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• U.S. Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy: Frequently Asked Questions [January 30, 2015]

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  "Congress plays a major role in U.S. trade policy through its legislative and oversight authority. There are a number of major trade issues that are currently the focus of Congress. For example, bills were introduced in the 113th Congress to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and legislative action on these issues could be forthcoming in the 114th Congress. Additionally, Congress has been involved with proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) involving the United States and 11 other countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union (EU). Also of interest to Congress are current plurilateral negotiations for a Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) and a new multilateral Information Technology (ITA) agreement in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trade and investment policies of major U.S. trading partners (such as China), especially when they are deemed harmful to U.S. economic interests, are also of continued concern to Congress. Recent improved U.S. relations with Cuba have resulted in the introduction of several bills to boost bilateral commercial ties. The costs and benefits of trade to the U.S. economy, firms, workers, and constituents, and the future direction of U.S. trade policy, are the subject of ongoing debates in Congress."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Morrison, Wayne M.; Bolle, Mary Jane; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947- . . .

  2015-01-30
• Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [January 28, 2015]

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  "Bitcoin first appeared in January 2009, the creation of a computer programmer using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. His invention is an open-source (its controlling computer code is open to public view), peer-to-peer (transactions do not require a third-party intermediary such as PayPal or Visa) digital currency (being electronic with no physical manifestation). The Bitcoin system is private, with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is completely decentralized, with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third-party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer), but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason, Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems, such as credit cards, and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. […] In addition, Bitcoin raises a number of legal and regulatory concerns, including its potential for facilitating money laundering, its treatment under federal securities law, and its status in the regulation of foreign exchange trading."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

  2015-01-28
• What Is the Current State of the Economic Recovery? [December 1, 2014]

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  This report briefly outlines the slow growth and recovery of the U.S. economy following the end of the 2007-2009 recession. The report compares this recovery to previous recoveries by stating: "From the recession's end in mid-2009 through the third quarter of 2014, as measured by real GDP growth (i.e., gross domestic product adjusted for inflation), the economy's average annual rate of growth has been about 2.2%, compared to the 4.5% pace typical of previous post-WWII recoveries. After a temporary setback in the first quarter of 2014, growth rebounded above the recovery's slow average pace over the next two quarters with gains of 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. The current recovery has taken longer than the 5-year average of previous recoveries. After 5½ years it is still short of completion. Through mid-2014, the economy's output gap (i.e., the shortfall of actual output below the economy's estimated potential) was 3.5%, much improved from the 7.5% output gap during the recession, but well short of the historical average of about 0.5%." This report also discusses some sources of the U.S. economy's growth to include: personal consumption spending, investment spending, and exports.

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2014-12-01
• U.S. Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy: Frequently Asked Questions [November 17, 2014]

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  "Congress plays a major role in U.S. trade policy through its legislative and oversight authority. There are a number of major trade issues that are currently the focus of Congress. For example, bills were introduced in the 113th Congress to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank. Congress has also been involved with proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) involving the United States and 11 other countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union (EU). Also of interest to Congress are current plurilateral negotiations for a Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) and a new multilateral Information Technology (ITA) agreement in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trade and investment policies of major U.S. trading partners (such as China), especially when they are deemed harmful to U.S. economic interests, are also of continued concern to Congress. Events in the Ukraine have prompted U.S. trade sanctions against Russia. The costs and benefits of trade to the U.S. economy, firms, workers, and constituents, and the future direction of U.S. trade policy, are hotly debated topics in Congress. This report provides information and context for these and many other trade topics. It is intended to assist Members and staff who may be new to trade issues. The report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts; U.S. trade performance; formulation of U.S. trade policy; and trade and investment issues. Additional suggested readings are provided in an appendix."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Villarreal, M. Angeles; Jones, Vivian Catherine; Jackson, James K., 1949- . . .

