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Trade Primer: Qs and As on Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy [March 27, 2007]

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"The 110th Congress has a full legislative and oversight agenda on international trade. The agenda may include considering legislation to implement a number of free trade agreements, possible renewal of trade promotion authority (TPA), as well as oversight of U.S. trade relations with China. This report provides information and context for many of these topics. It is intended to be read primarily by Members and staff who may be new to trade issues. This report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts, U.S. trade performance, formulation of U.S. trade policy, and trade and investment issues. Additional suggested readings are provided in an appendix."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Ahearn, Raymond J.; Bolle, Mary Jane; Cooper, William H., 1949- . . .

2007-03-27
Trade Primer: Qs and As on Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy [January 18, 2013]

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"The 113th Congress may have a full legislative and oversight agenda on international trade. This may include consideration of legislation to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) and implementation of a possible Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Congress may also pay close attention to the new negotiation for an International Services Agreement and developments in the Doha Development Round, both under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). There is also discussion of beginning trade negotiations for a U.S.- European Union free trade agreement (FTA). Other issues might include enhanced enforcement of U.S. trade agreements and trade relations with China. This report provides information and context for these and many other trade topics. It is intended to assist Members and staff who may be new to trade issues. For more details on specific trade issues facing the 113th Congress see CRS Report R42882, 'International Trade and Finance: Key Policy Issues for the 113th Congress,' coordinated by Mary A. Irace and J. F. Hornbeck. This report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts; U.S. trade performance; formulation of U.S. trade policy; and trade and investment issues. Additional suggested readings are provided in an appendix."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Hornbeck, J. F. (John F.); Bolle, Mary Jane; Cooper, William H., 1949- . . .

2013-01-18
U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures [Updated May 16, 2006]

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"The U.S. trade deficit has risen more or less steadily since 1992. The trade imbalance reached $804.9 billion in 2005, an increase of nearly $137 billion over the 2004 deficit, and a rise of about $755 billion since 1992. The deficit's growth in 2005 was for the most part the consequence of a sharp acceleration of import purchases, up nearly $225 billion, in a fast growing economy. Exports also increased in 2005, but by a smaller $122 billion. Together this has resulted in the trade deficit reaching another record size in 2005. The investment income component of the trade balance deteriorated from a surplus of $30.4 billion in 2004 down to a surplus of $1.6 billion in 2005. The large and growing size of U.S. foreign indebtedness suggests that the longer term trend will be toward investment income deficits. [...] Policy action to reduce the overall trade deficit is problematic. Standard trade policy tools (e.g., tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) do not work. Macroeconomic policy tools can work, but recent and prospective government budget deficits will reduce domestic saving and most likely tend to increase the trade deficit. Most economists believe that, in time, the trade deficit will most likely correct itself, without crisis, under the pressures of normal market forces. But the risk of a more calamitous outcome can not be completely discounted. This report will be updated annually."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2006-05-16
Saving Rates in the United States: Calculation and Comparison [September 14, 2010]

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From the Summary: "The amount of money saved has important economic consequences. Nationally, the amount of saving affects how much can be invested and ultimately the size of the capital stock. Increasing the size of the capital stock is believed to be one way to raise the productivity of the labor force and the economy's long-term growth rate. Individually, saving is critical to accumulating sufficient wealth to maintain living standards after retirement. This report explains how national saving is measured, presents recent estimates of saving rates in the United States, and, for comparison, provides those of other major industrial countries. The pace of economic growth is likely to be a matter of particular importance in the decades just ahead as the economy confronts the need to effect unprecedented generational transfers of income to pay for the retirement of the baby-boom generation. A larger economic pie makes such transfers easier for the economy to bear. Because the national rate of saving has implications for the pace of economic growth and the country's capacity to meet these long-term obligations, it is likely to be matter of ongoing concern to Congress."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2010-09-14
U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures [April 23, 2008]

