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U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options [July 12, 2010]
"The current account balance is the nation's most comprehensive measure of international transactions. It has three component balances: the goods and services balance, the investment income balance, and net unilateral transfers. These are all transactions thought to be closely related to current production, consumption, and income. For the United States, the size of the current account deficit is largely the refection of a similarly sized goods and services deficit (i.e., trade deficit). The U.S. current account (trade) deficit grew steadily from 1992 through 2006. In 2007, however, the trade imbalance decreased to $726.6 billion from $803.5 billion in 2006. In 2008 and 2009, the trade deficit continued to decrease, reaching $706.1 billion and $419.9 billion, respectively. These decreases reflected strong export sales and a steady weakening of import purchases. A sizable depreciation of the dollar from 2002 through 2007 made U.S. exports more attractive to foreign buyers and imports less attractive to American buyers. In addition, since 2006, economic growth in the United States slowed relative to that of its major trading partners. As a percentage of GDP, the trade deficit in 2009 decreased to 2.9%, down from a record 6.1% in 2006."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2010-07-12
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Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [December 9, 2011]
"Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then, still well short of a full recovery, falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. The pace of the recovery has been relatively slow and growth has recently decelerated. For the first year of the recovery, real GDP grew at an average rate of 3.3%, slow by the standard of earlier post-war recoveries, but fast enough to stop the rise of the unemployment rate at 10.1% in October 2010 and to cause it to fall to 9.5% by mid-2010. However, in the recovery's second year, the rate of GDP growth slowed to an average rate of 1.6%, and the unemployment rate was only slightly lower at 8.6% in November 2011. […] While not leading to projections of a double-dip recession, this weakening has prompted many economic forecasters to substantially reduce their near-term growth projections from those made earlier in 2011. This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of a double-dip recession. It also discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. It presents the U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions. It examines the role of de[-]leveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2011-12-09
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Brief History of the Gold Standard in the United States [June 23, 2011]
"The U.S. monetary system is based on paper money backed by the full faith and credit of the federal government. The currency is neither valued in, backed by, nor officially convertible into gold or silver. Through much of its history, however, the United States was on a metallic standard of one sort or another. On occasion, there are calls for Congress to return to such a system. Such calls are usually accompanied by claims that gold or silver backing has provided considerable economic benefits in the past. This report briefly reviews the history of the gold standard in the United States. It is intended to clarify the dates during which the standard was used, the type of gold standard in operation at the various times, and the statutory changes used to alter the standard and eventually end it. It is not a discussion of the merits of such a system. […] The gold standard ended in 1933 when the federal government halted convertibility of notes into gold and nationalized the private gold stock. The dollar was devalued in terms of its gold content, and made convertible into gold for official international transactions only. Even this quasi-gold standard became difficult to maintain in the 1960s. Over the period 1967-1973, the United States abandoned its commitment to covert dollars into gold in official transactions and stopped trying to maintain its value relative to foreign exchange. Despite several attempts to retain some link to gold, all official links of the dollar to gold were severed in 1976."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2011-06-23
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Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [July 18, 2011]
"The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Evidence suggests that the process of economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and relatively weak. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. […] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2011-07-18
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Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [August 31, 2011]
From the Document: "Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. […] Nevertheless, recent economic indicators suggest that the recovery's underlying momentum has also weakened. While not leading to projections of a double-dip recession, this weakening has prompted many economic forecasters to trim their near-term growth projections from those made earlier in 2011. This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of double-dip recession. It discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. The U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions is also presented. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2011-08-31
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Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [February 26, 2013]
"The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Levine, Linda (Linda H.)
