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Jihadist Maritime Strategy: Waging a Guerrilla War at Sea
"Jihadists have long presented a threat at sea as well as on land but although jihadist military strategy has been the object of considerable analysis and writing over the years, it has been the land-based aspect that has drawn the most attention, while the jihadists' maritime strategy has been relatively neglected. The present study seeks to focus attention on and to better understand the maritime component of jihadist military strategy in order to stimulate thinking and discussion that will help formulate more effective responses to this threat. [...] The thesis of the study is that over the years, rather than maritime attacks being random (apart from some spontaneous lone-wolf attacks), discernible patterns have emerged and that jihadists-and al-Qaeda, in particular-have developed an increasingly coherent maritime strategy. The intent here is to provide an analytical reference source for professional military education, as well as to stimulate thinking and discussion there and in the policy and academic sectors and, at the same time, to develop ideas on how best to deal with this threat."
Marine Corps University (U.S.)
Cigar, Norman L.
2017-05
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Tribal Militias: An Effective Tool to Counter Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates?
From the brief synopsis, "Despite over a decade of open war, dealing with Al-Qaida and its affiliates in the Middle East is likely to remain a concern for the foreseeable future and will pose a challenge requiring the use of any tool that is likely to be effective in meeting the threat. Developing effective tools to counter Al-Qaida's continuing presence in the social environment of tribal militias, therefore, is a priority and requires understanding Al-Qaida's critical vulnerabilities when it operates in those societies and developing the means to counter Al-Qaida's efforts. Recommendations for policy where the United States is a tribal militia's direct patron, as well as recommendations for policy when the United States is in a supporting role to the local government are included."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Cigar, Norman L.
2014-11
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Enemy is US: How Allied and U.S. Strategy in Yemen Contributes to AQAP's Survival
"In this monograph, Dr. Norman Cigar provides Special Operations Forces (SOF) commanders and planners with an overview of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's (AQAP) operational framework and presence in the area. He analyzes the strategic and operational issues that confront policymakers in responding to the threat posed by AQAP within Yemen's challenging social, political, and physical environment. This monograph presents the far-reaching implications for SOF, from recognizing the nuances of Yemen's tribal-based human terrain to understanding key relationships, rivalries, and competition between AQAP and other Yemeni players. AQAP will likely continue to represent a threat to U.S. interests and regional stability for the foreseeable future."
Joint Special Operations University (U.S.)
Cigar, Norman L.
2018-06
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Al-Qaida After Ten Years of War: A Global Perspective of Successes, Failures, and Prospects
"The papers that follow are the proceedings of the Marine Corps University conference 'Al-Qaida after Ten Years of War: A Global Perspective of Successes, Failures, and Prospects.' Our intent in holding this conference was to comprehend the multidimensional aspects of Al-Qaida's threat in various theaters where it has operated over the past decade since the events of 11 September 2001, or where it may still do so in the future. We sought a net assessment of what Al-Qaida has done successfully and where it has failed in different parts of the world in order to develop a better understanding of how to deal more effectively with the challenge that Al-Qaida still poses for international security. We were fortunate to be able to host a broad spectrum of leading authorities on Al-Qaida from both the United States and the regions under discussion who represented academia, the government, the military, think tanks, and the media. The intent was to use a comparative regional approach to benefit from the expertise of the participants on each geographic/cultural theater in order to bring into focus Al-Qaida's objectives, strategy, and policy over the past decade and to provide guideposts for Al-Qaida's future activity in those regions. Understanding the particular dynamics of each theater and how each theater contributes to Al-Qaida's overall strategy can help clarify the needs for continuing security efforts, as well as help define the roles that the Marine Corps, other agencies in the U.S. government, and our friends and allies must continue to play."
Marine Corps University (U.S.). Press
Cigar, Norman L.; Kramer, Stephanie E.
2011
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Saddam Hussein's Nuclear Vision: An Atomic Sword and Shield for Conquest
"This study examines why Saddam Hussein pursued nuclear weapons and, as a basic aspect of that question, how he might have employed that capability had he acquired it, whether for deterrence, warfighting, or something else. As the key decision maker in Iraq, Saddam's own thinking was central. His perception of regional threats, primarily from Iran and Israel,were a prime motivator. In addition, Saddam viewed acquiring nuclear weapons as a potent vehicle to help legitimize his regime and burnish his personal image as leader both at home and in the Arab World, as a modernizer and defender of national interests.A better understanding of the Iraqi case can also clarify the enduring issues related to how regional leaders may view nuclear weapons in this world of looming proliferation."
Marine Corps University (U.S.)
Cigar, Norman L.
2011
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Al-Qaida, the Tribes and the Government: Lessons and Prospects for Iraq's Unstable Triangle
"Dealing with tribal systems has posed a continuing challenge to Al-Qaida as it operates in the Middle East and Africa, where a tribal environment is still an integral part of society in many of the countries. How Al-Qaida views and manages the tribal system within its individual areas of operation, in many cases, can mean the difference between success and failure. The jihadist movement cannot ignore this issue, which has been a major factor affecting its prospects, especially in Iraq. Al-Qaida, in its campaign in post-Saddam Iraq, has had to deal with social realities as part of the human terrain that it has engaged, and the tribal sector represents the bulk of the rural and a sizeable portion even of the urban areas. Given the centrality of the tribes in the country's political and social life, Al-Qaida recognized that Iraq's Sunni tribes would be a critical factor in its overall strategy. However, interacting with the tribes has often proven frustrating and problematical for Al- Qaida and has necessitated adaptation and a rethinking of its basic assumptions and approach to the issue over time. The thesis of this study is that, after painful lessons on the ground, Al-Qaida has sought to learn and to adapt its universalist Islamic ideology to local social and political realities. The organization has progressively adopted a more pragmatic approach toward the tribal factor, although such an approach cannot completely escape its central ideological assumptions and limitations."
Marine Corps University (U.S.). Middle East Studies
Cigar, Norman L.
2011-09
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Iraq's Shia Warlords and Their Militias: Political and Security Challenges and Options
"As America's de facto co-belligerents who often share the same battlespace in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the presence and activity of Iraq's Shia warlords and their militias have an impact on U.S. interests and policies at both the strategic and operational levels. The practical objective of this monograph is to provide a better understanding of the Shia militia phenomenon and to highlight the factors with which U.S. policymakers and U.S. Army planners and commanders will have to deal with respect to operations in Iraq."
Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute
Cigar, Norman L.
2015-06
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