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"The U.S. trade deficit had risen steadily since 1992. In 2007, however, the trade imbalance decreased to $738.6 billion from $811.5 billion in 2006. This decrease was a reflection of continued strong growth of exports sales, up $182 billion or 12.6% over their level in 2006; and the continuing deceleration of import purchases, advancing $132.7 billion or 6.0% over their level in 2006. A sizable depreciation of the dollar since 2002 has at once made U.S. exports more attractive to foreign buyers and imports less attractive to American buyers. As a percentage of GDP, the trade deficit in 2007 stood at 5.3%, a decrease from 6.1% in 2006. The surplus in the investment income component of the trade balance increased to $74 billion, up from a surplus of $36.6 billion in 2006. However, the large and growing size of U.S. foreign indebtedness caused by successive trade deficits suggests that the investment income surplus will soon be pushed toward deficit. […] Policy action to reduce the overall trade deficit is problematic. Standard trade policy tools (e.g., tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) do not work. Macroeconomic policy tools can work, but recent and prospective government budget deficits will reduce domestic saving and most likely tend to increase the trade deficit. Most economists believe that, in time, the trade deficit will correct itself, without crisis, under the pressures of normal market forces. But the risk of a more calamitous outcome can not be completely discounted. This report will be updated annually."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2008-04-23
U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures [Updated October 11, 2007]

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"The benefit of the trade deficit is that it allows the United States to spend now beyond current income. In recent years that spending has largely been for investment in productive capital. The cost of the trade deficit is a deterioration of the U.S. investment-income balance, as the payment on what the United States has borrowed from foreigners grows with its rising indebtedness. Borrowing from abroad allows the United States to live better today, but the payback must mean some decrement to the rate of advance of U.S. living standards in the future. U.S. trade deficits do not now substantially raise the risk of economic instability, but they do impose burdens on trade sensitive sectors of the economy. Policy action to reduce the overall trade deficit is problematic. Standard trade policy tools (e.g., tariffs, quotas, and subsidies) do not work. Macroeconomic policy tools can work, but recent and prospective government budget deficits will reduce domestic saving and most likely tend to increase the trade deficit. Most economists believe that, in time, the trade deficit will most likely correct itself, without crisis, under the pressures of normal market forces. But the risk of a more calamitous outcome can not be completely discounted. This report will be updated annually."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2007-10-11
U.S. Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy: Frequently Asked Questions [November 17, 2014]

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"Congress plays a major role in U.S. trade policy through its legislative and oversight authority. There are a number of major trade issues that are currently the focus of Congress. For example, bills were introduced in the 113th Congress to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank. Congress has also been involved with proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) involving the United States and 11 other countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union (EU). Also of interest to Congress are current plurilateral negotiations for a Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) and a new multilateral Information Technology (ITA) agreement in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trade and investment policies of major U.S. trading partners (such as China), especially when they are deemed harmful to U.S. economic interests, are also of continued concern to Congress. Events in the Ukraine have prompted U.S. trade sanctions against Russia. The costs and benefits of trade to the U.S. economy, firms, workers, and constituents, and the future direction of U.S. trade policy, are hotly debated topics in Congress. This report provides information and context for these and many other trade topics. It is intended to assist Members and staff who may be new to trade issues. The report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts; U.S. trade performance; formulation of U.S. trade policy; and trade and investment issues. Additional suggested readings are provided in an appendix."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Villarreal, M. Angeles; Jones, Vivian Catherine; Jackson, James K., 1949- . . .

2014-11-17
U.S. Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy: Frequently Asked Questions [January 30, 2015]

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"Congress plays a major role in U.S. trade policy through its legislative and oversight authority. There are a number of major trade issues that are currently the focus of Congress. For example, bills were introduced in the 113th Congress to reauthorize Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), and the U.S. Export-Import Bank, and legislative action on these issues could be forthcoming in the 114th Congress. Additionally, Congress has been involved with proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) involving the United States and 11 other countries and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union (EU). Also of interest to Congress are current plurilateral negotiations for a Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) and a new multilateral Information Technology (ITA) agreement in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Trade and investment policies of major U.S. trading partners (such as China), especially when they are deemed harmful to U.S. economic interests, are also of continued concern to Congress. Recent improved U.S. relations with Cuba have resulted in the introduction of several bills to boost bilateral commercial ties. The costs and benefits of trade to the U.S. economy, firms, workers, and constituents, and the future direction of U.S. trade policy, are the subject of ongoing debates in Congress."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Morrison, Wayne M.; Bolle, Mary Jane; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947- . . .

