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Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA
From the Foreword: "As China seeks to exert its power and influence around the world, its military, the People's Liberation Army, will be an increasingly important instrument of these efforts. Twenty years ago, the People's Liberation Army rarely ventured beyond China's borders. Today, this observation no longer holds true. The People's Liberation Army now engages in numerous joint exercises and training events with foreign militaries each year, participates in a wide range of bilateral and multilateral security dialogues and forums, deploys forces to several UN peacekeeping operations, and frequently conducts humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions. Moreover, the People's Liberation Army is developing the capabilities to conduct combat missions outside its immediate periphery, although the organization has not been involved in combat since the 1980s. Therefore, aside from the possibility of conflict between the United States and China in the western Pacific area, the US military will increasingly have to take account of the presence and activities of the People's Liberation Army throughout the world. The conference papers in this book examine the People's Liberation Army's current and possible future activities beyond the confines of East Asia; analyze China's military relations with the continents of Europe, Africa, and Latin America; assess the People's Liberation Army's activities in the Indian Ocean, Oceania, and the polar regions; and contain focused studies of the roles of two key organizations: the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force. Collectively, the book provides a comprehensive picture of a military organization that is extending its reach to all corners of the globe."
Army War College (U.S.). Press
Béraud-Sudreau, Lucie; Brewster, David; Cairns, Christopher . . .
2022-07-27
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China, Europe, and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing's Investments and Transatlantic Security
From the Introduction: "With most of Europe suffering the effects of a pandemic-induced recession, will China repeat the role it played in the wake of the 2009-12 European sovereign debt crisis, essentially acting as a lender of last resort for countries and firms in need of liquidity? A decade ago, in the wake of the global financial crisis, Chinese investment in Europe exploded. In 2008, Chinese outbound foreign direct investment in Europe totaled just €700 million in completed transactions. By 2016, this amount had grown to €37.3 billion in completed transactions. At the time, Chinese investments brought much-needed capital to the cash-strapped continent. Chinese investors have been drawn to Europe for several reasons, including the undervaluation of European assets, the appeal of technologically advanced industry, and a friendlier investment climate relative to the United States. [...] From a traditional national security perspective, much of this investment was relatively harmless. But some investments led to Chinese ownership and operation of infrastructure relevant to military operations and exercises in or through Europe. Additionally, some of these investments provided Beijing with access to technologies and research vital to current and future European defense capabilities. More broadly, Chinese investment also strengthened Beijing's hand in several capitals across Europe, augmenting China's soft power and influence. The purpose of this study is to assess whether and how China is repeating the role it played in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis and the Great Recession, to identify related national security risks for the United States and key allies, and to offer recommendations on how to reduce these risks."
Army War College (U.S.). Press
Deni, John R.; Alden, Chris; Brattberg, Erik . . .
2022-05-04
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Venezuela: Pandemic and Foreign Intervention in a Collapsing Narcostate
From the Document: "In late June and early July, three separate events highlighted the growing risk that the political, health, economic, and security crisis in Venezuela could come to a head in the coming months, which would have grave consequences for its neighbors in the region. First, two figures affiliated with the regime, Diosdado Cabello and Tarek El-Aissami, tested positive for Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019], with the prospect that Nicolás Maduro himself--with whom El-Aissami met--could be next. Second, the Maduro regime excluded three of the four political parties opposing him--Popular Will, Justice First, and Democratic Action--from National Assembly elections to be held in December; it also replaced their leaders with regime loyalists, decisively closing one of the few remaining possibilities for a democratic exit to the political crisis in the country. And finally, a report by the United Nations Commission on Human Rights on illegal mining in Venezuela highlighted the degree to which the national territory is controlled not by Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó, but by criminal organizations. Beyond the greater Caracas area, Venezuela has devolved into a series of criminal fiefdoms bound not by an allegiance to Maduro or Guaidó but rather by a shared interest in the continued absence of effective governance; this enables those with guns to persist in their criminal enterprises, from narcotics and illegal mining to extorting desperate Venezuelans seeking to cross the border or to send remittances to their loved ones."
Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.)