2013-02-26
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Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [October 12, 2012]
"The 2008-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great
Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would
exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. [...] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation-cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2012-10-12
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Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [November 29, 2012]
"The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and slowed significantly in 2011. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the balance sheet of households, the labor market, and the housing sector. Congress was an active participant in the policy responses to this crisis and has an ongoing interest in macroeconomic conditions. Current macroeconomic concerns include whether the economy is in a sustained recovery, rapidly reducing unemployment, speeding a return to normal output and employment growth, and addressing government's long-term debt problem."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2012-11-29
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Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [December 1, 2011]
"There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy have so far led to a weaker than normal recovery. If the pace of private spending proves insufficient to assure a sustained recovery, would further stimulus by monetary and fiscal policy be warranted? One of the important lessons from the Great Depression is to guard against a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in an economy recovering from a deep decline. The removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in 1937 is thought to have stopped a recovery and caused a slump that did not end until WWII. Opponents of further stimulus maintain that the accumulation of additional government debt would lower future economic growth, but supporters argue that additional stimulus is the appropriate near-term policy. In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2011-12-01
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Depreciating Dollar: Economic Effects and Policy Responsibility [February 23, 2012]
"The exchange rate of the dollar is largely determined by the market--the supply and demand for dollars in global foreign exchange markets associated with the buying and selling of dollar denominated goods, services, and assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, real property) on global markets. In most circumstances, however, international asset-market transactions will tend to be dominant, with the size and strength of inflows and outflows of capital ultimately determining whether the exchange rate appreciates or depreciates. A variety of factors can influence the size and direction of cross-border asset flows. Of principal importance are the likely rate of return on the asset, investor expectations about a currency's future path, the size and liquidity of the country's asset markets, the need for currency diversification in international investors' portfolios, changes in the official holdings of foreign exchange reserves by central banks, and the need for and location of investment safe havens. All of these factors could themselves be influenced by economic policy choices. To give Congress the economic context in which to view the dollar's recent and prospective movement, this report analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate since its peak in 2002. It examines several factors that are likely to influence the dollar's medium-term path, what effects a depreciating dollar could have on the economy, and how alternative policy measures that could be taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the 112th Congress might influence the dollar's path."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2012-02-23
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Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [June 19, 2012]
From the Document: "This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of a double-dip recession. It also discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. It presents the U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2012-06-19
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Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [May 17, 2012]
"The 2008-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. [...] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2012-05-17
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Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses [August 30, 2010]
"Despite the severity of the recent financial crisis and recession, the U.S. economy has so far avoided falling into a deflationary spiral. Since mid-2009, the economy has been on a path of economic recovery. However, the pace of economic growth during the recovery has been relatively slow, and major economic weaknesses persist. In this economic environment, the risk of deflation remains significant and could delay sustained economic recovery. Deflation is a persistent decline in the overall level of prices. It is not unusual for prices to fall in a particular sector because of rising productivity, falling costs, or weak demand relative to the wider economy. In contrast, deflation occurs when price declines are so widespread and sustained that they cause a broad-based price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to decline for several quarters. Such a continuous decline in the price level is more troublesome, because in a weak or contracting economy it can lead to a damaging self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices and economic activity. However, there are also examples of relatively benign deflations when economic activity expanded despite a falling price level. For instance, from 1880 through 1896, the U.S. price level fell about 30%, but this coincided with a period of strong economic growth. Whether a deflation is on balance malign or benign most often will hinge on whether the force generating the falling price level is collapsing aggregate demand or accelerating aggregate supply. Both forces exert downward pressure on the price level but have opposite effects on the level of economic activity."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2010-08-30
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Is China a Threat to the U.S. Economy? [Updated January 23, 2007]
From the Summary: "The rise of China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of only 28 years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest economic success stories in modern times. From 1979 (when economic reforms were first introduced) to 2006, China's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 9.7%, the size of its economy increased over 11- fold, its real per capita GDP grew over 8-fold, and its world ranking for total trade rose from 27th to 3rd. By some measurements, China has become the world's secondlargest economy, and it could be the largest within a decade. […] This report examines the implications (both challenges and opportunities) for the U.S. economy from China's rapid economic growth and its emergence as a major economic power. It also describes congressional approaches for dealing with various Chinese economic policies deemed damaging to various U.S. economic sectors. This report will be updated as events warrant."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Labonte, Marc; Morrison, Wayne M.
2007-01-23
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Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar: Causes and Consequences [Updated May 7, 2008]
From the Summary: "After a long and large appreciation, in early 2002, the dollar peaked and steadily weakened in value relative to other major currencies through 2004. In 2005 and through most of 2006, the dollar was essentially steady. At the end of 2006, however, depreciation resumed and it has continued in 2007. A weaker dollar will be good news for exporters and those who compete with imports, while consumers of imports will be correspondingly unhappy. Yet it is important to recognize that a falling dollar is symptomatic of the ebb and flow of international capital in and out of the American economy. Those flows will have important implications for domestic interest rates and activities sensitive to credit conditions, such as housing and business investment. […] The depreciation of the dollar between 2002 and 2004 was likely the consequence of slower U.S. growth and a move toward a more diversified portfolio by foreign investors. However, in 2005 the dollar strengthened again as foreign investor demand for dollars was rejuvenated. Since then, weakening demand for dollar assets by foreign investors has put the dollar on a downward path and important forces seem poised to continue to put downward pressure on the currency. This report will be updated as events warrant."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2008-05-07