2015-01-30
Financial Market Turmoil and U.S. Marcroeconomic Performance [December 3, 2008]

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"A large and relatively unimpeded flow of credit through healthy financial markets is a salient attribute of the U.S. economy and any well functioning modern economy. Banks and other financial institutions channel the economy's savings toward a variety of current productive uses. By borrowing short-term and lending long-term, these institutions create a flow of credit that passes liquidity from savers to investors, and transforms liquid short-run assets into less liquid long-term assets. These long-term assets are created by credit-financed, current spending by households on housing, consumer durables, and education, and by, current spending by businesses on new plant and equipment. But lending in credit markets requires confidence in the borrowers' ability to repay the debt (principal and interest) in full and on schedule. The current turmoil in U.S. financial markets is the result of a breakdown in that necessary confidence. In an environment of distrust, financial institutions are far less willing and able to lend long-term. The move toward short-term lending diminishes the flow of long-term credit to the non-financial economy and dampens the economic activities of households and businesses that are dependent on borrowing. Economic policy may be needed to get credit flowing smoothly again and to mitigate the damage incurred by households and non-financial businesses. A number of indicators have pointed to a substantial rise in the cost of credit and a decrease in the flow of credit to the broader economy."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2008-12-03
Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [December 2, 2010]

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"The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Evidence suggests that the process of economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the labor and housing markets. In the typical post-war business cycle, lower than normal growth during the recession is quickly followed by a recovery period with above normal growth. This above normal growth serves to speed up the reentry of the unemployed to the workforce. Once the economy reaches potential output (and full employment), growth returns to its normal growth path where the pace of aggregate spending advances in step with the pace of aggregate supply. There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy may lead to a weaker than normal recovery."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2010-12-02
Dollar Crisis: Prospect and Implications [January 8, 2008]

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"The dollar's value in international exchange has been falling since early 2002. Over this five year span, the currency, on a real trade weighted basis, is down about 29%. For most of this time the dollar's fall was moderately paced at about 3.0% to 4.0% annually. Recently, however, the slide has accelerated, falling nearly 10% between January and December of 2007. An acceleration of the depreciation brings the periodic concern of an impending dollar crisis to the fore. There is no precise demarcation of when a falling dollar moves from being an orderly decline to being a crisis. Most likely it would be a situation where the dollar falls, perhaps 15% to 20% annually for several years, and sends a significant negative shock to the U.S. and the global economies. This crisis may not be an inevitable outcome, but one that likely presents considerable risk to the economy. The large U.S. current account deficits are sustained by an inflow of foreign capital. That inflow also exerts upward pressure on the value of the dollar as investors demand dollars to enable the purchase of dollar denominated assets. There is a limit to how much external debt even the U.S. economy can incur. Erasing the U.S. trade gap would stop the accumulation of debt. This would occur through a rebalancing of global spending, composed of a decrease of domestic spending in the United States and an increase of domestic spending in the surplus economies. Such shifts in domestic spending patterns must be induced by a depreciation of the dollar, causing the price of foreign goods to rise for U.S. buyers and the price of U.S. goods to fall for foreign buyers."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2008-01-08
Depreciating Dollar: Economic Effects and Policy Response [July 17, 2008]

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"[…] From 2002 to the present, the dollar, for the most part, steadily depreciated, falling about 26%. From early 2002 through 2006 the dollar's fall was moderately paced at about 3.0% to 4.0% annually. Recently, however, the slide has accelerated, falling nearly 10% between June 2007 and June 2008. The weakening of the dollar for over five years has raised concern about the health of the U.S. economy. Addressing that concern, this report examines the likely reasons for the dollar's fall, the effects the depreciating currency could have on the economy, and possible policy responses that could be considered to attempt to alter the dollar's path if needed. Since the break-up of the Bretton Woods international monetary system in 1973, the real exchange rate of the dollar has been largely determined by the market -- the supply and demand for dollars in global foreign exchange markets. Dollars are demanded by foreigners to buy dollar denominated goods and assets. (Assets include bank accounts, stocks, bonds, and real property.) Dollars are supplied to the foreign exchange markets by Americans in exchange for foreign currencies to buy foreign currency denominated goods and assets. In most circumstances, however, there is a strong expectation that asset market transactions will tend to be dominant and ultimately dictate the exchange rate's actual direction of movement. This dominance is the result of asset market transactions occurring on a scale and at a speed that greatly exceeds what occurs with goods market transactions."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2008-07-17
Trade, Trade Barriers, and Trade Deficits: Implications for U.S. Economic Welfare [Updated May 22, 2006]