  2014-11-17
• Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [July 15, 2014]

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  "Bitcoin first appeared in January 2009, the creation of a computer programmer using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. His invention is an open source (its controlling computer code is open to public view), peer to peer (transactions do not require a third-party intermediary such as PayPal or Visa), digital currency (being electronic with no physical manifestation). The Bitcoin system is private, but with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is 'completely decentralized', with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer) but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems such as credit cards and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. Congress is interested in Bitcoin because of concerns about its use in illegal money transfers, concerns about its effect on the ability of the Federal Reserve to meet its objectives (of stable prices, maximum employment, and financial stability), and concerns about the protection of consumers and investors who might use it."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

  2014-07-15
• Commemorations in Congress: Options for Honoring Individuals, Groups, and Events [May 9, 2014]

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  "Since its inception, Congress has used commemorative legislation to express public gratitude for distinguished contributions; dramatize the virtues of individuals, groups, and causes; and perpetuate the remembrance of significant events. During the past two centuries, commemoratives have become an integral part of the American political tradition. They have been used to authorize the minting of commemorative coins and Congressional Gold Medals; fund monuments and memorials; create federal holidays; establish commissions to celebrate important anniversaries; and name public works, scholarships, endowments, fellowships, and historic sites. Current congressional practice for commemoratives includes a House Rule (Rule XII, clause 5, initially adopted during the 104th Congress (1995-1996)) that precludes the introduction or consideration of legislation that commemorates 'any remembrance, celebration, or recognition for any purpose through the designation of a special period of time.' Such a rule does not exist in the Senate. This change to House Rules, together with the passage of more restrictive laws, rules, and procedures governing the enactment of several other types of commemoratives, has substantially reduced the time Congress spends considering and adopting such measures. This report summarizes the evolution of commemorative legislation as well as the laws, rules, and procedures that have been adopted to control the types of commemoratives considered and enacted."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Straus, Jacob R.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Glassman, Matthew . . .

  2014-05-09
• Commemorations in Congress: Options for Honoring Individuals, Groups, and Events [April 22, 2015]

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  "Since its inception, Congress has used commemorative legislation to express public gratitude for distinguished contributions; dramatize the virtues of individuals, groups, and causes; and perpetuate the remembrance of significant events. During the past two centuries, commemoratives have become an integral part of the American political tradition. They have been used to authorize the minting of commemorative coins and Congressional Gold Medals; fund monuments and memorials; create federal holidays; establish commissions to celebrate important anniversaries; and name public works, scholarships, endowments, fellowships, and historic sites. Current congressional practice for commemoratives includes a House Rule (Rule XII, clause 5, initially adopted during the 104th Congress (1995-1996)) that precludes the introduction or consideration of legislation that commemorates 'any remembrance, celebration, or recognition for any purpose through the designation of a special period of time.' Such a rule does not exist in the Senate. This change to House Rules, together with the passage of more restrictive laws, rules, and procedures governing the enactment of several other types of commemoratives, has substantially reduced the time Congress spends considering and adopting such measures."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Straus, Jacob R.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Glassman, Matthew . . .

  2014-04-22
• Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class [March 10, 2014]

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  "After briefly analyzing the distribution of household money income in 2012, the report attempts to put the term 'middle class' into greater perspective. The first key point of the report is that, although there are a variety of ways to describe the income distribution, all show that income is concentrated among high-income households. […] The second major point is that there is no official government definition of who belongs to the middle class, and the term means different things to different people. The middle class may refer to a group with a common point of view or to those having similar incomes, for example. Third, absolute income appears to partly determine who belongs to the middle class. […] Last, relative income may also be a defining characteristic of the middle class. In other words, the middle class appears to identify itself relative to the income of a reference group (e.g., their neighbors or coworkers)."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2014-03-10
• Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [January 8, 2014]

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  "The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2014-01-08
• Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [December 20, 2013]

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  "The Bitcoin system is private, but with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is 'completely decentralized', with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer) but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems such as credit cards and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. Congress is interested in Bitcoin because of concerns about its use in illegal money transfers, concerns about its effect on the ability of the Federal Reserve to meet its objectives (of stable prices, maximum employment, and financial stability), and concerns about the protection of consumers and investors who might use it. […] Bitcoin also raises a number of legal and regulatory concerns including its potential for facilitating money laundering, its treatment under federal securities law, and its status in the regulation of foreign exchange trading."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