Ellis, Robert Evan
2020-08
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Special Commentary: COVID-19: Shaping a Sicker, Poorer, More Violent, and Unstable Western Hemisphere
From the Document: "The COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic will have profound and enduring negative effects on Latin America and the Caribbean, significantly impacting the security, interests, and strategic position of the United States. Department of Defense and other US senior leaders should begin planning now to mitigate or manage the consequences. The effects of COVID-19 on Latin America and the Caribbean, as in many other parts of the developing world, will be far more significant than is commonly anticipated for two reasons. First, the virus will likely play out across the region over an extended length of time owing to a variety of factors discussed later. Second, the pandemic's mutually reinforcing health, economic, social, and political effects will combine to wreak far more havoc than anticipated in analyses that only consider disease propagation or effects on commerce."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2020-05-15
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Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment
From the "Brief Synopsis" on the Strategic Studies Institute website: "This monograph comparatively examines the content and country focus of high-level diplomacy for each of the two actors, as well as the volume and patterns of trade, the activities of Indian and Chinese companies in the region, and their relationship to their respective governments in eight sectors: (1) petroleum and mining; (2) agriculture; (3) construction; (4) manufacturing and retail; (5) banking and finance; (6) logistics and port operations; (7) technology such as telecommunications, space, and high technology; and, (8) military sales and activities. This monograph finds that Indian engagement with the region is significantly less than that of the People's Republic of China (PRC), and concentrated on a more limited subset of countries and sectors. In the commercial and military sector, it finds that the efforts by the Indian government to support their companies in the region are generally more modest and less coordinated than those of the PRC. Nonetheless, despite such limitations, the nature of Indian companies and their engagement with the region create opportunities for significant advances in the future, in a manner that is relatively well received by Latin American governments and societies."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2017-03
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Honduras: A Pariah State, or Innovative Solutions to Organized Crime Deserving U.S. Support?
"The public protests against Honduran President
Juan Orlando Hernandez, which peaked in July 2015,
highlighted perceptions of corruption by Hondurans
of their President and his government, and fostered
a new spirit of civic participation in Central America.
Outside the region, less noticed is that President
Hernandez has also made significant changes in the
strategy and institutions of the country in combating
the interrelated scourges of organized crime and
violent gangs, which have plagued Honduras as well
as its neighbors. That new approach, set forth in the
administration's interagency security plan and Operation
MORAZÁN, has produced notable successes.
With U.S. assistance, the National Interagency Security
Force (FUSINA) and the Honduran government
dismantled the leadership of the nation's two principal
family-based drug smuggling organizations, the
'Cachiros' and the 'Los Valles', and significantly reduced
the use of the national territory as a drug transit zone,
particularly narco flights. Murders in the country have
fallen from 86.5 per 100,000 in 2011, to 64 per 100,000
in 2014. [...] This monograph focuses on the evolution of the
transnational organized crime and gang challenges
in Honduras, the strategies and structures of the Hernandez
administration in combating them, associated
challenges, and recommendations for the U.S. military
and policymakers to support the country in such
efforts."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2016-06
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Mexico-New Directions, Continuity, and Obstacles in the Fight Against Transnational Organized Crime
"In comparing the perspectives of Mexican government officials, the Armed Forces and police to those of academics, journalists, teachers and taxi drivers, the range of perceptions regarding what is happening in the country is stunning. At the popular level, cynicism is profound regarding President Enrique Peña Nieto and his government, the principal political parties, and security and justice institutions at the national, state, and local levels. In the tradition of surreal drama reflected in Mexico's television art form, the 'telenovela', allegations abound of criminal connections involving President Peña Nieto, senior government, Army, and intelligence figures, and even the media outlet Televisa, and senior Mexican Clergy.
