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Encounters of Aircraft with Volcanic Ash Clouds: A Compilation of Known Incidents, 1953-2009
"Information about reported encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds from 1953 through 2009 has been compiled to document the nature and scope of risks to aviation from volcanic activity. The information, gleaned from a variety of published and other sources, is presented in database and spreadsheet formats; the compilation will be updated as additional encounters occur and as new data and corrections come to light. The effects observed by flight crews and extent of aircraft damage vary greatly among incidents, and each incident in the compilation is rated according to a severity index. Of the 129 reported incidents, 94 incidents are confirmed ash encounters, with 79 of those having various degrees of airframe or engine damage; 20 are low-severity events that involve suspected ash or gas clouds; and 15 have data that are insufficient to assess severity. Twenty-six of the damaging encounters involved significant to very severe damage to engines and (or) airframes, including nine encounters with engine shutdown during flight. The average annual rate of damaging encounters since 1976, when reporting picked up, has been approximately 2 per year. Most of the damaging encounters occurred within 24 hours of the onset of ash production or at distances less than 1,000 kilometers from the source volcanoes. The compilation covers only events of relatively short duration for which aircraft were checked for damage soon thereafter; documenting instances of long-term repeated exposure to ash (or sulfate aerosols) will require further investigation."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Casadevall, Thomas J.; Guffanti, Marianne; Budding, Karin E.
2010
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St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project
This fact sheet provides information on creating hazard maps. "St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2010-01
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Emergency Assessment of Postfire Debris-Flow Hazards for the 2009 Station Fire, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California
"This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 Station fire in Los Angeles County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed for postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flow production from 678 drainage basins within the burned area and to generate maps of areas that may be inundated along the San Gabriel mountain front by the estimated volume of material. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as combined functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 1-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Debris-flow inundation areas are mapped for scenarios where all sediment-retention basins are empty and where the basins are all completely full. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2009-10
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Advanced National Seismic System Northeastern United States (ANSS-NE) Implementation Plan
"The purpose of the implementation plan, contained herein, is to identify and prioritize goals and to propose specific actions and activities to achieve these goals. These actions will ultimately improve efforts to mitigate the effects of earthquakes, especially seriously damaging earthquakes, in the northeast U.S. The plan explains from the stakeholders' point of view what the important earthquake hazards and monitoring issues are for the next 5 years. The plan coordinates the activities of a number of different seismological research and monitoring centers at the federal and local levels (including internationally), as well as those of a large and diverse set of states and urban areas. The plan also addresses what priorities should be assigned to proposed [Advanced National Seismic System Northeastern United States] (ANSS-NE) activities, and identifies potential funding sources."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Fratto, Edward S.
2009-09-15
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Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern
"Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geo¬logical Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assess¬ment, several of which are described here."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
2009-08
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Earthquake Information Products and Tools from the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS)
"This Fact Sheet provides a brief description of a series of new or updated post-earthquake tools and products. The focus is on products specifically aimed at providing situational awareness in the period immediately following significant earthquake events."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2009-07
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California Wildfires 2007 - 2008
"During 2007 and 2008 USNORTHCOM [United States Northern Command] responded to requests for assistance to fight wildfires in the state of California. While the command can expect requests for wildland firefighting support from across the United States climatic conditions, residential expansion, and the challenges of terrain resulted in the necessity of Department of Defense support going to California. This study is an expanded chronology of the daily requests, responses, and actions made and taken during that time. It is intended as a means to orient new members of the command to the unique demands and requirements of USNORTHCOM's mission and to refresh the memories of those who were present. This is not intended as an after action review, nor a lessons learned product, or a best practices listing. Those have been done by others and several are cited in the footnotes."
North American Aerospace Defense Command; United States. Air Mobility Command; United States. Forest Service . . .
2009-04
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Flood of April 2007 and Flood-Frequency Estimates at Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Western Connecticut
"The study area in western Connecticut-primarily Fairfield and Litchfield Counties--includes 28 active streamflow-gaging stations for reporting peak stages and peak discharges (fig. 1 and table 1). The data collected and analyzed from this storm enhance the scientific understanding of flood characteristics and are critical for reducing deaths, injuries, and property damages from floods. Current estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods provide key information for updating Flood Insurance Studies, mitigating losses associated with future floods, and designing bridges and culverts. This report includes information on rainfall that led to the flooding, peak stages and peak discharges for the April 2007 flood for rivers with active streamflow-gaging stations, and updated flood-frequency estimates for streamflow-gaging stations in western Connecticut. Also included in this report is a comparison of flood-frequency estimates using (1) reported data through water year 2007 (ending September 30, 2007) to (2) flood-frequency estimates in community Flood Insurance Studies prepared for communities by FEMA [Federal Emergency Management Agency]. The changes in flood stages at the stations attributed to changes in the recurrence interval values are described."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Ahearn, Elizabeth A.
