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How Changes in Immigration Policy Might Affect the Federal Budget
From the Summary: "During the past two years, the Congress has considered proposals to modify the nation's immigration system. The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744), passed by the Senate in June 2013, addresses multiple facets of immigration policy, including changes to the existing visa system, improvements in border security and law enforcement, and changes to the status of people who currently live in the country without legal authorization. Other proposals have focused on one component of immigration policy- for example, improving border security or changing certain aspects of the visa system. Whether the proposals involve broad or narrow changes to immigration policy, they could have a variety of consequences for both citizens and noncitizens, for the federal government, and for state and local governments. This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report examines some of those proposals and how such changes would affect the federal budget."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2015-01
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Letter to the Honorable Jeff Sessions Regarding S. 744
"This letter responds to your request that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) show the effect that S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act, as passed by the Senate, would have on the federal budget excluding changes in direct spending and revenues for the Social Security and Medicare Part A trust funds. In the cost estimate for S. 744 as passed by the Senate, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimated that the effects of enacting the legislation on revenues and direct spending would reduce deficits by $158 billion over the 2014--2023 period and by $685 billion over the 2024--2033 period; those estimates are unchanged. Those total effects on the deficit reflect estimated cash flows related to Social Security and Part A of Medicare as well as estimated cash flows associated with other revenues and direct spending. As shown in the attached table, CBO and JCT estimate that the act's effects on those two programs would reduce budget deficits by $260 billion over the 2014--2023 period and by $715 billion over the following decade. Thus, excluding the act's effects on direct spending and revenues for the (off-budget) Social Security trust funds and the (on-budget) Medicare Part A trust fund, CBO and JCT estimate that the remaining effects from enacting S. 744 would amount to a deficit increase of $102 billion over the 2014--2023 period and a deficit increase of $30 billion over the 2024--2033 period."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
Elmendorf, Douglas W.
2013-07-25
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Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act
"The Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744) would revise laws governing immigration and the enforcement of those laws, allowing for a significant increase in the number of noncitizens who could lawfully enter the United States permanently or temporarily. The bill also would create a process for many currently unauthorized residents to gain legal status, subject to their meeting conditions specified in the bill. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have prepared an estimate of the cost of that legislation to the federal government, including projections of the bill's effects on both federal spending and federal revenues. That cost estimate reflects some, but not all, of the effects that S. 744 would have on the economy. This supplemental report provides estimates of the overall economic impact of the legislation and of the incremental federal budgetary effects of changes in the economy that the cost estimate does not reflect. Ascertaining the effects of immigration policies on the economy and the federal budget is complicated and highly uncertain, even in the short run, and that task is even more difficult for longer periods; for that reason, this report addresses the next 20 years but does not attempt to look over a longer horizon."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2013-06
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Description of the Immigrant Population-2013 Update
"In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated the information in its June 2011 report 'A Description of the Immigrant Population: An Update'. The data and time available have allowed for updating 15 of the 20 exhibits contained in that report and adding one new exhibit. Those exhibits that could be updated in their entirety have been, and a few others have been updated partially. In a few instances, the period covered was altered to focus on the span since the previous report. CBO's updated exhibits regarding the immigrant population are attached to this letter, along with a list of the agency's recent reports and selected recent cost estimates for legislation related to immigration."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2013-05-08
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How CBO Would Analyze the Economic Effects of Proposals to Make Major Changes in Immigration Policy
From the letter of Douglas W. Elmendorf: "As you requested, this letter provides information about how the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) would analyze the economic effects of proposals to make major changes in immigration policy. The details of such an analysis would depend importantly on the specific provisions of any proposed legislation. Further, because immigration legislation can be quite complicated, CBO expects that preparing such an analysis would be time-consuming. CBO has not yet completed an analysis of any immigration legislation currently being considered by the Congress. Previous estimates prepared by CBO illustrate the agency's general methodological approach to such analysis. Those estimates also provide an idea of the potential magnitude of the economic effects of large-scale changes to immigration policy as well as the resulting budgetary impact of such changes."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
Elmendorf, Douglas W.
