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Getting Beyond Taiwan? Chinese Foreign Policy and PLA Modernization
"Since the mid-1990s, China's military modernization has focused on deterring Taiwan independence and preparing for a military response if deterrence fails. Given China's assumption of U.S. intervention in a Taiwan conflict, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been developing military capabilities to deter, delay, and disrupt U.S. military support operations. The 2008 election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, however, has contributed to improved cross-strait economic and political cooperation and dramatically reduced the threat of Taiwan independence and war across the Taiwan Strait. Cooperation has included full restoration of direct shipping, flights, and mail across the strait, Taiwan's participation in the World Health Assembly, regularized cross-strait negotiation mechanisms that have already reached several agreements, and the recent signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement. This decreased cross-strait tension and tentative rapprochement have raised the prospect of fundamental changes in China's security challenges. If the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan sustain this positive cooperation over the next 5 to 10 years and continue to deepen rapprochement, how would this affect regional stability, China's diplomatic grand strategy, and China's military modernization? Other analysts have examined the implications of an ultimate political resolution to the Taiwan issue, but this paper analyzes the implications of deeper cross-strait rapprochement, a much more likely scenario over the next 5 to 10 years."
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Glosny, Michael A.
2011-01
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U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue: Phase VIII Report
"The eighth annual session of the U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue on strategic nuclear issues was held in Oahu, Hawaii, from June 8 to 10, 2014. The dialogue is a Track 1.5 meeting; it is formally unofficial but includes a mix of government and academic participants. The dialogue is organized by the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and Pacific Forum CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) and funded by the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA) Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) at NPS. For the third time, this meeting was also supported by a Chinese co-host, the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA). This 'non-governmental' association, with close ties to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and People's Liberation Army (PLA), helped improve the level and quality of participants and secure support for discussing certain topics. The goal of this series of annual meetings has been to identify important misperceptions regarding each side's nuclear strategy and doctrine and highlight potential areas of cooperation or confidence building measures that might reduce such dangers." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Glosny, Michael A.; Twomey, Christopher P.; Jacobs, Ryan
2014-12
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US-China Strategic Dialogue, Phase VI: An NPS and Pacific Forum Conference, June 2011
"This report briefly summarizes the format and background of a series of dialogues between the United States and China on nuclear issues before turning to a more focused discussion of the current year's session. It begins addressing general discussions on contemporary policy and prospects for arms control and confidence and security building measures (CSBMs). It then turns to those terminological discussions themselves since they were the centerpieces of the meeting, and insights from those discussions pervade the entire report. Finally, the report concludes with some policy implications." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; United States. Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Lindsey, Eben; Glosny, Michael A.; Twomey, Christopher P.
2011-11
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U.S.- China Strategic Dialogues [PASCC Research in Progress]
"China is currently modernizing its military capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal, and there remains a lack of official discussions on these issues. This communications gap increases the risks to strategic stability and the potential for inadvertent escalation. This project's goal is to build greater understanding between the United States and China on strategic issues to prepare for or support official discussions. This dialogue project will build upon previous PASCC-sponsored U.S.-China Track 1.5s to achieve a deeper understanding of the issues. Less-official dialogues such as this one, while not a substitution for official dialogues, can be used to help identify and clarify agenda items for official talks as well as delve more deeply into sensitive issues. Expected topics to be addressed include nuclear postures, nonproliferation policy, no first use, mutual vulnerability, missile defense, strategic stability, long-range conventional weapons, and confidence-building measures." This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict; Pacific Forum, CSIS
Cossa, Ralph A.; Twomey, Christopher P.; Glosny, Michael A.
2015-05
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U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue: Phase IX Report
From the Document: "In this meeting, participants on the Chinese side included a mix of active and retired senior PLA [People's Liberation Army] officers, officials from the MFA [Ministry of Foreign Affairs] and Ministry of National Defense (MND), experts from government-run civilian Chinese think tanks, and scholars from Chinese universities. The U.S. delegation included participants from government, including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and National Defense University (NDU); think tanks such as Pacific Forum CSIS [Center for Strategic and International Studies]; and universities such as the University of California-San Diego. It also included observers from the State Department, the Joint Staff, USPACOM [United States Pacific Command], USSTRATCOM [United States Strategic Command], Global Strike Command, and DTRA [Defense Threat Reduction Agency], among others. In total, there were more than 25 American participants. One of the goals of this series of meetings is to create a community of regular participants who develop accumulated learning and the personal trust needed to facilitate a more open discussion. This effort met with much success this year in frank, substantive discussions unhindered by boilerplate debates and the increasingly tense tenor of the overall bilateral relationship." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Twomey, Christopher P.; Glosny, Michael A.; Wueger, Diana . . .
2016-12
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U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue Phase V: 'Connecting Long Term Goals to Contemporary Policy'
"This report summarizes a recently held track II conference among U.S. and Chinese analysts and officials on strategic nuclear issues. This report begins by explaining the history of this series of meetings as well as describing the backgrounds of the participants and format of this session. The substantive discussion that follows is organized thematically rather than strictly following the panel structure from the conference, so as to capture the key points in a more logical and analytical fashion. It begins by highlighting core findings with regard to each side's nuclear policy and strategy and some discussion of their nuclear arsenals. In do doing it particularly emphasizes the perceptions of each side regarding the other's nuclear forces and strategies. Then it summarizes the key points regarding both sides' views of arms control and disarmament policy. A few brief miscellaneous points are discussed before the report concludes with a number of policy recommendations and discussion of potential 'ways forward' for further engagement between the two countries on these issues."
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Glosny, Michael A.; Twomey, Christopher P.
2010
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U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue: Phase VII Report
"In early June, 2012, eight Chinese participants, including high-ranking Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) officers, met with twenty-five Americans (a mix of officials and researchers) to discuss bilateral nuclear issues at an unofficial meeting. This dialogue, funded by DTRA [Defense Threat Reduction Agency], has been held annually for the past seven years. The Chinese delegation was the most official ever received in Hawaii, and the participants actively engaged in the discussions. The delegation included active duty military officers, retired officers, think tank researchers, academic faculty, and a space security expert. Our Chinese institutional co-host from the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association (CACDA) emphasized that these dialogues (in Hawaii and a parallel annual meeting in Beijing) are valued in Beijing and feed into the Track I process on their side both through their Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Ministry of National Defense (MND). The overall tone was positive and substantive. Boilerplate concerns about U.S. policy in the region were kept to a minimum, although China continues to express concerns about U.S. ballistic missile defense (BMD) programs and conventional strike capabilities. China's 'no-first-use' (NFU) of nuclear weapons policy served as backdrop for some of the discussion, constraining engagement with some issues, and illustrating the depth to which that policy shapes even well-connected official perceptions. Chinese participants displayed increasing confidence in their second strike capabilities and reiterated that their view of deterrence requires a very modest number of warheads." Note: This document has been added to the Homeland Security Digital Library in agreement with the Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) as part of the PASCC collection. Permission to download and/or retrieve this resource has been obtained through PASCC.
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.). Center for Contemporary Conflict
Glosny, Michael A.; Twomey, Christopher P.; Jacobs, Ryan
2013-05
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