Without attempting to evaluate the veracity of such allegations, it is clear that Mexico's struggle against transnational organized crime is compounded by a profound crisis of public confidence. Nonetheless, beyond such cynicism, the Peña Nieto government has made important changes in both style and substance in combating criminal cartels, gangs, and related internal security challenges in Mexico."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2016-03-31
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Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States
"The U.S. response to the ever deepening political and economic crisis in Venezuela, and the regime's increasingly aggressive behavior toward its neighbors and the international community, is compelling evidence that the Barack Obama administration is sincere in respecting the sovereignty of nations of Latin America and the Caribbean, and allowing the region to address its own governance issues. While analysts in Washington, DC, and Latin America have long decried the involvement of Venezuelan officials in narcotrafficking, if assertions made by the highly credible 'Wall Street Journal' prove true regarding investigations by U.S. authorities into criminal activity by Venezuelan Parliamentary Speaker Diosdado Cabello, and other top Venezuelan political and military leaders, the scope of the problem that Venezuela represents for the region has reached a new low point. Although a very different situation in a very different time, it was the 1988 indictment of Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega on drug charges by grand juries in Miami and Tampa, FL, that paved the way for the U.S. invasion of Panama the following year. In the current era of U.S. respect for the sovereignty of the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean, with a very different set of considerations and strategic context, Venezuela's leadership will not come to the same end as that of Panama, holed up in a foreign diplomatic compound in Caracas while the 4th Psychological Operations Group blares rock music into their place of refuge and U.S. Special Envoy Tom Shannon negotiates their surrender. Yet, the situation is no less grave."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2015-07-10
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New Russian Engagement with Latin America: Strategic Position, Commerce, and Dreams of the Past
"In many ways, Russia's expanded engagement
in Latin America as a response to escalating tension
over the Ukraine was a repetition of its answer to U.S.
involvement in the 2008 conflict in the former Soviet
Republic of Georgia. In the 2008 conflict, as the U.S.
deployed naval forces to the Black Sea in response to
Russian support for the breakaway republics of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, Russia countered with a
series of actions in Latin America, including sending
nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers to Venezuela, from
where they conducted symbolically charged flights
around the Caribbean. This was followed a month
later by the deployment of a four-ship Russian naval
flotilla to the area to conduct military exercises with
the Venezuelan navy before making port calls in Cuba
and Nicaragua. [...] By comparison to the extensive literature on the
activities of the Soviet Union in the Western Hemisphere
during the Cold War, and by contrast to the
rapidly growing body of works on China's activities
in the region, very little beyond journalistic accounts
have been written to examine contemporary Russian
activities in Latin America and the Caribbean. As
Russia's reassertion of its global position and associated
tensions with the United States proceed apace,
a broad understanding of Russia in the Americas becomes
evermore important, both as a question of U.S.
national security and as an important dynamic shaping
the global geopolitical environment. This monograph
seeks to do so, focusing on the character of the
ongoing Russian re-engagement with Latin America
and the Caribbean and its implications for the
United States."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2015-06
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Russian Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: Return to the 'Strategic Game' in a Complex-Interdependent Post-Cold War World?
"In February 2015, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Latin America to meet with leaders and defense officials in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Although the visit included Russian participation in a Venezuelan military exercise, the focus of the meetings in all three countries was on access to ports and airfields in the region in order to support Russian military operations in the vicinity of the United States. The discussions bore the most fruit in Nicaragua, where Minister Shoigu signed an agreement to facilitate Russian access to the ports of Corinto and Bluefields, as well as strengthening counterdrug cooperation and discussing weapons sales."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2015-04-24
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Strategic Insights: The China-CELAC Summit: Opening a New Phase in China-Latin America-U.S. Relations?