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"This report provides an overview of the economics of international trade that may be helpful for consideration of many recurring international economic policy issues. It is intended as a general explanation of mainstream economic principles that may be considered in gauging the economic significance of trade issues as well as the trade-offs inherent in many policy choices. A fundamental tenet of economics is that international trade is a means to a higher standard of living for all trading nations. The post-war era has seen a rapid expansion of trade and the United States has been a major participant in this process both as a trading nation and as a leader in the steady lowering of barriers to trade worldwide. The significant benefit of trade does not come without disruption and cost, however. Gaining the benefit of trade and also treating equitably those hurt by trade is often a difficult public policy issue."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2006-05-22
Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [July 15, 2014]

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"Bitcoin first appeared in January 2009, the creation of a computer programmer using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. His invention is an open source (its controlling computer code is open to public view), peer to peer (transactions do not require a third-party intermediary such as PayPal or Visa), digital currency (being electronic with no physical manifestation). The Bitcoin system is private, but with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is 'completely decentralized', with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer) but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems such as credit cards and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. Congress is interested in Bitcoin because of concerns about its use in illegal money transfers, concerns about its effect on the ability of the Federal Reserve to meet its objectives (of stable prices, maximum employment, and financial stability), and concerns about the protection of consumers and investors who might use it."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

2014-07-15
Commemorations in Congress: Options for Honoring Individuals, Groups, and Events [May 9, 2014]

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"Since its inception, Congress has used commemorative legislation to express public gratitude for distinguished contributions; dramatize the virtues of individuals, groups, and causes; and perpetuate the remembrance of significant events. During the past two centuries, commemoratives have become an integral part of the American political tradition. They have been used to authorize the minting of commemorative coins and Congressional Gold Medals; fund monuments and memorials; create federal holidays; establish commissions to celebrate important anniversaries; and name public works, scholarships, endowments, fellowships, and historic sites. Current congressional practice for commemoratives includes a House Rule (Rule XII, clause 5, initially adopted during the 104th Congress (1995-1996)) that precludes the introduction or consideration of legislation that commemorates 'any remembrance, celebration, or recognition for any purpose through the designation of a special period of time.' Such a rule does not exist in the Senate. This change to House Rules, together with the passage of more restrictive laws, rules, and procedures governing the enactment of several other types of commemoratives, has substantially reduced the time Congress spends considering and adopting such measures. This report summarizes the evolution of commemorative legislation as well as the laws, rules, and procedures that have been adopted to control the types of commemoratives considered and enacted."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Straus, Jacob R.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Glassman, Matthew . . .

2014-05-09
What Is the Current State of the Economic Recovery? [December 1, 2014]

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This report briefly outlines the slow growth and recovery of the U.S. economy following the end of the 2007-2009 recession. The report compares this recovery to previous recoveries by stating: "From the recession's end in mid-2009 through the third quarter of 2014, as measured by real GDP growth (i.e., gross domestic product adjusted for inflation), the economy's average annual rate of growth has been about 2.2%, compared to the 4.5% pace typical of previous post-WWII recoveries. After a temporary setback in the first quarter of 2014, growth rebounded above the recovery's slow average pace over the next two quarters with gains of 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. The current recovery has taken longer than the 5-year average of previous recoveries. After 5½ years it is still short of completion. Through mid-2014, the economy's output gap (i.e., the shortfall of actual output below the economy's estimated potential) was 3.5%, much improved from the 7.5% output gap during the recession, but well short of the historical average of about 0.5%." This report also discusses some sources of the U.S. economy's growth to include: personal consumption spending, investment spending, and exports.

