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Denial and Jeopardy: Deterring Iranian Use of NBC Weapons
This study is part of a larger effort at the NDU Center for Counterproliferation Research to identify regional strategies that contribute to enhanced deterrence of employment of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons and their means of delivery. This particular assessment of Iran and the challenges of deterring its use of NBC weapons was the annex to a broader evaluation of regional deterrence, which includes Iran and North Korea as case studies. Both the broader deterrence paper and the North Korean case study will be published separately. While much unclassified literature is available on both deterrence theory and Iran, the present study was facilitated by the fairly narrow scope of the questions being asked about Iran: what makes Iran easier or harder to deter, and what can the United States do to enhance our ability to deter Iran's use of NBC weapons? The Islamic Republic of Iran presents a particular challenge to the Western analyst: Iranian leaders do not see the world from the Western view and have demonstrated a willingness to undertake actions at times seemingly contrary to their national interests and at a cost other states would find unacceptable. This does not make them irrational or necessarily undeterrable. The factors that influence their cost/benefit calculations, however, may be very different than those that have guided Western concepts of deterrence over the past 50 years. Thus it was important throughout the research to make every effort to avoid imposing Western perspectives and values on the evidence. Conclusions based on superimposed but inaccurate perspectives are often wrong and, in light of the need to deter Iranian NBC use, could be dangerously wrong in the not-distant future.
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Desutter, Paula A., 1958-
1995
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Deterring Iranian NBC Use
As the United States seeks to deter Iranian aggression in general, and its use of NBC weapons in particular, it is prudent to try to understand the legal and moral traditions that provide a context for Iranian decisions about war. Shiite tradition differs from Western "just war" tradition. While Iranian Shiite interpretations of Islam forbid declaration of offensive religious war, there is a standing authority and indeed an obligation to use force to defend Islam. Such use of force is not considered to be offensive since the persecution of believers is the same as an attack. A jihad (holy war) could thus be readily justified as "defensive." This might mistakenly lead some to believe that Iran would only fight 'defensively' in the sense that it would not strike first and would see NBC weapons strictly as weapons of last resort. However, as a practical matter, virtually any act contrary to Iran's interests taken by the West (such as the U.S. embargo) could be defined by the mullahs as "persecution." Further, while Western just war tradition obliges restraint in the prosecution of war, particularly the requirement that combatants limit, to the greatest degree possible, the impact on non-combatants, once a defensive jihad is declared against disbelievers, there need be little restraint in its prosecution. Employment of NBC weapons, even against civilians-let alone the military-could be justified. Thus there are few apparent moral or religious impediments should Iran choose to employ NBC weapons against the United States. Assessments which fail to recognize that the Iranian justification for war has a significantly lower threshold than that established by Western just war doctrine could be dangerously misleading.
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Desutter, Paula A., 1958-
1997-04
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Strategic Assessment 1997: Flashpoints and Force Structure
This strategic assessment discusses transnational problems such as terrorism, crime and refugees; troubled states of the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle Eastern Radicalism; threat assessment and force structures as well as regional flashpoints in Russia, Europe, China, Japan and North America.
National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies
Desutter, Paula A., 1958-
1997
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