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How Strongly Are Local Economies Tied to COVID-19?
From the Document: "The relationship between economic activity and local COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] conditions--infections and deaths--has changed over time. While activity was strongly tied to local virus conditions during the first six to nine months of the pandemic, they decoupled in late 2020 through the first half of 2021. This link strengthened again in the third quarter of 2021, particularly for highly vaccinated counties. One possible interpretation of this restrengthening is that areas with high vaccination rates have heightened virus risk aversion and hence high sensitivity to changes in local virus conditions."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Tarasewicz, Samuel R.; Wilson, Daniel J.
2021-11-15
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UI Generosity and Job Acceptance: Effects of the 2020 CARES Act
From the Abstract: "To provide relief to the U.S. labor market following the onset of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic, the CARES [Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security] Act granted an extra $600 per week in UI [Unemployment Insurance] benefit payments from late March through July 2020. This unprecedented increase in UI generosity raised concern that UI recipients would be largely unwilling to accept job offers, slowing the labor market recovery. Job acceptance decisions weigh the value of a job against remaining unemployed. A reservation level of benefit payments exists in this dynamic decision problem at which an individual is indifferent between accepting and refusing an offer. This reservation benefit is a simple statistic summarizing the decision problem conditional on the perceived state of the labor market and the weeks of Unemployment Insurance (UI) compensation remaining. Estimating the reservation benefit for a wide range of US workers suggests few would turn down an offer to return to work at the previous wage under the CARES Act expanded UI payments. Direct empirical analysis of labor force transitions using matched Current Population Survey (CPS) data, linked to annual earning records from the CPS income supplement to form UI replacement rates, shows moderate disincentive effects of the $600 supplemental payments on job finding rates; this empirical framework also suggests small effects of the $300 weekly UI supplement available during 2021."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2021-05-17
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Weather, Social Distancing, and the Spread of COVID-19
From the Abstract: "Using high-frequency panel data for U.S. counties, I estimate the full dynamic response of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] cases and deaths to exogenous movements in mobility and weather. I find several important results. First, holding mobility fixed, temperature is found to have a negative and significant effect on COVID-19 cases from 1 to 8 weeks ahead and on deaths from 2 to 8 weeks ahead. Second, holding weather fixed, mobility is found to have a large positive effect on subsequent growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths. The impact on cases becomes significant 3 to 4 weeks ahead and continues through 8 to 10 weeks ahead. The impact on deaths becomes significant around 4 weeks ahead and persists for at least 10 weeks. Third, I find that the deleterious effects of mobility on COVID-19 outcomes are far greater when the local virus transmission rate is above one - evidence supportive of public health policies aiming to reduce mobility specifically in places experiencing high transmission rates while relaxing restrictions elsewhere. Fourth, I find that the dynamic effects of mobility on cases are generally similar across counties, but the effects on deaths are higher for counties with older populations and, surprisingly, counties with lower black or hispanic population shares. Lastly, I find that while the marginal impact of mobility changes has been stable over recent weeks for cases, it has come down for deaths."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Wilson, Daniel J.
2020-07-22
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Replicating and Projecting the Path of COVID-19 with a Model-Implied Reproduction Number
From the Abstract: "We demonstrate a methodology for replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] using a simple epidemiology model. We fit the model to daily data on the number of infected cases in China, Italy, the United States, and Brazil. These four countries can be viewed as representing different stages, from later to earlier, of a COVID-19 epidemic cycle. We solve for a model-implied effective reproduction number Rt each day so that the model closely replicates the daily number of currently infected cases in each country. For out-of-sample projections, we fit a behavioral function to the in-sample data that allows for the endogenous response of Rt to movements in the lagged number of infected cases. We show that declines in measures of population mobility tend to precede declines in the model-implied reproduction numbers for each country. This pattern suggests that mandatory and voluntary stay-at-home behavior and social distancing during the early stages of the epidemic worked to reduce the effective reproduction number and mitigate the spread of COVID-19."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Buckman, Shelby R.; Glick, Reuven; Lansing, Kevin J. . . .
