication Strategies

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  From the Document: "This report outlines the current state of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccine hesitancy (defined as preferring to delay vaccination) and resistance (defined as not wanting to take the vaccine at any point), as well as the results from two experiments designed to test strategies for increasing Americans' willingness to take the vaccine when it's available to them. We evaluate the results of two experiments testing different communication strategies to increase people's willingness to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Key findings are that a variety of 'messages' are effective for reducing vaccine hesitancy and resistance, while 'messengers' are less effective and - in the case of partisan messengers - have the potential to 'increase' resistance among political out-groups. The most effective strategies evoked scientists and people's own doctors as endorsers of vaccination. We found, also, that messages evoking harm reduction and 'people you know' were more effective in counties where the virus is spreading more quickly."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #35: Public Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Vaccines

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  From the Executive Summary: "We present a variety of descriptive results on attitudes and beliefs regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccines. We find a notable consensus across population subgroups regarding order of prioritization for receiving vaccines, which roughly aligns with current policies. We additionally find that while there are generally positive attitudes and beliefs regarding vaccines, there are also some negative attitudes and misbeliefs that are especially common within certain demographics (political independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans; Black respondents; and individuals ages 25-44). The reported results are based on data collected from 24,682 people between December 16, 2020 and January 10, 2021. For these descriptive analyses, we apply survey weights using national benchmarks for race, gender, age, education, Census region, and urbanicity."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Green, Jon; Lazer, David; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #39: Public Attitudes Towards the Storming of the Capitol Building

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  From the Document: "This was the latest in a series of surveys we have been conducting since April 2020, examining attitudes and behaviors regarding COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] in the United States. [...] The 2020 election produced two distinct perceived realities for the United States public. The first perceived reality holds that the election was conducted fairly, and that Joe Biden won. Individuals who hold this vision of reality feel their votes were counted accurately, and that the events of January 6th [hyperlink] were repugnant. This is also the version of reality for 60-70% of the US population. This reality is documented by court cases, our government officials (Republican and Democratic) in charge of administering the election, and the credible news media. The second vision of reality holds that the election was essentially corrupt--driven, in particular, by illegal mail-in ballots, noncitizen voting, and voting machine fraud. In this perceived reality, Biden is a usurper to the presidency. Further, the people who stormed the Capitol had a point, although the worst actions were taken by individuals affiliated with Antifa activists masquerading as Trump supporters. This is the expressed reality of former President Trump, certain Republican leaders, a subset of conservative media, and certain corners of the social media ecosystem. This is also the reality for 25-30% of the US population, and roughly half of Republicans. These two perceived realities are not created equal. The facts, as presented by the fact sorting institutions of the government and media, unambiguously support the first."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Baum, Matthew A., 1965-; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-02-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #31: Update on the Trajectory of Health-Related Behaviors

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  From the Document: "Since April 2020, the COVID [coronavirus disease] States Project has been surveying respondents regarding social distancing behaviors and adherence to health recommendations more generally. Our November report [hyperlink], looking at the data from April to November, with a partial exception of mask wearing, found a steady relaxation of these behaviors over time. In this report, we update our November results, finding that this trend has partially reversed, perhaps due to the surge of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases in the last two months. Mask wearing reached its all-time high in our December/January survey, and social distancing behaviors have substantially increased since October (though still far from April levels)."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #37: Gun Purchases During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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  From the Document: "Gun purchases in the United States have increased dramatically since the start of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. Based on FBI data, the National Shooting Sports Foundation reported 21 million background checks for firearms sales [hyperlink] in 2020, up from 13.2 million the previous year and surpassing the previous record of 15.7 million in 2016. The biggest spikes occurred in March and June, as shown in Figure 1. While March is typically a month of high gun buying [hyperlink], this year saw a much sharper surge. June's spike in gun purchases is even more abnormal compared to previous years when gun purchases are typically close to their low point."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Simonson, Matthew; Lazer, David; Perlis, Roy H. . . .