  2013-12-20
• Rebuilding Household Wealth: Implications for Economic Recovery [September 13, 2013]

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  "The pace of economic recovery from the 2007-2009 recession has been historically slow. Over four years of recovery, the annual rate of growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged 2%, well below the 3% to 5% typical of other post-WWII recoveries. As a result, the output gap--the difference between what the economy could produce and what it actually produced--has only declined from a high of 8.1% in mid-2009 to a still large 5.8% in mid- 2013. Slow growth of output has translated into a slow reduction of unemployment. The recovery has persisted, in part, due to support to aggregate spending by policies of fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, fiscal stimulus has steadily dissipated since 2010 and in 2013 the federal budget has turned contractionary. While monetary policy is expected to remain stimulative through 2013, it is unlikely to add to that stimulus to counteract the increasing drag of falling federal budget deficits on economic activity. Therefore, sustaining the recovery's momentum in the remainder of 2013 and into 2014 may require a greater push from private spending, particularly household consumption spending. […] A number of indicators paint a mixed picture of the prospect for stronger consumer spending. Despite clear progress, more repair of the severely damaged household balance sheet may be needed before households begin to spend at a faster pace. The typical household has likely only seen modest improvement in its net worth in large measure because the value of real estate, most often the largest asset it holds, has only recently been increasing. The rebound of the housing market portends progress for the typical household rebuilding its wealth, but it is unlikely that this process will be completed in 2013, making it also likely that tepid spending by consumers will continue. Determining the state of household net worth has implications for the optimal policy response going forward. If household net worth is judged to have not fully recovered from the damage incurred in 2007-2009, particularly for the typical household, some may regard this as an indicator of a continuing need for macroeconomic policy to provide stimulus to maintain the recovery's upward momentum. It could also have implications for federal policy measures that are aimed at providing direct help in removing the burden of household debt through programs that restructure mortgage debt."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2013-09-13
• Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [September 12, 2013]

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  "The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2013-09-12
• Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [June 21, 2013]

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  "The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2013-06-21
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [April 18, 2013]

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  "The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and slowed significantly in 2011. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the balance sheet of households, the labor market, and the housing sector. Congress was an active participant in the policy responses to this crisis and has an ongoing interest in macroeconomic conditions. Current macroeconomic concerns include whether the economy is in a sustained recovery, rapidly reducing unemployment, speeding a return to normal output and employment growth, and addressing government's long-term debt problem. […] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2013-04-18
• Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [February 26, 2013]

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  "The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Levine, Linda (Linda H.)

  2013-02-26
• Trade Primer: Qs and As on Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy [January 18, 2013]

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  "The 113th Congress may have a full legislative and oversight agenda on international trade. This may include consideration of legislation to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and implementation of a possible Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Congress may also pay close attention to the new negotiation for an International Services Agreement and developments in the Doha Development Round, both under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). There is also discussion of beginning trade negotiations for a U.S.- European Union free trade agreement (FTA). Other issues might include enhanced enforcement of U.S. trade agreements and trade relations with China. This report provides information and context for these and many other trade topics. It is intended to assist Members and staff who may be new to trade issues. For more details on specific trade issues facing the 113th Congress see CRS Report R42882, 'International Trade and Finance: Key Policy Issues for the 113th Congress,' coordinated by Mary A. Irace and J. F. Hornbeck. This report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts; U.S. trade performance; formulation of U.S. trade policy; and trade and investment issues. Additional suggested readings are provided in an appendix."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Hornbeck, J. F. (John F.); Bolle, Mary Jane; Cooper, William H., 1949- . . .

