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Medicaid and Fiscal Federalism During the COVID-19 Pandemic
From the Abstract: "We analyze the effects of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic on state and local government finances, with an emphasis on health spending needs and the role of the Medicaid program. We arrive at three conclusions. First, we find that nationwide, and over the entirety of the federal budget window, the enhanced federal matching funds are of roughly the same magnitude as expected increases in state Medicaid costs. There is a difference in timing, however, as projected relief funds are more concentrated in the near term than projected spending needs. Second, we show that there is substantial variation in states' exposure to increases in Medicaid program costs. Third, we evaluate the extent to which federal aid has been targeted at states with large increases in Medicaid costs. We show that the enhanced Medicaid matching funds are quite weakly correlated with variations in states' cost increases. In contrast, the state aid formula in the American Recovery Plan Act appears, to at least a moderate degree, to direct dollars toward states with large increases in their Medicaid enrollments."
National Bureau of Economic Research
Clemens, Jeffrey; Ippolito, Benedic N.; Veuger, Stan
2021-04
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Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues
From the Abstract: "We assess the Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic's implications for state government sales and income tax revenues. We estimate that the economic declines implied by recent forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office will lead to a shortfall of roughly $106 billion in states' sales and income tax revenues for the 2021 fiscal year. This is equivalent to 0.5 percent of GDP [gross domestic product] and 11.5 percent of our pre-Covid sales and income tax projection. Additional tax shortfalls from the second quarter of 2020 may amount to roughly $42 billion. We discuss how these revenue declines fit into several pieces of the broader economic context. These include other revenues (e.g., university tuition and fees) that are also at risk, as well as assets (e.g., pension plan holdings) that are at risk. Further dimensions of context include support enacted through several pieces of federal legislation, as well as spending needs necessitated by the public health crisis itself."
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Veuger, Stan; Clemens, Jeffrey
2020-06-22
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COVID-19 Pandemic and the Revenues of State and Local Governments: An Update
From the Document: "This report provides estimates of the revenue shortfalls state and local governments are likely to experience due to the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic. Our estimates apply to the 2021 fiscal year, which extends from the third quarter of 2020 through the second quarter of 2021 in most states. Nationally, we estimate that state governments' sales and income taxes will fall short of January projections by roughly $105 billion. Combined shortfalls in all state and local government revenue streams are likely to be on the order of $240 billion for the current fiscal year."
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Clemens, Jeffrey; Veuger, Stan
2020-09
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Politics and the Distribution of Federal Funds: Evidence from Federal Legislation in Response to COVID-19
From the Abstract: "COVID-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] relief legislation offers a unique setting to study how political representation shapes the distribution of federal assistance to state and local governments. We provide evidence of a substantial small-state bias: an additional Senator or Representative per million residents predicts an additional $670 dollars in aid per capita across the four relief packages. Alignment with the Democratic party predicts increases in states' allocations through legislation designed after the January 2021 political transition. This benefit of partisan alignment operates through the American Rescue Plan Act's sheer size, as well as the formulas through which it distributed transportation and general relief funds."
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Clemens, Jeffrey; Veuger, Stan
2021-05
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