  2021-02-05
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #32: Update on Public Support for Measures Aimed at Curbing COVID-19

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  From the Summary: "In report 25, published in November, we evaluated public support for taking more aggressive measures to limit the spread of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019]. The key finding is that there is broad support for taking more steps to limit the spread of the disease. In a just completed survey, we repeated these questions, finding that opinions are virtually unchanged since November: large majorities across the 7 issue areas support taking more aggressive steps. The measure with the least support, which would be the most drastic step - requiring most businesses other than grocery stores and pharmacies to close - has exactly the same level of support we observed in November: 60%. The only step that has seen statistically significant erosion in support is restricting international travel, which has edged downward from November, from 88% to a still quite high 84%. Support across the 50 states plus DC also is quite high. In 43 states plus DC, majorities support all 7 measures; in 4 states majorities support 6 measures, and in three (Montana, South Dakota, and Wyoming), majorities support 5 of 7 measures (the two exceptions being requiring most businesses to close and prohibiting K-12 [kindergarten through twelfth grade] schools from teaching in person)."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #34: Update on Holiday Gatherings in December 2020

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  From the Document: "Public health officials have expressed concern that multi-household holiday gatherings might have driven a January surge of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases. As noted in report 31 [hyperlink], social distancing behaviors have generally been improving since late October, including in our most recent wave conducted over the holidays. However, the scope of our data collection regarding social distancing, which focused on proximity to others in the 24 hours preceding survey response, might have missed important spikes in proximity around Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. Therefore, here we evaluate the responses from a survey conducted between December 16th and January 10th, to a separate question asking whether people had gathered for the holidays in November and December."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Quintana, Alexi; Baum, Matthew A., 1965- . . .

  2021-01-25
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #33: Update on COVID-19 Test Turnaround Times Across the Country

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  From the Key Takeaways: "1) Average wait times for COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] test results continue to fall steadily (from 3.9 days in March to 2.2 days in December). 2) Racial disparities still exist in testing times: in December, Hispanic and Black respondents waited 0.7 and 0.4 days longer than white respondents, respectively. 3) In December, the average respondent waited 2.4 days between seeking a test and obtaining a test. They waited another 2.2 days to receive test results. 4) Testing is still too slow to support effective contact tracing."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Chwe, Hanyu; Quintana, Alexi; Lazer, David . . .

  2021-01-15
• COVID States Project: A 50-State COVID-19 Survey, Report #40: COVID-19 Vaccine Attitudes Among Healthcare Workers

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  From the Executive Summary: "'In this report, we examine the demographic correlates of vaccination, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine resistance among the subset of 1,797 respondents in the COVID [coronavirus disease] states survey who indicated that they are healthcare workers. We find that education, income, gender, race/ethnicity, and partisanship are strong predictors of vaccination rates recorded thus far, as well as of vaccine hesitancy and resistance.' Healthcare workers represent a microcosm of US society, and a consequential one. They are polarized in terms of income and education, ranging from physicians with extensive postgraduate education, to cleaning staff with less than a high school education. Healthcare workers also have taken a disproportionate brunt of the national response to COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], in terms of the physical and emotional labor to care for millions of sick people; to bid goodbye to hundreds of thousands; and to confront, by the nature of their work, the increased risks of exposure to the virus. They have also been among the first wave of recipients of COVID-19 vaccinations; and as such, they are doubly important. First, they may be predictive of what is to come in the rest of the US's vaccination campaign. Healthcare workers represent the first diverse population that has the opportunity to get vaccinated. As such, their responses regarding vaccine willingness are more proximate and less hypothetical than they are with our other survey respondents. Second, they may directly affect the willingness [hyperlink] of other Americans to be vaccinated, by dint of their high perceived credibility regarding issues of health."

  Northeastern University (Boston, Mass.); Rutgers University; Northwestern University (Evanston, Ill.) . . .

  Lazer, David; Perlis, Roy H.; Ognyanova, Katherine . . .

  2021-02