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Expected Warning Times from the ShakeAlert® Earthquake Early Warning System for Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest
From the Abstract: "The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia subduction zone. Many locations in the Pacific Northwest are expected to experience shaking from shallow crustal earthquakes (similar to those in California), earthquakes that occur deep within the subducted slab, and large megathrust earthquakes that occur primarily offshore. The different geometries and maximum magnitudes associated with these types of earthquakes lead to a range of warning times that are possible between when the initial ShakeAlert Message is issued and when a user experiences strong shaking. After an earthquake begins, the strategy of the ShakeAlert system for public alerting is to warn people who are located close enough to the fault that the system estimates they will experience at least weak to moderate shaking. By alerting the public at these low levels of expected shaking, it is possible to provide sufficient warning times for some users to take protective actions before strong shaking begins. In this study, we present an analysis of past ShakeAlert Messages as well as simulations of historical earthquakes and potential future Cascadia earthquakes to quantify the range of warning times that users who experience strong or worse shaking are likely to receive."
Geological Survey (U.S.); United States. Department of the Interior
McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Deborah E.; Frankel, Arthur D. . . .
2021-03-24
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Earthquake Forewarning in the Cascadia Region
"This report, prepared for the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (NEPEC), is intended as a step toward improving communications about earthquake hazards between information providers and users who coordinate emergency-response activities in the Cascadia region of the Pacific Northwest. NEPEC charged a subcommittee of scientists with writing this report about forewarnings of increased probabilities of a damaging earthquake. We begin by clarifying some terminology; a 'prediction' refers to a deterministic statement that a particular future earthquake will or will not occur. In contrast to the 0- or 100-percent likelihood of a deterministic prediction, a 'forecast' describes the probability of an earthquake occurring, which may range from >0 to
Geological Survey (U.S.)
Gomberg, Joan S., 1957-; Atwater, Brian F.; Beeler, Nicholas . . .
2015
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Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps
"The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States." This document contains numerous maps and tables.
United States. Department of the Interior; Geological Survey (U.S.)
Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, S. C.
2008
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