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Quest for Military Cooperation in North Africa: Prospects and Challenges
From the Summary: "This Letort Paper examines the North African security landscape in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, with particular focus on the security threats that prompted a couple of bilateral military-to-military cooperation arrangements among North African countries, and the relevance of these security dynamics to U.S. security and interests. It explains key issues and challenges impeding region-wide security cooperation encompassing all North African countries, and concludes with recommendations on how the United States could leverage its already existing military and development assistance to encourage close cooperation between North African countries, thus fostering the shared goals of security and stability."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed
2016-10
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Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role
"The East Mediterranean has been witnessing an unparalleled natural resource boom since the late-2000s, when Israel, followed by Cyprus, made its first significant offshore hydrocarbon discoveries in many years. These discoveries have since proven to be substantially larger than any other resources previously explored in the East Mediterranean Sea. At the time of this writing, they consist primarily of natural gas, although liquids are expected to be discovered offshore as well, including in the potentially hydrocarbon-rich waters of Lebanon and Syria. A 2010 U.S. Geological Survey suggests the Levant basin--the area including Cyprus and Israel's offshore zones, and the offshore and some onshore territories of Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories--could hold as much as 1.7 billion barrels of oil and up to 122 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, leaving as much as two-thirds of the region's potential resource base still undiscovered. […] This monograph will explore the strategic consequences of recent natural gas discoveries for the East Mediterranean security landscape, through the lens of U.S. security interests in the region. It first provides an overview of recent hydrocarbon discoveries and their significance for the region's resource holders; this is followed by an exploration of the possible implications of these resources for the region's security landscape, their potential to fuel conflict, and options to foster closer regional cooperation and trade integration. We then look at the role U.S. diplomacy and military support could play to ensure continued stability, security, and regional support within the East Mediterranean's shifting geoeconomic framework."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed; El-Katiri, Laura
2014-12
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Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond
From the summary: "As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party. […] Completed in 2013, this monograph does not include the most recent political developments in all of the three countries under discussion, but it establishes a number of important and persistent themes. It provides an overview of the factors behind the victory of Islamist parties in Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, and continues by examining their performance in power in different policy areas, with a particular focus on foreign policy. It argues that policymakers should not follow the popular trend of reducing the delicate political transition underway in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco to simple ideological differences between Islamist parties and their secular opponents. Instead, this is a reflection of an ongoing struggle between traditional elites."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed
2014-07
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United States-Gulf Cooperation: Council Security Cooperation in a Mulipolar World
From the Summary: "Profound changes in regional geopolitical dynamics in the Arabian Gulf since the early-2000s render the region a highly challenging environment for U.S. foreign policy and military engagement. At a time of continuing domestic instability in Iraq and an increasingly isolated Iran, the geopolitical weight of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has risen dramatically over the past 10 years; the GCC states' enormous economic power, coupled to some of the most stable political systems in the entire Middle East and North Africa region, call for continuously close U.S.-GCC relations in the security sphere as an important element in U.S. foreign policy. […] This monograph analyzes the security and economic dynamics of the region as a whole to assess the challenges to the security and military relationship between the GCC and the United States and to propose policy options for the United States to continue to derive maximum benefit from stable and reliable partnerships in the Gulf."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed
2014-10
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State-Building Challenges in a Post-Revolution Libya
"A peaceful transition to a new form of government in Libya is of vital importance not only to the people of Libya, but to neighboring countries--and to security in the broad sense much farther afield. Yet, at the time of this writing, the new interim leadership remains fragile, with limited capacity and sovereignty, and the inability to enforce security is still a critical challenge. There is a risk of conditions being created that could lead to Libya becoming a fragile or indeed a failed state. Despite the mitigation of the threat from supporters of the old regime, the interim government has no monopoly on the legitimate use of violence. The security risks of Libya's uncontrolled armed militias are not restricted to within national borders. By jeopardizing state-building efforts, clashes between militias or between militias and government authorities threaten to undermine the security of neighboring countries and the international community. Risks include renewed waves of refugee flows to Tunisia, Egypt, and across the Mediterranean to Italy and beyond, and continuing disruption to oil production, which will once again deprive the international market of Libyan oil and harm the economic interests of U.S. and European companies. Furthermore, the current lack of a capable national army leaves Libya an open playing field to be exploited by international criminal or terrorist groups active in the region."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
El-Katiri, Mohammed
2012-10
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