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Is China a Threat to the U.S. Economy? [August 10, 2006]
"The rise of China from a poor, stagnant country to a major economic power within a time span of only 27 years is often described by analysts as one of the greatest economic success stories in modern times. From 1979 (when economic reforms were first introduced) to 2005, China's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average annual rate of 9.7%, the size of its economy increased 11-fold, its real per capita GDP grew eightfold, and its world ranking for total trade rose from 27 to 3. By some measurements, China has become the world's second-largest economy, and it could be the largest within a decade. China's economic rise has led to a substantial growth in U.S.-China economic relations. Total trade between the two countries has surged from $4.9 billion in 1980 to $289 billion in 2005. For the United States, China is now its third-largest trading partner, its fourth-largest export market, and its second-largest source of imports. Inexpensive Chinese imports have increased the purchasing power of U.S. consumers. Many U.S. companies have extensive manufacturing operations in China in order to sell their products in the booming Chinese market and to take advantage of low-cost labor for exported goods. China's large-scale purchases of U.S. Treasury securities have funded federal deficits and helped keep U.S. interest rates relatively low. Despite the perceived threat from China, the U.S. economy has recently maintained full employment and robust economic growth. To date, the growth in Chinese exports appears to have come partly at the expense of Asian competitors."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Labonte, Marc; Morrison, Wayne M.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2006-08-10
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Dollar Crisis: Prospect and Implications [Updated May 6, 2008]
From the Summary: "The dollar's value in international exchange has been falling since early 2002. Over this five year span, the currency, on a real trade weighted basis, is down about 25%. For most of this time the dollar's fall was moderately paced at about 2.0% to 5.0% annually. Recently, however, the slide has accelerated, falling about 9% between January and December of 2007. An acceleration of the depreciation brings the periodic concern of an impending dollar crisis to the fore. There is no precise demarcation of when a falling dollar moves from being an orderly decline to being a crisis. Most likely it would be a situation where the dollar falls, perhaps 15% to 20% annually for several years, and sends a significant negative shock to the U.S. and the global economies. A crisis may not be an inevitable outcome, but one that likely presents considerable risk to the economy. […] The transition to a new equilibrium of trade balances may not be smooth, likely involving a slowdown in economic activity or a recession. The ongoing U.S. housing price crisis raises the risk of a dollar crisis causing a recession. With fiscal policy most likely out of consideration in the near term, the task of attempting to counter the short-term contractionary effects of a dollar crisis would fall upon the Federal Reserve. A stimulative monetary policy can be implemented quickly but its eventual effectiveness is uncertain. The most useful policy response by foreign economies would be complementary expansionary policies to offset the negative impact of their appreciating currencies on their net exports. Attempts to defend a currency against this crisis driven appreciation would be costly and likely fail."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2008-05-06
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Rebuilding Household Wealth: Implications for Economic Recovery [September 13, 2013]
"The pace of economic recovery from the 2007-2009 recession has been historically slow. Over four years of recovery, the annual rate of growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) has averaged 2%, well below the 3% to 5% typical of other post-WWII recoveries. As a result, the output gap--the difference between what the economy could produce and what it actually produced--has only declined from a high of 8.1% in mid-2009 to a still large 5.8% in mid- 2013. Slow growth of output has translated into a slow reduction of unemployment. The recovery has persisted, in part, due to support to aggregate spending by policies of fiscal and monetary stimulus. However, fiscal stimulus has steadily dissipated since 2010 and in 2013 the federal budget has turned contractionary. While monetary policy is expected to remain stimulative through 2013, it is unlikely to add to that stimulus to counteract the increasing drag of falling federal budget deficits on economic activity. Therefore, sustaining the recovery's momentum in the remainder of 2013 and into 2014 may require a greater push from private spending, particularly household consumption spending. […] A number of indicators paint a mixed picture of the prospect for stronger consumer spending. Despite clear progress, more repair of the severely damaged household balance sheet may be needed before households begin to spend at a faster pace. The typical household has likely only seen modest improvement in its net worth in large measure because the value of real estate, most often the largest asset it holds, has only recently been increasing. The rebound of the housing market portends progress for the typical household rebuilding its wealth, but it is unlikely that this process will be completed in 2013, making it also likely that tepid spending by consumers will continue. Determining the state of household net worth has implications for the optimal policy response going forward. If household net worth is judged to have not fully recovered from the damage incurred in 2007-2009, particularly for the typical household, some may regard this as an indicator of a continuing need for macroeconomic policy to provide stimulus to maintain the recovery's upward momentum. It could also have implications for federal policy measures that are aimed at providing direct help in removing the burden of household debt through programs that restructure mortgage debt."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2013-09-13
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Export Administration Act of 1979 Reauthorization [Updated January 2, 2003]
"In debates on export administration legislation, parties often fall into two camps: those who primarily want to liberalize controls in order to promote exports, and those who are apprehensive that liberalization may compromise national security goals. While it is widely agreed that exports of some goods and technologies can adversely affect U.S. national security and foreign policy, many believe that current export controls are detrimental to U.S. business, that the resultant loss of competitiveness, market share, and jobs can harm the U.S. economy, and that the harm to particular U.S. industries and to the economy itself can negatively impact U.S. security. Controversies arise with regard to the cost to the U.S. economy, the licensing system, foreign availability of controlled items, and unilateral controls as opposed to multilateral regimes. In the last few years, congressional attention has focused on high-performance computers, encryption, stealth technology, precision machine tools, satellites, and aerospace technology. Congress has several options in addressing export administration policy, ranging from approving no new legislation to rewriting the entire Export Administration Act. Among the options presented in this report are: allow the President to continue export controls under emergency authority, restore the EAA 1979 with increased penalties, or, rewrite the Export Administration Act to account for changing national security concerns and a globalized economy."
Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service
Grimmett, Jeanne J.; Fergusson, Ian F.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-
2003-01-02