2020-07-20
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COVID-19 and CO2
From the Document: "One potential side effect from the rapid decline of global economic activity since the worldwide pandemic is a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. Historically, CO2 [carbon dioxide] emissions rise and fall in tandem with economic activity in the short run. Since the industries most affected by the downturn also produce the most CO2, emissions could drop more than output this time around. However, without substantial and sustained changes in energy sources and efficiency, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere--the relevant factor causing climate change--will continue on its upward trajectory."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Hale, Galina; Leduc, Sylvain, 1969-
2020-07-06
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Unequal Impact of COVID-19: Why Education Matters
From the Document: "Since COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] hit the United States, more than 20 million American workers have become unemployed and countless others have left the labor force altogether. While the labor market disruptions have affected workers in a wide set of industries and occupations, those without a college degree have experienced the most severe impact. Addressing gaps in educational attainment will be important to creating better economic resiliency for individuals against future shocks."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Daly, Mary C.; Buckman, Shelby R.; Seitelman, Lily M.
2020-06-29
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We Can't Afford Not To
From the Document: "Three crises--health, economic, and social--are converging into one difficult moment in American history. Everyone has been affected, but the highest costs are falling on those least prepared to bear them. The path forward will require investments in 'opportunity infrastructure' that maximize individual potential, reduce inequities, and lay the foundation for long-term economic growth. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the National Press Club, Washington, DC, on Monday, June 15."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Daly, Mary C.
2020-06-15
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Market Assessment of COVID-19
From the Document: "News about the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] public health crisis has affected asset prices to varying degrees across sectors of the U.S. economy. Stocks in the utilities, real estate, and energy sectors initially suffered the worst sector-specific shocks, while the information technology, healthcare, and telecommunications sectors fared relatively better. Businesses with higher financial leverage saw larger declines in their valuations. A simultaneous repricing of credit derivatives suggests concerns about insolvency contributed to the valuation declines. Although some stocks are recovering from the initial lows, significant differences across sectors remain."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Kwan, Simon H.; Mertens, Thomas
2020-05-28
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COVID-19 Fiscal Multiplier: Lessons from the Great Recession
From the Document: "The United States enacted a series of fiscal relief and stimulus bills in recent weeks, centered around the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The current fiscal response shares key similarities to the fiscal stimulus enacted during the Great Recession. Research over the past 10 years on the macroeconomic impact of that stimulus thus has important implications for the current fiscal response. The results point to a large potential impact on GDP [gross domestic product]."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Wilson, Daniel J.
2020-05-26
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Mental Health Implications of COVID-19 on Low-Income Communities and Communities of Color
From the Article: "Prior to the pandemic, low-income communities and communities of color were already more likely to experience risk factors for poor mental health, such as low socioeconomic status and substandard living conditions, which are rooted in historic structural inequities. As we explored in a past issue of 'Community Development Innovation Review', there are profound connections between poverty, place, and poor mental health which can have important impacts on economic outcomes such as educational attainment and labor force attachment. These issues are more critical than ever, and as low-income communities and communities of color continue to be disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], it is vital that we consider mental health promotion as part of a comprehensive approach to equitable economic recovery."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Choi, Laura
2020-05-21
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Unemployment Crisis After the Onset of COVID-19
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has upended the U.S. labor market, with massive job losses and a spike in unemployment to its highest level since the Great Depression. How long unemployment will remain at crisis levels is highly uncertain and will depend on the speed and success of coronavirus containment measures. Historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique aspects of the coronavirus economy, can help in assessing potential paths of unemployment. Unless hiring rises to unprecedented levels, unemployment could remain severely elevated well into next year."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2020-05-18
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Coronavirus and the Risk of Deflation
From the Document: "The pandemic caused by COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] represents an unprecedented negative shock to the global economy that is likely to severely depress economic activity in the near term. Could the crisis also put substantial downward pressure on price inflation? One way to assess the potential risk to the inflation outlook is by analyzing prices of standard and inflation-indexed government bonds. The probability of declining price levels--or deflation--among four major countries within the next year indicates that the perceived risk remains muted, despite the recent economic turmoil."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Christensen, Jens H.E.; Gamble, James M., IV; Zhu, Simon
2020-05-11
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Can Pandemic-Induced Job Uncertainty Stimulate Automation?