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2014-12-01
Trade, Trade Barriers, and Trade Deficits: Implications for U.S. Economic Welfare [Updated January 27, 2005]

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"This report provides an overview of the economics of international trade that may be helpful for consideration of many recurring international economic policy issues. It is intended as a general explanation of mainstream economic principles that may be considered in gauging the economic significance of trade issues as well as the trade-offs inherent in many policy choices. A fundamental tenet of economics is that international trade is a means to a higher standard of living for all trading nations. The post-war era has seen a rapid expansion of trade and the United States has been a major participant in this process both as a trading nation and as a leader in the steady lowering of barriers to trade worldwide. The significant benefit of trade does not come without disruption and cost, however. Gaining the benefit of trade and also treating equitably those hurt by trade is often a difficult public policy issue. […] The trade deficit is not a necessary aspect of trade, nor is it caused by foreign trade barriers. A trade deficit is rooted in macroeconomic behavior at home and abroad. The deficit is a means for the nation to spend beyond current production, with a like sized inflow of borrowed foreign capital that funds the added spending. Spending beyond current production, particularly on investment, can confer significant benefits. But, borrowing will entail some level of cost as debts are repaid."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2005-01-27
Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [September 12, 2013]

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"The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2013-09-12
Distribution of Household Income and the Middle Class [March 10, 2014]

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"After briefly analyzing the distribution of household money income in 2012, the report attempts to put the term 'middle class' into greater perspective. The first key point of the report is that, although there are a variety of ways to describe the income distribution, all show that income is concentrated among high-income households. […] The second major point is that there is no official government definition of who belongs to the middle class, and the term means different things to different people. The middle class may refer to a group with a common point of view or to those having similar incomes, for example. Third, absolute income appears to partly determine who belongs to the middle class. […] Last, relative income may also be a defining characteristic of the middle class. In other words, the middle class appears to identify itself relative to the income of a reference group (e.g., their neighbors or coworkers)."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2014-03-10
Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [January 28, 2015]

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"Bitcoin first appeared in January 2009, the creation of a computer programmer using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. His invention is an open-source (its controlling computer code is open to public view), peer-to-peer (transactions do not require a third-party intermediary such as PayPal or Visa) digital currency (being electronic with no physical manifestation). The Bitcoin system is private, with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is completely decentralized, with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third-party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer), but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason, Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems, such as credit cards, and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. […] In addition, Bitcoin raises a number of legal and regulatory concerns, including its potential for facilitating money laundering, its treatment under federal securities law, and its status in the regulation of foreign exchange trading."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

2015-01-28
Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [June 21, 2013]

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"The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2013-06-21
Long-Term Growth of the U.S. Economy: Significance, Determinants, and Policy [Updated May 25, 2006]

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From the Document: "The rate of long-term economic growth is the salient measure of the nation's ability to steadily advance its material living standard. The pace of long-term economic growth is likely to be a center of attention in the decades just ahead, as the U.S. economy confronts the need to undertake unprecedentedly large generational transfers of income to pay for the retirement of the huge baby-boom generation as well as large transfers to the rest of the world to meet the debt service costs of the United States' large and still growing foreign debt. For the United States, the long-term growth of real GDP [Gross Domestic Product] 'per-capita' over the last 125 years has revealed remarkable steadiness, advancing decade after decade with only modest and temporary variation from a trend annual average rate of growth of 1.8%. Overall, the limited variability of the rate of U.S. long-term growth, despite major changes in economic conditions, as well as economic and social policies, suggests that U.S. long-term growth may be governed by forces other than typical economic variables and may not be easy to alter with conventional economic policy. Nevertheless, the evidence of some degree of medium-term variability suggests the possibility of using economic policy to exert some influence. It is important to recognize that even relatively small differences in the rate of economic growth will steadily cumulate to have large effects on the scale of improvement in future living standards. Such an improvement would make the burden of future transfers on workers less onerous."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2006-05-25
Foreign Outsourcing: Economic Implications and Policy Responses [Updated June 21, 2005]