  2013-01-18
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [November 29, 2012]

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  "The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and slowed significantly in 2011. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the balance sheet of households, the labor market, and the housing sector. Congress was an active participant in the policy responses to this crisis and has an ongoing interest in macroeconomic conditions. Current macroeconomic concerns include whether the economy is in a sustained recovery, rapidly reducing unemployment, speeding a return to normal output and employment growth, and addressing government's long-term debt problem."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2012-11-29
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [October 12, 2012]

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  "The 2008-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. [...] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation-cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2012-10-12
• Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [June 19, 2012]

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  From the Document: "This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of a double-dip recession. It also discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. It presents the U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2012-06-19
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [May 17, 2012]

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  "The 2008-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. [...] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2012-05-17
• Depreciating Dollar: Economic Effects and Policy Responsibility [February 23, 2012]

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  "The exchange rate of the dollar is largely determined by the market--the supply and demand for dollars in global foreign exchange markets associated with the buying and selling of dollar denominated goods, services, and assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, real property) on global markets. In most circumstances, however, international asset-market transactions will tend to be dominant, with the size and strength of inflows and outflows of capital ultimately determining whether the exchange rate appreciates or depreciates. A variety of factors can influence the size and direction of cross-border asset flows. Of principal importance are the likely rate of return on the asset, investor expectations about a currency's future path, the size and liquidity of the country's asset markets, the need for currency diversification in international investors' portfolios, changes in the official holdings of foreign exchange reserves by central banks, and the need for and location of investment safe havens. All of these factors could themselves be influenced by economic policy choices. To give Congress the economic context in which to view the dollar's recent and prospective movement, this report analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate since its peak in 2002. It examines several factors that are likely to influence the dollar's medium-term path, what effects a depreciating dollar could have on the economy, and how alternative policy measures that could be taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the 112th Congress might influence the dollar's path."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2012-02-23
• Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [December 9, 2011]

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  "Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then, still well short of a full recovery, falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. The pace of the recovery has been relatively slow and growth has recently decelerated. For the first year of the recovery, real GDP grew at an average rate of 3.3%, slow by the standard of earlier post-war recoveries, but fast enough to stop the rise of the unemployment rate at 10.1% in October 2010 and to cause it to fall to 9.5% by mid-2010. However, in the recovery's second year, the rate of GDP growth slowed to an average rate of 1.6%, and the unemployment rate was only slightly lower at 8.6% in November 2011. […] While not leading to projections of a double-dip recession, this weakening has prompted many economic forecasters to substantially reduce their near-term growth projections from those made earlier in 2011. This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of a double-dip recession. It also discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. It presents the U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions. It examines the role of de[-]leveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-12-09
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [December 1, 2011]

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  "There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy have so far led to a weaker than normal recovery. If the pace of private spending proves insufficient to assure a sustained recovery, would further stimulus by monetary and fiscal policy be warranted? One of the important lessons from the Great Depression is to guard against a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in an economy recovering from a deep decline. The removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in 1937 is thought to have stopped a recovery and caused a slump that did not end until WWII. Opponents of further stimulus maintain that the accumulation of additional government debt would lower future economic growth, but supporters argue that additional stimulus is the appropriate near-term policy. In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-12-01
• Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [August 31, 2011]

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  From the Document: "Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. […] Nevertheless, recent economic indicators suggest that the recovery's underlying momentum has also weakened. While not leading to projections of a double-dip recession, this weakening has prompted many economic forecasters to trim their near-term growth projections from those made earlier in 2011. This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of double-dip recession. It discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. The U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions is also presented. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-08-31
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [July 18, 2011]

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  "The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Evidence suggests that the process of economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and relatively weak. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. […] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-07-18
• Brief History of the Gold Standard in the United States [June 23, 2011]