From the Abstract: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has raised concerns about the future of work. The pandemic may become recurrent, necessitating repeated adoptions of social distancing measures (voluntary or mandatory), creating substantial uncertainty about worker productivity. But robots are not susceptible to the virus. Thus, pandemic-induced job uncertainty may boost the incentive for automation. However, elevated uncertainty also reduces aggregate demand and reduces the value of new investment in automation. We assess the importance of automation in driving business cycle dynamics following an increase in job uncertainty in a quantitative New Keynesian DSGE [dynamic stochastic general equilibrium] framework. We find that, all else being equal, job uncertainty does stimulate automation, and increased automation helps mitigate the negative impact of uncertainty on aggregate demand."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Leduc, Sylvain, 1969-; Liu, Zheng
2020-05-07
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Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy
From the Abstract: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has upended the U.S. economy and labor market. We assess the initial spike in unemployment due to the virus response and possible paths for the official unemployment rate through 2021. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the path for measured unemployment, depending on the path of the virus and containment measures and their impact on reported job search activity. We assess potential unemployment paths based on historical patterns of monthly flows in and out of unemployment, adjusted for unique features of the virus economy. The possible paths vary widely, but absent hiring activity on an unprecedented scale, unemployment could remain in double-digits into 2021. We also find that the increase in measured unemployment could be meaningfully tempered by a substantial reduction in labor force participation."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 1980-; Valletta, Robert G.
2020-05-05
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Historical Patterns Around Financial Crises
From the Document: "Long-run historical data for advanced economies provide evidence to help policymakers understand specific conditions that typically lead up to financial crises. Recent research finds that rapid growth in the top income share and prolonged low labor productivity growth are robust predictors of crises. Moreover, if crises are preceded by these developments, then the subsequent recoveries are slower. This recent empirical evidence suggests that financial crises are not simply random events but are typically preceded by a prolonged buildup of macrofinancial imbalances."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Paul, Pascal, 1987-; Pedtke, Joseph H.
2020-05-04
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Impacts of COVID-19 on Nonprofits in the Western United States
From the Document: "Nonprofit organizations have always been a critical resource in communities, as they deliver key services and promote policies that support the well-being and economic resilience of low-income people and people of color. The role of nonprofits has become even more critical in the current pandemic as the spread of the coronavirus and the many efforts to slow it are impacting communities around the nation. Current conditions, however, are placing significant strain on the ability of nonprofits to serve communities. In order to better understand the particular experiences of nonprofit organizations, this report utilizes recent survey data collected by the Federal Reserve System and the Board of Governors to assess levels of disruption communities and nonprofits were facing, impacts on communities they serve and on the nonprofit organizations themselves, and how long it will take them to bounce back."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Choi, Laura; Mattiuzzi, Elizabeth; Shrimali, Bina
2020-05
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Mitigating COVID-19 Effects with Conventional Monetary Policy
From the Document: "The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate in response to the effects of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. The full impact of the pandemic on the economy is still uncertain and depends on many factors. Analysis suggests that allowing the federal funds rate to fall fast will help the economy cope with the aftermath of COVID-19. In particular, the limited policy space due to the effective lower bound of the federal funds rate before the pandemic reinforces rather than offsets the need for a rapid funds rate decline."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Cúrdia, Vasco
2020-04-13
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What are Banks Doing to Address the Impacts of COVID-19 on LMI Communities? 'Early Approaches to Addressing the Crisis'
From the Article: "Banks play a key role in helping to alleviate the economic impacts of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] and have been encouraged to leverage their Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) activities in their response. [...] For this research brief, we conducted semi-structured interviews with community development officers across financial institutions in the Twelfth Federal Reserve District, collected additional responses via email, and examined a subset of online resources posted by banks to get a pulse on the early response of CRA-motivated institutions. We asked about changes to lending, services, and investments, whether the recent CRA guidance had spurred any changes to the ways banks were operating, how banks were prioritizing growing need, and ways banks were being responsive to evolving community conditions."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Shrimali, Bina
2020-04-07
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News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic is causing severe disruptions to daily life and economic activity. Reliable assessments of the economic fallout in this rapidly evolving situation require timely data. Existing sentiment indexes are useful indicators of current and future spending but are only available with a lag or have a short history. A new Daily News Sentiment Index provides a way to measure sentiment in real time from 1980 to today. Compared with survey-based measures of consumer sentiment, this index shows an earlier and more pronounced drop in sentiment in recent weeks."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Buckman, Shelby R.; Shapiro, Adam Hale; Sudhof, Moritz . . .
2020-04-06
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Uncertainty Channel of the Coronavirus
From the Document: "The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], has severely disrupted economic activity through various supply and demand channels. The pandemic can also have pervasive economic impact by raising uncertainty. In the past, sudden and outsized spikes in uncertainty have led to large and protracted increases in unemployment and declines in inflation. These effects are similar to those resulting from declines in aggregate demand. Monetary policy accommodation, such as interest rate cuts, can help cushion the economy from such uncertainty shocks."
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Leduc, Sylvain, 1969-; Liu, Zheng
2020-03-30
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