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"Foreign outsourcing--the importing of some intermediate product […] that was once produced domestically--is not a new phenomenon, nor is it one that is economically distinct from other types of imports in terms of its basic economic consequences. A steadily rising level of trade in intermediate products is one of the salient characteristics of U.S. trade and world trade for the last 30 years. It has been estimated that as much as a third of the growth of world trade since 1970 has been the result of such outsourcing worldwide. While foreign outsourcing may seem different from traditional notions of trade in that it involves exchange of a productive resource (capital or labor) rather than an exchange of a final good and service, the ultimate economic outcome is exactly the same: a net increase in economic efficiency through the elimination of economic inefficiencies that occur when countries use only the productive resources found within their borders. […] The destructive aspects of foreign outsourcing are costly and distressing to those whose jobs are lost to increased imports. Therefore, matters of efficiency and equity are intertwined and one of the principal challenges for policymakers in the face of foreign outsourcing (and trade in general) is to find ways to ameliorate the associated harm, without sacrificing the economy-wide gains that such trade generates. Compensation for loss and adjustment assistance is thought by economists to offer the best chance for securing higher economic efficiency along with distributional equity. This report will be updated as events warrant."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2005-06-21
Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [April 18, 2013]

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"The 2007-2009 recession was long and deep, and according to several indicators was the most severe economic contraction since the 1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression). The slowdown of economic activity was moderate through the first half of 2008, but at that point the weakening economy was overtaken by a major financial crisis that would exacerbate the economic weakness and accelerate the decline. Economic recovery began in mid-2009. Real gross domestic product (GDP) has been on a positive track since then, although the pace has been uneven and slowed significantly in 2011. The stock market has recovered from its lows, and employment has increased moderately. On the other hand, significant economic weakness remains evident, particularly in the balance sheet of households, the labor market, and the housing sector. Congress was an active participant in the policy responses to this crisis and has an ongoing interest in macroeconomic conditions. Current macroeconomic concerns include whether the economy is in a sustained recovery, rapidly reducing unemployment, speeding a return to normal output and employment growth, and addressing government's long-term debt problem. […] In regard to the long-term debt problem, in an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring is therefore low in the near term. Once the cyclical problem of weak demand is resolved and the economy has returned to a normal growth path, mainstream economists' consensus policy response for an economy with a looming debt crisis is fiscal consolidation--cutting deficits. Such a policy would have the benefits of low and stable interest rates, a less fragile financial system, improved investment prospects, and possibly faster long-term growth."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2013-04-18
Commemorations in Congress: Options for Honoring Individuals, Groups, and Events [April 22, 2015]

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"Since its inception, Congress has used commemorative legislation to express public gratitude for distinguished contributions; dramatize the virtues of individuals, groups, and causes; and perpetuate the remembrance of significant events. During the past two centuries, commemoratives have become an integral part of the American political tradition. They have been used to authorize the minting of commemorative coins and Congressional Gold Medals; fund monuments and memorials; create federal holidays; establish commissions to celebrate important anniversaries; and name public works, scholarships, endowments, fellowships, and historic sites. Current congressional practice for commemoratives includes a House Rule (Rule XII, clause 5, initially adopted during the 104th Congress (1995-1996)) that precludes the introduction or consideration of legislation that commemorates 'any remembrance, celebration, or recognition for any purpose through the designation of a special period of time.' Such a rule does not exist in the Senate. This change to House Rules, together with the passage of more restrictive laws, rules, and procedures governing the enactment of several other types of commemoratives, has substantially reduced the time Congress spends considering and adopting such measures."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Straus, Jacob R.; Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Glassman, Matthew . . .

2014-04-22
Inflation and the Real Minimum Wage: A Fact Sheet [January 8, 2014]

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"The Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) of 1938 established the hourly minimum wage rate at 25 cents for covered workers. Since then, it has been raised 22 separate times, in part to keep up with rising prices. Most recently, in July 2009, it was increased to $7.25 an hour. Because there have been some extended periods between these adjustments while inflation generally has increased, the real value (purchasing power) of the minimum wage has decreased substantially over time."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2014-01-08
Bitcoin: Questions, Answers, and Analysis of Legal Issues [December 20, 2013]

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"The Bitcoin system is private, but with no traditional financial institutions involved in transactions. Unlike earlier digital currencies that had some central controlling person or entity, the Bitcoin network is 'completely decentralized', with all parts of transactions performed by the users of the system. With a Bitcoin transaction there is no third party intermediary. The buyer and seller interact directly (peer to peer) but their identities are encrypted and no personal information is transferred from one to the other. However, unlike a fully anonymous transaction, there is a transaction record. A full transaction record of every Bitcoin and every Bitcoin user's encrypted identity is maintained on the public ledger. For this reason Bitcoin transactions are thought to be pseudonymous, not anonymous. Although the scale of Bitcoin use has increased substantially, it still remains small in comparison to traditional electronic payments systems such as credit cards and the use of dollars as a circulating currency. Congress is interested in Bitcoin because of concerns about its use in illegal money transfers, concerns about its effect on the ability of the Federal Reserve to meet its objectives (of stable prices, maximum employment, and financial stability), and concerns about the protection of consumers and investors who might use it. […] Bitcoin also raises a number of legal and regulatory concerns including its potential for facilitating money laundering, its treatment under federal securities law, and its status in the regulation of foreign exchange trading."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-; Murphy, M. Maureen; Seitzinger, Michael V.

