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Centre for European Policy Studies [website]
"Founded in Brussels in 1983, the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) is among the most experienced and authoritative think tanks operating in the European Union today. CEPS serves as a leading forum for debate on EU affairs, but its most distinguishing feature lies in its strong in-house research capacity, complemented by an extensive network of partner institutes throughout the world. CEPS' funding is obtained from a variety of sources, including membership fees, project research, foundation grants, conferences fees, publication sales and an annual grant from the European Commission."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
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European Green Deal After Corona: Implications for EU Climate Policy
From the Document: "Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. The post-corona recovery can both put the EU's decarbonisation progress back on track - after low-carbon investments will inevitably take a hit - but the EU's Green Deal proposals can likewise support the general economic recovery. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world. As time passes, the re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal's promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. The period we have until the relaunch should be used to develop a new agenda. These ideas will not per se be off-the-shelf but go beyond current solutions for decarbonisation. Instead of tinkering around the margins, the EU should focus on transformational technologies, and for example go big on low-carbon infrastructure, efficient buildings, and lead markets to boost demand for climate-neutral industry."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Elkerbout, Milan; Egenhofer, Christian, 1960-; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge . . .
2020-04
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Protecting Employment in the Time of Coronavirus: What is the EU's €100 Billion Going to Buy?
From the Abstract: "This paper briefly analyses the proposal by the European Commission to establish SURE, the 'European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency'. The SURE facility would borrow up to €100 billion on the financial markets, lend it to member states to finance short-time work schemes and similar measures, using guarantees from the member states themselves. The analysis makes the point that the scheme should be seen, first and foremost, as a proof of European solidarity to counter hostile propaganda from Russia and China about the EU's ineffectiveness. It can also have an impact on national policies to deal with the coronavirus and to assist the most damaged and/or fiscally weak member states, but this effect is likely to be limited. Potentially, the most important feature of SURE is that it explicitly refers to itself as the forerunner of a future European Unemployment Insurance scheme."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Beblavý, Miroslav
2020-04
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Showing True Illiberal Colours: Rule of Law vs Orbán's Pandemic Politics
From the Abstract: "This Policy Insight examines the Hungarian government's responses to the coronavirus pandemic and their impacts on the rule of law. It argues that the pandemic does not create autocracies, but it shows more clearly their true illiberal colours. The paper assesses the scope of the so-called 'Enabling Act' granting the government the power to rule by decree and its damaging implications for the effective democratic control of executive actions and other checks and balances such as media pluralism and freedom of association. The analysis argues that the Hungarian government is unequivocally violating the EU founding principles enshrined in Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union and its current pandemic politics are making this ever more transparent. The paper recommends more EU centralisation and interinstitutional cooperation in the assessment and scrutiny of all member states' compliance with the trinity of the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights. It concretely suggests first, the timely enforcement of EU standards by the European Commission and the Luxembourg Court through rule of law infringement proceedings, and second, the adoption of an interinstitutional EU Periodic Review (EUPR) on the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Bárd, Petra; Carrera, Sergio
2020-04
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How is EU Cooperation on the COVID-19 Crisis Perceived in Member States?
From the Document: "The crisis caused by the spread of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] has demonstrated how difficult European cooperation can be, especially in policy areas where the EU has only a legal competence to support member states. Some commentators have suggested that this marks the death knell of European integration, and even the most optimistic of them recognise it as one of the greatest challenges the EU has ever faced in terms of crisis management and demonstrating supranational added value. In general, all member states were initially inward-looking in their reactions; they unilaterally closed borders and focused on crisis management at home. European solidarity has largely been absent. Ultimately, however, the lockdown realities across Europe are quite similar. This instinctive self-preservation tells only one side of the story, however. As the virus affected all EU countries - albeit at different stages on the infection curve - it began to threaten the basics of the European economy and its financial system."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Russack, Sophia; Blockmans, Steven
2020-04-21
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Monitoring Covid-19 Contagion Growth in Europe
From the Abstract: "We present an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 [coronavirus disease] contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations, allowing for the comparative evaluation of policy approaches. We present timely results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus. From the findings, we draw four main conclusions. First, countries experiencing an explosive process (currently France, Italy and Spain), combined with high persistence of contagion shocks (observed in most countries under investigation), require swift policy measures such as quarantine, diffuse testing and even complete lockdown. Second, in countries with high persistence but lower contagion growth (currently Germany) careful monitoring should be coupled with at least 'mild' restrictions such as physical distancing or isolation of specific areas. Third, in some countries, such as Norway and Denmark, where trends seem to be relatively under control and depend on daily contingencies, with low persistence, the approach to restrictive measures should be more cautious since there is a risk that social costs outweigh the benefits. Fourth, countries with a limited set of preventive actions in place (such as the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) may revise their positions if high values of contagion remain."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Agosto, Arianna; Campmas, Alexandra; Giudici, Paolo . . .