2009
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Alaska Volcano Observatory- Expanded Monitoring of Volcanoes Yields Results
"Recent explosive eruptions at some of Alaska's 52 historically active volcanoes have significantly affected air traffic over the North Pacific, as well as Alaska's oil, power, and fishing industries and local communities. Since its founding in the late 1980s, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has installed new monitoring networks and used satellite data to track activity at Alaska's volcanoes, providing timely warnings and monitoring of frequent eruptions to the aviation industry and the general public. To minimize impacts from future eruptions, scientists at AVO continue to assess volcano hazards and to expand monitoring networks."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2009
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Flood of April 2007 in Southern Maine
"Up to 8.5 inches of rain fell from April 15 through 18, 2007, in southern Maine. The rain-in combination with up to an inch of water from snowmelt-resulted in extensive flooding. York County, Maine, was declared a presidential disaster area following the event. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), determined peak streamflows and recurrence intervals at 24 locations and peak water-surface elevations at 63 sites following the April 2007 flood. Peak streamflows were determined with data from continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations where available and through hydraulic models where station data were not available. The flood resulted in peak streamflows with recurrence intervals greater than 100 years throughout most of York County, and recurrence intervals up to 50 years in Cumberland County. Peak flows for selected recurrence intervals varied from less than 10 percent to greater than 100 percent different than those in the current FEMA flood-insurance studies due to additional data or newer regression equations. Water-surface elevations observed during the April 2007 flood were bracketed by elevation profiles in FEMA flood-insurance studies with the same recurrence intervals as the recurrence intervals bracketing the observed peak streamflows at seven sites, with higher elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at six sites, and with lower elevation-profile recurrence intervals than streamflow recurrence intervals at one site."
United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency; United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Lombard, Pamela J.
2009
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Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective
"Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation's water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change."
United States. Bureau of Reclamation; Geological Survey (U.S.); United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . . .
Olsen, J. Rolf; Kiang, Julie E.; Brekke, Levi D.
2009
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Regional Assessment of Tsunami Potential in the Gulf of Mexico: Report to the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program
From the Executive Summary: "The following summary is based on our observations and modeling results: (1) There is sufficient evidence to consider submarine landslides in the Gulf of Mexico as a present-day tsunami hazard, as there are clear observations of large landslides along the continental margin of the gulf; (2) Three geologic landslide provinces are de fined in the Gulf of Mexico: Northwest Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi Canyon and fan, and Florida/Campeche Margin; (3) Parameters for the maximum credible submarine landslide were determined for each of the provinces, except for the Florida/Campeche Margin where data are unavailable; […] (4) Mobility analysis suggests that constitutive parameters of the East Breaks landslide in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico are similar to the parameters for other landslides that have recently been analyzed (Palos Verdes and Currituck); (5) The largest landslides are found in the submarine canyon and fan provinces extending from present (Mississippi) and former larger rivers that emptied into the Gulf of Mexico; […] (6) Hydrodynamic modeling of potential maximum tsunamis from landslide sources was conducted for the East Breaks slide (south Texas) and for hypothetical slides along the Florida/Campeche margin. Conservative initial conditions related to tsunami generation efficiency, were used; […] (7) It is likely that seismic seiche waves resulting from the 1964 Gulf of Alaska earthquake are nearly the highest that ca n be generated owing to a predominantly continental ray path for seismic surface waves from Alaska to the Gulf Coast; (8) There are no significant earthquake sources within the Gulf of Mexico that are likely to generate tsunamis, despite recent seismic activity in the area."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
ten Brink, Uri; Twichell, David C.; Lynett, Patrick J. . . .
2009?
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Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide
"Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J. (David Jay); Jaiswal, Kishor . . .
2009
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Surveillance Plan for the Early Detection of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus in Migratory Birds in the United States: Surveillance Year 2009
"This Surveillance Plan (Plan) describes plans for conducting surveillance of wild birds in the United States and its Territories and Freely-Associated States to provide for early detection of the introduction of the H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) subtype of the influenza A virus by migratory birds during the 2009 surveillance year, spanning the period of April 1, 2009 -- March 31, 2010. The Plan represents a continuation of surveillance efforts begun in 2006 under the Interagency Strategic Plan for the Early Detection of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Wild Migratory Birds (U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of the Interior, 2006). The Plan sets forth sampling plans by: region, target species or species groups to be sampled, locations of sampling, sample sizes, and sampling approaches and methods. This Plan will be reviewed annually and modified as appropriate for subsequent surveillance years based on evaluation of information from previous years of surveillance, changing patterns and threats of H5N1 HPAI, and changes in funding availability for avian influenza surveillance. Specific sampling strategies will be developed accordingly within each of six regions, defined here as Alaska, Hawaiian/Pacific Islands, Lower Pacific Flyway (Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, Arizona), Central Flyway, Mississippi Flyway, and Atlantic Flyway."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Brand, Christopher J.