2013-05-02
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Description of the Immigrant Population: An Update
"In 2009, about 39 million foreign-born people lived in the United States, making up more than 12 percent of the U.S. population - the largest share since 1920. Naturalized citizens (foreign born people who have fulfilled the requirements of U.S. citizenship) accounted for about 17 million of the total. Noncitizens (foreign-born people authorized to live and work in the United States either temporarily or permanently and people who are not authorized to live or work in the United States) accounted for about 22 million of the total. About half of the noncitizens were people without authorization to live or work in the United States, either temporarily or permanently. In 2009, about 38 percent of foreign-born people in the United States were from Mexico or Central America; the next-largest group came from Asia and accounted for 27 percent of the total foreign born population. In that year, about one-fifth of naturalized U.S. citizens were from Mexico or Central America; more than one-third were from Asia. About half of the noncitizens living in the United States in 2009 were from Mexico or Central America, and about one-fifth were from Asia. An estimated 62 percent of noncitizens unauthorized to live in the United States were from Mexico and another 12 percent were from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
Alsalam, Nabeel; Schwabish, Jonathan A.
2011-06
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Migrants' Remittances and Related Economic Flows
"Migrants to the United States often send money to people in their home country or take it with them when they return home. Those transfers can involve sending money through banks or other institutions to family members or others in the home country, making financial investments in the home country, or returning to the home country while retaining bank accounts or claims on other financial assets in the United States. All three types of actions are similar in their economic effects, even though only transfers of money through banks and other financial institutions to foreign individuals are commonly thought of as migrants' remittances. As one of the most important destinations of global migration, the United States is the largest national source of remittances. The opportunity to send or bring remittances home is one of the important motivations for migration, and policies that affect migration to the United States could affect outflows of remittances. In turn, the flow of remittances can affect economic growth, labor markets, poverty rates, and future migration rates in the United States as well as in recipient countries. This document updates and expands upon the Congressional Budget Office's previous analysis of remittances--Remittances: International Payments by Migrants (May 2005)--and presents data through 2009. The new presentation provides a better view of people's total transfers of money between the United States and other countries but, because of changes in the way the data are collected and reported, does not provide as much information as was previously available on the portion of those transfers that is attributable to migrants."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2011-02
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Immigration Policy in the United States: An Update
"This document updates the Congressional Budget Office's February 2006 paper Immigration Policy in the United States. It presents data through 2009 on permanent and temporary admissions of foreign nationals to the United States, the number and types of visas issued, the naturalization of residents, and enforcement of immigration laws-and makes comparisons with 2004, which was the most recent year for which most data were reported in the earlier paper."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2010-12
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CBO Paper: The Role of Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market: An Update
"People born in other countries are a growing presence in the U.S. labor force. In 1994, 1 in 10 people in the U.S. labor force was born elsewhere, but in 2009, 1 in 7 was foreign born. About 40 percent of the foreign-born labor force in 2009 was from Mexico and Central America, and more than 25 percent was from Asia. This document updates the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) November 2005 paper The Role of Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market. That earlier report included data through 2004; this update, the first of several on various aspects of immigration, incorporates data through 2009. It focuses on the growing number of foreign-born workers, the countries from which they have come, their educational attainment, the types of jobs they hold, and their earnings. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, this report makes no recommendations. Nabeel Alsalam of CBO's Health and Human Resources Division wrote the report. Sarah Axeen provided research assistance. The report benefited from the comments of Gregory Acs, Melissa Merrell, Jonathan Morancy, David Rafferty, Jonathan Schwabish, and Bruce Vavrichek. John Skeen edited the report, and Sherry Snyder and Kate Kelly proofread it. Maureen Costantino and Jeanine Rees prepared the report for publication, and Maureen Costantino designed the cover. Monte Ruffin produced the printed copies, and Simone Thomas produced the electronic version for CBO's Web site (www.cbo.gov)."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2010-07
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CBO Testimony: Budgetary Impact of Current and Proposed Border Security and Immigration Policies: Statement of Paul R. Cullinan, Chief, Human Resources Cost Estimates Unit, before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate, August 30, 2006
In this statement, Paul R. Cullinan discusses the budgetary and economic effects of immigration and border security policies. Major points discussed include: Immigration reform and border enforcement effects on federal spending and revenues; changes in immigration policy; and immigration and financial outlook of Social Security system.