"On January 8-9, 2015, Beijing hosted the first ever ministerial-level forum between the PRC and the nations of the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC). […] Since the People's Republic of China (PRC) began to open its economy in 1978, its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean has passed through four phases. Prior to its 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), it conducted limited engagements through principally diplomatic and cultural vehicles aimed at building relationships and winning diplomatic recognition among countries of the region. As its commerce with the region began to take off in the years following WTO membership, the PRC increasingly benefitted from commodity purchases and the prospect of access to its markets in gaining the attention of political and business elites in the region. With the 2008 global economic crisis, Chinese loans and investment, and the activities of its companies in the region, assumed increasing importance in the relationship. Yet despite the interest declared in China's 2008 white paper toward Latin America and the Caribbean, the Chinese government remained cautious in going beyond economic, scientific, and cultural bonds with the region. In 2015, this policy is changing as the PRC is increasingly leveraging its appeal as a market and resource provider and forging political relationships that threaten to erode the position of the United States in the region."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2015-01-27
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Strategic Insights: The Strategic Relevance of Latin America for the United States
"The purpose of this essay is not to argue for a significant redirection of material resources toward Latin America, or to impose a new 'Cold War' mentality on the region. Rather, it is to offer constructive recommendations for what responsible U.S. leaders and planners should consider, even as the United States continues to work toward productive and harmonious relationships with global actors such as Russia and China, and even as it continues to work with the region on the issues of democracy, development, security, and governance that are shared interest for all who share the Western Hemisphere."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2014-12-08
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Strategic Dimension of Chinese Engagement with Latin America
From the Conclusion: "In the realm of security and defense, the United States, the PRC [People's Republic of China], and Latin America are bound by interdependence. China's engagement with Latin America, both military and commercial, impacts the security and defense environment of the region, both positively and negatively. At the same time, the United States is linked to Latin America in geographic, economic, and human terms. What happens with respect to the security environment in the region impacts the United States. Finally, the US-PRC relationship affects, and is affected by, Latin America. If the global strategic competition between the United States and the PRC degenerates into a new geopolitical conflict, Latin America will be one of the battlefields in which that competition plays out. Reciprocally, the outcome of US-PRC interaction in Latin America has ramifications for the interaction between the two powers globally; if the US and China come to 'square off' over an issue in Latin America such as Chinese support for ALBA or the activities of Chinese telecommunications companies, it could propel the global PRC-US relationship toward conflict. On the other hand, if the US and the PRC find a path to cooperate and build confidence in Latin America, it could define the path for the two powers to avoid conflict as they necessarily co-exist and interact globally. In the process of working with the PRC in Latin America, the United States faces the risk of prematurely ceding strategic terrain to the PRC and thus accelerating its own global demise. Clearly, such collaboration much be managed with the utmost caution and with 'eyes wide open' on all sides. At the same time, the US may have few other good choices. Cautious collaboration with the PRC may be the best option that the United States has to positively impact the rules of the game in which the PRC presence in Latin America and the broader emerging global competition between the United States and the PRC play out."
William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies
Ellis, Robert Evan
2013
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China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position
The reemergence of China on the global stage is arguably one of the most important phenomena of our time. With its sustained high rates of economic growth, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has dramatically increased trade and investment flows with the rest of the world, including regions such as Latin America, with which it historically has had very little interaction. In many of these countries, the PRC has gone from having an almost negligible economic presence to replacing the United States as the number one or number two trading partner. Moreover, particularly since the end of the global financial crisis, Chinese companies, in coordination with the Chinese government and banks, have begun to make multibillion dollar loans and investments in Latin America, creating a rapidly expanding presence of Chinese companies and workers in the region in such sectors as construction, logistics, manufacturing, telecommunications, and retail. In terms of 'soft power,' the PRC has arguably captured the imaginations of Latin American political leaders, businessmen, and students as a power meriting attention and, in some cases, courtship. While a great deal of attention has been given to Chinese commercial activity in Latin America, very little has been written in the open press regarding Chinese military engagement with the region. While visits by senior military leaders and major arms sales are reported in the Latin American press, there has been, to date, almost no detailed, comparative analysis of the PRC-Latin America military relationship. This is particularly striking, given the emphasis placed on military relationships in determining whether Chinese engagement with the region constitutes a threat to U.S. national security interests."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2011-08
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U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America
"Ultimately, this monograph argues that increasing Chinese engagement with Latin America will make the nation both a powerful competitor and a potential partner for the United States in the Western Hemisphere. On one hand, China with major investments in Latin America and dependence on its material flows is likely to be a nation interested in reducing political instability, armed groups, and criminal activity in the region"rather than fueling radical populism and insurgency. On the other hand, the United States needs to consider to what degree it is willing to accept a China that has increasing leverage in its strategic neighborhood and its major trading area. Investment and trade presence leads to growing interest in the political course of the region, and now is the time for the United States to begin to consider how to constructively engage the Chinese in the Western Hemisphere."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Ellis, Robert Evan
2005-06
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