2009
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Historical Seismicity in the South San Francisco Bay Region
In this report, "Locations (intensity centers) and moment magnitude M for 24 earthquakes (1858-1911) in the southern San Francisco Bay area are estimated from Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments. The uncertainties in location and M are generally large because there are few MMI assignments available. Preferred locations are selected to be consistent with a simple model for seismic activity on the central and southern Calaveras fault. Significant seismic activity can be explained by repetitive failure of the same fault areas in nearly identical earthquakes. Significant earthquake activity occurred on both east- and west-Bay faults in the ten or so years before the 1868 east- Bay earthquake and before the 1906 and 1989 west-Bay earthquakes." This document contains numerous maps.
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Bakun, W. H. (William H.)
2009
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Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008
"The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.
2009
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Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management
"This report describes the procedure that has been adopted as a first pass at the development of a global building inventory database. The inventory development consists of estimates of the fractions of building types observed in each country, their functional use, and average day and night occupancy. Various data sources exist that provide building-specific information at a local or regional level with varying degrees of confidence; however, few data sources have been found to be relevant, consistent, and useful to our needs on a global scale. The inventory development methodology presented in this report not only compiles data from various sources but also allows us to rate and select the best source based on its vintage and quality. The building-specific inventory distribution developed is necessary for the casualty estimation methodology used for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J. (David Jay)
2008-10
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U.S. States and Territories National Tsunami Hazard Assessment: Historical Record and Sources for Waves
"This report is intended to be an overview of the hazard down to the State level, not a detailed description of the tsunami hazard at a particular locality." The goal of this document is to "provide a national qualitative assessment of the United States tsunami hazard at a regional level by examining the record of historical tsunamis and earthquakes, the predominant cause of tsunamis, at the State and territory level." This report is "focused on the qualitative, relative ranking of American coastlines to tsunami hazards, it is instructive to examine how detailed science and emergency management practices can greatly improve the country's ability to prepare for future tsunamis. [...] This document will be updated periodically as new research improves our ability to assess the U.S. tsunami hazard."
United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Dunbar, Paula K.; Weaver, Craig S.
2008-08
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2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps: Fact Sheet
"The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion." This fact sheet describes the update process and lists major changes to the maps.
Geological Survey (U.S.)
2008-04
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Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps
"The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States." This document contains numerous maps and tables.
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, S. C.
2008
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Flood of April 2007 in New Hampshire
"Major flooding in central and southern New Hampshire (fig. 1) from April 16 to 18, 2007, resulted in substantial damage to public and personal property. Homes and roads were damaged, and numerous residential areas were evacuated for several days. As a result of the widespread damage caused by the flooding, President George W. Bush issued a Presidential Disaster Declaration on April 27, 2007, for the counties of Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford in New HampshireBelknap County in New Hampshire was added to the disaster declaration on May 10, 2007 (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2007). In response to the disaster declaration, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), measured or computed flood characteristics at 57 streamgages and 4 ungaged locations within and adjacent to the disaster areas. The April 2007 flood is documented in this report through the presentation of flood data collected at 46 active and 11 discontinued streamgages and 4 ungaged locations in central and southern New Hampshire. The flood data include peak-stage data, peak-discharge data, flow-frequency curves, and estimates of flood-recurrence intervals at each streamgage. In addition, data were compiled from 20 town/city-wide and 3 county-wide FEMA flood-insurance studies for comparison purposes. The active streamgages include 37 operated by the USGS, 7 operated by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES), and 2 operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). All 11 discontinued streamgages previously had been operated by the USGS. A description of each streamgage site included in this investigation is provided in table 1 (in back of report)."
United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency; United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Flynn, Robert H.