2020-03
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Chronicle of a Pandemic Foretold
From the Abstract: "In just a few weeks, COVID-19 [coronavirus disease] appeared in China and quickly spread to the rest of the world, including Europe and the United States. Many have rushed to describe the outbreak as a 'black swan' - an unpredictable event with extremely severe consequences. However, COVID-19 was not only predictable ex post: it was amply predicted ex ante. This allows us to draw some preliminary lessons: [1] First, economic policy will need to shift from its current focus on efficiency, towards a greater emphasis on resilience and sustainability. [2] Second, a more centralised governance to address health emergencies is needed. [3] Third, Europe should create a centre for the prevention of large-scale risks. [4] Fourth, digital technologies, if handled with care, can be an important part of both a mitigation and a response strategy. [5] Fifth, Europe should improve its science advice and communication functions. Finally, there are many ways to pursue enhanced resilience and responsiveness, but not all of them are compatible with sustainability and democratic values. The challenge is to find an adequate policy mix, which safeguards individual rights and liberties, protects the economy, and at the same time strengthens government preparedness for cases of epidemics and pandemics."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Renda, Andrea; Castro, Rosa J.
2020-03
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Great Lockdown: Was it Worth it?
From the Abstract: "What the IMF [International Monetary Fund] calls the 'great lockdown' has thrown Europe and the global economy into a deep recession. When putting their countries into lockdown, governments essentially pushed the panic button, mostly in the face of rising fatalities. Was this the right choice? The answer to this question is usually framed in terms of the lives saved versus jobs lost. However, a closer look at the actual expenses for medical care that the pandemic has engendered so far and a bottom-up calculation for hospitalisation costs suggests that the economic costs of the great lockdown, while very large, might still be lower than the medical costs that an unchecked spread of the virus would have caused. There might thus be no need to assign an economic value to the lives saved to come to the conclusion that an unchecked spread of Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] would have led to even higher costs than the great lockdown."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Gros, Daniel
2020-05
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Love Thy Neighbour? Coronavirus Politics and Their Impact on EU Freedoms and Rule of Law in the Schengen Area
From the Executive Summary: "Restrictions on international and intra-EU traffic of persons have been at the heart of the political responses to the coronavirus pandemic. Border controls and suspensions of entry and exist have been presented as key policy priorities to prevent the spread of the virus in the EU. These measures pose however fundamental questions as to the 'raison d'être' of the Union, and the foundations of the Single Market, the Schengen system and European citizenship. They are also profoundly intrusive regarding the fundamental rights of individuals and in many cases derogate domestic and EU rule of law checks and balances over executive decisions. This Paper examines the legality of cross-border mobility restrictions introduced in the name of COVID-19 [coronavirus disease]. It provides an in-depth typology and comprehensive assessment of measures including the reintroduction of internal border controls, restrictions of specific international traffic modes and intra-EU and international 'travel bans'. Many of these have been adopted in combination with declarations of a 'state of emergency'. The Schengen Borders Code and the EU Free Movement Directive 2004/38 foresee the possibility to derogate or apply exceptions to internal border control-free on the basis of public health grounds. However, this does not mean a 'carte blanche.'"
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Carrera, Sergio; Luk, Ngo Chun
2020-04
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Compulsory Licensing and Access to Future Covid-19 Vaccines
From the Abstract: "Since the recent World Health Assembly failed to declare future Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] vaccines a global 'public good', they are confirmed as private (intellectual) property and will be subject to patent rights protection as a pharmaceutical product. This confirmation could, however, trigger concerns about access to vaccines on the grounds of public health. [...] This paper examines compulsory licensing and Paragraph 6 of the Doha Declaration on the TRIPS Agreement [Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights] and Public Health as policy alternatives to voluntary licensing for access to affordable future Covid-19 vaccines. With regard to manufacturing capacity, the EU and its member states may not be eligible to import since they opted out of the Paragraph 6 system outright (although they may still export under the same system). Fortunately, this does not appear to be a major problem since statistics show that most EU 27 imports of all pharmaceuticals are from Europe itself, with China a distant second supplier. For China, however, its pharmaceutical-related patent protection measures under the US-China Economic and Trade Agreement on admissibility of supplemental test data and effective patent-term extension are conducive to a predicable multiple patent examination process for streamlined searches and consistent examination results."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Hu, Weinian
2020-07
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Crisis Decision-Making: How Covid-19 Has Changed the Working Methods of the EU Institutions
From the Abstract: "The Covid-19 [coronavirus disease 2019] pandemic has caused the dynamics of the EU institutions to change. Much attention has been paid to the functioning of the EU institutions at the highest political level, but less so at the working levels of the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament (EP). What was the nature of EU action in this time and how well did the decision-making machinery work? This contribution analyses all three main institutions by: a) describing how decisions are usually made; b) exploring how they were made in corona times; and c) assessing how well the individual institutions were equipped and able to adapt to these unusual circumstances. It finds that the handling of these challenges varied greatly across the three institutions, largely because of structural reasons and differences in institutional DNA. Overall, crisis decision-making has worked surprisingly well, as the EU's machinery is multilayered and has proved to be solid and resilient. Interinstitutional crisis coordination is yet to be improved."
Centre for European Policy Studies (Brussels, Belgium)
Russack, Sophia; Fenner, Drew
2020-07
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