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2006-08-30
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CBO Paper: Projections of Net Migration to the United States
"Estimates of the medium- and long-term economic and budget outlook rely on projections of the size and composition of the nation's population. One challenge to such projections is forecasting how many immigrants will come to and stay in the United States. Because most immigrants are of working age when they arrive, rates of net migration are critical in determining the growth of the labor force. Indeed, over the past decade, foreign-born workers accounted for more than half of the growth of the labor force. Moreover, the composition of the immigrant population could also make a difference to the outlook. This paper examines the projection methodologies and outlines the most recent projections of the Social Security trustees and the Census Bureau. The trustees' projections are higher than those of the Census Bureau in the near term but lower after 2025. The paper then addresses issues about those projections raised by the 2003 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods. In the panel's view, both the trustees' and the Census Bureau's projections underestimate future net migration. The Social Security trustees and the Census Bureau, along with CBO, are currently evaluating the technical panel's recommendations. Finally, the paper discusses factors that might influence the level and composition of net migration. In principle, one might be able to improve on current projections by explicitly modeling key determinants of both the potential supply of immigrants and the potential demand for immigrant workers. Those theoretical insights may be helpful in assessing broad trends, though at present they appear to be of limited value for quantitative projections."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2006-06
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CBO Paper: Immigration Policy in the United States
"Immigration has been a subject of legislation since the nations founding. In 1790, the Congress established a formal process enabling the foreign born to become U.S. citizens. Just over a century later, in response to increasing levels of immigration, the federal government assumed the task of reviewing and processing all immigrants seeking admission to the United States. Since then, numerous changes have been made to U.S. immigration policy. This paper, requested by the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee, is part of a series of reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on immigration. The paper focuses on the evolution of U.S. immigration policy and presents statistics on the various categories of lawful admission and enforcement of the nations immigration laws. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, the paper makes no recommendations."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2006-02
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CBO Study: Long-Term Budget Outlook: December 2005
"As health care costs continue to grow faster than the economy and the baby-boom generation nears eligibility for Social Security and Medicare, the United States faces inevitable decisions about the fundamentals of its spending policies and its means of financing those policies. This Congressional Budget Office report looks at a range of possible paths for federal spending and revenues through 2050 and combines them into various hypothetical scenarios." This report addresses economic and fiscal implications of federal budgetary choices, the long-term outlook for social security, the long-term outlook for medicare and Medicaid, the long-term outlook for other federal spending, and the long-term outlook for revenues.
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2005-12
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CBO Paper: Global Population Aging in the 21st Century and Its Economic Implications
"This paper, requested by the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee, is part of a series of reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that presents facts and research on immigration. It describes historical and projected population trends in different regions of the world and discusses current research on the international economic implications of those trends. Such information will help inform CBO's projections of the domestic and international economies and of the federal budget. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, this paper makes no recommendations."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2005-12
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CBO Paper: Role of Immigrants in the U.S. Labor Market
This report addresses the impact of foreign-born workers on the U.S. labor market. "The role of immigrants in the U.S. labor market has long generated substantial interest among policymakers. Lawmakers have considered a broad range of issues concerning foreign-born workers, from the number of immigrants permitted to enter the United States and the criteria for determining who is admitted to the rules governing their employment and myriad questions related to undocumented workers. Bills introduced in the 109th Congress, for example, would alter the laws governing the admission of temporary workers under the H-2A program for agricultural workers and the H-2B program for other workers; change the requirements for gaining permanent admission to the United States; and take steps to reduce illegal immigration. President George W. Bush has called for a new temporary guest worker program that would provide temporary legal status to certain foreign-born workers who are working in the United States without authorization."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2005-11
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CBO Paper: Remittances: International Payments by Migrants
"Immigration increases the pressures for federal, state, and local government spending. However, immigrants also contribute to the economy and pay taxes. A major question is whether immigration has the potential to lessen the strain on the federal budget as the baby-boom generation retires. Another important question is how immigration to the United States affects the countries from which the immigrants come. This paper, requested by the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Committee, is the second of several reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) presenting the facts and research on immigration to help inform the agency's projections of the federal budget and the economy. The paper focuses on remittances - payments sent by immigrant workers back to their home countries. It discusses how those payments are classified and estimated, how remittances from the United States compare with other international financial flows (such as exports or foreign direct investment) and with remittances from other countries, what channels are used to send remittances, and what effects remittances have on the United States and recipient countries."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2005-05
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CBO Paper: A Description of the Immigrant Population
"This paper is the first of several reports by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) intended to present the facts and research on immigration to help inform the agency's projections of the federal budget and the economy. The paper focuses on the characteristics of immigrants, including where they come from, where they reside, and how those patterns have changed over time, as well as immigrants' level of education, the industries and occupations in which they work, and their earnings. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective, nonpartisan analysis, this paper makes no recommendations."
United States. Congressional Budget Office
2004-11
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