2008
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2005 Volcanic Activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: Summary of Events and Response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory
"The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptive activity or suspected volcanic activity at or near 16 volcanoes in Alaska during 2005, including the high profile precursory activity associated with the 2005--06 eruption of Augustine Volcano. AVO continues to participate in distributing information about eruptive activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and in the Kurile Islands of the Russian Far East, in conjunction with the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) and the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT), respectively. In 2005, AVO helped broadcast alerts about activity at 8 Russian volcanoes. The most serious hazard posed from volcanic eruptions in Alaska, Kamchatka, or the Kurile Islands is the placement of ash into the atmosphere at altitudes traversed by jet aircraft along the North Pacific and Russian Trans East air routes. AVO, KVERT, and SVERT work collaboratively with the National Weather Service, Federal Aviation Administration, and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers to provide timely warnings of volcanic eruptions and the production and movement of ash clouds."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
McGimsey, Robert G.; Neal, Christina, 1959-; Dixon, James P. (James Patrick), 1962-
2008
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Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2006
"The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Nathenson, Manuel
2008
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Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Gareloi Volcano, Gareloi Island, Alaska
"Gareloi Volcano (178.794˚W and 51.790˚N) is located on Gareloi Island in the Delarof Islands group of the Aleutian Islands, about 2,000 kilometers west-southwest of Anchorage and about 150 kilometers west of Adak, the westernmost community in Alaska (fig. 1). This small (about 8�-10 kilometer) volcano has been one of the most active in the Aleutians since its discovery by the Bering expedition in the 1740s, though because of its remote location, observations have been scant and many smaller eruptions may have gone unrecorded. Eruptions of Gareloi commonly produce ash clouds and lava flows. Scars on the flanks of the volcano and debris-avalanche deposits on the adjacent seafloor indicate that the volcano has produced large landslides in the past, possibly causing tsunamis. Such events are infrequent, occurring at most every few thousand years. The primary hazard from Gareloi is airborne clouds of ash that could affect aircraft. In this report, we summarize and describe the major volcanic hazards associated with Gareloi."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Coombs, Michelle L. (Michelle Lynn); McGimsey, Robert G.; Browne, Brandon Lanquist
2008
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Hayward Fault-Is It Due for a Repeat of the Powerful 1868 Earthquake?
"On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region. Although the region was then sparsely populated, this quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California's history. Recent studies show that such powerful Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe this fault as a tectonic time bomb, due anytime for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Because such a quake could cause hundreds of deaths, leave thousands homeless, and devastate the region's economy, the USGS and other organizations are working together with new urgency to help prepare Bay Area communities for this certain future quake."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2008
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Forecasting California's Earthquakes-What Can We Expect in the Next 30 Years?
"In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%-such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California's future."
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
2008
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Climate Simulation and Flood Risk Analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota
"The purpose of this report is to describe climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008--2040 for Devils Lake, North Dakota. In the report, previously published estimates of monthly precipitation, evaporation, and inflow data for Devils Lake for 1950--99 are extended to include data for 2000--2006, the data are used to recalibrate the Devils Lake stochastic simulation model, and new estimates of future flood risk for Devils Lake and Stump Lake are provided. Recent research on long-term regional climate variability will be used to provide a sound scientific basis for the climatic assumptions used to generate potential future lake levels and estimate future flood risk. The report can be used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE), and other agencies for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as levee raises, road raises, or other infrastructure improvements."
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Vecchia, Aldo V.
2008
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Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake
"The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business establishments, or 44 percent of all establishments, would experience Instrumental Intensities between VII (7) and X (10). This represents more than 4 million employees earning over $45 billion in quarterly payroll. Over 57,000 of these establishments, employing over 1 million employees earning over $10 billion in quarterly payroll, would experience Instrumental Intensities of IX (9) or X (10). Based upon absolute counts and percentages, the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Super Sector and the Manufacturing Super Sector are estimated to have the greatest exposure and sensitivity respectively. The Information and the Natural Resources and Mining Super Sectors are estimated to be the least impacted. Areas estimated to experience an Instrumental Intensity of X (10) account for approximately 3 percent of the region's labor market." Figures (1-15) and Tables (1-7) illustrate industry data and effects on payroll of the labor market Southern California.
Geological Survey (U.S.); United States. Department of the Interior
Wein, Anne M.; Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, D. J. (David J.)
2008
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Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2000-2010
"This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change-births, deaths, and migration-to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. These baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 [Magnitude 7.8] earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital." Figures (1-7) illustrate migration statistics by county in Southern California.
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Hester, D. J. (David J.); Sherrouse, Benson C.
2008
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Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake
This report for the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program, in conjunction with the magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut Scenario, examines the potential impact on small businesses in Southern California if an earthquake were to occur. From the introduction: "The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region (Jones and others, 2008). This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses." Figures (1-7) and Tables (1-5) illustrate an earthquake's impact on employees in designated establishments throughout Southern California.
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Wein, Anne M.; Hester, D. J. (David J.); Sherrouse, Benson C.
2008