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  "The U.S. monetary system is based on paper money backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government. The currency is neither valued in, backed by, nor officially convertible into gold or silver. Through much of its history, however, the United States was on a metallic standard of one sort or another. On occasion, there are calls for Congress to return to such a system. Such calls are usually accompanied by claims that gold or silver backing has provided considerable economic benefits in the past. This report briefly reviews the history of the gold standard in the United States. It is intended to clarify the dates during which the standard was used, the type of gold standard in operation at the various times, and the statutory changes used to alter the standard and eventually end it. It is not a discussion of the merits of such a system. […] The gold standard ended in 1933 when the federal government halted convertibility of notes into gold and nationalized the private gold stock. The dollar was devalued in terms of its gold content, and made convertible into gold for official international transactions only. Even this quasi-gold standard became difficult to maintain in the 1960s. Over the period 1967-1973, the United States abandoned its commitment to covert dollars into gold in official transactions and stopped trying to maintain its value relative to foreign exchange. Despite several attempts to retain some link to gold, all official links of the dollar to gold were severed in 1976."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-06-23
• Depreciating Dollar: Economic Effects and Policy Response [April 15, 2011]

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  "A trend depreciation of the dollar since 2002 raises concern among some in Congress and the public that the dollar's decline is a symptom of broader economic problems, such as a weak economic recovery, rising public debt, and a diminished standing in the global economy. However, a falling currency is not always a problem, but possibly an element of economic adjustments that are, on balance, beneficial to the economy. A depreciating currency could affect several aspects of U.S. economic performance. Possible effects include increased net exports, decreased international purchasing power, rising commodity prices, and upward pressure on interest rates; if the trend is sustained, reduction of external debt, possible undermining of the dollar's reserve currency status, and an elevated risk of a dollar crisis. The exchange rate is not a variable that is easily addressed by changes in legislative policy. Nevertheless, although usually not the primary target, the dollar's international value can be affected by decisions made on policy issues facing the 112th Congress, including decisions related to generating jobs, raising the debt limit, reducing the budget deficit, and stabilizing the growth of the federal government's long-term debt. Also monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, over which Congress has oversight responsibilities, can affect the dollar. [...] To give Congress the economic context in which to view the dollar's recent and prospective movement, this report analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate since its peak in 2002. It examines several factors that are likely to influence the dollar's medium-term path, what effects a depreciating dollar could have on the economy, and how alternative policy measures that could be taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the 112th Congress might influence the dollar's path."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2011-04-15
• Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [December 3, 2010]

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  From the Document: "Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. The pace of the recovery has been below average and is decelerating, falling from a 5% to a 1.7% annual average rate of growth between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2010. Other indicators, such as high unemployment, falling house prices, reduced flows of credit, and the prospect of fading fiscal stimulus, are also worrisome. Double-dip recessions are rare. [...] This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of double-dip recession. It discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. The U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions is also presented. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2010-12-03
• Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [December 2, 2010]

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  "The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Evidence suggests that the process of economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the labor and housing markets. In the typical post-war business cycle, lower than normal growth during the recession is quickly followed by a recovery period with above normal growth. This above normal growth serves to speed up the reentry of the unemployed to the workforce. Once the economy reaches potential output (and full employment), growth returns to its normal growth path where the pace of aggregate spending advances in step with the pace of aggregate supply. There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy may lead to a weaker than normal recovery."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2010-12-02
• Saving Rates in the United States: Calculation and Comparison [September 14, 2010]

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  From the Summary: "The amount of money saved has important economic consequences. Nationally, the amount of saving affects how much can be invested and ultimately the size of the capital stock. Increasing the size of the capital stock is believed to be one way to raise the productivity of the labor force and the economy's long-term growth rate. Individually, saving is critical to accumulating sufficient wealth to maintain living standards after retirement. This report explains how national saving is measured, presents recent estimates of saving rates in the United States, and, for comparison, provides those of other major industrial countries. The pace of economic growth is likely to be a matter of particular importance in the decades just ahead as the economy confronts the need to effect unprecedented generational transfers of income to pay for the retirement of the baby-boom generation. A larger economic pie makes such transfers easier for the economy to bear. Because the national rate of saving has implications for the pace of economic growth and the country's capacity to meet these long-term obligations, it is likely to be matter of ongoing concern to Congress."

  Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

  Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

  2010-09-14