2013-12-20
Depreciating Dollar: Economic Effects and Policy Response [April 15, 2011]

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"A trend depreciation of the dollar since 2002 raises concern among some in Congress and the public that the dollar's decline is a symptom of broader economic problems, such as a weak economic recovery, rising public debt, and a diminished standing in the global economy. However, a falling currency is not always a problem, but possibly an element of economic adjustments that are, on balance, beneficial to the economy. A depreciating currency could affect several aspects of U.S. economic performance. Possible effects include increased net exports, decreased international purchasing power, rising commodity prices, and upward pressure on interest rates; if the trend is sustained, reduction of external debt, possible undermining of the dollar's reserve currency status, and an elevated risk of a dollar crisis. The exchange rate is not a variable that is easily addressed by changes in legislative policy. Nevertheless, although usually not the primary target, the dollar's international value can be affected by decisions made on policy issues facing the 112th Congress, including decisions related to generating jobs, raising the debt limit, reducing the budget deficit, and stabilizing the growth of the federal government's long-term debt. Also monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve, over which Congress has oversight responsibilities, can affect the dollar. [...] To give Congress the economic context in which to view the dollar's recent and prospective movement, this report analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate since its peak in 2002. It examines several factors that are likely to influence the dollar's medium-term path, what effects a depreciating dollar could have on the economy, and how alternative policy measures that could be taken by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and the 112th Congress might influence the dollar's path."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2011-04-15
Double-Dip Recession: Previous Experience and Current Prospect [December 3, 2010]

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From the Document: "Concerns have been expressed that the United States may be about to experience a 'double-dip' recession. A double-dip or W-shaped recession occurs when the economy emerges from a recession, has a short period of growth, but then falls back into recession. This prospect raises policy questions about the current level of economic stimulus and whether added stimulus may be needed. The pace of the recovery has been below average and is decelerating, falling from a 5% to a 1.7% annual average rate of growth between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the second quarter of 2010. Other indicators, such as high unemployment, falling house prices, reduced flows of credit, and the prospect of fading fiscal stimulus, are also worrisome. Double-dip recessions are rare. [...] This report discusses factors suggesting an increased risk of double-dip recession. It discusses other factors that suggest economic recovery will continue. The U.S. historical experience with double-dip recessions is also presented. It examines the role of deleveraging by households and businesses in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis in shaping the likely pace of economic recovery. The report concludes with a look at current economic projections."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2010-12-03
Economic Recovery: Sustaining U.S. Economic Growth in a Post-Crisis Economy [July 22, 2010]

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"There is concern that this time the U.S. economy will either not return to its pre-recession growth path but perhaps remain permanently below it, or return to the pre-crisis path but at a slower than normal pace. Problems on the supply side and the demand side of the economy may lead to a weaker than normal recovery. If the pace of private spending proves insufficient to assure a sustained recovery, would further stimulus by monetary and fiscal policy be warranted? One of the important lessons from the Great Depression is to guard against a too hasty withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in an economy recovering from a deep decline. The removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus in 1937 is thought to have stopped a recovery and caused a slump that did not end until WWII. Opponents of further stimulus maintain that the accumulation of additional government debt would lower future economic growth, but supporters argue that additional stimulus is the appropriate near-term policy. In regard to the long-term debt problem, it is true that for an economy operating close to potential output, government borrowing to finance budget deficits will in theory draw down the pool of national saving, crowding out private capital investment and slowing long-term growth. However, the U.S. economy is currently operating well short of capacity and the risk of such crowding out occurring and damaging future economic growth seems low."

Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Elwell, Craig Kent, 1947-

2010-07-22

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